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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Technology · Semiconductors · listed since 1999

219.30$ +2.5% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Quality confirmed Delivers, discloses less

Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.

Why this colour

Anyone holding the stock holds the most profitable company in stock market history at a price that is fair for this quality — the operating substance and the balance sheet carry it. A new entry, by contrast, is a deliberate triple bet: that three big customers keep ordering at today's pace, that the financing loop of stakes, guarantees and cloud contracts stays an amplifier of the upswing rather than of the downswing, and that geopolitics and competition authorities leave the model untouched. Whoever understands all three bets and wants to carry them finds unique quality here; whoever has no answer to one of them waits — for instance for the next quarters with clarity on the OpenAI agreement and the customer mix. The decision is yours.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

Nvidia is the rare case in which the most valuable company in the world is at the same time a value scanner hit: 65 percent growth, 56 percent net margin, a fortress balance sheet and a P/E of about 29 — the Magic Formula does find genuinely exceptional quality at a fair price here. Set against this are findings no scanner can price: more than half of revenue comes from three direct customers, the company increasingly takes stakes in its own buyers ($43.4 billion investment book, $27 billion in commitments, OpenAI agreement being finalized), the China business is politically cut to zero, and $119 billion in purchase commitments bet that demand will hold, of which Nvidia's own revenue is the most important proof. Not investment advice.

Market position & product

The de facto standard of AI infrastructure: 90 percent of revenue from the data center business, CUDA software as a developer moat, complete systems instead of single chips; half of data center revenue now comes from customers beyond the hyperscalers (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).

Earning power & balance sheet

$215.9 billion in revenue (+65 percent) and $120.1 billion in net income in fiscal year 2026, $102.7 billion in operating cash flow, $62.6 billion in cash/securities against $8.5 billion in notes, Altman-Z about 16 — plus $40.4 billion in buybacks and a dividend raised to $0.25 per quarter in May 2026.

Customer concentration & loop

Three direct customers = 54 percent of quarterly revenue and 64 percent of receivables; at the same time $43.4 billion investment book, $27 billion in committed investments, $13 billion non-refundable Groq license, $30 billion in cloud purchases from its own customers, OpenAI agreement being finalized — and information requests from competition authorities in five jurisdictions (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).

Geopolitics & advance-outlay lever

China data center business practically zero ($4.5 billion H20 write-down, $60 million license revenue, Washington's 15 percent expectation, Beijing advising customers against); plus $119 billion in purchase commitments (+$24 billion in one quarter) and $25.8 billion in inventories, whose valuation is a critical audit matter of the auditor (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).

Valuation & profit quality

A P/E of about 29 and PEG below 1 are moderate for 65 percent growth (data as of July 8, 2026) — but a P/S of about 19.5 and P/B of about 24 price in sustained perfection, the latest quarterly profit included $15.9 billion in valuation gains on stakes, and insiders reported 16 sells versus 4 buys.

Worth Noting

Nvidia has an offset fiscal year (ending in late January): "fiscal year 2026" ended on January 25, 2026, "first quarter of 2027" on April 26, 2026 — the periods are dated in the text in each case.

The net income of the first quarter of 2027 ($58.3 billion) included $15.9 billion in unrealized valuation gains on securities (among them the Intel stake); the operating result of $53.5 billion is the more reliable measure.

Price and valuation figures are dated to July 8, 2026 (about $196 per share, about $4,945 billion market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.

The scanner membership was checked twice: data as of July 8, 2026 (seven value/quality scanners) and a live check on July 14, 2026 (Greenblatt confirmed; the rest of the scanner set drifts day to day).

Nvidia does not name the three big customers in the mandatory filings; the "AI research and deployment company" with a significant indirect revenue contribution also remains unnamed there.

