1-Minute Day Trading on QQQ: 586 Variants Tested, None Held Up After Costs
Price stretches away from its middle and snaps back — catch that and you are supposed to have a small, reliable edge. We computed…
Thomas Mücke 9 min
Studies
What goes into every analysis
1994
How far back the mandatory filings we read reach — all of them, not a selection by prominence.
100%
of the population instead of a sample. Companies that no longer exist stay in the calculation.
2×
every key figure is computed: once while building the study, once with an explicit brief to refute it.
openly
we publish the result even when it contradicts our own expectation — including the limits of the method.
Martingale on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: 2.94% vs. 10.84%
A preregistered backtest of 216 buy-the-dip rules (a so-called martingale strategy) on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, with data reaching back to…
Thomas Mücke 9 min
Shorting bad earnings: post-earnings-drift backtest loses −1.48% per trade
A preregistered backtest of 8,861 short trades across 2,615 small-cap U.S. stocks (2011-2026): shorting a stock after it dropped at least 10% on a…
Thomas Mücke 12 min
The One-Cent Stop in the Backtest: 0 of 162 Variants Held Up
944 million trading attempts in the US stocks we analysed show: the ultra-tight one-cent stop, a recipe attributed to Dr. David Paul, did not…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
Day-Trading Test: 53 of 58 Variants Failed — and the Gain Came Overnight
Five well-known day-trading recipes — a breakout, an opening gap, intraday momentum, and trend and reversion at the day’s average price — tested against…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
4.6 Points Cheaper, Not One Day Earlier: What the 5-Minute Cross Really Adds to Crash-Reversal Entries
Waiting for the reversal cross on 5-minute candles after a crash buys a clear price advantage — but almost no time advantage. Checked against…
Thomas Mücke 17 min
10 False Alarms per Rally: Why the 5-Minute Death Cross Sells 25% Below the High
Faster is not smarter: the death cross on 5-minute candles exits at a median 25% below the high and ends up 14.7 percentage points…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
The Takeover Backtest: 1,059 Hits, No Reliable Way to Predict Them
Spotting a takeover target before the buyer shows up sounds like the perfect trade: collect the announcement-day premium without having to guess. We first…
Thomas Mücke 11 min
Takeover Backtest Part 3: Three Signals Raise the Odds, None Makes Money
Part 2 of this study failed on scarcity: at a base rate near one percent, a takeover is simply too rare to turn into…
Thomas Mücke 13 min
Davis Double Play Backtest: Cheap and Growing Returns 11.64% a Year — the S&P 500 Returns 14.80%
Between 1947 and 1994 Shelby Cullom Davis turned $50,000 into nearly $900 million — roughly 23 percent a year over 47 years. His recipe…
Thomas Mücke 19 min
The Ten-Baggers: 126 U.S. stocks that rose elevenfold — and what they had in common beforehand
We ran the numbers on 50,545 U.S. stocks across 14 years of trading — including the 32,371 that no longer exist. 126 of them…
Thomas Mücke 18 min
The Qullamaggie Backtest: 4,400 Trades, 50 Years, One Honest Verdict
Kristjan "Qullamaggie" Kullamagi says momentum swing trading has made him over $100 million — a track record backed only by his own broker screenshots,…
Thomas Mücke 18 min
The Signal Hits, the Portfolio Loses: 16 Years of Surge-Signal Backtesting
Our signal backtest proved that our surge patterns find genuine doubler candidates: 7.1 percent against 4.4 percent for random picks, and it held in…
Thomas Mücke 12 min
The Warning Signs Before Bankruptcy — 792 U.S. Cases Since 2005
We examined every mandatory filing by listed U.S. companies since 2005 to find out which warning sign was visible, and how long before the…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Episodic Pivots: An AI Blind-Read 1,499 SEC Filings — And Was Most Wrong When Most Confident
A price gap after an SEC filing looks like the clearest trading signal there is: something obviously just happened. We wanted to know whether…
Thomas Mücke 11 min
Neff Formula Backtest: The Windsor Rule Doesn't Beat the S&P 500 — But Its Ratio Beats a Naive P/E
John Neff ran the Vanguard Windsor Fund ahead of the S&P 500 for 31 years — with a low P/E, moderate earnings growth, and…
Thomas Mücke 17 min
The Graham Enterprising Backtest: The Criteria Don't Beat Their Own Universe
Chapter 15 of "The Intelligent Investor" lays out seven simple screens for the "enterprising investor": a low price-to-earnings ratio, solid liquidity, low debt, stable…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
Phoenix Stock Backtest: Two Recovery Signals Together Beat the Crisis Cohort Most Clearly — and Almost Only for the Larger Names
A genuine phoenix stock has years of losses and at least one hard sign of balance-sheet distress behind it — the share price plays…
Thomas Mücke 19 min
