United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The decisive test has a date: on August 3, 2026 United Fire Group reports second quarter 2026 results — the first quarter with a full catastrophe season under the retention raised to $4.0 million. Three lines will settle the thesis: the underlying loss ratio (Q1 2026: 57.0 percent), ceded written premium (Q1 2026: $33.7 million) and the table of the company's own share repurchases, which has read zero since 2023. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
An insurer lives or dies by a single number: the combined ratio. At United Fire Group it fell from 99.4 to 95.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 — the fifth straight quarter of earnings well above expectations. But the quarterly report filed with the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, breaks that number apart itself: 3.0 of the 3.8 points came from the expense ratio, 1.3 from lower catastrophe losses — and the underlying loss ratio, which measures the current-year insurance business, got 0.5 points worse. Add a higher retention, 33.4 percent less ceded premium, and a 2 million share repurchase authorization that has not bought a single share since 2023. Not investment advice — just the question of which part of a ratio actually moved.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 25, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at UFCS since then.
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This stock currently matches 19 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 51.40 $ — 91% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
ThreatenedDer Geschäftsbericht nennt künstliche Intelligenz in den Risikofaktoren (Item 1A) als konkrete Wettbewerbsgefahr für das eigene Modell — wer Technik und Datenanalyse schlechter einsetzt als die Konkurrenz, verliert Zeichnungsfähigkeit und Profitabilität; eigene KI-Umsätze gibt es nicht, und in den vier ausgewerteten Quartalsberichten kommt KI überhaupt nicht vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Emerging technology, including artificial intelligence, offers opportunities to underwrite and price business more efficiently and accurately, thus lowering costs. If we cannot use technology and data analytics as effectively as our competitors, our competitiveness and ability to write and retain business within our risk appetite will be impacted. This may reduce the profitability of the business we write and retain and negatively affect our ability to meet our business objectives."
Neue Technik, darunter künstliche Intelligenz, eröffnet die Möglichkeit, Geschäft effizienter und genauer zu zeichnen und zu bepreisen und dadurch Kosten zu senken. Wenn wir Technik und Datenanalyse nicht so wirksam einsetzen können wie unsere Wettbewerber, leidet unsere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und unsere Fähigkeit, Geschäft innerhalb unseres Risikoappetits zu zeichnen und zu halten. Das kann die Profitabilität des Geschäfts mindern, das wir zeichnen und halten, und unsere Fähigkeit beeinträchtigen, unsere Geschäftsziele zu erreichen.
„We use outputs of predictive models and other analytics to assist in decision making related to underwriting, pricing, claims management (including reserving), and catastrophe risk exposure management."
Wir nutzen die Ergebnisse von Vorhersagemodellen und weiteren Analysen als Entscheidungshilfe bei Zeichnung, Bepreisung, Schadenbearbeitung (einschließlich Reservierung) und Steuerung der Katastrophenrisiken.
„Emerging technology, including artificial intelligence, offers opportunities to underwrite and price business more efficiently and accurately, thus lowering costs. If we are not able to use technology and data analytics as effectively as our competitors, our competitiveness and ability to write and retain business within our risk appetite will be impacted."
Neue Technik, darunter künstliche Intelligenz, eröffnet die Möglichkeit, Geschäft effizienter und genauer zu zeichnen und zu bepreisen und dadurch Kosten zu senken. Wenn wir Technik und Datenanalyse nicht so wirksam einsetzen können wie unsere Wettbewerber, leidet unsere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und unsere Fähigkeit, Geschäft innerhalb unseres Risikoappetits zu zeichnen und zu halten.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 0.8% below the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 2
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.55 | 4.21 – 4.88 | 1,543 | -1.2% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.53 | 4.11 – 4.95 | 1,793 | -0.3% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.70 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.07 | 96.90 | 301 | 12.80 | -0.90 | 91 | 88 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.81 | 161.30 | 323 | 17.90 | 6.10 | 57 | 53 |
| 2024: Q4 | 1.25 | 92.30 | 332 | 14.30 | 9.50 | 156 | 153 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.70 | 25.00 | 331 | 11.90 | 5.30 | 36 | 33 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.90 | 1,385.70 | 337 | 11.80 | 6.80 | 53 | 52 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.50 | 85.20 | 354 | 9.60 | 11.10 | 61 | 59 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.50 | 20.00 | 366 | 10.30 | 10.50 | 120 | 119 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.15 | 64.30 | 369 | 11.60 | 8.10 | 57 | 56 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 986 | 58 | 50 | 1.93 | 214 | 942 | 4,055 |
| 2017 | 1,056 | 16 | 51 | 1.99 | 170 | 973 | 4,183 |
| 2018 | 1,080 | -9 | 28 | 1.08 | 110 | 888 | 2,817 |
| 2019 | 1,200 | 17 | 15 | 0.58 | 94 | 910 | 3,013 |
| 2020 | 1,078 | -170 | -113 | -4.50 | 41 | 2,995 | 3,070 |
| 2021 | 1,056 | 97 | 81 | 3.21 | 30 | 2,936 | 3,013 |
| 2022 | 988 | 12 | 15 | 0.59 | -1 | 740 | 2,882 |
| 2023 | 1,098 | -40 | -30 | -1.18 | 172 | 734 | 3,144 |
| 2024 | 1,252 | 77 | 62 | 2.39 | 340 | 782 | 3,488 |
| 2025 | 1,386 | 148 | 118 | 4.48 | 270 | 941 | 3,841 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The combined ratio fell from 109.3 percent (2023) through 99.2 (2024) to 94.8 percent (2025), and the bottom line swung from a $29.7 million loss to $118.2 million of net income. Book value per share rose from $30.80 (December 31, 2024) to $37.06 (March 31, 2026). The underlying ratio also improved on a full-year basis, from 97.1 to 92.0 percent.
