Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Whoever buys today pays roughly 40 times earnings for the assumption that a better April 2026 becomes a better cycle — and gets best-in-class quality with a fortress balance sheet and spare network capacity as future operating leverage. Whoever waits can check three data points in the coming quarterly reports (10-Q): LTL tonnage per day (is volume turning, not just price?), the operating ratio (does the deleveraging stop?) and revenue per hundredweight (does pricing discipline hold?). The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Old Dominion Freight Line (Nasdaq: ODFL), the less-than-truckload specialist from North Carolina, ranks seventh in our in-house Terry Smith quality scanner (U.S. selection, as of July 18, 2026): 99 percent on-time service, almost no debt, an equity ratio around 79 percent. We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026 — and they also tell the other story: revenue is shrinking for the third year in a row, the famous operating ratio deteriorates year after year, and the stock gained almost 40 percent in six months before the freight recovery showed up in the numbers. Not investment advice — just the question of whether quality can substitute for a cycle.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 18, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ODFL since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 12 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 212.10 $ — 70% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIOld Dominion ist ein LTL-Frachtführer ohne KI-Umsatzquelle, belegt aber operativen KI-Einsatz: Das Technologie-Kapitel des 10-K (Item 1 „Business“) nennt ausdrücklich den eigenen Einsatz von Cloud-Technik und Künstlicher Intelligenz zur Verbesserung der Dienste, und die Risk Factors bestätigen „We currently incorporate AI solutions into our business“. Die KI-Risikofaktoren (Wettbewerber mit KI-Anwendungen, fehlerhafte KI-Ergebnisse, KI-erschwerte Cyberabwehr) knüpfen an diesen eigenen Einsatz bzw. an branchenübliche Technologie-Anpassung an und belegen keine konkrete Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells — Vorrang-Regel: nutzt vor neutral, kein Verkaufs- oder Bedroht-Tatbestand.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We continually seek to upgrade and enhance our technological capabilities, including our use of cloud-based technology and artificial intelligence (“AI”)."
Wir sind fortlaufend bestrebt, unsere technologischen Fähigkeiten auszubauen und zu verbessern, einschließlich unseres Einsatzes von Cloud-Technologie und Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).
„We currently incorporate AI solutions into our business, and these applications may become more important over time."
Wir integrieren derzeit KI-Lösungen in unser Geschäft, und diese Anwendungen könnten mit der Zeit an Bedeutung gewinnen.
„Our competitors may implement new technology, including AI applications, that could improve their service, price, available capacity or business relationships and increase their market share."
Unsere Wettbewerber könnten neue Technologien einführen, einschließlich KI-Anwendungen, die ihren Service, ihre Preise, ihre verfügbare Kapazität oder ihre Geschäftsbeziehungen verbessern und ihren Marktanteil erhöhen könnten.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-06 · 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-K 2025-02-25
Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 9.1% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 25
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 5.79 | 5.60 – 5.97 | 5,908 | 20.0% | 18 |
| 12/31/2027 | 6.57 | 6.10 – 7.00 | 6,351 | 13.6% | 19 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.22 | -17.40 | 1,386 | -7.30 | 19.00 | 401 | 230 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.19 | -10.70 | 1,375 | -5.80 | 18.50 | 337 | 248 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.27 | -14.50 | 1,408 | -6.10 | 19.10 | 286 | 99 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.28 | -10.40 | 1,407 | -4.30 | 19.30 | 438 | 344 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.09 | -10.10 | 1,307 | -5.70 | 17.60 | 310 | 265 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.14 | -4.60 | 1,335 | -2.90 | 17.90 | 374 | 311 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,992 | 484 | 296 | 1.19 | 566 | 1,851 | 2,696 |
| 2017 | 3,358 | 576 | 464 | 1.88 | 536 | 2,277 | 3,068 |
| 2018 | 4,044 | 817 | 606 | 2.46 | 900 | 2,680 | 3,545 |
| 2019 | 4,109 | 819 | 616 | 2.55 | 933 | 3,081 | 3,996 |
| 2020 | 4,015 | 907 | 673 | 2.84 | 1,213 | 3,680 | 4,822 |
| 2021 | 5,256 | 1,392 | 1,034 | 4.44 | 1,692 | 3,653 | 4,839 |
| 2022 | 6,260 | 1,841 | 1,377 | 6.09 | 1,692 | 3,653 | 4,839 |
| 2023 | 5,866 | 1,641 | 1,240 | 5.63 | 1,569 | 4,258 | 5,512 |
| 2024 | 5,815 | 1,544 | 1,186 | 5.48 | 1,659 | 4,245 | 5,491 |
| 2025 | 5,496 | 1,361 | 1,024 | 4.88 | 1,370 | 4,311 | 5,588 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
99 percent on-time service and a 0.1 percent cargo claims ratio in fiscal year 2025 — on that basis, revenue per hundredweight rose 3.9 percent despite the slump (4.8 percent excluding fuel surcharges; Q1 2026: +4.4 percent). Pricing power is built at the loading dock, not in the sales office (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
An equity ratio around 79 percent, only $40 million of debt, an Altman Z-score around 10; in 2025, $730.3 million went into buybacks and $235.7 million into dividends (together ~94 percent of profit), and the quarterly dividend rose to $0.29 in early 2026 (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q).
