MBX Biosciences, Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The balance sheet gives no cause for concern: $440.0 million of cash as of March 31, 2026, no interest-bearing debt, an equity ratio of 96.7 percent and a runway the company itself puts "into 2029" — there is no sign of a threat to substance. Green would still be wrong: the business model has never produced a dollar of revenue, and the result of the coming years hangs on a single event — the Phase 3 trial of canvuparatide, which is only due to start in the third quarter of 2026 and whose primary endpoint is assessed at week 26. On top of that sits an open leadership question: both executive seats were refilled within five months, immediately before that trial. This is exactly what the yellow level exists for — a serious company with one large open operational question. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
MBX Biosciences develops extended-release peptide drugs and has raised roughly $688.8 million since it was founded in 2018 — without ever booking a dollar of product revenue. Lead candidate canvuparatide worked cleanly in Phase 2: 63 percent response at twelve weeks against 31 percent on placebo, and 57 percent at one year. The balance sheet is unusually clean, with $440.0 million of cash and no interest-bearing debt. Against that stand a registration trial that has yet to begin, a competing product already approved, a share count up roughly 42 percent plus a sales agreement for another $250.0 million, and a complete turnover of the management team within five months. Not investment advice.
Clinical data
In the controlled Phase 2 Avail trial, 63 percent of treated patients (30 of 48) met the primary endpoint at twelve weeks against 31 percent on placebo (5 of 16), p=0.042. The one-year read-out of June 12, 2026 showed 57 percent (31 of 54), improved kidney function and urine calcium in the normal range.
Balance sheet and liquidity
As of March 31, 2026 the company held $440.0 million in cash and marketable securities against $14.9 million of liabilities and not a single interest-bearing debt; the equity ratio was 96.7 percent. Operating activities consumed $20.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, and management's own runway estimate reads "into 2029."
Earning power
Not one dollar of product revenue since inception in 2018; the accumulated deficit stood at $248.0 million as of March 31, 2026. The Phase 3 trial is not due to start until the third quarter of 2026 and its primary endpoint is assessed at week 26 — product revenue is not to be expected before the end of the decade.
Dilution
The share count rose from 33,421,525 (December 31, 2024) to 47,597,536 (May 4, 2026), roughly 42 percent in 17 months. In February 2026 MBX sold 2,250,986 shares into the market at a volume weighted average of $38.76; since March 2026 a sales agreement for up to $250.0 million stands ready, plus 4,857,747 potentially dilutive securities.
Leadership and oversight
Both executive seats were refilled within five months: chief financial officer Richard Bartram left effective March 15, 2026 and co-founder Kent P. Hawryluk effective July 13, 2026. The new chief executive Steven Hoerter previously chaired the board and has not been considered an independent director since his consulting agreement of May 2026.
Valuation
Roughly $2.95 billion of market value ($62.00 on July 24, 2026) stands against $437.8 million of stockholders' equity as of March 31, 2026 — 6.75 times book value. Price-earnings and price-sales ratios do not exist for lack of profit and revenue. Five of five analyst opinions were positive as of July 25, 2026, with an average price target of $77.
Worth Noting
MBX reached our research list as rank 8 of 28 U.S. hits in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (as of July 25, 2026, relative strength rating 97) — part of our series filling the top 50 of that ranking with analyses. The scanner lists are recalculated daily, so the rank can move.
What the scanner measures: at least 15 percent price gain over four trading days, average dollar volume of at least $10 million a day and a relative strength rating of at least 70; the list is sorted by relative strength rating. Those are pure price criteria and say nothing about the quality of the company.
Risk of confusion: the symbol MBX also belongs to Microbix Biosystems on the Toronto Stock Exchange — likewise a biotechnology company — and to My Foodie Box on the ASX. Every figure in this analysis comes from the Nasdaq security with ISIN US55287L1017 and SEC identifier CIK 0001776111; reporting and listing currency is the U.S. dollar.
Ratio trap: the Piotroski F-Score and the Altman Z-Score barely apply to a company without revenue and without debt — one is pushed down (3 of 9) because four of its criteria require profit or a profit margin, the other distorted upward (110.7) because there are almost no liabilities to offset.
