NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
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Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Anyone holding the stock holds the most profitable company in stock market history at a price that is fair for this quality — the operating substance and the balance sheet carry it. A new entry, by contrast, is a deliberate triple bet: that three big customers keep ordering at today's pace, that the financing loop of stakes, guarantees and cloud contracts stays an amplifier of the upswing rather than of the downswing, and that geopolitics and competition authorities leave the model untouched. Whoever understands all three bets and wants to carry them finds unique quality here; whoever has no answer to one of them waits — for instance for the next quarters with clarity on the OpenAI agreement and the customer mix. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Nvidia is the star witness of the AI boom: $215.9 billion in revenue (+65 percent) and $120.1 billion in net income for fiscal year 2026, roughly 90 percent of it from the data center business. We read the mandatory filings to the U.S. securities regulator — and that is where the other half of the story lives: three direct customers who most recently made up 54 percent of revenue, an investment book that doubled to $43.4 billion in a single quarter, $13 billion for a non-refundable license from rival Groq, a China business that export controls have effectively cut to zero, and $119 billion in purchase commitments. Our value scanner based on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula lights up anyway. Not investment advice — just a sober walk through a loop in which sellers, customers and financiers increasingly carry the same names.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NVDA since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 200.80 $ — 51% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIGeprüft am 14.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2026 (endete 25.01.2026, eingereicht 25.02.2026), den 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (eingereicht 26.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 26.04.2026, eingereicht 20.05.2026). Befund: KI-Produkte sind nicht nur eine Umsatzquelle, sondern DIE Umsatzquelle — Nvidia bezeichnet sich im 10-K selbst als „data center scale AI infrastructure company“, also als KI-Infrastruktur-Unternehmen im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab. Das Rechenzentrums-Segment (KI-Beschleuniger, Netzwerktechnik, CUDA-Software) erlöste im Geschäftsjahr 2026 193,7 von 215,9 Milliarden US-Dollar Gesamtumsatz — rund 90 Prozent —, und der Bericht führt das Wachstum von 65 Prozent ausdrücklich auf die Plattformwechsel „accelerated computing and AI“ zurück. Im ersten Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2027 wuchs der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz um weitere 92 Prozent auf 75,2 Milliarden US-Dollar, getragen vom Hochlauf der Blackwell-KI-Systeme. Verkaufte KI-Produkte samt Software (CUDA, NVIDIA AI Enterprise) sind damit der Kern des Geschäftsmodells; die Vorrang-Regel (verkauft vor bedroht/nutzt) greift eindeutig, auch wenn die Risikokapitel zugleich KI-bezogene Gegenwinde (Exportkontrollen, kundeneigene Chips, Regulierungsanfragen) nennen.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing to help solve the most challenging computational problems. NVIDIA is now a data center scale AI infrastructure company reshaping all industries."
NVIDIA hat das beschleunigte Rechnen begründet, um die anspruchsvollsten Rechenprobleme zu lösen. NVIDIA ist heute ein KI-Infrastruktur-Unternehmen im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab, das alle Branchen umformt.
„Revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $215.9 billion, up 65% from a year ago. Data Center revenue for fiscal year 2026 was up 68% from a year ago. The strong year-on-year growth was driven by the major platform shifts – accelerated computing and AI."
Der Umsatz im Geschäftsjahr 2026 betrug 215,9 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 65 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz stieg im Geschäftsjahr 2026 um 68 Prozent. Das starke Wachstum wurde von den großen Plattformwechseln getrieben — beschleunigtes Rechnen und KI.
„Revenue was $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year ago and up 20% sequentially. Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% from a year ago and up 21% sequentially, driven by the ramp of our Blackwell 300 products and demand for our InfiniBand, Spectrum-X Ethernet, and NVLink solutions."
