MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The balance sheet gives no cause for concern: $440.0 million of cash as of March 31, 2026, no interest-bearing debt, an equity ratio of 96.7 percent and a runway the company itself puts "into 2029" — there is no sign of a threat to substance. Green would still be wrong: the business model has never produced a dollar of revenue, and the result of the coming years hangs on a single event — the Phase 3 trial of canvuparatide, which is only due to start in the third quarter of 2026 and whose primary endpoint is assessed at week 26. On top of that sits an open leadership question: both executive seats were refilled within five months, immediately before that trial. This is exactly what the yellow level exists for — a serious company with one large open operational question. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
MBX Biosciences ranks 8th in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (U.S. selection, as of July 25, 2026). The peptide company from Carmel, Indiana has never booked a dollar of product revenue since 2018, yet it has raised $688.8 million. We read the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the Form 10-K for 2025 and every filing since: a full, debt-free balance sheet, a sales agreement for another $250 million, and a management team replaced twice in five months. Here is what the filings say — and what they leave open.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MBX since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 30 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 65.90 $ — 99% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralIn den sechs ausgewerteten Berichten (2 Geschäftsberichte 10-K, 4 Quartalsberichte 10-Q) kommt künstliche Intelligenz ausschließlich als allgemeiner Risikohinweis vor — kein KI-Produkt, kein KI-Umsatz und kein belegter operativer Einsatz; die Wirkstoff-Plattform beruht auf Peptidchemie, nicht auf Rechenmodellen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We may choose to integrate AI into our operations both in our own development and implementation of AI and through the adoption of commercially available tools, and this innovation presents risks and challenges that could affect its adoption, and therefore our business."
Wir könnten uns dafür entscheiden, KI in unseren Betrieb einzubinden — sowohl durch eigene Entwicklung und Einführung von KI als auch durch die Übernahme handelsüblicher Werkzeuge; diese Neuerung bringt Risiken und Herausforderungen mit sich, die ihre Einführung und damit unser Geschäft beeinträchtigen könnten.
„The use of new and evolving technologies, such as artificial intelligence (“AI”) in our operations may require us to expend material resources and may present risks and challenges that can impact our business including by posing security and other risks to our confidential information, proprietary information and personal information, any of which may result in reputational harm and liability, or otherwise adversely affect our business."
Der Einsatz neuer und sich entwickelnder Technologien wie künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“) in unserem Betrieb kann von uns erhebliche Mittel erfordern und Risiken und Herausforderungen mit sich bringen, die unser Geschäft beeinträchtigen können — unter anderem durch Sicherheits- und andere Risiken für unsere vertraulichen, geschützten und personenbezogenen Informationen, was jeweils zu Rufschädigung und Haftung führen oder unser Geschäft anderweitig beeinträchtigen kann.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-03-12 · 10-K 2025-03-17 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-12
Rated on July 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 22.0% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 5
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.71 | -3.22 – -2.32 | 0 | -14.0% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | -3.62 | -3.95 – -3.17 | 0 | -33.3% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.68 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.47 | – | 0 | – | -7,020.70 | -16 | -16 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.71 | – | 0 | – | – | -23 | -23 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.58 | – | 0 | – | – | -17 | -18 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.63 | – | 0 | – | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.60 | – | 0 | -100.00 | – | -18 | -19 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.50 | – | 0 | – | – | -20 | -21 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | -25 | -26 | -0.82 | -23 | -43 | 45 |
| 2023 | 0 | -35 | -33 | -1.02 | -32 | -72 | 84 |
| 2024 | 0 | -68 | -62 | -1.85 | -55 | 257 | 269 |
| 2025 | 0 | -98 | -87 | -2.38 | -80 | 369 | 385 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
In the controlled Phase 2 Avail trial, 63 percent of treated patients (30 of 48) met the primary endpoint at twelve weeks against 31 percent on placebo (5 of 16), p=0.042. The one-year read-out of June 12, 2026 showed 57 percent (31 of 54), improved kidney function and urine calcium in the normal range.
As of March 31, 2026 the company held $440.0 million in cash and marketable securities against $14.9 million of liabilities and not a single interest-bearing debt; the equity ratio was 96.7 percent. Operating activities consumed $20.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, and management's own runway estimate reads "into 2029."
