Moderna Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The substance is there as of the reporting date: $6,761 million of equity, $6,910 million of cash and investments, no going-concern language in the quarterly report as of June 30, 2026, and the loan is small at $591 million of carrying value against that liquidity. That is why this is not a red light. It is yellow all the same, because the decisive operating question stays open: whether a pipeline with nine ongoing oncology trials and several regulatory filings turns back into a self-carrying business will be settled by data readouts that are still ahead — the norovirus candidate already missed its interim analysis on July 31, 2026. Until then the company pays for research out of reserves that shrank 29 percent in six months. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Moderna today is a research organization with a small selling business, funded out of the savings of two exceptional years. The technology is proven, the earning power is not: $145 million of quarterly revenue faces $651 million of research expense (second quarter of 2026). Cash of $6,910 million (06/30/2026) buys time, but it shrinks on plan, and the appeal, the credit covenants and pipeline readouts can all shorten the clock. Not investment advice.
Platform and approvals
Moderna carried mRNA from idea to approved mass-market medicine — five products are approved (Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, mCOMBRIAX and, since 08/05/2026, mFLUSIVA), and the second quarter of 2026 added approvals in Australia, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan (earnings release 8-K of 07/31/2026). The manufacturing base is built and paid for: $2,059 million of property and equipment as of 06/30/2026.
Revenue base
Of $19,263 million (2022), $1,944 million (2025) is left. The second quarter of 2026 brought $145 million against $142 million in the prior-year quarter — flat at a low level. The 114 percent half-year gain came from government deliveries, not from a broader market (10-Q as of 06/30/2026).
Cost structure
Research costs a multiple of what the business brings in: $651 million of research expense against $145 million of revenue in the second quarter of 2026. For full-year 2026 the company itself plans about $2.9 billion of research and about $1.0 billion of selling, general and administrative expense (guidance of 07/31/2026) — against a revenue target of at most 10 percent above 2025.
Cash position
At $6,910 million as of 06/30/2026 the cash box is well filled, and the company expects $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion at year-end 2026. But the direction is unambiguous: down $1,225 million in six months, plus the $950 million settlement paid in July. Two pandemic years left retained earnings of $5,098 million (06/30/2026), after $7,223 million half a year earlier.
Financing structure
Since November 2025 substantially all assets secure a facility of up to $1.5 billion at 9.20 percent interest (06/30/2026, Note 11 of the 10-Q). A company with $6.9 billion of liquidity that grants collateral of that reach is buying headroom at a steep price.
Open legal exposure
The settlement with Arbutus and Genevant cost $950 million (paid July 2026). The pending appeal can add up to $1.3 billion — with no accrual as of 06/30/2026. Alongside it run proceedings with Pfizer/BioNTech, GSK, CureVac, Sanofi subsidiaries, Northwestern University and Bayer/Monsanto (Note 12 of the 10-Q).
Worth Noting
Hook: the stock appeared on the most-discussed list of the wallstreet-online forum on August 5, 2026. This analysis grew out of that, not out of a price move.
Data as of: all balance sheet and income figures come from the quarterly report (10-Q) as of June 30, 2026 (filed July 31, 2026), the annual reports (10-K) for 2025 and 2023, and the earnings release of July 31, 2026. The approval of the flu vaccine mFLUSIVA on August 5, 2026 comes from the company press release and is not yet reflected in any figure in this analysis. Market capitalization and analyst consensus: data as of August 6, 2026.
