Target Hospitality Corp.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever holds this today is betting that the roughly $2.0 billion order book is 2023-quality revenue — where 61 cents of every dollar became EBITDA — rather than 2025-quality revenue, where 17 cents did, and that the $200–210 million needed to switch it on arrives without painful dilution. Whoever buys today makes that same bet at 32 times trough earnings, within 3 percent of the high, after a 156 percent run, and alongside an owner who sold 8,050,000 shares at $14.00 in April 2026 and another 8,050,000 at $17.00 in May 2026, giving up his majority. The proof is checkable and it is not far away: the quarter in which revenue and gross profit finally rise together. Until it prints, the price is ahead of the accounts. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Target Hospitality lost the customer that was 62 percent of its 2023 revenue — and has since signed about $2.0 billion of contracted minimum revenue, including a $750 million community for AI infrastructure and a $550 million data center hub. The order book is real and, unlike the lost contract, protected by termination fees. The catch is what the last replacement was worth: revenue minus 43 percent but adjusted EBITDA minus 85 percent, a $173.7 million profit turned into a $37.1 million loss, because high-margin lease income gave way to low-margin construction work — and the new contracts start in that same front end, with $200–210 million of capital going out first against $5.5 million of cash. At about 32 times trough earnings the market has already booked the good margin. Not investment advice.
Business model & asset base
A vertically integrated network of 16,991 beds in places where no hotel would ever pencil out — modular, relocatable and interchangeable across segments, with customers on multi-year contracts carrying minimum revenue amounts. By the company's account the only provider with the scale and regional density to serve all of its customers' needs in its key regions (annual report 10-K 2025).
Earnings quality after the contract loss
Revenue fell 43 percent from 2023 to $320.6 million (2025) — but adjusted EBITDA fell 85 percent to $53.2 million and net income swung from plus $173.7 million to a $37.1 million loss. The annual report names the cause itself: high-margin PCC lease revenue was replaced by low-margin construction services revenue. Q1 2026 repeated the pattern: revenue plus 4.1 percent, gross profit down from $18.0 million to $6.9 million.
Order book & pivot
About $2.0 billion of contracted minimum revenue against $320.6 million of 2025 revenue — including the AI Infrastructure Community (more than $750 million over 48 months, signed May 2026) and the Data Center Hub in North Texas (about $550 million, options to January 2035). Signed with terms and bed counts in the filings, and this time protected: the AI contract carries termination fees compensating invested capital — the protection the PCC contract lacked. Caveat: spread over four to five years, that is roughly $400–500 million a year, not a fivefold company.
Contract & customer risk
Two government agreements ended inside twelve months (STFRC 08/09/2024; PCC 02/21/2025, three months after an option was exercised). The DIPC contract — over $246 million to March 2030 — is subject to annual U.S. government appropriations and cancellable for convenience on 60 days' notice. Concentration persists: three customers at 28/11/11 percent, top five about 63 percent of 2025 revenue, with new exposure to a concentrated group of hyperscale technology customers.
Balance sheet & funding of the build
Deliberately cleaned up first: $181.4 million of 10.75 percent notes redeemed in March 2025 (about $19.5 million of annual interest saved), Altman Z-score of 6.66 in the safe zone. But the build is re-levering it: $30 million drawn on the revolver in Q1 2026, $45.5 million of capex in three months, and $200–210 million more required for the AI community (about 95 percent in 2026) against $5.5 million of cash and $145 million of undrawn capacity — with the filing stating it "cannot assure" financing on commercially reasonable terms and naming equity issuance as an option.
Valuation & signals
About $1.70 billion of market value equals roughly 5.3 times 2025 revenue and about 32 times 2025 adjusted EBITDA (July 16, 2026) — a growth multiple on trough earnings, after plus 156.2 percent year to date and within about 3 percent of the 52-week high. Our scanner's 16 hits are almost exclusively momentum lists (RS 96, stage 2) against a fundamental grade of D, an EPS rating of 12 and a Piotroski score of 4 of 9 (data as of July 8, 2026). And the best-informed holder sold twice: TDR Capital placed 8,050,000 shares at $14.00 in April 2026, weeks before the $750 million AI contract was announced, and another 8,050,000 at $17.00 closing May 29, 2026 — its stake fell from about 65 percent to 46.2 percent by June 18, 2026.
Worth Noting
TH reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 4 mentions in 24 hours, as of July 16, 2026) — notable mainly for the silence: a 156 percent rally running without forum hype. The 16 hits in our in-house stock scanner carry the July 8, 2026 data cut-off and rotate daily.
Data discrepancy, disclosed for transparency: our scanner row carries a price of $20.20 and a market capitalization of $2.0 billion (cut-off July 8, 2026), while the quote on July 16, 2026 stands at $17.05 (about $1.70 billion on 99,585,466 shares). Valuation statements in the text use the July 16, 2026 figures; scanner metrics are dated to July 8, 2026. Where sources disagree, the SEC filings take precedence.
Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure defined by the company and reconciled in the annual report 10-K 2025; it is used here because management steers by it and it makes the margin shift visible. The Altman Z-score of 6.66 reflects the near-absence of debt after the March 2025 note redemption and should not be read as a profitability signal.
The decisive contracts are not in the 2025 annual report: the AI Infrastructure Contract (more than $750 million, May 2026) appears only in Note 17 "Subsequent Events" of the quarterly report as of March 31, 2026 and is explicitly not reflected in those financial statements; the Data Center Hub, West Texas Power and Pecos Power contracts were signed in March 2026. Order-book figures are contracted minimum revenue over full initial terms of roughly four to five years — not annual revenue, and not booked earnings.
Ownership update (checked July 27, 2026): after a second secondary offering — 7,000,000 shares at $17.00 plus the full 1,050,000 over-allotment, closing May 29, 2026 — and in-kind distributions of 1,203,134 shares (May 28) and 1,344,460 shares (June 18, 2026), TDR Capital holds 45,978,409 shares, or 46.2 percent, per the Schedule 13D/A of June 22, 2026. It is no longer the majority owner. All SEC filings through July 6, 2026 were reviewed; nothing further was filed up to July 27, 2026.
Price and valuation figures are dated (about $17.05, market value roughly $1.70 billion, July 16, 2026); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at TH since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 6.20 $ to 20.80 $ · Last price: 20.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Specialty Business Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Hospitality Corp. TH | 2.1 | – | 46.7 | 31.9 | -19.7 | -17.0 | 141.4 |
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | 79.2 | 42.9 | 26.6 | 50.7 | 23.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Copart Inc CPRT | 27.4 | 18.7 | 13.2 | 49.0 | 37.5 | 9.7 | -36.4 |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | 23.4 | 31.5 | 10.9 | 64.0 | 12.5 | -23.8 | 1.4 |
| RB Global Inc. RBA | 15.7 | 39.2 | 13.7 | 45.8 | 18.0 | 9.0 | -27.9 |
| Aramark Holdings ARMK | 14.9 | 43.9 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 53.5 |
| UL Solutions Inc. ULS | 13.0 | 26.3 | 15.9 | 50.4 | 18.4 | 6.4 | -3.1 |
| Dolby Laboratories DLB | 5.4 | 24.2 | 13.8 | 87.6 | 29.1 | 5.9 | -17.7 |
| Amentum Holdings Inc. AMTM | 5.0 | 34.0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 71.6 | -9.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 14.9 | 32.7 | 13.8 | 49.0 | 18.0 | 6.4 | -3.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 149 | 40 | 27 | 0.66 | 45 | 311 | 424 |
| 2017 | 134 | 21 | 1 | 0.02 | 41 | 242 | 242 |
| 2018 | 241 | 41 | 5 | 0.12 | 26 | 349 | 565 |
| 2019 | 321 | 48 | 12 | 0.13 | 61 | 123 | 601 |
| 2020 | 225 | 4 | -25 | -0.26 | 47 | 99 | 534 |
| 2021 | 291 | 37 | -5 | -0.05 | 105 | 97 | 513 |
| 2022 | 502 | 174 | 74 | 0.74 | 306 | 201 | 772 |
| 2023 | 564 | 241 | 174 | 1.65 | 157 | 377 | 694 |
| 2024 | 386 | 109 | 71 | 0.70 | 152 | 421 | 726 |
| 2025 | 321 | -28 | -37 | -0.37 | 74 | 389 | 530 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.20 | -54.50 | 101 | -29.90 | 18.30 | 39 | 32 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.22 | -52.20 | 95 | -34.80 | 21.00 | 31 | 24 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.13 | -55.20 | 84 | -33.70 | 14.90 | 31 | 30 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.07 | -135.00 | 70 | -34.50 | -9.20 | 4 | -13 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.15 | -175.00 | 62 | -38.80 | -24.20 | 11 | -6 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.01 | -104.50 | 99 | 4.40 | -0.80 | 53 | 37 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.15 | -215.40 | 90 | 7.30 | -16.60 | 6 | -12 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.10 | -42.90 | 73 | 4.10 | -17.80 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.09 | 40.00 | 86 | 38.80 | -10.50 | 104 | 96 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 23 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
- Bullish Reversal Bar
- Gap-Up (≥3%)
- Oliver Kell: Gappers
- Pradeep Bonde: $ Breakout Bullish
- Qullamaggie: Episodic Pivot
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- Kathy Donnelly: Liquid Movers Up
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Oliver Kell: Doublers
- Oliver Kell: Strength on Down Day
- Power Trend
- RS Leader (≥90)
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
- Strength on Stress Days
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.03 | -0.05 – 0.00 | 439 | 86.4% | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.91 | 0.83 – 1.07 | 751 | 3,060.5% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 9.8% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $89.0M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.08B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $227.0M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 57.6% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 28.9% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Target Hospitality verkauft keine KI-Technologie, sondern Wohn- und Versorgungscamps — aber KI-getriebene Infrastruktur-Nachfrage ist laut den Berichten eine dokumentierte und inzwischen dominierende Umsatzquelle: Im Mai 2026 schloss das Unternehmen einen 48-Monats-Vertrag über mehr als 750 Mio. $ für eine „AI Infrastructure Community“ ab (mehr als das Doppelte des Konzernumsatzes 2025 von 320,6 Mio. $), dazu im März 2026 den Data Center Hub in Nordtexas (ca. 550 Mio. $) und die West Texas Power Community (ca. 129 Mio. $) zur Versorgung eines „hyperscale AI-driven data-center development“. Das Management beziffert den adressierbaren Markt inkl. „AI infrastructure“ auf rund 18 Mrd. $; die Risk Factors nennen die KI-Investitionen der Rechenzentrumsbetreiber ausdrücklich als Nachfragetreiber UND als konkretes Geschäftsrisiko, falls sie ausbleiben. Einstufung analog zum Picks-and-Shovels-Präzedenzfall AAOI: KI-Nachfrage als belegte Umsatzquelle schlägt (Vorrangregel) die Bedroht-Lesart. Kein Beleg für operativen KI-Einsatz im eigenen Betrieb.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In May 2026, the Company executed a 48-month contract, expected to generate more than $750 million of revenue for a workforce housing community supporting approximately 3,370 individuals with accommodations and customized hospitality solutions for AI infrastructure development (“AI Infrastructure Community” or “AI Infrastructure Contract”)."