Dilution Brake Backtest: The Heaviest Diluters Fall Well Behind the Market — Minus 7.44% Against 15.02% per Year
Not every share issuance is a warning sign — but the companies that inflate their own share count the most over twelve months fell…
Thomas Mücke 19 min
Should You Only Buy Strong Sectors? What the Sector Tailwind Really Buys You
Stan Weinstein's rule: check the sector before the stock – staring only at one company's chart means seeing the trees, not the forest. We…
Thomas Mücke 7 min
Low-Volatility Backtest: The Calmest Decile Does Not Beat the S&P 500 — But It Beats the Average Stock
The low-volatility anomaly is one of the best-known violations of efficient-market theory: calm stocks are not supposed to underperform risky ones in the long…
Thomas Mücke 13 min
Momentum Backtest: The Typical Winner Returns 2.2% in Six Months, the Middle of the Field 4.3% to 4.6%
The best-known anomaly in market research is also one of the most misread: "buy winners, avoid losers" sounds like a simple rule, but what…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Insider Buying Backtest: 13.42% Against 14.01% — Almost No Lead Survives Costs
Insider cluster buying does not beat the S&P 500: 13.42% against 14.01% per year across 186 months. Before costs four of fifteen buy rows…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
Inflection Family Backtest: Only Revenue Beats the Market
Four metrics, one pattern: the more shapeable a number in the filings, the weaker its buy signal — and only the revenue inflection beats…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
Down-Day Strength Backtest: Best Portfolio Returns 9.80% Against the Index's 14.27%
Stocks that stay green on trading days when both the broad market and their own industry close sharply lower — is that a reliable…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Even FDA Approval Loses: The Median Approved Case Falls 7.9% Over 120 Trading Days
Buying two trading days before an FDA decision is supposed to be the safest moment to catch an approval — the science is finished,…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
On Average a Profit, in the Typical Case a Loss: 438 Buys After Phase 3 Success Reports
A biotech stock reports that its pivotal trial succeeded — and the shares jump. Buying on that news is a bet on what comes…
Thomas Mücke 19 min
AAQS Backtested: 16.95% a Year Since 1993 — and Just 0.77 Percentage Points Ahead Since 2010
The AAQS awards one point for each of ten quality criteria a company meets, ten in total. We rebuilt two mechanical portfolios around that…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
Sector Tailwind Tested: Weinstein Stages Don't Beat a Simple Ranking
Stan Weinstein's rule: check the sector before the stock – the group pulls the individual name along. We rebuilt that thesis as a pre-registered…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
Market Trend Filter Backtest: Buying Only in Uptrends Cuts Returns From 15.51% to 13.01–13.63%
Should you only buy new stocks when the S&P 500 itself is trending up — and simply skip every trade while it isn't, without…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
The Pierpont Backtest: A Filter That Screens Out Too Much
Ryan Pierpont isn't just another trader with self-reported numbers: he placed 3rd in the US Investing Championship in both 2020 and 2021, verified externally…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
R&D Inflection Backtest: A Research Surge Is No Reliable Buy Signal — 10.98% Against 14.82% per Year
A company that has been quiet for years and suddenly ramps up R&D spending by forty percent or more: is that a reliable buy…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Debt Paydown Turnaround Backtest: It Is Not THAT Debt Falls That Matters — It Is HOW It Was Paid Down
Companies that earned their debt mountain back down returned 10.42% a year. Companies that made the same debt mountain disappear by issuing fresh shares…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
The Flag Carries Information, the Recipe Doesn't: The Gajjala Day-Trading Backtest
We mechanically rebuilt the bull-flag setup used by US Investing Championship winner Goverdhan Gajjala and ran it across 22 years and 1,459 trades. Result:…
Thomas Mücke 11 min
Cannibal Turn Backtest: Buyback Beginnings Beat the Market, Habit Does Not — 17.90% Against 15.02% per Year
A company that has issued more and more of its own stock for years, then for the first time starts buying it back and…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Earnings Streak Backtest: Six Rising Quarters Don't Beat the Market — 13.29% Against 15.02% per Year
A company whose earnings per share sit above the year-ago quarter for six consecutive quarters — is that a buy signal? And is the…
Thomas Mücke 17 min
Margin Inflection Backtest: the Signal Doesn't Hold — 2.52 vs. 15.02 Percent a Year
A company whose operating margin, after four quiet quarters, suddenly jumps by several percentage points: is that a better long-term buy than a company…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Cash Flow Inflection Backtest: Acceleration Wins
