PayPal Holdings Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow, because a material operational question is open and documented: the user base has barely grown in four years (440 million accounts on September 30, 2026 against 435 million at the end of 2022), the take per dollar moved keeps falling ($2.02 per $100 in 2022, $1.76 in the third quarter of 2026), and PayPal guides to GAAP earnings per share below the prior year for 2026. The substance, by contrast, is not in doubt: $6,416 million of operating cash flow in 2025, $15.1 billion of cash and investments against $13.5 billion of debt on September 30, 2026, no going-concern indications — so red would be wrong, and green premature as long as the highest-margin business is not growing again. Re-examined against the figures of October 27, 2026, the rating stays the same; the raised non-GAAP outlook shows progress on costs, not yet growth in branded checkout. The share price plays no part in this rating. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
PayPal is the pass-through trap in pure form: $1.79 trillion of payment volume in 2025 sounds like unstoppable growth, yet only $1.76 of every $100 stays behind (third quarter of 2026) — down from $2.02 in 2022 — and the user base has barely moved at 440 million accounts for four years. In the third quarter of 2026 volume rose 6 percent and revenue 2 percent while operating income and net income fell 8 and 14 percent; that earnings per share slipped only 4 percent is down to the repurchase of roughly 117 million shares in twelve months. PayPal raised only its non-GAAP outlook. The company is financially sound and generates cash, but with its third chief executive in a little over two years, a quantified yet unproven savings program and a class action about branded checkout growth, it stands at an open point. Not investment advice.
Business model & substance
A network of 440 million active accounts (September 30, 2026) and millions of merchants carried $1.79 trillion of payment volume in 2025. The business produced $6,416 million of operating cash flow in 2025 against only $852 million of capital expenditure, and $5,233 million of net income. Nobody rebuilds a network like that overnight.
User base growth
Active accounts stood at 440 million on September 30, 2026, against 438 million a year earlier and 435 million at the end of 2022 — a little over 1 percent in close to four years. Volume growth comes from higher frequency (60.8 payments per account over twelve months) and from unbranded card processing: Braintree alone added roughly $400 million of revenue in the second quarter of 2026.
Margin per dollar moved
Of every $100 passed through, PayPal kept $2.02 in 2022, $1.85 in 2025 and $1.76 by calculation in the third quarter of 2026. In the third quarter volume rose 6 percent, while revenue and the company-reported transaction margin dollars rose 2 percent each; operating margin fell from 18.1 percent to 16.3 percent. For 2026 PayPal guides to GAAP earnings per share of about $5.07 after $5.41.
Capital allocation
The buyback is enormous and real — roughly 117 million shares for $6.0 billion in the twelve months to September 30, 2026, with the share count down from 1,136 million (end of 2022) to 837 million. It is also a counterweight to equity compensation: the quarterly report names dilution offset as the first purpose, and the 2026 plan authorizes up to 83.7 million shares. On top of that, 2025 purchases averaged $69.94 per share against $44.99 in the first half of 2026.
Balance sheet & finances
$15.1 billion of cash and investments against $13.5 billion of debt as of September 30, 2026, equity of $19,483 million, and $237 million of first-half interest expense against $2,915 million of operating income. No going-concern language, no auditor change, no listing risk. Caveat: $10,968 million of that equity is goodwill from old acquisitions.
Leadership & legal
Enrique Lores has led the company since March 1, 2026 as the third chief executive in a little over two years; Alex Chriss left on February 2, 2026 after less than two and a half years. The consolidated class action "In re PayPal Branded Checkout Securities Litigation" (May 21, 2026) alleges the company concealed impediments to branded checkout growth. The reorganization is meant to save at least $1.5 billion a year from April 2026; so far it shows up mainly as cost — $178 million of restructuring charges in the third quarter of 2026.
Worth Noting
PayPal reached the research list through the SEC filing stream: the current report (Form 8-K) of February 3, 2026 announcing the change at the top. The figures rest on the quarterly report (10-Q) as of June 30, 2026, filed July 28, 2026, the earnings release of the same day, and the annual reports (10-K) for 2023 through 2025. Update of October 27, 2026: the third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K of October 27, 2026) is incorporated; the 10-Q for September 30, 2026 had not been filed at that point, and no call transcript could be found.