Der Umsatz betrug 81,6 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 85 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr und von 20 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Der Rechenzentrums-Umsatz lag bei 75,2 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Plus von 92 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr und 21 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal — getrieben vom Hochlauf unserer Blackwell-300-Produkte und der Nachfrage nach unseren InfiniBand-, Spectrum-X-Ethernet- und NVLink-Lösungen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-20 · 10-Q 2025-11-19 · 10-Q 2025-08-27 · 10-Q 2025-05-28 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable Delivers, discloses lessFrom 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q4 NVIDIA beat every revenue outlook it had issued, nine quarters in a row, most recently 82 billion dollars against a guided 78. The margin target was met, Spectrum-X exceeded its own promise several times over and Blackwell Ultra arrived on schedule. Exactly one dated commitment was missed: the original Blackwell shipment timing, which management disclosed itself in the very next call and then overdelivered on in revenue. What remains is a question of reporting discipline: two metrics management introduced itself, the software run rate and the inference share, vanish from the calls without a closing figure.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Nine quarters, nine beats
From 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q4 NVIDIA beat every revenue outlook it gave. For 2025-Q1 the guide was 24 billion dollars and 26 was delivered; for 2026-Q3 it was 54 against 57, for 2026-Q4 65 against 68 and for 2027-Q1 78 against 82 billion. Gross margin landed where it was promised too: the mid-seventies target for the end of the fiscal year, repeated from 2025-Q4 onward, was met in 2026-Q4 at 75.2 percent. This hit rate is the most solid part of the file and we weight it accordingly.
The software metric vanishes without a final figure
In 2024-Q4 NVIDIA first named a one billion dollar annual run rate for software, services and support and put the list price of NVIDIA AI Enterprise at 4,500 dollars per GPU per year. In 2025-Q2 that became a statement that the business would approach a 2 billion dollar annual run rate by the end of the fiscal year; in 2025-Q3, with an interim figure of 1.5 billion, it became an exit above 2 billion. In the closing quarter 2025-Q4 the number is simply absent, with no final value and no explanation, and across the six following calls up to 2027-Q1 it never reappears. For scale: this is a small line, roughly 2 billion of run rate against 130.5 billion of fiscal 2025 group revenue. Whether the self-set target was met still cannot be answered from the transcripts.
Inference share: figure gone, question unanswered
For three calls in a row NVIDIA gave a hard number: roughly 40 percent of data center revenue came from inference (2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, and more than 40 percent in 2025-Q2). From 2025-Q4 onward that turned into the unquantified phrase that the vast majority of compute today is inference. When an analyst asked explicitly in 2026-Q3 where the percentage would go over the coming year, no number came back, only the remark that it is hard to know what the share will be at any given point in time. In fairness, the figure was never a reported segment number but always flagged as the company's own estimate. As a support for the inference story it has nonetheless been unverifiable since 2025-Q4.
Blackwell: late start, target held
In 2025-Q1 the message was that Blackwell was in full production, that production shipments would start the following quarter, ramp the quarter after, and that customers would have data centers standing in the fourth quarter. The start slipped: nothing shipped in 2025-Q2, and 13,000 samples went to customers in 2025-Q3. The cause was a mask change to improve yields, which NVIDIA raised itself in the very next call. The ramp began in 2025-Q4, one quarter later than promised, shipments roughly two. The end point of the commitment was met on time, however: in 2025-Q4 Azure, GCP, AWS and OCI had Blackwell systems standing. On the money side the picture reversed anyway: the several billion dollars of Blackwell revenue guided in 2025-Q2 for 2025-Q4 came in at 11 billion. Jensen Huang spoke in 2025-Q4 of a hiccup that probably cost a couple of months.