Easy to confuse: "mRNA" is the abbreviation for messenger ribonucleic acid and at the same time Moderna's ticker symbol MRNA. Other mRNA companies such as BioNTech or CureVac trade under different symbols.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MRNA since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 22.40 $ to 174.40 $ · Last price: 158.10 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 62.7 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 532.3 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 130.6 | 31.3 | 24.5 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 33.4 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 82.0 | 19.9 | 13.1 | 44.5 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 35.5 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 61.9 | 38.1 | 34.2 | 59.1 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 30.9 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 40.9 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 338.3 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 40.0 | 63.1 | 34.1 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 6.4 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc ALNY | 32.6 | 61.8 | 28.4 | 79.7 | 23.0 | 65.2 | -48.1 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 32.5 | 31.8 | 19.6 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 68.6 |
| Roivant Sciences Ltd ROIV | 28.0 | – | 0.7 | -9,610.9 | -14,675.1 | -71.6 | 161.7 |
| Median of companies shown | 40.9 | 34.9 | 19.6 | 55.0 | 20.7 | 5.1 | 35.5 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 108 | -224 | -216 | -0.58 | 67 | 842 | 1,417 |
| 2017 | 206 | -269 | -256 | -0.68 | -331 | 625 | 1,084 |
| 2018 | 123 | -413 | -385 | -4.74 | -331 | 1,530 | 1,962 |
| 2019 | 48 | -546 | -514 | -1.55 | -459 | 1,175 | 1,589 |
| 2020 | 274 | -763 | -747 | -1.96 | 2,027 | 2,561 | 7,337 |
| 2021 | 17,736 | 13,296 | 12,202 | 28.31 | 13,620 | 14,145 | 24,669 |
| 2022 | 18,875 | 9,420 | 8,362 | 20.10 | 4,981 | 19,123 | 25,858 |
| 2023 | 6,848 | -4,239 | -4,714 | -12.34 | -3,118 | 13,854 | 18,426 |
| 2024 | 3,199 | -3,945 | -3,561 | -9.27 | -3,004 | 10,901 | 14,142 |
| 2025 | 1,944 | -3,074 | -2,822 | -7.25 | -1,873 | 8,650 | 12,338 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -2.91 | -629.50 | 956 | -66.00 | -117.20 | 825 | 303 |
| 2025: Q1 | -2.52 | – | 107 | -35.90 | -907.50 | -1,037 | -1,164 |
| 2025: Q2 | -2.13 | – | 142 | -35.70 | -581.00 | -919 | -922 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.51 | -1,674.00 | 1,016 | -45.20 | -19.70 | -847 | -880 |
| 2025: Q4 | -2.11 | – | 678 | -29.10 | -121.80 | 951 | 912 |
| 2026: Q1 | -3.40 | – | 389 | 263.60 | -345.20 | -630 | -692 |
| 2026: Q2 | -1.97 | 7.50 | 145 | 2.10 | -539.30 | -526 | -563 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 1 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -8.38 | -10.55 – -6.66 | 2,101 | -15.7% | 20 |
| 12/31/2027 | -4.79 | -7.11 – -2.73 | 2,438 | 46.8% | 20 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Moderna verkauft keine KI-Produkte, setzt KI aber durchgängig operativ ein: ein eigenes Kapitel „Digital and AI Strategy“ im Geschäftsbericht, vollautonome KI-Algorithmen in der Fertigung der individuell hergestellten Krebstherapie intismeran autogene und KI als ausdrücklich benanntes Mittel zur Kostensenkung.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Leveraging over a decade of experience developing mRNA medicines, we have built a large library of data that, combined with our platform approach and cloud-native infrastructure, positions us well to scale a digital operating model using artificial intelligence (AI)."
Auf der Grundlage von mehr als einem Jahrzehnt Erfahrung in der Entwicklung von mRNA-Medikamenten haben wir eine große Datenbibliothek aufgebaut, die uns zusammen mit unserem Plattform-Ansatz und unserer Cloud-nativen Infrastruktur in die Lage versetzt, ein digitales Betriebsmodell mit künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) zu skalieren.
10-K · 2026-02-20 · View SEC filing
„Our manufacturing processes likewise utilize the power of AI. For example, we leverage a series of fully autonomous, integrated AI algorithms in connection with manufacturing intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157). Our machine-learning based algorithms design the specific therapy for each individual patient and optimize the timely manufacture and delivery of intismeran to each patient."
Auch unsere Fertigungsprozesse nutzen die Kraft der KI. So setzen wir bei der Herstellung von intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) eine Reihe vollständig autonomer, integrierter KI-Algorithmen ein. Unsere auf maschinellem Lernen beruhenden Algorithmen entwerfen die spezifische Therapie für jeden einzelnen Patienten und optimieren die rechtzeitige Herstellung und Auslieferung von intismeran an jeden Patienten.