Recency note: the most recent periodic report is the Form 10-Q filed May 7, 2026. Every filing after that date has been reviewed — the Current Reports on Form 8-K of May 11, June 5 and June 12, 2026 and of July 13, 2026, plus ownership and insider filings. The management change of July 13, 2026 alters the picture and is reflected throughout. There is no takeover, no merger and no delisting.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MBX since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 9.90 $ to 70.70 $ · Last price: 63.90 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBX Biosciences, Inc. MBX | 2.9 | – | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | – | 542.8 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 130.6 | 31.3 | 24.5 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 33.4 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 82.0 | 19.9 | 13.1 | 44.5 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 35.5 |
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 62.7 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 532.3 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 61.9 | 38.1 | 34.2 | 59.1 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 30.9 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 40.9 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 338.3 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 40.0 | 63.1 | 34.1 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 6.4 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc ALNY | 32.6 | 61.8 | 28.4 | 79.7 | 23.0 | 65.2 | -48.1 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 32.5 | 31.8 | 19.6 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 68.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 40.9 | 34.9 | 19.6 | 57.0 | 20.7 | 7.3 | 35.5 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | -25 | -26 | -0.82 | -23 | -43 | 45 |
| 2023 | 0 | -35 | -33 | -1.02 | -32 | -72 | 84 |
| 2024 | 0 | -68 | -62 | -1.85 | -55 | 257 | 269 |
| 2025 | 0 | -98 | -87 | -2.38 | -80 | 369 | 385 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.47 | – | 0 | – | -7,020.70 | -16 | -16 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.71 | – | 0 | – | – | -23 | -23 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.58 | – | 0 | – | – | -17 | -18 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.63 | – | 0 | – | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.60 | – | 0 | -100.00 | – | -18 | -19 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.50 | – | 0 | – | – | -20 | -21 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.78 | -34.50 | – | – | – | -23 | -24 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 31 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
- Insider Buying (Net)
- Institutional + Insiders Building Positions
- Institutional Accumulation
- Pros 80%
Breakout & Setup
- ATH
- Bullish Reversal Bar
- Oops Reversal
- Pradeep Bonde: $ Breakout Bullish
- Strong DCR (≥80)
- Tight & Near High
- Tight Weekly Range (WCR≥90)
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- High ADR (≥5%)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Near 52-Week High
- Power Trend
- Qullamaggie: Top Gainers 1M
- Qullamaggie: Trend Intensity (13/65)
- RS Leader (≥90)
- RS New Highs
- Richard Moglen: 1 Week Top Performers
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -3.11 | -3.54 – -2.91 | 0 | -30.6% | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | -3.96 | -4.50 – -3.64 | 0 | -27.3% | 9 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
In den sechs ausgewerteten Berichten (2 Geschäftsberichte 10-K, 4 Quartalsberichte 10-Q) kommt künstliche Intelligenz ausschließlich als allgemeiner Risikohinweis vor — kein KI-Produkt, kein KI-Umsatz und kein belegter operativer Einsatz; die Wirkstoff-Plattform beruht auf Peptidchemie, nicht auf Rechenmodellen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We may choose to integrate AI into our operations both in our own development and implementation of AI and through the adoption of commercially available tools, and this innovation presents risks and challenges that could affect its adoption, and therefore our business."
Wir könnten uns dafür entscheiden, KI in unseren Betrieb einzubinden — sowohl durch eigene Entwicklung und Einführung von KI als auch durch die Übernahme handelsüblicher Werkzeuge; diese Neuerung bringt Risiken und Herausforderungen mit sich, die ihre Einführung und damit unser Geschäft beeinträchtigen könnten.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„The use of new and evolving technologies, such as artificial intelligence (“AI”) in our operations may require us to expend material resources and may present risks and challenges that can impact our business including by posing security and other risks to our confidential information, proprietary information and personal information, any of which may result in reputational harm and liability, or otherwise adversely affect our business."
Der Einsatz neuer und sich entwickelnder Technologien wie künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“) in unserem Betrieb kann von uns erhebliche Mittel erfordern und Risiken und Herausforderungen mit sich bringen, die unser Geschäft beeinträchtigen können — unter anderem durch Sicherheits- und andere Risiken für unsere vertraulichen, geschützten und personenbezogenen Informationen, was jeweils zu Rufschädigung und Haftung führen oder unser Geschäft anderweitig beeinträchtigen kann.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-03-12 · 10-K 2025-03-17 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-12
Rated on July 26, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 0.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 4.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") no data
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion no data
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 373 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 15 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -26.5%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 2.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
1/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% –
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% –
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -23.6%
- ROCE > 15% -26.5%
- Expected return > 10% –
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Azoulay Salomon | Chief Medical Officer | Sell | 370 | 65.77 | 24,335 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Smither John W | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 28,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Hoerter Steven L. | President and CEO | Other | 71,000 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
MBX Biosciences, Inc., ein biopharmazeutisches Unternehmen in der klinischen Phase, konzentriert sich auf die Entdeckung und Entwicklung von Präzisions-Peptidtherapien zur Behandlung endokriner und metabolischer Störungen.
- Employees
- 63
- Headquarters
- Carmel, IN
- Address
- 11711 North Meridian Street, 46032 Carmel, United States
- Phone
- 317 659 0200
- Website
- mbxbio.com
- IPO Date
- 09/13/2024
- ISIN
- US55287L1017
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Steven L. Hoerter | Executive Chairperson, CEO & President | 1971 |
| Salomon Azoulay M.D. | Chief Medical Officer | 1958 |
| John W. Smither CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 1953 |
| Pete De Spain | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications | – |
| Michelle Graham | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1967 |
| Michael A. Dorato DABT, Ph.D. | Sr. Vice President of Discovery & Non-Clinical Development | – |
| Chatan Charan Ph.D. | Senior VP of Pharmaceutical Development & Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls | – |
| Mark Hope | Senior Vice President of Regulatory & Quality | – |
| Andreas Moraitis M.D. | Senior Vice President of Clinical Development | – |
| Karen Basbaum M.B.A. | Chief Business Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/27/2026 MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX): Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/06/2026 MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/13/2026 MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.