Mastercard Inc (MA)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
The quality is documented: a 57.6 percent operating margin and 45.6 percent net margin in 2025, operating cash flow of $17,648 million above reported profit, interest coverage of about 26 times, $10.6 trillion of volume processed, and a second business that already carries 40.6 percent of net revenue at $13,315 million and grows faster than the core network. No going-concern warning, no negative equity, no existential dependence on a single counterparty, no accounting or governance breach. The thin equity of $6,722 million (March 31, 2026) results from $87,342 million of share repurchases rather than over-indebtedness — it is supported by $2,999 million of quarterly cash flow and $7,906 million of cash. The burdensome findings — an incentive ratio above 50 percent, self-funded interchange litigation with over $5 billion of single damages outstanding, goodwill exceeding equity, regulation of the core price — are serious, but operational, legal and regulatory in nature, and they do not threaten the substance. Separately stands the price question: at roughly 33 times trailing earnings (data as of July 30, 2026) the stock is expensively paid for. That is a valuation argument, not a quality argument — and it does not change the rating. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Mastercard reported net revenue of $32,791 million for 2025. Of that, $13,315 million — 40.6 percent — came from fraud prevention, data services and consulting rather than the card network. And the network itself handed $20,522 million, more than half its gross revenue, back to its own customers. Time to relabel the drawer.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 30, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MA since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 573.10 $ — 80% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIMastercard verkauft KI-Produkte als eigene Erloesquelle innerhalb der Kategorie Mehrwertdienste — fortgeschrittene Analytik- und KI-Loesungen mit eigenen KI-Modellen und Analyse-Software, KI-gestuetzte Personalisierungsdienste, Beratung mit agentischen Loesungen sowie der 2025 gestartete Zahlungsrahmen Mastercard Agent Pay fuer KI-Agenten; diese Kategorie erloeste 2025 netto 13.315 Mio. US-Dollar oder 40,6 Prozent des Konzern-Nettoerloeses.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Advanced analytics and AI solutions consisting of proprietary and privacy-first data solutions, AI models and analytics software designed to power strategy optimization, business experimentation and transformation, as well as risk management to address complex business challenges and unlock new value."
Fortgeschrittene Analytik- und KI-Loesungen, bestehend aus eigenen und datenschutzorientierten Datenloesungen, KI-Modellen und Analyse-Software, die Strategieoptimierung, geschaeftliches Experimentieren und Transformation sowie Risikomanagement unterstuetzen sollen, um komplexe geschaeftliche Herausforderungen zu bewaeltigen und neuen Wert zu erschliessen.
„We launched Mastercard Agent Pay, a new framework designed to enable secure, scalable and trusted payments in agentic commerce. The solution enables AI-assisted and fully automated agent-based payments across Mastercard's acceptance network."
Wir haben Mastercard Agent Pay eingefuehrt, einen neuen Rahmen, der sichere, skalierbare und vertrauenswuerdige Zahlungen im agentischen Handel ermoeglichen soll. Die Loesung ermoeglicht KI-gestuetzte und vollstaendig automatisierte, von Agenten ausgeloeste Zahlungen im gesamten Akzeptanznetz von Mastercard.
„Personalization services, which leverage AI to help businesses provide personalized digital experiences for their customers."
Personalisierungsdienste, die KI nutzen, um Unternehmen dabei zu helfen, ihren Kunden personalisierte digitale Erlebnisse zu bieten.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-30 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-07-31 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2026-02-11 · 10-K 2025-02-12
Rated on July 30, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable Solid but selectiveAcross the ten calls from 2023-Q4 to 2026-Q1, Mastercard met or beat every revenue outlook it gave, both quarterly and annually, and with the same CEO and CFO throughout. The language is remarkably stable over the whole period, and management volunteers uncomfortable detail as well, such as how much of the 2025 outperformance came from foreign exchange volatility. What stands out is something else: several loudly announced initiatives drop out of the calls after one or two quarters without ever being completed or cancelled. And on the question analysts press hardest, the revenue effect of losing the Capital One debit portfolio, no number is given for five quarters.
