Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The substance holds: a low-debt balance sheet with $28.2 million of cash plus $5.2 million of securities, the credit line reduced by $60 million in fiscal 2026, $114.2 million of operating and roughly $90 million of free cash flow, a steady 26.9 percent gross margin and a brand with 170 years of history. Nothing supports red: no going-concern doubt, no over-indebtedness, and the largest legal risk fell away when the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed the Mexican suit in June 2025. Three things rule out green. First, demand cyclicality: revenue fell from the boom peak of $1,059.2 million in fiscal 2021 to $474.7 million in fiscal 2025 and earnings briefly to a twentieth; underlying NICS demand was recently flat to declining, and the 2026 recovery came from new products rather than from the market. Second, capital returns: in fiscal 2025 $48.6 million flowed to shareholders while operating cash flow was negative at minus $7.2 million — funded from the credit line. Third, customer concentration: two customers accounted for 24.7 percent of revenue and the top five distributors for 46 percent.
symbol.quality_note
In the COVID and unrest year of fiscal 2021, Smith & Wesson sold $1,059 million worth of firearms and earned $252 million. The business has since fallen back to roughly half that — and the share price has still more than doubled off its low. We read the annual report: a solid balance sheet, a real dividend plus buybacks, but demand that hangs on headlines, and a payout that in fiscal 2025 exceeded the cash flow entirely. Not investment advice — just the sober question of what a business is worth when nobody can schedule its next wave of demand.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SWBI since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 14.60 $ — 77% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 10.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) Geschäftsjahr 2026 (bis 30.04.2026, eingereicht 17.06.2026), den 10-K Geschäftsjahr 2025 und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q). In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Smith & Wesson Brands findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug: keine KI-Umsatzquelle, kein dokumentierter operativer KI-Einsatz und kein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko für das eigene Modell. Die einzige nennenswerte KI-Erwähnung ist ein generischer Risk-Factor im Item 1A des 10-K 2026 („Our use of artificial intelligence, or AI, may adversely impact our business“), der ausschließlich allgemeine Gefahren der internen KI-Nutzung durch Mitarbeiter beschreibt (Abfluss vertraulicher Informationen, IP-Missbrauch, fehlerhafte Ergebnisse/Bias, Wettbewerbsnachteil bei zu langsamer Adoption). Nach dem Kriterienkatalog ist das eine Boilerplate-Risk-Floskel ohne konkreten Bezug zum Waffengeschäft — KI bedroht die Nachfrage nach Handfeuerwaffen und Gewehren nicht, treibt sie nicht und wird nicht verkauft. Der Quartalsbericht Q3 (per 31.01.2026) enthält gar keinen KI-Treffer. Damit bleibt es beim dokumentierten Negativ-Befund: neutral.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-06-17 · 10-K 2025-06-20 · 10-Q 2026-03-05 · 10-Q 2025-12-04 · 10-Q 2025-09-04 · 10-Q 2025-03-06
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth Score
4 of 10 Weak growthTen checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 3.0% failed
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -100.0% failed
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.7% passed
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 27.6% failed
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 26.9% failed
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 3.7% passed
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.3 x EBITDA passed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 142 m passed
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 6.7% failed
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 2.3% failed
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 18.2% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 3
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2027 | 0.47 | 0.47 – 0.47 | 551 | 14.6% | 1 |
| 04/30/2028 | – | – | 0 | – | – |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.05 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q1 | 0.04 | -78.10 | 116 | -15.70 | 1.40 | -10 | -16 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.22 | -61.30 | 141 | -11.60 | 6.90 | 41 | 34 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.08 | – | 85 | -3.70 | -4.00 | -8 | -12 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.04 | -53.40 | 125 | -3.90 | 1.50 | 27 | 32 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.08 | 123.50 | 136 | 17.10 | 2.80 | 21 | 17 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.36 | 63.50 | 178 | 26.70 | 9.10 | 75 | 70 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 903 | 200 | 128 | 2.25 | 124 | 393 | 788 |
| 2018 | 607 | 27 | 20 | 0.37 | 62 | 422 | 745 |
| 2019 | 638 | 38 | 18 | 0.33 | 57 | 444 | 767 |
| 2020 | 678 | 50 | -61 | -1.11 | 95 | 387 | 729 |
| 2021 | 1,059 | 320 | 252 | 4.55 | 315 | 266 | 446 |
| 2022 | 864 | 252 | 194 | 4.08 | 138 | 361 | 497 |
| 2023 | 479 | 48 | 37 | 0.80 | 17 | 385 | 541 |
| 2024 | 536 | 45 | 40 | 0.86 | 107 | 400 | 577 |
| 2025 | 475 | 24 | 13 | 0.30 | -7 | 372 | 560 |
| 2026 | 524 | 29 | 18 | 0.41 | 114 | 377 | 513 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Low debt: about $28.2 million of cash plus $5.2 million of securities, the credit line reduced by $60 million in fiscal 2026. Operating cash flow back to $114.2 million with roughly $90 million free. Profitable across the whole cycle. A solid base that carries the downturn.