Of the 3.8 points of improvement in the first quarter of 2026, 3.0 came from the expense ratio (34.9 versus 37.9 percent) and 1.3 from lower catastrophes (3.7 versus 5.0 points). The underlying loss ratio rose from 56.5 to 57.0 percent. The filing attributes part of the expense decline to non-recurring prior-period costs for a new policy administration system.
Reserves of $1.97 billion (March 31, 2026) stand against equity of $950.6 million. The favorable 2025 net figure of $5.2 million is built from $22.3 million favorable in automobile and $10.0 million in fire and allied lines against adverse development in commercial other liability — the same line that produced the 2023 annual loss with $52.9 million. The annual report names litigation financing as a risk factor in its own right.
Effective January 1, 2026 the core treaty retention rose from $3.0 million to $4.0 million per occurrence and the annual aggregate deductible was eliminated. Ceded written premium fell 33.4 percent to $33.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, which accounts for roughly half the 12.4 percent growth in net written premium, while direct and assumed written premium together grew only 6.4 percent.
Equity of $950.6 million, invested assets of $2.49 billion yielding an average 4.43 percent, and an unused $517.2 million facility at FHLB Des Moines (all as of March 31, 2026). Against that sit $146.3 million of long-term debt, including $100 million principal in papers the filing labels the 9 percent UFG Notes; interest expense rose from $3.3 million (2023) to $11.3 million (2025).
Roughly $1.32 billion of market capitalization (data as of July 24, 2026) equates to a price-to-book ratio of about 1.3 and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 10 on trailing twelve-month earnings of $4.96 per share. For an insurer running below a 100 percent combined ratio that is within the normal band — the market is paying for continuation, not for a story. The 52-week range of $25.29 to $54.42 shows how much has already been priced in.
United Fire Group has worked its way from a 109.3 percent combined ratio to 94.8 percent in three years and turned a $29.7 million loss into $118.2 million of net income — that part is real and audited. But of the 3.8 points of improvement in the first quarter of 2026, 3.0 came from the expense ratio, where the company itself names a prior-year one-off, and 1.3 from lower catastrophes; the underlying loss ratio rose 0.5 points. Roughly half the 12.4 percent growth in net written premium comes from the fact that UFG has run a $4.0 million retention instead of $3.0 million since January 1, 2026 and cedes 33.4 percent less premium. Not investment advice.
- Hook: rank 24 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise ranking (U.S. selection with 81 hits), relative strength rating 84 out of 100, as of July 25, 2026. The lists are recomputed daily.
- Data basis: SEC figures as of December 31, 2025 (Form 10-K, filed February 26, 2026) and March 31, 2026 (Form 10-Q, filed May 6, 2026); ratios and earnings surprises as of July 24, 2026. Filings after the quarterly report — the Forms 8-K of May 20, 2026, May 26, 2026 and July 17, 2026 — were reviewed.
- Risk of confusion: United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS, CIK 0000101199) was called United Fire & Casualty Company until February 2012 and should not be confused with fire equipment manufacturers or with similarly named regional insurers. The subsidiary United Fire Lloyds is a Texas Lloyds plan and has nothing to do with the London market — in which UFG participates separately through McIntyre Cedar Corporate Member.
- The Altman Z-score in the fundamental data (0.86) is meaningless for insurers because the formula was built for manufacturers; it is named in this analysis but not used.
About the Company
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds; and fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety to small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries, such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. The company also offers marine specialty, professional liability, and earthquake coverages; specialty and surplus lines coverage; and reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through a network of independent agencies. United Fire Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
| Employees | 846 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Cedar Rapids, IA |
| Address | 118 Second Avenue SE, 52401 Cedar Rapids, United States |
| Phone | 319 399 5700 |
| Website | ufginsurance.com |
| IPO Date | 26. Mar 1990 |
| ISIN | US9103401082 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 12/16/2004 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin James Leidwinger | President, CEO, Principal Executive Officer & Executive Director | 1964 |
| Eric John Martin | Executive VP & CFO | 1971 |
| Julie Anne Stephenson | Executive VP & COO | 1968 |
| Sarah Emily Madsen | Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1979 |
| Steven Dennis Hernandez | Senior VP & Chief HR Officer | 1967 |
| Adam Michael Vogt | VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | – |
| Lindsay Erin Lovvorn | Senior VP & Chief Administrative Officer | – |
| Timothy Borst | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Michael John Sheeley | VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 1961 |
| Micah Grant Woolstenhulme | Senior VP & Chief Reinsurance Officer | 1976 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.