Im Mai 2026 schloss das Unternehmen einen 48-monatigen Vertrag ab, der voraussichtlich mehr als 750 Mio. $ Umsatz erbringen wird, für eine Arbeiterunterkunfts-Siedlung für rund 3.370 Personen mit Unterbringung und maßgeschneiderten Hospitality-Lösungen für den Aufbau von KI-Infrastruktur („AI Infrastructure Community“ bzw. „AI Infrastructure Contract“).
10-Q · 2026-05-11 · View SEC filing
„Management estimates the potential total addressable market opportunity for integrated workforce hospitality solutions supporting data center development, AI infrastructure, critical mineral development, and power generation projects to be approximately $18 billion."
Das Management schätzt den potenziellen adressierbaren Gesamtmarkt für integrierte Workforce-Hospitality-Lösungen zur Unterstützung von Rechenzentrums-Entwicklung, KI-Infrastruktur, Erschließung kritischer Mineralien und Kraftwerksprojekten auf rund 18 Mrd. $.
10-K · 2026-03-11 · View SEC filing
„Demand for our services is also sensitive to the capital spending on data center infrastructure to support artificial intelligence (“AI”) applications, which has seen rapid expansion in recent years. There is no assurance that such expansion will continue."
Die Nachfrage nach unseren Dienstleistungen reagiert zudem empfindlich auf die Investitionsausgaben für Rechenzentrums-Infrastruktur zur Unterstützung von Anwendungen der Künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“), die in den vergangenen Jahren rasant gewachsen sind. Es gibt keine Gewissheit, dass sich diese Expansion fortsetzt.
10-K · 2026-03-11 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-11 · 10-K 2026-03-11
Rated on July 16, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -13.9%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -69.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.2%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -15.0%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 4.1%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 7.7%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.0 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 175 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -6.3%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 3.5%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 8.9%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 53.1%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 53.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -12.0%
- ROCE > 15% -6.3%
- Expected return > 10% 53.5%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Archer James Bradley | Director and CEO and President | Buy | 13,385 | 18.69 | 250,166 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | TDR Capital II Investments LP | 10% Owner | Other | 16,100,000 | 17.71 | 285,131,000 |
The company
About the Company
Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. It operates through Hospitality & Facilities Services " South, Workforce Hospitality Solutions, and Government segments. The company owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units. It also provides catering and food, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation facilities, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services. In addition, the company offers construction services. It serves the U.S. government contractors and investment grade natural resource development companies. Target Hospitality Corp. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
- Employees
- 902
- Headquarters
- The Woodlands, TX
- Address
- 9320 Lakeside Boulevard, 77381 The Woodlands, United States
- Phone
- 800 832 4242
- Website
- targethospitality.com
- IPO Date
- 07/25/2013
- ISIN
- US87615L1070
- Stock Split
- 5:1 on 09/06/2012
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| James Bradley Archer | CEO, President & Non-Independent Director | 1971 |
| Jason Paul Vlacich | Chief Financial Officer | 1979 |
| Troy C. Schrenk | Executive VP of Operations & Chief Commercial Officer | 1975 |
| Heidi Diane Lewis J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1973 |
| Brendan Dowhaniuk | Executive Vice President of Strategy & Corporate Development | 1989 |
| Cyril J. Hahamski | Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Mark Schuck CPA | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Financial Planning | – |
| Scott John | Senior Vice President of Marketing & CX | – |
| Andrew A. Aberdale | Advisor | 1966 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/09/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 09/01/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Regulation FD Disclosure SEC ↗
- 08/26/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/10/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/05/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/27/2026 Target Hospitality Corp. (TH): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.