Third shrinking year in a row: revenue down from $6,260.1 million (2022) to $5,496.4 million (2025), tonnage −9.1 percent in 2025, January 2026 −9.6 percent per day; the improvement from spring 2026 (April: revenue/day +7.6 percent) came from prices, while tonnage kept falling (−6.1 percent) (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q).
The operating ratio deteriorated from 72.0 (2023) through 73.4 (2024) and 75.2 (2025) to 76.2 percent in Q1 2026 — deleveraging of the fixed-cost network plus rising depreciation (6.6 percent of revenue in 2025); the 10-K itself warns of excess capacity from prior investments (10-K FY 2025, Item 1A; 10-Q).
A P/E around 39 to 46 and a P/S of 7 to 8 (buyback anchor ~$185, Q1 2026, and scanner data as of July 18, 2026) after a 38 percent six-month rally — the consensus estimates (EPS $5.46 for 2026, $6.36 for 2027) already presuppose the earnings turn; no cushion is priced in for a fourth year of freight recession.
By its SEC filings, Old Dominion is one of the best transportation companies in North America: 99 percent on-time service, price increases in the middle of a freight recession, a balance sheet practically free of debt and a network of 260 mostly owned terminals with a built-in upturn reserve. But the direction of the numbers has pointed down for three years: revenue and tonnage are shrinking, the operating ratio deteriorates year after year, and the valuation at roughly 40 times earnings already contains the economic turn as a precondition — evidenced, so far, by a single better month with freight volumes still falling. Not investment advice.
- ODFL reached the research list via rank 7 in the in-house Terry Smith quality scanner (U.S. selection, as of July 18, 2026); additionally a hit in momentum filters (stage-2 trend, institutional accumulation). A quality scanner measures financial statements, not cycle direction — it never replaces the cross-check in the SEC filings.
- Valuation figures are deliberately anchored evergreen: the price anchor is Old Dominion's own Q1 2026 buyback reported in the 10-Q ($88.9 million for roughly 480,000 shares, about $185 on average); P/E and P/S computed from TTM figures as of 03/31/2026, supplemented by the scanner data cut-off of July 18, 2026. Analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
- Identity verified via EDGAR submissions (CIK 0000878927, Virginia corporation, Nasdaq: ODFL, domestic filer 10-K/10-Q, no Form 15; the only former name is the styling variant "OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC/VA" until August 2019). Fiscal year ends December 31.
About the Company
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ist ein Stückgut-Spediteur (Less-than-Truckload) in den USA und Nordamerika.
| Employees | 20,173 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Thomasville, NC |
| Address | 500 Old Dominion Way, 27360 Thomasville, United States |
| Phone | 336 889 5000 |
| Website | odfl.com |
| IPO Date | 24. Oct 1991 |
| ISIN | US6795801009 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 03/28/2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David S. Congdon | Executive Chairman of the Board | 1957 |
| Kevin M. Freeman | President, CEO & Director | 1959 |
| Adam N. Satterfield CPA | Executive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO | 1975 |
| Gregory B. Plemmons | Executive VP & COO | 1966 |
| Ross H. Parr | Senior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary | 1972 |
| Cecil E. Overbey Jr. | Senior Vice President of Strategic Development | 1962 |
| Earl E. Congdon | Chairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor | 1931 |
| Clayton G. Brinker | VP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer | 1986 |
| Jack Lawrence Atkins | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Sam Faucette | Vice President of Safety & Compliance | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.