10 calls reviewed, 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Ten quarters of guidance, ten quarters delivered
The 2024 mark set in 2023-Q4, net revenue growth at the high end of a low double-digit rate, was met with 11 percent in 2024-Q1, 13 in 2024-Q2, 14 in 2024-Q3 and 16 percent in 2024-Q4. For 2025, the range given in 2024-Q4 ran from the high end of low double digits to low teens, was narrowed to the top end in 2025-Q2, and was beaten at roughly 14 to 15 percent excluding acquisitions. Every single quarterly outlook across the ten calls was met or beaten as well. For 2026 the high end of a low double-digit range applies again since 2025-Q4; 2026-Q1 delivered 12 percent, with the second quarter explicitly set lower because of the Middle East conflict.
Where the 2025 beats came from
In 2025-Q1 transaction processing assessments grew 17 percent while the underlying switched transactions grew only 9 percent; in 2025-Q2 the comparison was 18 percent against 10 percent. In both quarters the CFO named revenue from foreign exchange volatility as the main driver, a factor he says he cannot predict. In 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 the same effect turned into a drag and was flagged just as openly, which is why the 2026 outlook assumes a weaker first half. The company therefore discloses this item in both directions, which speaks for its candour but puts the quality of the strong 2025 quarters into perspective.
The multi-token network drops out of the story
In 2024-Q4 the CEO introduced the multi-token network as the company's own answer to the lack of interoperability in blockchain payments, complete with a partnership with JPMorgan's blockchain unit. In 2025-Q1 it was mentioned once more, together with the admission that it had not scaled yet and that the economic model was still open. In the four following calls from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1 it does not appear a single time. Instead, in 2026-Q1 the planned acquisition of the provider BVNK is justified precisely by the argument that it closes the interoperability gap in digital assets. No call explains what became of the in-house network, and no analyst asked.
Capital One: five quarters without a number
Since 2024-Q4 it has been known that Capital One is moving its debit business to the Discover network. In 2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q4 analysts asked directly about the size of the revenue effect; the answer was always that the best estimate had been built into the outlook, without quantifying it. In 2025-Q3 the refusal became explicit: the company would not size the 2026 amount, and an offset from contractual obligations would fall away in 2027. The scale only became visible in the volume data: in 2025-Q4 US debit volume grew just 2 percent after 11 percent a year earlier, and in 2026-Q1 by 1 percent instead of an adjusted 7 percent. A revenue figure has still not been given.
Two restructurings without a savings target, plus a one-off
In 2024-Q2 management announced a reorganisation with a special charge of about 190 million US dollars; in 2025-Q4, after a strategic review, a second one of about 200 million affecting roughly 4 percent of the workforce. The rationale was almost word for word the same both times: freeing up capacity to invest. No savings figure was ever named, and no later call checked whether the first reorganisation delivered what it promised; no analyst asked in any of the calls either. On top of that comes a one-off: in 2025-Q4, government grants secured in late December improved operating expense growth by about 5.5 percentage points to 12 percent, even though the benefit represents the full-year value of 2025.
Topics that quietly leave the calls
A pattern runs through the calls: in 2024-Q1 the CEO declared the US merchant settlement done and called it a very good outcome; one quarter later, in 2024-Q2, the court had rejected it, and across the eight following calls through 2026-Q1 the case was never mentioned again. The same goes for the pledge given in 2024-Q2 to phase out manual card entry in European e-commerce by 2030: in 2024-Q4 it was widened to a global goal with no date, in 2025-Q2 it was last backed by progress figures, and since then it has not been named. The three-year objectives given at the November 2024 investor day are referenced six times in later calls but never tracked against progress.
Management promises
-
2023-Q4 kept
Process the first domestic transactions in China within six months of the November 2023 licence.
Narrowed to May 2024 in 2024-Q1 and confirmed as live since May in 2024-Q3. Deadline met, though the revenue contribution stayed small per 2025-Q1 and was never quantified.
-
2024-Q2 kept
The reorganisation is to deliver positive operating leverage over the long term, with revenue growing faster than costs.
In 2024, 2025 and in 2026-Q1 revenue grew faster than adjusted operating expenses each time. In the 2025-Q4 quarter, however, that only worked thanks to the government grants.
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2024-Q2 open
Replace manual card entry in European e-commerce with one-click checkout by 2030.
Last progress update in 2025-Q2, with over 50 percent of European e-commerce transactions tokenised at the time. Not a word in 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4 or 2026-Q1, even though the deadline is running.
