United Fire Group Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The decisive test has a date: on August 3, 2026 United Fire Group reports second quarter 2026 results — the first quarter with a full catastrophe season under the retention raised to $4.0 million. Three lines will settle the thesis: the underlying loss ratio (Q1 2026: 57.0 percent), ceded written premium (Q1 2026: $33.7 million) and the table of the company's own share repurchases, which has read zero since 2023. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
United Fire Group has worked its way from a 109.3 percent combined ratio to 94.8 percent in three years and turned a $29.7 million loss into $118.2 million of net income — that part is real and audited. But of the 3.8 points of improvement in the first quarter of 2026, 3.0 came from the expense ratio, where the company itself names a prior-year one-off, and 1.3 from lower catastrophes; the underlying loss ratio rose 0.5 points. Roughly half the 12.4 percent growth in net written premium comes from the fact that UFG has run a $4.0 million retention instead of $3.0 million since January 1, 2026 and cedes 33.4 percent less premium. Not investment advice.
Three-year turnaround
The combined ratio fell from 109.3 percent (2023) through 99.2 (2024) to 94.8 percent (2025), and the bottom line swung from a $29.7 million loss to $118.2 million of net income. Book value per share rose from $30.80 (December 31, 2024) to $37.06 (March 31, 2026). The underlying ratio also improved on a full-year basis, from 97.1 to 92.0 percent.
Quality of the quarterly improvement
Of the 3.8 points of improvement in the first quarter of 2026, 3.0 came from the expense ratio (34.9 versus 37.9 percent) and 1.3 from lower catastrophes (3.7 versus 5.0 points). The underlying loss ratio rose from 56.5 to 57.0 percent. The filing attributes part of the expense decline to non-recurring prior-period costs for a new policy administration system.
Reserves and social inflation
Reserves of $1.97 billion (March 31, 2026) stand against equity of $950.6 million. The favorable 2025 net figure of $5.2 million is built from $22.3 million favorable in automobile and $10.0 million in fire and allied lines against adverse development in commercial other liability — the same line that produced the 2023 annual loss with $52.9 million. The annual report names litigation financing as a risk factor in its own right.
Retention and premium quality
Effective January 1, 2026 the core treaty retention rose from $3.0 million to $4.0 million per occurrence and the annual aggregate deductible was eliminated. Ceded written premium fell 33.4 percent to $33.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, which accounts for roughly half the 12.4 percent growth in net written premium, while direct and assumed written premium together grew only 6.4 percent.
Capital and funding
Equity of $950.6 million, invested assets of $2.49 billion yielding an average 4.43 percent, and an unused $517.2 million facility at FHLB Des Moines (all as of March 31, 2026). Against that sit $146.3 million of long-term debt, including $100 million principal in papers the filing labels the 9 percent UFG Notes; interest expense rose from $3.3 million (2023) to $11.3 million (2025).
Valuation
Roughly $1.32 billion of market capitalization (data as of July 24, 2026) equates to a price-to-book ratio of about 1.3 and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 10 on trailing twelve-month earnings of $4.96 per share. For an insurer running below a 100 percent combined ratio that is within the normal band — the market is paying for continuation, not for a story. The 52-week range of $25.29 to $54.42 shows how much has already been priced in.
Worth Noting
Hook: rank 24 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise ranking (U.S. selection with 81 hits), relative strength rating 84 out of 100, as of July 25, 2026. The lists are recomputed daily.
Data basis: SEC figures as of December 31, 2025 (Form 10-K, filed February 26, 2026) and March 31, 2026 (Form 10-Q, filed May 6, 2026); ratios and earnings surprises as of July 24, 2026. Filings after the quarterly report — the Forms 8-K of May 20, 2026, May 26, 2026 and July 17, 2026 — were reviewed.