When a company reports positive free cash flow on a sustained basis for the first time, it is a popular buy trigger — the…
Thomas Mücke 14 min
Cash-Flow Inflection Backtest: The Fresh Inflection Beats the Field — But Not the Index (13.86% Against 15.02% per Year)
Operating cash flow is often called the most honest number in a filing — cash that actually shows up, not a profit figure that…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
Inventory-Sales Gap Backtested: The Arch Beats the Warning Signal — Middle 13.44% Against the Extremes 6.91% and 9.10% per Year
When inventory grows faster than sales, that is a classic fundamental-analysis warning sign — documented in academic research since the 1990s. We tested it…
Thomas Mücke 12 min
Earnings Inflection Backtest: The Fresh Inflection Does Not Beat the Market — 6.76% Against 15.02% per Year
A company whose earnings per share suddenly jump at least 30 percent after four quiet quarters — is that a buy signal? For revenue,…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
Crash Reversal Study: Buying After the Crash Beats the Index — Narrowly, But For Real
A stock crashes, forms a death cross, loses at least a fifth of its value, and finally capitulates with a close well below its…
Thomas Mücke 13 min
Accruals Backtest: Sloan's Paper-Profit Signal Has Been Gone Since 2013
Richard Sloan showed in 1996 that profits made of accounting entries hold up worse than profits made of real cash flow — and that…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
Growth Gems Backtested: 13.17% a Year Since 2000 — and Why the Strictest Rule Loses
Our Growth Gems stock scanner awards one point per criterion met, ten in total. We retested that score rule across the entire US market…
Thomas Mücke 17 min
Parabolic Death Cross Study: What the MA10/MA20 Cross Is Actually Worth After a Parabolic Run
Exit signal yes, short no: a stock rips parabolically higher, then its 10-day moving average crosses back below the 20-day average — the "death…
Thomas Mücke 12 min
Revenue Inflection Backtest: The Fresh Inflection Beats the Established Grower — 16.6% Against 9.9% per Year
A company whose revenue suddenly jumps 30 to 70 percent after four quiet quarters: is it a better buy than one that has been…
Thomas Mücke 16 min
The Signal Holds, the Recipe Doesn't: 22 Years of Backtesting the Velez Open Trade
We rebuilt Oliver Velez's famous opening setup — the first 2-minute candle after the US open — exactly as he describes it, and ran…
Thomas Mücke 9 min
Hypergrowth: One in Four Buys Fires in a Confirmed Downtrend
85 of the 349 organic hypergrowth buys — nearly one in four — fired in the middle of a confirmed downtrend, and that group…
Thomas Mücke 18 min
The Green Line Breakout Backtest: 31,752 All-Time-High Breakouts Since 1962
Dr. Eric Wish publishes his "Green Line Breakout" on the Wishing Wealth Blog: a horizontal green line drawn on the monthly chart at a…
Thomas Mücke 21 min
Organic Hypergrowth: 18.13% a Year — Acquired Hypergrowth Loses Money
We retested the "Triple-Digit Revenue Growth" stock scanner from January 2013 through July 2026 on the US stock market — every delisted company included,…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
The Graham Net-Net Backtest: 26 Years, 19,122 Signals — and No Edge
Benjamin Graham's strictest value rule sounds like value investing in its purest form: buy any stock trading for no more than two-thirds of what…
Thomas Mücke 15 min
The Magic Formula, Retested: 14.48% a Year Since 2000 — Behind the Market Since 2010
We ran Greenblatt's original Magic Formula — earnings yield plus return on capital, top 30, equal-weighted — through a survivorship-free backtest of 22,871 US…
Thomas Mücke 18 min
The Bankruptcy Trio as a Short Strategy — A 2012-2026 Backtest
Our bankruptcy-warning study found a three-signal combination — an unreliable-figures notice, an auditor going-concern opinion, and short-term debt exceeding current assets — that called…
Thomas Mücke 17 min
What makes a study here
The full universe
No selection, no index sample. We run every security that traded during the period under review.
Including the vanished
Companies that went bankrupt or were acquired stay in. Counting only stocks you can buy today produces a flattering picture.
Always with a control group
A finding about winners is worthless without a counter-check. Every study puts a comparable group that did not make it next to the hit list.
Every figure sourced
Metrics come from original regulatory filings, every individual case from named sources. What cannot be substantiated is removed.
Open methodology
Universe, hurdles, exclusions and limitations are in the text — not in the fine print.
The uncomfortable half too
We show not only who won but what happened afterwards. That is the part most compilations leave out.
What we are working on
The next studies are in preparation. If you have a question that data can answer, write to us — the best studies grow out of concrete questions.