Read the Full Deep Dive Nvidia Stock: $120 Billion in Profit — and More Than Half the Revenue Hangs on Three Customers Nvidia is the star witness of the AI boom: $215.9 billion in revenue (+65 percent) and $120.1 billion in net income for fiscal year 2026, roughly 90 percent of it from the data center business. We read the mandatory filings to the U.S. securities regulator — and that is where the other half of the story lives: three direct customers who most recently made up 54 percent of revenue, an investment book that doubled to $43.4 billion in a single quarter, $13 billion for a non-refundable license from rival Groq, a China business that export controls have effectively cut to zero, and $119 billion in purchase commitments. Our value scanner based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula lights up anyway. Not investment advice — just a sober walk through a loop in which sellers, customers and financiers increasingly carry the same names. Read the analysis →

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NVDA since then.

Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.

Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 165.20 $ to 235.70 $ · Last price: 219.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 5,540.3$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 24,147m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 95.8%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. 2.2

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. -8.90%
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. 16.50%
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. 3.50%
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). 7.40%
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. -17.3%
Perf. 1Y ?Price performance over the last 12 months. 29.11%
Perf. 3Y ?Price performance over the last 3 years. 401.13%
Perf. 5Y ?Price performance over the last 5 years. 905.96%
Perf. 10Y ?Price performance over the last 10 years. 14,128.07%
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (01/22/1999) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. 584,806.67%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 215.90$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 213.90$
MA 200 Days ?Moving average of the last 200 trading days — the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. 198.20$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 51.7
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 40.2%
Volatility 250 Days ?Price swings over the last 250 trading days (roughly one market year), annualized. 38.0%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E. 30.4
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 24.0
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey. 0.5
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. 24.6
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. 18.3
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. 22.4
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up. 42.7

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. 74.7%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. 65.6%
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. 63.7%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? 114.3%
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). 53.6%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. 75.3%
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. 0.1
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. fortress balance sheet 16.40
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. 7 out of 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 85.20%
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 214.50%
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. 65.47%
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 40.84%
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 42.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield ?Annual dividend divided by the current price: what percentage of your investment comes back as a payout each year. 0.46%
Dividend Per Share (TTM) ?Sum of dividends paid per share over the last 12 months. 0.52$
Payout Ratio ?Share of profit paid out as dividends. Over 100% means the company is paying out more than it earns — not sustainable long-term. 7.4%
Years Without a Cut ?How many years in a row the dividend hasn't been cut — a measure of reliability. 13Years
Increase Streak ?How many years in a row the dividend has been raised — the gold standard for dividend payers. 2Years

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line. 2
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks. 62
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth. Top 10% 91
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. A (84 out of 100)

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Semiconductors

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 5,540.3 30.4 22.4 74.7 65.6 65.5 29.1
Broadcom Inc AVGO 1,652.3 55.2 33.7 75.5 49.0 23.9 1.1
Micron Technology Inc MU 1,269.8 20.7 15.8 72.6 80.4 48.9 512.0
Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD 943.2 177.7 77.8 55.7 14.4 34.3 242.5
Intel Corporation INTC 546.8 – 145.4 38.9 6.9 -0.5 337.0
Arm Holdings plc ARM 282.9 267.6 221.2 97.5 7.6 22.8 58.6
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN 234.9 39.7 26.1 58.3 37.8 13.1 46.9
Marvell Technology Group Ltd MRVL 232.5 79.7 45.0 52.2 14.5 42.1 239.9
Qualcomm Incorporated QCOM 216.2 18.6 14.9 54.2 22.1 13.7 16.6
Median of companies shown 546.8 47.4 33.7 58.3 22.1 23.9 58.6