Risk of confusion: United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS, CIK 0000101199) was called United Fire & Casualty Company until February 2012 and should not be confused with fire equipment manufacturers or with similarly named regional insurers. The subsidiary United Fire Lloyds is a Texas Lloyds plan and has nothing to do with the London market — in which UFG participates separately through McIntyre Cedar Corporate Member.
The Altman Z-score in the fundamental data (0.86) is meaningless for insurers because the formula was built for manufacturers; it is named in this analysis but not used.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at UFCS since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 30.00 $ to 56.10 $ · Last price: 54.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Fire Group Inc UFCS | 1.4 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 74.6 |
| Chubb Ltd CB | 132.6 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 20.6 | 6.5 | 27.1 |
| Progressive Corp PGR | 126.0 | 11.7 | 21.9 | 18.5 | 16.4 | 16.3 | -5.5 |
| The Travelers Companies Inc TRV | 79.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 18.7 | 5.2 | 40.1 |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | 64.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 36.8 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 30.3 |
| W. R. Berkley Corp WRB | 26.1 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 43.8 | 17.1 | 7.8 | -1.5 |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | 25.8 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 13.9 |
| Markel Corporation MKL | 21.9 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 51.9 | -9.7 | -1.0 | -7.4 |
| Loews Corp L | 21.8 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 36.3 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 12.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 26.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 13.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 986 | 58 | 50 | 1.93 | 214 | 942 | 4,055 |
| 2017 | 1,056 | 16 | 51 | 1.99 | 170 | 973 | 4,183 |
| 2018 | 1,080 | -9 | 28 | 1.08 | 110 | 888 | 2,817 |
| 2019 | 1,200 | 17 | 15 | 0.58 | 94 | 910 | 3,013 |
| 2020 | 1,078 | -170 | -113 | -4.50 | 41 | 2,995 | 3,070 |
| 2021 | 1,056 | 97 | 81 | 3.21 | 30 | 2,936 | 3,013 |
| 2022 | 988 | 12 | 15 | 0.59 | -1 | 740 | 2,882 |
| 2023 | 1,098 | -40 | -30 | -1.18 | 172 | 734 | 3,144 |
| 2024 | 1,252 | 77 | 62 | 2.39 | 340 | 782 | 3,488 |
| 2025 | 1,386 | 148 | 118 | 4.48 | 270 | 941 | 3,841 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.07 | 96.90 | 301 | 12.80 | -0.90 | 91 | 88 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.76 | 204.00 | 323 | 17.90 | 6.10 | 57 | 53 |
| 2024: Q4 | 1.25 | 92.30 | 332 | 14.30 | 9.50 | 156 | 153 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.70 | 25.00 | 331 | 11.90 | 5.30 | 36 | 33 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.87 | 1,342.90 | 337 | 11.80 | 6.80 | 53 | 52 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.50 | 97.40 | 354 | 9.60 | 11.10 | 61 | 59 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.45 | 16.00 | 366 | 10.30 | 10.50 | 120 | 119 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.15 | 64.30 | 369 | 11.60 | 8.10 | 57 | 56 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.29 | 48.30 | 384 | 14.00 | 8.70 | 34 | 34 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 21 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Mike Webster: Power Trend Leader
- Near 52-Week High
- Power Trend
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.99 | 4.98 – 5.00 | 1,598 | 8.5% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.84 | 4.48 – 5.20 | 1,903 | -3.0% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -11.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $268.4M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.39B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $78.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 29.8% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 63.5% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Der Geschäftsbericht nennt künstliche Intelligenz in den Risikofaktoren (Item 1A) als konkrete Wettbewerbsgefahr für das eigene Modell — wer Technik und Datenanalyse schlechter einsetzt als die Konkurrenz, verliert Zeichnungsfähigkeit und Profitabilität; eigene KI-Umsätze gibt es nicht, und in den vier ausgewerteten Quartalsberichten kommt KI überhaupt nicht vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Emerging technology, including artificial intelligence, offers opportunities to underwrite and price business more efficiently and accurately, thus lowering costs. If we cannot use technology and data analytics as effectively as our competitors, our competitiveness and ability to write and retain business within our risk appetite will be impacted. This may reduce the profitability of the business we write and retain and negatively affect our ability to meet our business objectives."
