Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Running every finding through our materiality gate turns up no existential finding: Affirm is an intact, very fast-growing company with about $2.2 billion in cash, broad funding (about $28 billion in capacity), credit quality that has stayed under control so far, and a first GAAP profit. A "Substance risk" rating, which would signal a threat to the company itself, would be overstated. But the quality isn't confirmed either: the negative findings are a cluster of earnings-quality and structural findings pointing the same direction — a core business still running an operating deficit, a profitability that largely rests on stripped-out stock-based compensation (about 15.5 percent of revenue), and an interest- and default-dependent loan book. The evidence that would resolve this is concrete and observable soon: whether the first profit becomes a lasting GAAP profit without the adjusted crutch, how delinquency rates and the allowance for credit losses develop, and whether the Amazon share falls. The valuation is ambitious on top of that, but it plays no part in this rating: the traffic light judges the company, not the entry price — that is what the metrics scanners are for. As long as the earnings-quality question is open, this stays at "Open questions" — the investment decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Affirm is the U.S. market leader for installment payments at checkout — "Buy Now, Pay Later." Volume grew 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, and 2025 brought the first GAAP profit in company history: $52 million. Sounds like a turning point. But operations still ran a loss, the company's own "Adjusted Operating Income" of $778 million adds back nearly half a billion dollars in stock-based compensation — and the actual business is lending money. We read the filings: credit quality, dilution, the Amazon concentration risk and valuation. Not investment advice — just the arithmetic behind a first profit that spent nearly half a billion dollars to happen.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at AFRM since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 71.50 $ — 58% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIAffirm setzt maschinelles Lernen und Künstliche Intelligenz operativ im Kern des Geschäfts ein — für Bonitätsprüfung, Risikobepreisung und Betrugserkennung an der Kasse. Die Risikomodelle sind laut Geschäftsbericht (10-K FY2025) auf Daten aus über 343 Millionen Krediten trainiert. KI ist bei Affirm also produktives Werkzeug, aber keine eigenständige, ausgewiesene Umsatzquelle: Das Unternehmen verkauft keine KI-Produkte an Dritte, sondern nutzt die Modelle, um sein Ratenkredit-Geschäft (Buy Now, Pay Later) zu betreiben. Damit greift Kategorie 3 (Nutzt KI); ein KI-Umsatzstrom (Kategorie Verkauft) ist in den Filings nicht belegt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our machine learning-based risk models are calibrated and validated on an extensive amount of data from over 343 million loans, and are custom built to effectively detect fraud, price risk, and provide customized recommendations."
Unsere auf maschinellem Lernen basierenden Risikomodelle werden anhand einer umfangreichen Datenbasis aus über 343 Millionen Krediten kalibriert und validiert und sind eigens darauf zugeschnitten, Betrug wirksam zu erkennen, Risiken zu bepreisen und maßgeschneiderte Empfehlungen zu geben.
„By utilizing our unique risk model predicated on sophisticated machine learning algorithms, proprietary data, and product-level underwriting, we can serve consumers across the credit spectrum and price risk across transaction types."
Durch den Einsatz unseres einzigartigen Risikomodells, das auf ausgefeilten Algorithmen des maschinellen Lernens, proprietären Daten und einer Bonitätsprüfung auf Produktebene beruht, können wir Verbraucher über das gesamte Bonitätsspektrum hinweg bedienen und Risiken je nach Transaktionsart bepreisen.
„Our solutions use machine learning, artificial intelligence, cloud-based technologies, and other modern tools to create differentiated and scalable products."
Unsere Lösungen nutzen maschinelles Lernen, Künstliche Intelligenz, cloudbasierte Technologien und weitere moderne Werkzeuge, um differenzierte und skalierbare Produkte zu schaffen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2025-08-28 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · DEF 14A 2025-10-24
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth Score
6 of 10 Solid growthTen checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 33.7% passed
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 25.2% passed
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 6.6% failed
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 57.5% passed
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 67.5% passed
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 4.8% passed
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 7.9 x EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 2,707 m passed
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -0.8% failed
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.3% failed
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 26.7% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 24
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2027 | 3.72 | 2.94 – 4.54 | 5,279 | 20.6% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.33 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.23 | – | 866 | 46.60 | 9.30 | 312 | 268 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.01 | – | 783 | 35.90 | 0.40 | 210 | 157 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.20 | – | 876 | 33.00 | 7.90 | 75 | 24 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.23 | – | 933 | 33.60 | 8.60 | 375 | 320 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.37 | 59.30 | 1,123 | 29.60 | 11.50 | 174 | 118 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.30 | 3,528.90 | 1,039 | 32.60 | 9.90 | 387 | 325 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 264 | -102 | -120 | -0.47 | -93 | -263 | 1,149 |
| 2020 | 510 | -108 | -113 | -0.44 | -71 | -367 | 1,402 |
| 2021 | 870 | -384 | -441 | -1.64 | -193 | 2,576 | 4,867 |
| 2022 | 1,349 | -866 | -707 | -2.51 | -162 | 2,618 | 6,974 |
| 2023 | 1,588 | -1,201 | -985 | -3.34 | 12 | 2,534 | 8,156 |
| 2024 | 2,323 | -616 | -518 | -1.67 | 450 | 2,732 | 9,520 |
| 2025 | 3,224 | -87 | 52 | 0.15 | 794 | 3,069 | 11,155 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
A clear U.S. market leader for "Buy Now, Pay Later" with a strong platform (more than 23 million active consumers, about 377,000 merchants) and top partners including Amazon, Shopify and Walmart. At its core, though, a lender — interest income, at $1.61 billion, is the largest revenue block, not a software fee.
Sustained and documented: gross merchandise volume up 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, revenue up 39 percent to $3.22 billion in fiscal year 2025, continuing with volume up 35 percent in the third quarter of 2026. This is the stock's strongest side.