Not one dollar of product revenue since inception in 2018; the accumulated deficit stood at $248.0 million as of March 31, 2026. The Phase 3 trial is not due to start until the third quarter of 2026 and its primary endpoint is assessed at week 26 — product revenue is not to be expected before the end of the decade.
The share count rose from 33,421,525 (December 31, 2024) to 47,597,536 (May 4, 2026), roughly 42 percent in 17 months. In February 2026 MBX sold 2,250,986 shares into the market at a volume weighted average of $38.76; since March 2026 a sales agreement for up to $250.0 million stands ready, plus 4,857,747 potentially dilutive securities.
Both executive seats were refilled within five months: chief financial officer Richard Bartram left effective March 15, 2026 and co-founder Kent P. Hawryluk effective July 13, 2026. The new chief executive Steven Hoerter previously chaired the board and has not been considered an independent director since his consulting agreement of May 2026.
Roughly $2.95 billion of market value ($62.00 on July 24, 2026) stands against $437.8 million of stockholders' equity as of March 31, 2026 — 6.75 times book value. Price-earnings and price-sales ratios do not exist for lack of profit and revenue. Five of five analyst opinions were positive as of July 25, 2026, with an average price target of $77.
MBX Biosciences develops extended-release peptide drugs and has raised roughly $688.8 million since it was founded in 2018 — without ever booking a dollar of product revenue. Lead candidate canvuparatide worked cleanly in Phase 2: 63 percent response at twelve weeks against 31 percent on placebo, and 57 percent at one year. The balance sheet is unusually clean, with $440.0 million of cash and no interest-bearing debt. Against that stand a registration trial that has yet to begin, a competing product already approved, a share count up roughly 42 percent plus a sales agreement for another $250.0 million, and a complete turnover of the management team within five months. Not investment advice.
- MBX reached our research list as rank 8 of 28 U.S. hits in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (as of July 25, 2026, relative strength rating 97) — part of our series filling the top 50 of that ranking with analyses. The scanner lists are recalculated daily, so the rank can move.
- What the scanner measures: at least 15 percent price gain over four trading days, average dollar volume of at least $10 million a day and a relative strength rating of at least 70; the list is sorted by relative strength rating. Those are pure price criteria and say nothing about the quality of the company.
- Risk of confusion: the symbol MBX also belongs to Microbix Biosystems on the Toronto Stock Exchange — likewise a biotechnology company — and to My Foodie Box on the ASX. Every figure in this analysis comes from the Nasdaq security with ISIN US55287L1017 and SEC identifier CIK 0001776111; reporting and listing currency is the U.S. dollar.
- Ratio trap: the Piotroski F-Score and the Altman Z-Score barely apply to a company without revenue and without debt — one is pushed down (3 of 9) because four of its criteria require profit or a profit margin, the other distorted upward (110.7) because there are almost no liabilities to offset.
- Recency note: the most recent periodic report is the Form 10-Q filed May 7, 2026. Every filing after that date has been reviewed — the Current Reports on Form 8-K of May 11, June 5 and June 12, 2026 and of July 13, 2026, plus ownership and insider filings. The management change of July 13, 2026 alters the picture and is reflected throughout. There is no takeover, no merger and no delisting.
About the Company
MBX Biosciences, Inc., ein biopharmazeutisches Unternehmen in der klinischen Phase, konzentriert sich auf die Entdeckung und Entwicklung von Präzisions-Peptidtherapien zur Behandlung endokriner und metabolischer Störungen.
| Employees | 63 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Carmel, IN |
| Address | 11711 North Meridian Street, 46032 Carmel, United States |
| Phone | 317 659 0200 |
| Website | mbxbio.com |
| IPO Date | 13. Sep 2024 |
| ISIN | US55287L1017 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Salomon Azoulay M.D. | Chief Medical Officer | 1958 |
| Pete De Spain | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications | – |
| Michelle Graham | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1967 |
| Michael A. Dorato DABT, Ph.D. | Sr. Vice President of Discovery & Non-Clinical Development | – |
| Chatan Charan Ph.D. | Senior VP of Pharmaceutical Development & Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls | – |
| Mark Hope | Senior Vice President of Regulatory & Quality | – |
| Andreas Moraitis M.D. | Senior Vice President of Clinical Development | – |
| Karen Basbaum M.B.A. | Chief Business Officer | – |
| Mark R. Soued M.B.A. | Chief Commercial Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.