Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today pays roughly 40 times earnings for the assumption that a better April 2026 becomes a better cycle — and gets best-in-class quality with a fortress balance sheet and spare network capacity as future operating leverage. Whoever waits can check three data points in the coming quarterly reports (10-Q): LTL tonnage per day (is volume turning, not just price?), the operating ratio (does the deleveraging stop?) and revenue per hundredweight (does pricing discipline hold?). The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
By its SEC filings, Old Dominion is one of the best transportation companies in North America: 99 percent on-time service, price increases in the middle of a freight recession, a balance sheet practically free of debt and a network of 260 mostly owned terminals with a built-in upturn reserve. But the direction of the numbers has pointed down for three years: revenue and tonnage are shrinking, the operating ratio deteriorates year after year, and the valuation at roughly 40 times earnings already contains the economic turn as a precondition — evidenced, so far, by a single better month with freight volumes still falling. Not investment advice.
Service quality & pricing power
99 percent on-time service and a 0.1 percent cargo claims ratio in fiscal year 2025 — on that basis, revenue per hundredweight rose 3.9 percent despite the slump (4.8 percent excluding fuel surcharges; Q1 2026: +4.4 percent). Pricing power is built at the loading dock, not in the sales office (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Balance sheet & capital returns
An equity ratio around 79 percent, only $40 million of debt, an Altman Z-score around 10; in 2025, $730.3 million went into buybacks and $235.7 million into dividends (together ~94 percent of profit), and the quarterly dividend rose to $0.29 in early 2026 (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q).
Volume & cycle
Third shrinking year in a row: revenue down from $6,260.1 million (2022) to $5,496.4 million (2025), tonnage −9.1 percent in 2025, January 2026 −9.6 percent per day; the improvement from spring 2026 (April: revenue/day +7.6 percent) came from prices, while tonnage kept falling (−6.1 percent) (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q).
Margin / operating ratio
The operating ratio deteriorated from 72.0 (2023) through 73.4 (2024) and 75.2 (2025) to 76.2 percent in Q1 2026 — deleveraging of the fixed-cost network plus rising depreciation (6.6 percent of revenue in 2025); the 10-K itself warns of excess capacity from prior investments (10-K FY 2025, Item 1A; 10-Q).
Valuation
A P/E around 39 to 46 and a P/S of 7 to 8 (buyback anchor ~$185, Q1 2026, and scanner data as of July 18, 2026) after a 38 percent six-month rally — the consensus estimates (EPS $5.46 for 2026, $6.36 for 2027) already presuppose the earnings turn; no cushion is priced in for a fourth year of freight recession.
Worth Noting
ODFL reached the research list via rank 7 in the in-house Terry Smith quality scanner (U.S. selection, as of July 18, 2026); additionally a hit in momentum filters (stage-2 trend, institutional accumulation). A quality scanner measures financial statements, not cycle direction — it never replaces the cross-check in the SEC filings.
Valuation figures are deliberately anchored evergreen: the price anchor is Old Dominion's own Q1 2026 buyback reported in the 10-Q ($88.9 million for roughly 480,000 shares, about $185 on average); P/E and P/S computed from TTM figures as of 03/31/2026, supplemented by the scanner data cut-off of July 18, 2026. Analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Identity verified via EDGAR submissions (CIK 0000878927, Virginia corporation, Nasdaq: ODFL, domestic filer 10-K/10-Q, no Form 15; the only former name is the styling variant "OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC/VA" until August 2019). Fiscal year ends December 31.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ODFL since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 126.30 $ to 248.70 $ · Last price: 175.10 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/17/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Trucking
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line Inc ODFL | 36.4 | 36.2 | 20.6 | 39.6 | 23.8 | -5.5 | 19.3 |
| XPO Logistics Inc XPO | 20.8 | 60.3 | 19.3 | 19.0 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 35.2 |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. KNX | 11.0 | 318.9 | 13.7 | 24.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 61.8 |
| Saia Inc SAIA | 9.1 | 35.3 | 15.2 | 23.6 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 10.9 |
| Schneider National Inc SNDR | 5.7 | 58.1 | 9.3 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 7.3 | 41.7 |
| RXO Inc. RXO | 3.4 | – | 203.1 | 14.9 | -1.3 | 26.2 | 19.1 |
| ArcBest Corp ARCB | 2.9 | – | 15.5 | 8.1 | 0.4 | -4.0 | 85.0 |
| Werner Enterprises Inc WERN | 2.2 | – | 10.8 | 19.0 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 32.2 |
| Marten Transport Ltd MRTN | 1.1 | – | 9.6 | 22.7 | – | -8.3 | 22.8 |
| Median of companies shown | 5.7 | 58.1 | 15.2 | 19.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 32.2 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,992 | 484 | 296 | 1.19 | 566 | 1,851 | 2,696 |
| 2017 | 3,358 | 576 | 464 | 1.88 | 536 | 2,277 | 3,068 |
| 2018 | 4,044 | 817 | 606 | 2.46 | 900 | 2,680 | 3,545 |
| 2019 | 4,109 | 819 | 616 | 2.55 | 933 | 3,081 | 3,996 |
| 2020 | 4,015 | 907 | 673 | 2.84 | 1,213 | 3,680 | 4,822 |
| 2021 | 5,256 | 1,392 | 1,034 | 4.44 | 1,692 | 3,653 | 4,839 |
| 2022 | 6,260 | 1,841 | 1,377 | 6.09 | 1,692 | 3,653 | 4,839 |
| 2023 | 5,866 | 1,641 | 1,240 | 5.63 | 1,569 | 4,258 | 5,512 |
| 2024 | 5,815 | 1,544 | 1,186 | 5.48 | 1,659 | 4,245 | 5,491 |