First GAAP net profit (+$52.2 million in 2025), but still an operating loss of $87.3 million and an accumulated deficit of about $3.1 billion. The company's own headline figure, "Adjusted Operating Income" ($778.1 million), strips out $499.9 million in stock-based compensation — about 15.5 percent of revenue, borne in reality as dilution.
As a lender, Affirm depends on the economic cycle and interest rates: provision for credit losses up 34 percent to $616.7 million, allowance for credit losses risen to 6.0 percent (31.03.2026), 30-day delinquency risen to about 2.8 percent. Under control so far; a 1-percentage-point rate jump is largely hedged, with under $65 million of cash-flow impact.
Concentration risk: Amazon about 22 percent, top-five partners about 47 percent of volume — the growth story hangs on a handful of relationships. On top of that, a dual-class structure: founder Max Levchin controls about 44.4 percent of all votes through shares carrying 15 votes each, management nearly 47 percent.
Price-to-sales ratio around 7, enterprise value about 8.5 times revenue (mid-2026, about $28 billion in market value). Normal for a software company, high for a business that's credit-driven at its core — the market is explicitly paying for the tech narrative, which still needs to be backed by durable GAAP profits.
Affirm is the U.S. market leader for installment payments at checkout and is growing impressively: gross merchandise volume up 81 percent in two years to $36.7 billion, revenue up 39 percent to $3.22 billion in fiscal year 2025. A GAAP net profit showed up in the filing for the first time (+$52.2 million), but operations still ran a loss of $87.3 million, and the company's own "Adjusted Operating Income" metric of $778.1 million adds back $499.9 million in stock-based compensation. The business is, at its core, interest- and default-dependent lending (provision for credit losses up 34 percent), a fifth of volume hangs on Amazon, and at a price-to-sales ratio around 7 the market is paying a growth premium. Strong growth meets a still-fragile, dilution-carried profitability. Not investment advice.
- Materiality gate (10.07.2026) — finding by finding: (1) Operating loss despite the first net profit (−$87.3 million operating, +$52.2 million net, accumulated deficit about $3.1 billion): an earnings-quality finding, not an existential finding, since $2.2 billion in cash and 39 percent revenue growth carry it → a pricing/structural finding that nonetheless leaves the earnings quality unresolved. (2) Dilution from stock-based compensation ($499.9 million, about 15.5 percent of revenue, stripped out in "Adjusted Operating Income"): under the gate, a pricing finding — it does not enter the rating. (3) Credit risk/rate sensitivity (provision up 34 percent to $616.7 million, allowance for credit losses 6.0 percent, 30-day delinquency about 2.8 percent; a 1-percentage-point rate shock hedged below $65 million): currently under control → a pricing/cyclical finding; it would become an existential finding only in a funding or credit crisis (a jump in delinquency, the loss of warehouse facilities). (4) Partner concentration, Amazon at about 22 percent of volume (top five about 47 percent): per the gate's calibration (21 percent = a dent), a dent — the company would stay intact with more than 377,000 merchants → a concentration-risk dent. (5) Valuation (P/S around 7, enterprise value about 8.5× revenue) and dual-class control (Levchin about 44.4 percent of votes): a pricing/structural finding — recorded here, but neither valuation nor voting structure carries any weight in the rating. Result: no existential finding, so no "Substance risk". What stands in the way of confirmed quality is not the price but the unfinished record on substance: profitability that still has to prove durable under GAAP without the adjusted crutch, a delinquency trend that is under control today but not yet tested by a downturn, and the dependence on the Amazon share → "Open questions", tied to exactly these three points. Whether the stock is priced attractively is a separate question; the scanners answer it, not this rating.
- Data basis: annual report (10-K) for fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025; filed August 28, 2025) and quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026 (filed May 7, 2026); non-GAAP figures ("Adjusted Operating Income" $778.1 million, the delinquency series) from the shareholder letters (exhibits to Form 8-K) for the fourth quarter of FY2025 and the third quarter of FY2026. Revenue breakdown FY2025: interest income $1,608.2 million, merchant network revenue $882.7 million, gains on loan sales $381.6 million, card network $231.3 million, servicing income $120.6 million.
- Special-situation screening via the EDGAR submissions index (as of 10.07.2026): no activist Schedule 13D, only passive 13G filings from institutional holders (including Vanguard and BlackRock); no announced takeover, no strategic review. Governance: founder/CEO Max Levchin controls about 44.41 percent of all votes through Class B shares carrying 15 votes each (all directors and officers combined: 46.80 percent); reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada effective 01.07.2025.
- Price and valuation figures are dated mid-2026 (market value about $28 billion on about 294 million outstanding Class A shares plus about 41 million Class B shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Affirm Holdings, Inc. betreibt ein Zahlungsnetzwerk in den USA, Kanada und international.
| Employees | 2,206 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | San Francisco, CA |
| Address | 650 California Street, 94108 San Francisco, United States |
| Phone | 415 960 1518 |
| Website | affirm.com |
| IPO Date | 13. Jan 2021 |
| ISIN | US00827B1061 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Max Roth Levchin | Founder, CEO & Chairman | 1976 |
| Libor Michalek | President & Director | 1974 |
| Robert W. O'Hare | Chief Financial Officer | 1981 |
| Michael A. Linford | Chief Operating Officer | 1983 |
| Katherine Adkins Esq. | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Secretary | 1962 |
| Siphelele Jiyane | Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Zane Keller C.F.A. | Head of Investor Relations | – |
| Brooke E. Major-Reid | Chief Capital Officer | 1975 |
| Wayne Pommen Ph.D. | Chief Revenue Officer | 1979 |
| Pat Suh | Senior Vice President of Revenue | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.