ManpowerGroup Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Revenue is turning, margin is not: the gross margin lost since 2022 costs ManpowerGroup about $238 million, more than its entire 2025 operating profit. Yellow, because the business and the balance sheet hold up, but the central operational question is open — whether the turn is real will show in three numbers in the next annual report: gross margin, full-year operating cash flow and the tax rate. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
ManpowerGroup is a textbook case of the turning-point trap: management calls 2026 an inflection point, revenue is growing again, and the stock had more than doubled by August 2026. The SEC filings, however, show a gross margin that has been falling since 2022, negative operating cash flow in 2025, a dividend cut by more than half, a tax rate around 50 percent, more expensive debt, and clients’ use of AI as an openly stated risk. Buying the stock is a bet that the revenue turn becomes a margin and cash turn. Not investment advice.
Market position & scale
By its own account, one of the world’s largest staffing companies: $17.96 billion of revenue (2025), about 2,100 offices in more than 70 countries, large multinational clients at about 60 percent of revenue. Revenue is growing again in 2026 (nine months +7.3 percent).
Margins & earning power
Gross margin down from 18.0 percent in 2022 to 16.7 percent (2025) and 16.0 percent (nine months 2026); operating margin just 0.8 percent in 2025. The margin lost since 2022 equals about $238 million of 2025 gross profit — more than the entire operating profit.
Cash flow & dividend
Operating cash flow of −$104.1 million in 2025, the first negative year since at least 2018, and −$137.0 million after nine months of 2026 (seasonal; the final quarter can offset part of it). Dividend cut from $3.08 to $1.44 per share in 2025.
AI risk
The 2025 annual report names clients’ use of AI as a demand risk and warns of possible rapid disruption to the business model; our AI rating: “threatened.”
Funding & taxes
Covenants met with room to spare (2.51 against a 3.5 limit, as of 06/30/2026), $600 million credit facility undrawn at 06/30/2026 (net $50.0 million drawn in the third quarter), interest covered (nine months 2026: $222.6 million of operating profit against $77.5 million of interest expense). But $233.1 million of cash against a €400 million bond due June 2027, rising interest (1.75 → 3.75 percent) and a tax rate of about 50 percent in the third quarter of 2026.
Worth Noting
This analysis was prompted by the share-price move around the third-quarter 2026 results: a rise from $25.75 (02/24/2026) to $62.95 (08/31/2026), then a drop on 10/15/2026 from $51.96 to $43.74 (closing prices, fundamental data).
The 10-Q for September 30, 2026 had not been filed as of October 21, 2026; third-quarter 2026 figures come from the earnings release (8-K of 10/15/2026, Exhibit 99.1). The margin calculation ($238 million) is our own: the difference between the unrounded 2022 (18.02%) and 2025 (16.69%) gross margins applied to 2025 revenue of $17.957 billion; the rounded figures would give about $233 million.
Not to be confused: the NYSE ticker MAN belongs to ManpowerGroup Inc. (CIK 0000871763), not to the German truck maker MAN. Valuation dated and evergreen: market value from 46,505,570 shares × $42.98 (10/20/2026).
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 21, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MAN since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 25.80 $ to 63.00 $ · Last price: 46.30 $ (As of: October 30, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/30/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Staffing & Employment Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManpowerGroup Inc MAN | 2.2 | 17.6 | 8.0 | 16.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 55.9 |
| Robert Half International Inc RHI | 4.4 | – | 62.9 | 37.3 | 2.8 | -7.2 | 69.3 |
| Korn Ferry KFY | 4.0 | 14.6 | 7.9 | 24.7 | 14.7 | 6.4 | 17.7 |
| TriNet Group Inc TNET | 2.9 | 19.9 | 10.7 | 17.7 | 11.2 | -0.9 | 11.2 |
| Insperity Inc NSP | 1.7 | – | 29.1 | 12.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 17.4 |
| Kforce Inc. KFRC | 1.0 | 28.3 | 18.9 | 27.8 | – | -5.4 | 138.4 |
| Kelly Services B Inc KELYB | 1.0 | – | 13.9 | 19.7 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 152.6 |
| Barrett Business Services Inc BBSI | 0.8 | 22.6 | 11.0 | 20.6 | – | 8.4 | -18.9 |
| Kelly Services A Inc KELYA | 0.6 | – | 13.9 | 19.7 | – | -1.9 | 45.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 1.7 | 19.9 | 13.9 | 19.7 | 3.1 | -0.9 | 45.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19,654 | 751 | 444 | 6.27 | 600 | 2,362 | 7,574 |
| 2017 | 21,034 | 788 | 545 | 8.03 | 401 | 2,775 | 8,884 |
| 2018 | 21,991 | 797 | 557 | 8.55 | 483 | 2,625 | 8,520 |
| 2019 | 20,864 | 645 | 466 | 7.72 | 814 | 2,743 | 9,224 |
| 2020 | 18,001 | 371 | 24 | 0.41 | 936 | 2,441 | 9,346 |
| 2021 | 20,724 | 585 | 382 | 6.90 | 645 | 2,522 | 9,829 |
| 2022 | 19,828 | 661 | 374 | 7.08 | 423 | 2,447 | 9,130 |
| 2023 | 18,915 | 256 | 89 | 1.76 | 348 | 2,223 | 8,830 |
| 2024 | 17,854 | 306 | 145 | 3.00 | 309 | 2,125 | 8,201 |
| 2025 | 17,957 | 239 | -13 | -0.29 | -104 | 2,060 | 9,160 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.48 | 128.90 | 4,400 | -5.00 | 0.50 | 248 | 236 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.44 | -53.20 | 4,090 | -7.10 | 0.10 | -153 | -167 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.78 | -40.00 | 4,519 | 0.00 | -1.50 | -190 | -207 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.38 | -19.10 | 4,634 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 60 | 45 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.64 | 33.30 | 4,713 | 7.10 | 0.60 | 179 | 168 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.51 | 15.90 | 4,510 | 10.30 | 0.10 | -126 | -135 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.13 | 44.90 | 4,860 | 7.50 | 1.10 | -3 | -9 |
| 2026: Q3 | 0.71 | 86.80 | 4,840 | 4.40 | 0.70 | -8 | -17 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 3.59 | 3.56 – 3.60 | 19,127 | 21.0% | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.64 | 4.28 – 5.35 | 19,797 | 29.3% | 11 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 45.7% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $7.4M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.15B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $318.9M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 78.1% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