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2017 · Revenue: 6,910 $M 2017 · Operating income: 1,934 $M 2017 · Net income: 1,666 $M 2018 · Revenue: 9,714 $M 2018 · Operating income: 3,210 $M 2018 · Net income: 3,047 $M 2019 · Revenue: 11,716 $M 2019 · Operating income: 3,804 $M 2019 · Net income: 4,141 $M 2020 · Revenue: 10,918 $M 2020 · Operating income: 2,846 $M 2020 · Net income: 2,796 $M 2021 · Revenue: 16,675 $M 2021 · Operating income: 4,532 $M 2021 · Net income: 4,332 $M 2022 · Revenue: 26,914 $M 2022 · Operating income: 10,041 $M 2022 · Net income: 9,752 $M 2023 · Revenue: 26,974 $M 2023 · Operating income: 4,224 $M 2023 · Net income: 4,368 $M 2024 · Revenue: 60,922 $M 2024 · Operating income: 32,972 $M 2024 · Net income: 29,760 $M 2025 · Revenue: 130,497 $M 2025 · Operating income: 81,453 $M 2025 · Net income: 72,880 $M 2026 · Revenue: 215,938 $M 2026 · Operating income: 130,387 $M 2026 · Net income: 120,067 $M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2017 6,910 1,934 1,666 0.06 1,672 5,762 9,841
2018 9,714 3,210 3,047 0.12 3,502 7,471 11,241
2019 11,716 3,804 4,141 0.17 3,743 9,342 13,292
2020 10,918 2,846 2,796 0.11 4,761 12,204 17,315
2021 16,675 4,532 4,332 0.17 5,822 16,893 28,791
2022 26,914 10,041 9,752 0.38 9,108 26,612 44,187
2023 26,974 4,224 4,368 0.17 5,641 22,101 41,182
2024 60,922 32,972 29,760 1.19 28,090 42,978 65,728
2025 130,497 81,453 72,880 2.94 64,089 79,327 111,601
2026 215,938 130,387 120,067 4.90 102,718 157,293 206,803

Quarters

Quarterly Figures

Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.

Revenue & Profit

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Margins

Per Share

Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.

None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.

These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.

The figures could not be loaded right now.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2025: Q1 · 39,331.0 $M Q1 2025: Q2 · 44,062.0 $M Q2 2025: Q3 · 46,743.0 $M Q3 2025: Q4 · 57,006.0 $M Q4 2026: Q1 · 68,127.0 $M Q1 2026: Q2 · 81,615.0 $M Q2 2026: Q3 · 96,221.0 $M Q3

Source: fundamental data

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2025: Q1 0.89 81.20 39,331 77.90 56.20 16,629 15,552
2025: Q2 0.76 27.60 44,062 69.20 42.60 27,414 26,187
2025: Q3 1.08 61.20 46,743 55.60 56.50 15,365 13,470
2025: Q4 1.30 67.20 57,006 62.50 56.00 23,751 22,115
2026: Q1 1.76 96.60 68,127 73.20 63.10 36,188 34,904
2026: Q2 2.39 213.40 81,615 85.20 71.50 50,344 48,587
2026: Q3 2.46 127.80 96,221 105.90 62.00 24,077 24,077

What Do These Terms Mean?

EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Compare with other stocks →

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 13 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Backtested Scanners

Best Hits

Growth

Quality & Balance Sheet

Aktien.Guide

Dividends

Research

Risk & Weakness

Value & GARP

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus Strong Sell 1 = Strong buy … 5 = Strong sell
Analyst Ratings 63
Price Target (average) 327.18$
Distance to price 49.2% The price target sits 49.2% above the current price.

Distribution of Recommendations

Strong Buy 43
Buy 12
Hold 7
Sell 0
Strong Sell 1

Estimates by Fiscal Year

Estimates by Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year EPS Estimate ($) EPS Range ($) Revenue Estimate ($M) Expected Growth Analysts
01/31/2027 9.30 9.01 – 10.10 411,293 95.1% 49
01/31/2028 15.57 9.80 – 18.75 677,920 67.3% 53

Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.

Valuation

What is priced in?

Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.

Today’s market value implies roughly 18.3% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).

What is priced in?
Free cash flow (last twelve months) $127.01B
Market cap $5.54T
Free cash flow in year ten $683.42B
Terminal value as a share of market value 65.0%

For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 83.1% per year.

It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.