| 2025 | 5,496 | 1,361 | 1,024 | 4.88 | 1,370 | 4,311 | 5,588 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.22 | -17.40 | 1,386 | -7.30 | 19.00 | 401 | 230 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.19 | -10.70 | 1,375 | -5.80 | 18.50 | 337 | 248 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.27 | -14.50 | 1,408 | -6.10 | 19.10 | 286 | 99 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.28 | -10.40 | 1,407 | -4.30 | 19.30 | 438 | 344 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.09 | -10.10 | 1,307 | -5.70 | 17.60 | 310 | 265 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.14 | -4.60 | 1,335 | -2.90 | 17.90 | 374 | 311 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.68 | 32.30 | 1,554 | 10.40 | 22.60 | 273 | 273 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 16 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Aktien.Guide
Dividends
Momentum & Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Mike Webster: Swing Trading List
- Oliver Kell: Strength on Down Day
- Stan Weinstein: Checklist
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
- Strength on Stress Days
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 5.81 | 5.60 – 5.97 | 5,914 | 20.4% | 20 |
| 12/31/2027 | 6.60 | 6.20 – 7.00 | 6,379 | 14.1% | 20 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 14.4% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $1.11B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $36.42B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $4.27B |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 61.8% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 7.6% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Old Dominion ist ein LTL-Frachtführer ohne KI-Umsatzquelle, belegt aber operativen KI-Einsatz: Das Technologie-Kapitel des 10-K (Item 1 „Business“) nennt ausdrücklich den eigenen Einsatz von Cloud-Technik und Künstlicher Intelligenz zur Verbesserung der Dienste, und die Risk Factors bestätigen „We currently incorporate AI solutions into our business“. Die KI-Risikofaktoren (Wettbewerber mit KI-Anwendungen, fehlerhafte KI-Ergebnisse, KI-erschwerte Cyberabwehr) knüpfen an diesen eigenen Einsatz bzw. an branchenübliche Technologie-Anpassung an und belegen keine konkrete Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells — Vorrang-Regel: nutzt vor neutral, kein Verkaufs- oder Bedroht-Tatbestand.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We continually seek to upgrade and enhance our technological capabilities, including our use of cloud-based technology and artificial intelligence (“AI”)."
Wir sind fortlaufend bestrebt, unsere technologischen Fähigkeiten auszubauen und zu verbessern, einschließlich unseres Einsatzes von Cloud-Technologie und Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
„We currently incorporate AI solutions into our business, and these applications may become more important over time."
Wir integrieren derzeit KI-Lösungen in unser Geschäft, und diese Anwendungen könnten mit der Zeit an Bedeutung gewinnen.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
„Our competitors may implement new technology, including AI applications, that could improve their service, price, available capacity or business relationships and increase their market share."
Unsere Wettbewerber könnten neue Technologien einführen, einschließlich KI-Anwendungen, die ihren Service, ihre Preise, ihre verfügbare Kapazität oder ihre Geschäftsbeziehungen verbessern und ihren Marktanteil erhöhen könnten.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-06 · 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-K 2025-02-25
Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -4.2%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 8.1%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -2.5%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 11.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 32.2%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.0 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 1,149 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 26.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 8.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
10/10 Quality stockThe AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 7.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 7.7%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 12.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 16.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 0.0x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 26.1%
- Return on equity > 15% 23.7%
- ROCE > 15% 26.7%
- Expected return > 10% 19.4%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Overbey Cecil E. Jr. | SVP - Strategic Development | Sell | 19,952 | 198.39 | 3,958,277 |
The company
About the Company
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ist ein Stückgut-Spediteur (Less-than-Truckload) in den USA und Nordamerika.
- Employees
- 20,173
- Headquarters
- Thomasville, NC
- Address
- 500 Old Dominion Way, 27360 Thomasville, United States
- Phone
- 336 889 5000
- Website
- odfl.com
- IPO Date
- 10/24/1991
- ISIN
- US6795801009
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 03/28/2024
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 03/25/2020
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 09/10/2012
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David S. Congdon | Executive Chairman of the Board | 1957 |
| Kevin M. Freeman | President, CEO & Director | 1959 |
| Adam N. Satterfield CPA | Executive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO | 1975 |
| Gregory B. Plemmons | Executive VP & COO | 1966 |
| Ross H. Parr | Senior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary | 1972 |
| Cecil E. Overbey Jr. | Senior Vice President of Strategic Development | 1962 |
| Earl E. Congdon | Chairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor | 1931 |
| Clayton G. Brinker | VP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer | 1986 |
| Jack Lawrence Atkins | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Sam Faucette | Vice President of Safety & Compliance | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/03/2026 OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/29/2026 OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/23/2026 OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (ODFL): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.