10-K · 2026-02-20 · View SEC filing
„We plan to leverage our global production network, artificial intelligence (AI) and digital tools to improve cost efficiency."
Wir planen, unser globales Produktionsnetz, künstliche Intelligenz (KI) und digitale Werkzeuge zu nutzen, um die Kosteneffizienz zu verbessern.
10-K · 2026-02-20 · View SEC filing
„Our ongoing work on our intismeran autogene, norovirus, and flu plus COVID combination vaccine candidates, our other oncology programs, development of any new COVID vaccines against variants of SARS-CoV-2, late-stage clinical development, investments in digital capabilities and artificial intelligence technologies, and buildout of global commercial, regulatory, sales and marketing infrastructure and manufacturing facilities will require significant cash outflows in future periods, most of which will not be reimbursed or otherwise paid for by our collaborators or alliances."
Unsere laufenden Arbeiten an den Impfstoffkandidaten intismeran autogene, Norovirus und Grippe-plus-COVID-Kombination, unsere weiteren Onkologie-Programme, die Entwicklung neuer COVID-Impfstoffe gegen SARS-CoV-2-Varianten, die späte klinische Entwicklung, Investitionen in digitale Fähigkeiten und Technologien der künstlichen Intelligenz sowie der Aufbau globaler kommerzieller, regulatorischer, Vertriebs- und Marketing-Infrastruktur und von Fertigungsanlagen werden in künftigen Perioden erhebliche Mittelabflüsse erfordern, von denen der größte Teil nicht von unseren Kooperationspartnern oder Allianzen erstattet oder anderweitig bezahlt wird.
10-Q · 2026-07-31 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-31 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-K 2026-02-20 · 10-K 2025-02-21
Rated on August 6, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -53.1%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 20.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -2.2%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -145.5%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 55.4%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.4%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 3,883 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 3,102 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -29.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 7.3%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 37.8%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 12.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 12.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 2
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -33.0%
- ROCE > 15% -29.7%
- Expected return > 10% 8.3%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Sell | 40,281 | 146.07 | 5,883,846 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Other | 76,452 | 12.21 | 933,479 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Sell | 40,294 | 144.13 | 5,807,574 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Hoge Stephen | President | Other | 76,453 | 12.21 | 933,491 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Mock James M | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 15,000 | 134.49 | 2,017,350 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Mock James M | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 19,836 | 134.49 | 2,667,744 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Mock James M | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 19,836 | 30.96 | 614,123 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Mock James M | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 5,704 | 148.87 | 849,154 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Mock James M | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 11,797 | – | – |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Klinger Shannon Thyme | Chief Legal Officer | Other | 5,704 | 148.87 | 849,154 |
The company
About the Company
Moderna, Inc. ist ein Biotechnologieunternehmen, das mRNA-Medikamente in den USA, Europa und international anbietet.
- Employees
- 4,700
- Headquarters
- Cambridge, MA
- Address
- 325 Binney Street, 02142 Cambridge, United States
- Phone
- 617 714 6500
- Website
- modernatx.com
- IPO Date
- 12/07/2018
- ISIN
- US60770K1079
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Stéphane Bancel M.B.A. | CEO & Director | 1973 |
| Stephen Hoge M.D. | President | 1976 |
| James M. Mock | Chief Financial Officer | 1977 |
| Shannon Thyme Klinger J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1971 |
| Jerh Collins Ph.D. | Chief Technical Operations & Quality Officer | 1966 |
| Lavina Talukdar CFA | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | 1974 |
| Chris Ridley | VP & Global Head of Communications | – |
| Tracey Franklin | Chief People & Digital Technology Officer | 1980 |
| Charbel Haber M.P.H., Ph.D. | Senior VP & Head of Global Regulatory Science | – |
| Patrick Norman Bergstedt | Senior Vice President of Commercial Vaccines | 1962 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/01/2026 Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/31/2026 Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/08/2026 Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.