A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Sells AI

Geprüft am 14.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 (endete 25.01.2026, eingereicht 25.02.2026), den 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (eingereicht 26.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 26.04.2026, eingereicht 20.05.2026). Befund: KI-Produkte sind nicht nur eine Umsatzquelle, sondern DIE Umsatzquelle — Nvidia bezeichnet sich im 10-K selbst als „data center scale AI infrastructure company“, also als KI-Infrastruktur-Unternehmen im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab. Das Rechenzentrums-Segment (KI-Beschleuniger, Netzwerktechnik, CUDA-Software) erlöste im Geschäftsjahr 2026 193,7 von 215,9 Milliarden US-Dollar Gesamtumsatz — rund 90 Prozent —, und der Bericht führt das Wachstum von 65 Prozent ausdrücklich auf die Plattformwechsel „accelerated computing and AI“ zurück. Im ersten Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2027 wuchs der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz um weitere 92 Prozent auf 75,2 Milliarden US-Dollar, getragen vom Hochlauf der Blackwell-KI-Systeme. Verkaufte KI-Produkte samt Software (CUDA, NVIDIA AI Enterprise) sind damit der Kern des Geschäftsmodells; die Vorrang-Regel (verkauft vor bedroht/nutzt) greift eindeutig, auch wenn die Risikokapitel zugleich KI-bezogene Gegenwinde (Exportkontrollen, kundeneigene Chips, Regulierungsanfragen) nennen.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing to help solve the most challenging computational problems. NVIDIA is now a data center scale AI infrastructure company reshaping all industries."

NVIDIA hat das beschleunigte Rechnen begründet, um die anspruchsvollsten Rechenprobleme zu lösen. NVIDIA ist heute ein KI-Infrastruktur-Unternehmen im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab, das alle Branchen umformt.

10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing

„Revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $215.9 billion, up 65% from a year ago. Data Center revenue for fiscal year 2026 was up 68% from a year ago. The strong year-on-year growth was driven by the major platform shifts – accelerated computing and AI."

Der Umsatz im Geschäftsjahr 2026 betrug 215,9 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 65 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz stieg im Geschäftsjahr 2026 um 68 Prozent. Das starke Wachstum wurde von den großen Plattformwechseln getrieben — beschleunigtes Rechnen und KI.

10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing

„Revenue was $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year ago and up 20% sequentially. Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% from a year ago and up 21% sequentially, driven by the ramp of our Blackwell 300 products and demand for our InfiniBand, Spectrum-X Ethernet, and NVLink solutions."

Der Umsatz betrug 81,6 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 85 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr und von 20 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz lag bei 75,2 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 92 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr und 21 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal — getrieben vom Hochlauf unserer Blackwell-300-Produkte und der Nachfrage nach unseren InfiniBand-, Spectrum-X-Ethernet- und NVLink-Lösungen.

10-Q · 2026-05-20 · View SEC filing

Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-20 · 10-Q 2025-11-19 · 10-Q 2025-08-27 · 10-Q 2025-05-28 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-26

Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Earnings calls

What the Earnings Calls Reveal

From 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q4 NVIDIA beat every revenue outlook it had issued, nine quarters in a row, most recently 82 billion dollars against a guided 78. The margin target was met, Spectrum-X exceeded its own promise several times over and Blackwell Ultra arrived on schedule. Exactly one dated commitment was missed: the original Blackwell shipment timing, which management disclosed itself in the very next call and then overdelivered on in revenue. What remains is a question of reporting discipline: two metrics management introduced itself, the software run rate and the inference share, vanish from the calls without a closing figure.

Unremarkable Delivers, discloses less 10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026

Nine quarters, nine beats

From 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q4 NVIDIA beat every revenue outlook it gave. For 2025-Q1 the guide was 24 billion dollars and 26 was delivered; for 2026-Q3 it was 54 against 57, for 2026-Q4 65 against 68 and for 2027-Q1 78 against 82 billion. Gross margin landed where it was promised too: the mid-seventies target for the end of the fiscal year, repeated from 2025-Q4 onward, was met in 2026-Q4 at 75.2 percent. This hit rate is the most solid part of the file and we weight it accordingly.

The software metric vanishes without a final figure

In 2024-Q4 NVIDIA first named a one billion dollar annual run rate for software, services and support and put the list price of NVIDIA AI Enterprise at 4,500 dollars per GPU per year. In 2025-Q2 that became a statement that the business would approach a 2 billion dollar annual run rate by the end of the fiscal year; in 2025-Q3, with an interim figure of 1.5 billion, it became an exit above 2 billion. In the closing quarter 2025-Q4 the number is simply absent, with no final value and no explanation, and across the six following calls up to 2027-Q1 it never reappears. For scale: this is a small line, roughly 2 billion of run rate against 130.5 billion of fiscal 2025 group revenue. Whether the self-set target was met still cannot be answered from the transcripts.