-
2024-Q4 kept
2025 net revenue growth from the high end of low double digits to low teens, excluding acquisitions and currency-neutral.
Excluding acquisitions the four quarters of 2025 delivered roughly 16, 15, 14 and 14 percent, above the company's own range. In 2025-Q2 the range was narrowed to the top end and met on that basis too.
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2025-Q3 kept
The migration of the Capital One debit portfolio will be completed during 2026.
Reported as basically complete in 2026-Q1. The additional headwind announced for 2027, when the contractual offsets fall away, is still ahead.
-
2025-Q4 open
2026 net revenue growth at the high end of a low double-digit range, currency-neutral and excluding inorganic activity.
2026-Q1 delivered 12 percent and the full-year target was confirmed, but the second quarter was set at the low end. The confirmation rests explicitly on the assumption that the Middle East conflict ends in the second quarter.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 15.2% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 42
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 19.90 | 19.64 – 20.20 | 37,248 | 17.0% | 34 |
| 12/31/2027 | 22.96 | 22.22 – 23.56 | 41,902 | 15.4% | 39 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 3.64 | 22.30 | 7,489 | 14.40 | 44.60 | 4,834 | 4,584 |
| 2025: Q1 | 3.59 | 11.40 | 7,250 | 14.20 | 45.20 | 2,380 | 2,221 |
| 2025: Q2 | 4.07 | 16.20 | 8,133 | 16.80 | 45.50 | 4,603 | 4,563 |
| 2025: Q3 | 4.34 | 23.00 | 8,602 | 16.70 | 45.70 | 5,663 | 5,485 |
| 2025: Q4 | 4.52 | 24.30 | 8,806 | 17.60 | 46.10 | 4,935 | 4,823 |
| 2026: Q1 | 4.35 | 21.10 | 8,398 | 15.80 | 46.20 | 2,999 | 2,845 |
| 2026: Q2 | 4.97 | 22.10 | 9,277 | 14.10 | 47.30 | 3,773 | 3,482 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,776 | 5,761 | 4,059 | 3.69 | 4,484 | 5,684 | 18,675 |
| 2017 | 12,497 | 6,622 | 3,915 | 3.65 | 5,555 | 5,568 | 21,329 |
| 2018 | 14,950 | 7,282 | 5,859 | 5.60 | 6,223 | 5,395 | 24,860 |
| 2019 | 16,883 | 9,664 | 8,118 | 7.94 | 8,183 | 5,991 | 29,236 |
| 2020 | 15,301 | 8,081 | 6,411 | 6.37 | 7,224 | 6,391 | 33,584 |
| 2021 | 18,884 | 10,082 | 8,687 | 8.76 | 9,463 | 7,312 | 37,669 |
| 2022 | 22,237 | 12,264 | 9,930 | 10.23 | 11,195 | 6,298 | 38,724 |
| 2023 | 25,098 | 14,008 | 11,195 | 11.83 | 11,980 | 6,929 | 42,448 |
| 2024 | 28,167 | 15,582 | 12,874 | 13.89 | 14,780 | 6,485 | 48,081 |
| 2025 | 32,791 | 19,514 | 14,968 | 16.67 | 17,401 | 7,737 | 54,157 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Value-added services — fraud prevention, identity verification, data services, consulting — rose from $9,274 million (2023) to $13,315 million (2025) and from 36.9 to 40.6 percent of net revenue; the first quarter of 2026 reached 41.1 percent. They sit further from interchange regulation and can be sold stand-alone (10-K 2025, Note 3).
Of $32,791 million in net revenue, 2025 left $18,897 million of operating income (57.6 percent) and $14,968 million of net income (45.6 percent). Operating cash flow of $17,648 million exceeded reported profit on just $489 million of capital expenditure. Interest coverage about 26 times (period ended December 31, 2025).
The payment network returned $20,522 million as rebates and incentives in 2025 and kept $19,476 million — 51.3 percent of network gross revenue, after 50.4 percent in 2024 and 53.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026. One percentage point equals roughly $400 million. Mastercard names no target, and the auditor treats the item as a critical audit matter.
As of March 31, 2026, $87,342 million of treasury stock stood against total equity of $6,722 million on total assets of $52,449 million (12.8 percent). No substance risk — cash of $7,906 million and quarterly cash flow of $2,999 million — but the buffer comes from the income statement rather than the balance sheet. Price-to-book and return on equity are unusable as a result.
