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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
SPCX

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · listed since 2026

154.80$ +2.6% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Open questions

The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.

Why this colour

Whoever buys today is simultaneously betting that Starship keeps its schedule, that the AI billions eventually earn a return, that Starlink's ARPU erosion is outrun by subscriber growth — and that a sole ruler with three other companies keeps deciding in the interest of Class A holders; the price for that is 90 times revenue with no voting weight at all. Whoever waits gets real market data starting in early 2027: the first 10-K, the first quarterly reports and the end of the lock-up (December 2026). Watch three things: does Starlink keep adding subscribers by the hundreds of millions of dollars, does the AI segment loss shrink, and does the $100 billion cash pile survive the capex pace? The decision is yours.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

SPCX is the largest IPO in history and the once-in-a-century trap in its purest form: a genuine once-in-a-century company (an orbital monopoly, Starlink with a +$4.4 billion segment result, $100.8 billion in cash) — wrapped in a conglomerate where an AI segment with a "largely unproven" business model burns $6.4 billion, valued at 85 to 95 times revenue, steered by a part-time CEO holding 82.4 percent of the votes and a pay package that only fully vests on a Mars colony. Whoever buys is buying tomorrow's narrative, not today's business. Not investment advice.

Market position & technology

A de-facto monopoly in orbital transport (170 launches, 2,213 metric tons to orbit in 2025 — more than the rest of the world), more than a decade's lead in reusability, plus Starlink with ~9,600 satellites across 164 countries — technologically, SPCX has no serious rival (IPO prospectus 424B4, June 2026).

Starlink growth & order book

Connectivity revenue nearly tripled in two years ($3,869 → $11,387 million), 10.3 million subscribers (03/31/2026), a +$4,423 million segment result (2025); a $28,377 million backlog and ~$100.8 billion in cash after the IPO and bond offering (06/19/2026) — the profitable core business is real and growing.

Earnings quality & capital burn

A net loss of $4,937 million (2025) and $4,276 million in Q1 2026 alone; only one of three segments earns (AI: $(6,355) million); capex of $20,737 million = 3x operating cash flow (2025), nearly 10:1 in Q1 2026 — 76 percent of it for an AI business model the prospectus itself calls "largely unproven"; Starlink ARPU erosion ($99 → $66).

Governance & key person

82.4 percent of votes with Elon Musk, Class B separately elects 51 percent of the board, removal only by Class B holders; a "controlled company" using Nasdaq exemptions, no key-person insurance, no full-time CEO; corporate opportunities renounced by charter; a related-party web (Tesla projects without definitive agreements, $20.2 billion of GPU leases with board member Antonio Gracias's Valor).

Valuation & dilution overhang

P/S of 85–95 at the IPO price ($1.767 trillion for $18,674 million of revenue), no P/E for lack of earnings; even Starlink-only math works out to ~155x segment revenue; plus a good 2.6 billion potential additional shares (1,302 million CEO awards incl. the Mars clause, 262 million EchoStar, ~444 million Cursor option, ~645 million options/RSUs) and pre-IPO buybacks at $105.32 — 22 percent below the IPO price.

Worth Noting

SPCX has only traded since mid-June 2026: no price history, no scanner findings, no analyst consensus yet (the underwriters' research quiet period was still running as of July 18, 2026) — this analysis rests solely on the 424B4 IPO prospectus and the June 8-Ks.

All figures are retrospectively consolidated (SpaceX + xAI + X, "common control") — comparisons with previously circulated SpaceX-only numbers are misleading; fiscal 2023 also contains a $3,775 million Twitter brand impairment.

Valuation figures are dated: the $1.767 trillion market cap and the P/S of 85–95 refer to the IPO price of June 11, 2026; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Exercise of the greenshoe (83.3 million shares) had not been reported via 8-K as of July 18, 2026.

Read the Full Deep Dive SpaceX Stock: The $1.77 Trillion Debut — Starlink Pays the Bills, xAI Burns Them, and Elon Musk Keeps 82 Percent of the Votes In June 2026, Space Exploration Technologies (Nasdaq: SPCX) pulled off the largest stock market debut in history: $75 billion raised at $135.00 per share, a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion. But whoever buys SPCX is not just buying the rocket: the prospectus consolidates SpaceX, xAI and X (formerly Twitter) into one conglomerate — $18.7 billion in revenue (2025), a $4.9 billion net loss, and only the Starlink segment makes money. We read the 424B4 prospectus, the bond 8-Ks and the fine print on voting power, Mars clauses and capex. Not investment advice — just the ingredient list of a package with "rocket" printed on the box. Read the analysis →

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SPCX since then.

Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.

Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 108.30 $ to 211.40 $ · Last price: 154.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 1,172.1$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 7,696m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 46.6%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. –

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. –
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. –
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. –
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). –
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. –
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (06/11/2026) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. 14.67%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 136.20$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 134.60$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 60.4
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 67.5%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E. –
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 204.1
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey. –
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. –
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. –
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. 511.6
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up. –

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. 51.9%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. –
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. -35.7%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? –
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). 0.0%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. –
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. –
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. –
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. –

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). –
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). –
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. –
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. –
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. –

Dividend

This stock currently pays no dividend.