An uninterrupted quarterly dividend since 2020 (about $0.52 per share a year, yielding roughly 3.4 percent) plus ongoing buybacks that have meaningfully shrunk the share count. Real and shareholder-friendly — but in the trough year of fiscal 2025 funded past a negative operating cash flow, so it is tied to the cycle.
The core reservation: revenue fell from the COVID and unrest boom ($1,059.2 million in fiscal 2021) to roughly half, and earnings briefly to a twentieth. The fiscal 2026 recovery (+10.4 percent) came from new products while underlying NICS demand was flat to declining. A politics- and event-driven cycle nobody can schedule.
Lawsuits come with the business: three product liability cases plus six further claims, and a quantified contract dispute ($18.6 million, trial January 2027). But the biggest item fell away — the Mexican government's multi-billion-dollar suit was dismissed by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2025, and the PLCAA remains the essential liability shield. Real, but bounded.
The price-to-earnings ratio of around 38 overstates the expense (earnings trough); a forward multiple around 12, EV/EBITDA around 11.6 and price-to-sales around 1.3 are moderate but no bargain. The price has run ahead of the recovery: more than doubled from the 52-week low, near the yearly high.
Smith & Wesson is a fundamentally sound, low-debt firearms maker with a strong brand, a real dividend and ongoing buybacks — but the engine of this business, firearms demand, is strongly cyclical and driven by politics and events. From the COVID and unrest boom ($1,059.2 million of revenue in fiscal 2021) the company has fallen back to roughly half; the fiscal 2026 recovery (+10.4 percent) came from new products, not from a new wave of fear. Capital returns in fiscal 2025 even ran past a negative cash flow. The share has more than doubled off its low and leads the recovery. A solid, cash-returning cyclical without a clear margin of safety — no reason for caution, but no bargain either. Not investment advice.
- Identity and legal form: Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. — incorporated in Nevada, operating headquarters in Maryville, Tennessee (CIK 0001092796, ISIN US8317541063). A pure firearms maker since the outdoor division (American Outdoor Brands) was spun off in August 2020. The fiscal year ends April 30. Demand proxy: NICS background checks.
- Special-situation screening (EDGAR full index, CIK 1092796): no pending takeover, no strategic review, no rights plan, no active 13D campaign (only passive SC 13G/A); routine 8-K, Form 3/4 and exempt solicitations (ESG activism, common at firearms makers). Insiders hold about 2.3 percent, institutions about 58 percent.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-July 2026; analyses are evergreen and daily prices are not a buying argument. The market capitalisation of roughly $690 million refers to about 44.7 million shares outstanding.
- The six-year charts are built from the SEC XBRL company-concept series (revenue, net income, dividends paid, share repurchases, operating cash flow), so every bar can be traced back to a filed annual report.
- AI classification: neutral. No material AI reference in the filings reviewed; the only mention is a generic risk factor on internal AI use (Item 1A of the fiscal 2026 10-K) with no specific link to the firearms business — no AI revenue source, no operational AI use, no concrete AI threat to the demand model.
About the Company
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. entwirft, fertigt und verkauft weltweit Schusswaffen.
| Employees | 1,378 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Maryville, TN |
| Address | 1852 Proffitt Springs Road, 37801 Maryville, United States |
| Phone | 800 331 0852 |
| Website | smith-wesson.com |
| IPO Date | 9. Nov 1998 |
| ISIN | US8317541063 |
| Stock Split | 1301:1000 on 08/25/2020 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Peter Smith | President, CEO & Director | 1976 |
| Deana L. McPherson CPA | Executive VP, CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary | 1970 |
| Kevin Alden Maxwell | Senior VP, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Secretary | 1976 |
| Kyle O. Tengwall | Chief Marketing Officer & VP of Corporate Strategy | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.