Unlike Visa, Mastercard has no escrow fund: under the 2011 agreements it pays 12 percent of a global settlement or 36 percent of a settlement involving only the banks, out of its own accounts. Open items include over $5 billion of single damages sought by Block and Intuit, over $0.5 billion from six opt-outs with trial from September 2026, over £1 billion in the United Kingdom, plus claims in Portugal and the Netherlands. Accrual: $339 million (10-Q, Note 14).
Three of the 23 percentage points of value-added services growth in 2025 came from acquisitions; goodwill and intangibles totaled $15,020 million as of March 31, 2026, more than twice equity. Add the planned $1.5 billion BVNK purchase. On the pricing side regulators decide: conflicting U.S. rulings on Regulation II (August and September 2025), New Zealand caps from May 2026, an EU information request on network fees.
Mastercard earns money on card payments worldwide without carrying credit risk, and in 2025 it kept almost 46 cents of every reported dollar as profit. But four of every ten net revenue dollars no longer come from the network — they come from fraud prevention, data services and consulting — and within the network $20,522 million went back to its own customers as incentives, more than half of gross revenue. This company's safety sits in $17,648 million of cash flow, not in $6,722 million of equity. Not investment advice.
- Hook: stocktaking of the 100 largest U.S. stocks by market capitalization as of July 28, 2026. Mastercard sat at number 18 with no analysis. No scanner hit.
- Data as of: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (filed April 30, 2026), Forms 10-K for 2025 and 2024, the Form 8-K earnings release of April 30, 2026 and the Form 8-K of June 8, 2026 (notes offering). Fundamental data as of July 30, 2026. Second-quarter 2026 figures were not available at press time.
- Fiscal year confusion: Mastercard's fiscal year ends December 31, Visa's September 30. Quarterly comparisons between the two are offset by one quarter.
- Incentive ratio confusion: the 51.3 percent applies to payment network gross revenue, not the whole group. Mastercard discloses incentives only for that category; Visa's 28.3 percent applies to group gross revenue. The figures are not directly comparable.
- Price-to-book (74) and return on equity (232 percent) are arithmetic artifacts of equity almost fully absorbed by repurchases and are not usable for valuation.
- Mastercard discloses no separate revenue line for cross-border payments, only the gross fee metric ("cross-border assessments", $12,021 million in 2025). A comparison with Visa's cross-border revenue line is therefore not like for like.
About the Company
Mastercard Incorporated ist ein Technologieunternehmen, das Transaktionsabwicklung und andere zahlungsbezogene Produkte und Dienste in den USA und international anbietet. Es bietet Produkte und Dienste für Kontoinhaber, Händler, Finanzinstitute, digitale Partner und Unternehmen.
| Employees | 39,800 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Purchase, NY |
| Address | 2000 Purchase Street, 10577 Purchase, United States |
| Phone | 914 249 2000 |
| Website | mastercard.com |
| IPO Date | 25. May 2006 |
| ISIN | US57636Q1040 |
| Stock Split | 10:1 on 01/22/2014 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Miebach | CEO, President & Director | 1968 |
| Sachin Mehra | Chief Financial Officer | 1971 |
| Timothy Henry Murphy J.D. | Vice Chair | 1968 |
| Edward Grunde McLaughlin | President & CTO of Mastercard Technology | 1966 |
| Craig E. Vosburg | Chief Services Officer | 1967 |
| Linda Pistecchia Kirkpatrick | President of the Americas | 1977 |
| Sandra A. Arkell | Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 1968 |
| Richard R. Verma Ph.D. | Chief Administrative Officer | 1973 |
| Devin Corr | Executive Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Tiffany M. Hall | General Counsel | 1979 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 1,089 | 538.82 | 586,772 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 3,431 | 538.09 | 1,846,192 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 2,510 | 536.95 | 1,347,736 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 6,159 | 534.66 | 3,292,970 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 3,440 | 533.75 | 1,836,091 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 160 | 531.63 | 85,060 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 1,108 | 530.67 | 587,986 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Sell | 1,903 | 529.45 | 1,007,541 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | McLaughlin Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Other | 19,800 | 227.25 | 4,499,550 |
| 15. Jul 2026 | Arkell Sandra A | Controller | Sell | 144 | 540.00 | 77,760 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.