Inference share: figure gone, question unanswered

For three calls in a row NVIDIA gave a hard number: roughly 40 percent of data center revenue came from inference (2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, and more than 40 percent in 2025-Q2). From 2025-Q4 onward that turned into the unquantified phrase that the vast majority of compute today is inference. When an analyst asked explicitly in 2026-Q3 where the percentage would go over the coming year, no number came back, only the remark that it is hard to know what the share will be at any given point in time. In fairness, the figure was never a reported segment number but always flagged as the company's own estimate. As a support for the inference story it has nonetheless been unverifiable since 2025-Q4.

Blackwell: late start, target held

In 2025-Q1 the message was that Blackwell was in full production, that production shipments would start the following quarter, ramp the quarter after, and that customers would have data centers standing in the fourth quarter. The start slipped: nothing shipped in 2025-Q2, and 13,000 samples went to customers in 2025-Q3. The cause was a mask change to improve yields, which NVIDIA raised itself in the very next call. The ramp began in 2025-Q4, one quarter later than promised, shipments roughly two. The end point of the commitment was met on time, however: in 2025-Q4 Azure, GCP, AWS and OCI had Blackwell systems standing. On the money side the picture reversed anyway: the several billion dollars of Blackwell revenue guided in 2025-Q2 for 2025-Q4 came in at 11 billion. Jensen Huang spoke in 2025-Q4 of a hiccup that probably cost a couple of months.

China: market closed by policy

In 2024-Q4 China sat in the mid single digit percentage of data center revenue, and management expected a similar range for the following quarter. After the H20 export ban NVIDIA reported in 2026-Q1 a 4.5 billion dollar write-down, 2.5 billion of revenue it could not ship and roughly 8 billion of lost revenue for the following quarter. In 2026-Q2 the CFO did name 2 to 5 billion dollars of H20 revenue for 2026-Q3, but said in the same breath that H20 was explicitly not included in the outlook and that the figure would only materialise if the political situation eased. The condition did not hold: about 50 million dollars were booked, and sizable purchase orders, the CFO said, never came through because of geopolitics and rising Chinese competition. From 2026-Q3 China is excluded from the outlook altogether, which keeps the reported numbers cleanly separated from that risk.

New tone, new segments

The tone turns visibly in 2026-Q3, where Jensen Huang opens his remarks unprompted with the observation that there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble and that he sees something very different. It is the first defensive speech in this series. Disclosure practice shifts alongside it: where 2025-Q3 answered a question about the rest of the year with the line that they guide one quarter at a time, multi-year figures appear from 2026-Q3, first 500 billion dollars of Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of 2026, then 1 trillion through the end of 2027 in 2027-Q1. In 2027-Q1 NVIDIA also rebuilds its reporting segments: gaming, professional visualisation and automotive disappear into a combined Edge Computing line, shortly after automotive grew only 6 percent in 2026-Q4 and supply constraints were flagged for gaming. Nine quarters of restated history were provided, but the individual segment figures are gone from the calls themselves.