Neue Technik, darunter künstliche Intelligenz, eröffnet die Möglichkeit, Geschäft effizienter und genauer zu zeichnen und zu bepreisen und dadurch Kosten zu senken. Wenn wir Technik und Datenanalyse nicht so wirksam einsetzen können wie unsere Wettbewerber, leidet unsere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und unsere Fähigkeit, Geschäft innerhalb unseres Risikoappetits zu zeichnen und zu halten. Das kann die Profitabilität des Geschäfts mindern, das wir zeichnen und halten, und unsere Fähigkeit beeinträchtigen, unsere Geschäftsziele zu erreichen.
10-K · 2026-02-26 · View SEC filing
„We use outputs of predictive models and other analytics to assist in decision making related to underwriting, pricing, claims management (including reserving), and catastrophe risk exposure management."
Wir nutzen die Ergebnisse von Vorhersagemodellen und weiteren Analysen als Entscheidungshilfe bei Zeichnung, Bepreisung, Schadenbearbeitung (einschließlich Reservierung) und Steuerung der Katastrophenrisiken.
10-K · 2026-02-26 · View SEC filing
„Emerging technology, including artificial intelligence, offers opportunities to underwrite and price business more efficiently and accurately, thus lowering costs. If we are not able to use technology and data analytics as effectively as our competitors, our competitiveness and ability to write and retain business within our risk appetite will be impacted."
Neue Technik, darunter künstliche Intelligenz, eröffnet die Möglichkeit, Geschäft effizienter und genauer zu zeichnen und zu bepreisen und dadurch Kosten zu senken. Wenn wir Technik und Datenanalyse nicht so wirksam einsetzen können wie unsere Wettbewerber, leidet unsere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und unsere Fähigkeit, Geschäft innerhalb unseres Risikoappetits zu zeichnen und zu halten.
10-K · 2025-02-26 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 11.9%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -71.7%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 1.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 29.7%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 44.9%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1,128 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 631 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 11.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 17.3%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 3.9%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 17.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 11.1%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 3.9%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -7.6x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 7
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 15.2%
- ROCE > 15% 11.8%
- Expected return > 10% 23.6%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Carlton Scott L | Director | Sell | 9,777 | 55.52 | 542,799 |
The company
About the Company
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. It provides property and casualty insurance, and surety bonds; and fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and surety to small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries, such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. The company also offers marine specialty, professional liability, and earthquake coverages; specialty and surplus lines coverage; and reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through a network of independent agencies. United Fire Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
- Employees
- 846
- Headquarters
- Cedar Rapids, IA
- Address
- 118 Second Avenue SE, 52401 Cedar Rapids, United States
- Phone
- 319 399 5700
- Website
- ufginsurance.com
- IPO Date
- 03/26/1990
- ISIN
- US9103401082
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 12/16/2004
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 01/08/1996
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 01/06/1995
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin James Leidwinger | President, CEO, Principal Executive Officer & Executive Director | 1964 |
| Eric John Martin | Executive VP & CFO | 1971 |
| Julie Anne Stephenson | Executive VP & COO | 1968 |
| Sarah Emily Madsen | Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1979 |
| Steven Dennis Hernandez | Senior VP & Chief HR Officer | 1967 |
| Adam Michael Vogt | VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | – |
| Lindsay Erin Lovvorn | Senior VP & Chief Administrative Officer | – |
| Timothy Borst | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Michael John Sheeley | VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 1961 |
| Micah Grant Woolstenhulme | Senior VP & Chief Reinsurance Officer | 1976 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/21/2026 UNITED FIRE GROUP INC (UFCS): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/03/2026 UNITED FIRE GROUP INC (UFCS): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/17/2026 UNITED FIRE GROUP INC (UFCS): Other Events SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.