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line. –
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks. –
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth. –
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. C (50 out of 100)

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX 1,172.1 – 511.6 51.9 – – –
GE Aerospace GE 326.7 40.1 27.6 31.1 20.2 18.5 8.8
RTX Corporation RTX 254.2 36.5 18.5 20.3 13.2 9.7 24.1
The Boeing Company BA 155.3 78.7 25.5 4.7 1.7 34.5 -8.2
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT 124.1 26.0 13.6 11.8 11.0 5.7 16.7
General Dynamics Corporation GD 96.7 22.8 15.1 15.4 10.5 10.1 11.4
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM 90.3 52.0 34.8 36.0 28.2 11.1 22.0
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC 73.6 16.6 11.8 20.1 11.7 2.2 -7.7
Transdigm Group Incorporated TDG 60.1 34.0 18.6 59.8 46.7 11.2 -15.7
Median of companies shown 124.1 35.2 18.6 20.3 12.4 10.6 10.1

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2023 · Revenue: 10,387 $M 2023 · Operating income: 507 $M 2023 · Net income: -4,628 $M 2024 · Revenue: 14,015 $M 2024 · Operating income: 742 $M 2024 · Net income: 791 $M 2025 · Revenue: 18,674 $M 2025 · Operating income: -2,589 $M 2025 · Net income: -4,937 $M
202320242025
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2023 10,387 507 -4,628 – 4,520 – –
2024 14,015 742 791 0.43 5,776 25,804 57,062
2025 18,674 -2,589 -4,937 -2.53 6,785 41,325 92,079

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 1 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Research

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus –
Analyst Ratings –
Price Target (average) 220.68$
Distance to price 42.6% The price target sits 42.6% above the current price.

Estimates by Fiscal Year

Estimates by Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year EPS Estimate ($) EPS Range ($) Revenue Estimate ($M) Expected Growth Analysts
12/31/2026 0.07 -1.52 – 0.91 44,740 – 15
12/31/2027 1.82 -0.68 – 3.19 106,578 1,058.1% 17

Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Sells AI

SPCX (SpaceX inkl. xAI und X, rückwirkend konsolidiert) verkauft KI direkt: Das AI-Segment (Grok-Frontier-Modelle, X-Plattform, KI-Rechenzentren) erlöste 2025 laut IPO-Prospekt 3.201 Mio. $ (u. a. Grok- und X-Abos, Werbung, Daten-Lizenzen); KI-Produkte werden ausdrücklich auch an US-Behörden verkauft, und Starship soll orbitale KI-Recheninfrastruktur ermöglichen. KI ist zugleich größter Verlustbringer (Segmentergebnis 2025: −6.355 Mio. $) — Umsatzquelle ist sie unstrittig.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„xAI, which was founded in 2023 and acquired by SpaceX in early 2026, is now an integral pillar of our vertically integrated company. We are rapidly constructing AI compute infrastructure—starting on Earth with the goal of extending to space—at industry-leading pace and cost efficiency. Our infrastructure supports training and inference for Grok, which has emerged as one of the world's most advanced frontier models."

xAI, 2023 gegründet und Anfang 2026 von SpaceX übernommen, ist heute eine tragende Säule unseres vertikal integrierten Unternehmens. Wir errichten KI-Recheninfrastruktur in branchenführendem Tempo und mit branchenführender Kosteneffizienz — beginnend auf der Erde, mit dem Ziel, sie in den Weltraum auszudehnen. Unsere Infrastruktur unterstützt Training und Inferenz für Grok, das sich zu einem der fortschrittlichsten Frontier-Modelle der Welt entwickelt hat.

424B4 · 2026-06-12 · View SEC filing

„These contracts focus mainly on launch services, spacecraft development, and satellite deployment, and artificial intelligence products."

Diese Verträge konzentrieren sich hauptsächlich auf Startdienstleistungen, Raumfahrzeug-Entwicklung und Satelliten-Stationierung sowie auf Produkte der künstlichen Intelligenz.

424B4 · 2026-06-12 · View SEC filing

„an increase in revenue from our AI segment of $581 million as advertising, Grok and X subscriptions, and data licensing arrangements grew."

ein Anstieg des Umsatzes unseres AI-Segments um 581 Millionen US-Dollar, da Werbung, Grok- und X-Abonnements sowie Daten-Lizenzvereinbarungen wuchsen.

424B4 · 2026-06-12 · View SEC filing

Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Quality check

AAQS

4/10

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 138.9%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 138.9%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT –
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
  • Return on equity > 15% -17.7%
  • ROCE > 15% -3.7%
  • Expected return > 10% 136.1%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Sep 11, 2026 Gracias Antonio J. Director Other 42,790,223 – –

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

Employees
21,000
Headquarters
Starbase, TX
Address
1 Rocket Road, 78521 Starbase, United States
Phone
310 363 6000
Website
spacex.com
IPO Date
06/12/2026
ISIN
US84615Q1031

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
Elon R. Musk Founder & CEO 1971
Gwynne E. Shotwell President & COO 1964
Bret W. Johnsen CFO & Secretary 1969
Michael Sagan Senior Director of Legal –
Timothy R. Hughes Senior VP of Global Business & Government Affairs –
Richard J. Lee Treasurer –

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 08/14/2026 SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP (SPCX): Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
  • 08/04/2026 SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP (SPCX): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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