Management promises

  • 2025-Q1 — Blackwell production shipments start next quarter, ramp the quarter after, customers have data centers standing in the fourth quarter. Nothing shipped in 2025-Q2 and only samples in 2025-Q3; per the 2025-Q4 call the ramp started only there, one quarter later than promised. The cause was a mask change NVIDIA raised itself in the next call, and Huang conceded the slip in 2025-Q4. The last part of the commitment, customer data centers standing in the fourth quarter, was met on time. broken
  • 2025-Q1 — Spectrum-X will become a multibillion dollar product line within a year. In 2026-Q1 NVIDIA reported an annualised run rate above 8 billion dollars for Spectrum-X, above 10 billion in 2026-Q2. Clearly exceeded. kept
  • 2025-Q2 — Software, SaaS and support approach a 2 billion dollar annual run rate by the end of the fiscal year; narrowed to above 2 billion in 2025-Q3. Reaffirmed in 2025-Q3 with an interim 1.5 billion, then never mentioned again. The metric is absent in the closing quarter 2025-Q4 and in all six following calls up to 2027-Q1. No proof can be drawn from the transcripts. open
  • 2025-Q4 — Blackwell Ultra arrives in the second half of the fiscal year and the annual product cadence is maintained. Sampling of GB300 began in 2026-Q1, and in 2026-Q2 NVIDIA reported production shipments and tens of billions in Blackwell Ultra revenue. Schedule met. kept
  • 2026-Q1 — Gross margin returns to the mid-seventies range late in the fiscal year. After 61 percent in 2026-Q1 including the write-down, the adjusted margin rose via 72.7 percent in 2026-Q2 and 73.6 percent in 2026-Q3 to 75.2 percent in 2026-Q4. Target met. kept
  • 2026-Q3 — A definitive agreement with OpenAI covering at least 10 gigawatts of data center capacity is being worked toward. In 2026-Q4 the wording was that they believe they are close. In 2027-Q1 OpenAI is named only as a partner and no signing is confirmed. Still open after two quarters. open
  • 2026-Q4 — Vera Rubin enters production shipments in the second half of the year. In 2027-Q1 the timing was narrowed to the third quarter and called on track. Proof is still outstanding because the period had not elapsed at the review date. open

Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1.

Growth

Growth Score

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

8 of 10 Growth gem
  • Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 100.0%
  • More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 40.8%
  • Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.7%
  • Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 110.2%
  • Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 71.1%
  • Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 10.1%
  • Net debt below twice EBITDA 51,144 m net cash
  • Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -27,810 m
  • Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 74.7%
  • Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.0%

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail

Quality check

AAQS

9/10 Quality stock

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% 46.6%
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 77.2%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 59.7%
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 78.3%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT -0.4x
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50% 57.9%
  • Return on equity > 15% 90.2%
  • ROCE > 15% 74.7%
  • Expected return > 10% 81.4%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Sep 9, 2026 Parker Nicholas P. EVP, Worldwide Field Ops Other 172,507 0.00 –
Sep 4, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 4,611 234.00 1,078,994
Sep 4, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 182,628 233.46 42,636,607
Sep 4, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 237,820 231.17 54,976,302
Sep 4, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 197,180 230.40 45,431,041
Sep 3, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 200,000 229.87 45,974,100
Sep 3, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 1,293 228.27 295,154
Sep 3, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 198,707 227.70 45,244,670
Sep 2, 2026 Coxe Tench Director Other 500,000 0.00 –
Sep 2, 2026 Stevens Mark A Director Sell 300,000 226.27 67,881,120

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

NVIDIA Corporation ist ein Anbieter von KI-Infrastruktur im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab in den USA, Taiwan, China, Hongkong, Europa und international. Das Unternehmen ist in den Segmenten Compute & Networking sowie Graphics tätig.

Employees
42,000
Headquarters
Santa Clara, CA
Address
2788 San Tomas Expressway, 95051 Santa Clara, United States
Phone
408 486 2000
Website
nvidia.com
IPO Date
01/22/1999
ISIN
US67066G1040
Stock Split
10:1 on 06/10/2024
Stock Split
4:1 on 07/20/2021
Stock Split
3:2 on 09/11/2007

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
Jen-Hsun Huang Co-Founder, CEO & Director 1963
Colette M. Kress Executive VP & CFO 1967
Debora Shoquist Executive Vice President of Operations 1955
Timothy S. Teter J.D. Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary 1967
Chris A. Malachowsky Co-Founder –
Scott C. Gawel Chief Accounting Officer 1971
Prof. William J. Dally Ph.D. Chief Scientist & Senior VP of Research 1961
Toshiya Hari Vice President of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance –
Mylene Mangalindan Vice President of Corporate Communications –
Alison Berkley Wagonfeld Chief Marketing Officer 1971

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 09/03/2026 NVIDIA CORP (NVDA): Other Events SEC ↗
  • 08/26/2026 NVIDIA CORP (NVDA): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
  • 08/17/2026 NVIDIA CORP (NVDA): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Regulation FD Disclosure SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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