ManpowerGroup nennt im Geschäftsbericht für 2025 unter den Risikofaktoren ausdrücklich, dass der rasch zunehmende KI-Einsatz bei den eigenen Kunden die Nachfrage nach seinen Personaldiensten senken kann, weil Aufgaben der überlassenen Arbeitskräfte durch KI-Automatisierung ersetzt werden könnten, und warnt vor einer erheblichen, schnellen Störung des eigenen Geschäftsmodells; KI setzt der Konzern zwar für Effizienz und KI-gestützte Eignungstests ein, eine eigene KI-Umsatzquelle weist er aber nicht aus. Nach der Vorrang-Regel geht der konkret auf das eigene Modell bezogene Bedrohungsbefund dem operativen KI-Einsatz vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„The rapidly increasing deployment of AI technology by our customers may lead to reduced demand for our services and solutions. As these technologies evolve, some services and tasks currently performed by our associates may be replaced by AI automation, which could lead to reduced demand for our services if we cannot replace such demand with new services."
Der rasch zunehmende Einsatz von KI-Technologie durch unsere Kunden kann zu einer geringeren Nachfrage nach unseren Dienstleistungen und Lösungen führen. Mit der Weiterentwicklung dieser Technologien könnten einige Dienstleistungen und Aufgaben, die heute von unseren überlassenen Arbeitskräften erbracht werden, durch KI-Automatisierung ersetzt werden – das könnte die Nachfrage nach unseren Dienstleistungen senken, wenn wir diese Nachfrage nicht durch neue Dienstleistungen ersetzen können.
10-K · 2026-02-23 · View SEC filing
„There is a risk that these, or other developments, could result in significant rapid disruption to our business model, and that we will be unprepared to compete effectively."
Es besteht das Risiko, dass diese oder andere Entwicklungen zu einer erheblichen und schnellen Störung unseres Geschäftsmodells führen und dass wir nicht darauf vorbereitet sind, wirksam im Wettbewerb zu bestehen.
10-K · 2026-02-23 · View SEC filing
„Leveraging AI-based technology for our internal operations and service offerings presents risks, costs, and challenges as we continue to implement AI capabilities, including generative AI, to improve our operating efficiency and develop client offerings."
Der Einsatz KI-basierter Technologie für unsere internen Abläufe und unser Leistungsangebot bringt Risiken, Kosten und Herausforderungen mit sich, während wir weiter KI-Fähigkeiten einschließlich generativer KI einführen, um unsere betriebliche Effizienz zu verbessern und Angebote für Kunden zu entwickeln.
10-K · 2026-02-23 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-07 · 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-Q 2025-10-31 · 10-Q 2025-08-05 · 10-K 2026-02-23 · 10-K 2025-02-19
Rated on October 21, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -3.3%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 6.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -4.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -0.3%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 16.7%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 16.9%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 5.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 333 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 6.1%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.8%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
1/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -1.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 5.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -12.0%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 5.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 6.4x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 70.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -15.7%
- ROCE > 15% 6.1%
- Expected return > 10% -2.9%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
ManpowerGroup Inc. provides workforce solutions and services under the Manpower, the Experis, and the Talent Solutions brands in the Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and the Asia Pacific/the Middle East. The company offers recruitment services, including permanent, temporary, and contract recruitment of professionals, as well as administrative, industrial, and information technology professional positions; assessment, upskilling, reskilling, training and development, career management, and workforce consulting services; and outsourcing services related to human resources functions primarily in the areas of large-scale recruiting and workforce-intensive initiatives. It also offers contingent staffing and permanent recruitment services; information technology professional resourcing and project services; and recruitment process outsourcing solutions; and right management services, as well as TAPFIN, a managed service provider solution. ManpowerGroup Inc. was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
- Employees
- 25,400
- Headquarters
- Milwaukee, WI
- Address
- 100 Manpower Place, 53212 Milwaukee, United States
- Phone
- 414 961 1000
- Website
- manpowergroup.com
- IPO Date
- 05/03/1988
- ISIN
- US56418H1005
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Prising | Chairman & CEO | 1965 |
| John Thomas McGinnis CPA | Executive VP, CFO & Head of Investor Relations | 1967 |
| Michelle S. Nettles | Executive VP, Chief People & Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1972 |
| Amanda Jack | Chief Technology Officer | – |
| Frits Scholte | Senior VP & Global Head of Sales | – |
| Ruth Harper | Senior VP and Chief Marketing & Sustainability Officer | – |
| Michael Stull | Managing Director of Talent Solutions UK | – |
| Monica Flores Barragan | President of Latin America Region | 1966 |
| François Andre Lançon | Regional President of?Asia Pacific & Middle East (APME) | – |
| Riccardo Barberis | President of Northern Europe Region & ManpowerGroup France | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 10/28/2026 ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/15/2026 ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/15/2026 ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/11/2026 ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/16/2026 ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: October 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.