The measure "revenue per $100 of payment volume" is our own calculation: annual revenue divided by the payment volume stated in the respective annual report. That volume is disclosed rounded to $10 billion, so the derived values are accurate to two decimal places. "Transaction margin dollars" is a company-defined, non-GAAP measure and not a line in the income statement.
Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: market capitalization of roughly $46 billion on October 26, 2026 (837 million shares per the September 30, 2026 balance sheet x $54.99 closing price); at first publication on August 11, 2026 it was roughly $51 billion (862 million x $59.00). Daily prices are not a buy argument. Not to be confused: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is the parent; Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Honey and Paidy are subsidiaries, not separately listed companies.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at PYPL since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 39.10 $ to 69.30 $ · Last price: 58.80 $ (As of: November 2, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/31/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Credit Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL | 50.7 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 40.5 | 17.0 | 4.3 | -15.1 |
| Visa Inc. Class A V | 804.6 | 38.0 | 25.6 | 97.7 | 67.4 | 11.3 | 25.9 |
| Mastercard Inc MA | 582.5 | 39.3 | 25.6 | 100.0 | 60.8 | 16.4 | 20.0 |
| American Express Company AXP | 224.6 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 21.3 | 8.4 | -8.1 |
| Capital One Financial Corporation COF | 129.8 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 28.6 | 28.4 | -2.7 |
| Synchrony Financial SYF | 26.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 48.0 | -7.9 | 4.1 |
| Affirm Holdings Inc AFRM | 24.8 | 67.1 | 24.9 | 48.9 | 8.5 | 38.8 | 6.6 |
| SoFi Technologies Inc. SOFI | 20.9 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 83.7 | 18.3 | 82.6 | -42.3 |
| Ally Financial Inc ALLY | 11.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 21.0 | -25.8 | 2.1 |
| Median of companies shown | 50.7 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 97.7 | 21.3 | 11.3 | 2.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,842 | 1,586 | 1,401 | 1.15 | 3,158 | 14,712 | 33,103 |
| 2017 | 13,094 | 2,127 | 1,795 | 1.47 | 2,531 | 15,994 | 40,774 |
| 2018 | 15,451 | 2,194 | 2,057 | 1.71 | 5,483 | 15,386 | 43,332 |
| 2019 | 17,772 | 2,719 | 2,459 | 2.07 | 4,561 | 16,929 | 51,333 |
| 2020 | 21,454 | 3,289 | 4,202 | 3.54 | 6,219 | 20,063 | 70,379 |
| 2021 | 25,371 | 4,262 | 4,169 | 3.52 | 5,797 | 21,727 | 75,803 |
| 2022 | 27,518 | 3,837 | 2,419 | 2.09 | 5,813 | 20,274 | 78,717 |
| 2023 | 29,771 | 5,028 | 4,246 | 3.84 | 4,843 | 21,051 | 82,166 |
| 2024 | 31,797 | 5,325 | 4,147 | 3.99 | 7,450 | 20,417 | 81,611 |
| 2025 | 33,172 | 6,065 | 5,233 | 5.41 | 6,416 | 20,256 | 80,173 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | 1.20 | -7.70 | 7,847 | 5.80 | 12.90 | 1,614 | 1,445 |
| 2024: Q4 | 1.10 | -14.70 | 8,366 | 4.20 | 13.40 | 2,394 | 2,191 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.29 | 55.40 | 7,791 | 1.20 | 16.50 | 1,160 | 964 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.29 | 19.40 | 8,288 | 5.10 | 15.20 | 898 | 692 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.30 | 8.30 | 8,417 | 7.30 | 14.80 | 1,974 | 1,718 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.53 | 39.10 | 8,676 | 3.70 | 16.60 | 2,384 | 2,190 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.21 | -6.20 | 8,353 | 7.20 | 13.30 | 1,134 | 903 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.25 | -3.10 | 8,682 | 4.80 | 12.70 | 1,983 | 1,775 |
| 2026: Q3 | 1.25 | -3.80 | 8,584 | 2.00 | 12.50 | 1,592 | 1,431 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 4 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 5.39 | 5.29 – 5.74 | 34,741 | 1.5% | 42 |
| 12/31/2027 | 5.77 | 5.31 – 6.08 | 36,215 | 7.1% | 43 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -5.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $6.59B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $50.75B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $3.70B |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 38.5% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 0.8% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
PayPal setzt KI und maschinelles Lernen operativ ein — Betrugsabwehr, Risikosteuerung, Produktoptimierung, Kundenservice — und macht die beschleunigte KI-Einführung zum Kern eines Sparprogramms über mindestens 1,5 Mrd. US-Dollar; KI ist damit Werkzeug, aber keine eigene Umsatzquelle. Delta-Prüfung 27.10.2026 (Ergebnismitteilung Q3 2026): keine neue KI-Aussage, Kategorie unverändert.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We use AI and machine learning technologies in various aspects of our business, including fraud prevention, risk management, product optimization and customer service."
Wir setzen KI- und Technologien des maschinellen Lernens in verschiedenen Bereichen unseres Geschäfts ein, unter anderem bei der Betrugsprävention, im Risikomanagement, bei der Produktoptimierung und im Kundenservice.
10-K · 2026-02-03 · View SEC filing
„This strategic reorganization and business simplification program, which will focus on realigning our operating structure and accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence and automation across the company, is expected to deliver at least $1.5 billion in gross annualized run-rate savings over the next two to three years."
Dieses Programm zur strategischen Neuordnung und Vereinfachung des Geschäfts, das sich auf die Neuausrichtung unserer Betriebsstruktur und die beschleunigte Einführung von künstlicher Intelligenz und Automatisierung im gesamten Unternehmen konzentriert, soll in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren Bruttoeinsparungen von mindestens 1,5 Mrd. US-Dollar auf Jahresbasis erbringen.
10-Q · 2026-07-28 · View SEC filing
„by expanding and launching capabilities that allow consumers to shop in and pay wherever they want to make a purchase — online, in-person and through artificial intelligence (“AI”) agents"
indem wir Funktionen ausbauen und einführen, die es Verbrauchern erlauben, überall dort einzukaufen und zu bezahlen, wo sie einen Kauf tätigen möchten — online, im Laden und über Agenten mit künstlicher Intelligenz (‚KI‘)
10-K · 2026-02-03 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 8-K 2026-10-27 · 10-Q 2026-07-28 · 10-Q 2026-05-05 · 10-K 2026-02-03 · 10-Q 2025-10-28 · 10-Q 2025-07-29 · 10-K 2025-02-04
Rated on October 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 6.4%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -73.8%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -5.8%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 21.1%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 46.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 13.6%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 435 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 5,083 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 18.0%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
8/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 13.2%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 4.5%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 16.1%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 3.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -0.1x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 10.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 57.0%
- ROCE > 15% 18.0%
- Expected return > 10% 14.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Keller Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Sell | 732 | 55.37 | 40,531 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Other | 907 | 56.10 | 50,883 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Other | 1,639 | 0.00 | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Other | 1,291 | 56.10 | 72,425 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Other | 2,727 | 0.00 | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Webster Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | Other | 3,883 | 56.10 | 217,836 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Webster Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | Other | 2,622 | 0.00 | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Webster Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | Other | 5,900 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S | Chief Fin & Op Officer | Other | 6,129 | 54.03 | 331,150 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S | Chief Fin & Op Officer | Other | 2,910 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
- Employees
- 23,800
- Headquarters
- San Jose, CA
- Address
- 2211 North First Street, 95131 San Jose, United States
- Phone
- 408 967 7000
- Website
- paypal.com
- IPO Date
- 02/01/2002
- ISIN
- US70450Y1038
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Enrique J. Lores | President, CEO & Director | 1966 |
| Jamie S. Miller | Chief Financial & Operating Officer and Executive VP | 1969 |
| Frank Keller | President of Checkout Solutions & PayPal | 1974 |
| Suzan Bulyaba Kereere | President of Global Markets | 1966 |
| Christopher Natali | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1978 |
| Srinivasan Venkatesan | Chief Technology Officer | 1971 |
| Steven Eric Winoker | Chief Investor Relations Officer | – |
| Bimal Patel | Chief Legal Officer | – |
| Amy Bonitatibus | Chief Corporate Affairs & Communications Officer | – |
| Antonio J. Lucio | Chief Marketing & Corporate Affairs Officer | 1959 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: November 2, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.