China: market closed by policy
In 2024-Q4 China sat in the mid single digit percentage of data center revenue, and management expected a similar range for the following quarter. After the H20 export ban NVIDIA reported in 2026-Q1 a 4.5 billion dollar write-down, 2.5 billion of revenue it could not ship and roughly 8 billion of lost revenue for the following quarter. In 2026-Q2 the CFO did name 2 to 5 billion dollars of H20 revenue for 2026-Q3, but said in the same breath that H20 was explicitly not included in the outlook and that the figure would only materialise if the political situation eased. The condition did not hold: about 50 million dollars were booked, and sizable purchase orders, the CFO said, never came through because of geopolitics and rising Chinese competition. From 2026-Q3 China is excluded from the outlook altogether, which keeps the reported numbers cleanly separated from that risk.
New tone, new segments
The tone turns visibly in 2026-Q3, where Jensen Huang opens his remarks unprompted with the observation that there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble and that he sees something very different. It is the first defensive speech in this series. Disclosure practice shifts alongside it: where 2025-Q3 answered a question about the rest of the year with the line that they guide one quarter at a time, multi-year figures appear from 2026-Q3, first 500 billion dollars of Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of 2026, then 1 trillion through the end of 2027 in 2027-Q1. In 2027-Q1 NVIDIA also rebuilds its reporting segments: gaming, professional visualisation and automotive disappear into a combined Edge Computing line, shortly after automotive grew only 6 percent in 2026-Q4 and supply constraints were flagged for gaming. Nine quarters of restated history were provided, but the individual segment figures are gone from the calls themselves.
Management promises
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2025-Q1 broken
Blackwell production shipments start next quarter, ramp the quarter after, customers have data centers standing in the fourth quarter.
Nothing shipped in 2025-Q2 and only samples in 2025-Q3; per the 2025-Q4 call the ramp started only there, one quarter later than promised. The cause was a mask change NVIDIA raised itself in the next call, and Huang conceded the slip in 2025-Q4. The last part of the commitment, customer data centers standing in the fourth quarter, was met on time.
-
2025-Q1 kept
Spectrum-X will become a multibillion dollar product line within a year.
In 2026-Q1 NVIDIA reported an annualised run rate above 8 billion dollars for Spectrum-X, above 10 billion in 2026-Q2. Clearly exceeded.
-
2025-Q2 open
Software, SaaS and support approach a 2 billion dollar annual run rate by the end of the fiscal year; narrowed to above 2 billion in 2025-Q3.
Reaffirmed in 2025-Q3 with an interim 1.5 billion, then never mentioned again. The metric is absent in the closing quarter 2025-Q4 and in all six following calls up to 2027-Q1. No proof can be drawn from the transcripts.
-
2025-Q4 kept
Blackwell Ultra arrives in the second half of the fiscal year and the annual product cadence is maintained.
Sampling of GB300 began in 2026-Q1, and in 2026-Q2 NVIDIA reported production shipments and tens of billions in Blackwell Ultra revenue. Schedule met.
-
2026-Q1 kept
Gross margin returns to the mid-seventies range late in the fiscal year.
After 61 percent in 2026-Q1 including the write-down, the adjusted margin rose via 72.7 percent in 2026-Q2 and 73.6 percent in 2026-Q3 to 75.2 percent in 2026-Q4. Target met.
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2026-Q3 open
A definitive agreement with OpenAI covering at least 10 gigawatts of data center capacity is being worked toward.
In 2026-Q4 the wording was that they believe they are close. In 2027-Q1 OpenAI is named only as a partner and no signing is confirmed. Still open after two quarters.
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2026-Q4 open
Vera Rubin enters production shipments in the second half of the year.
In 2027-Q1 the timing was narrowed to the third quarter and called on track. Proof is still outstanding because the period had not elapsed at the review date.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q4 through 2027-Q1.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 50.8% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 63
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2027 | 9.00 | 8.20 – 9.85 | 393,853 | 88.6% | 50 |
| 01/31/2028 | 12.89 | 9.65 – 16.00 | 561,509 | 43.3% | 50 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 2.01 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q1 | 0.89 | 81.20 | 39,331 | 77.90 | 56.20 | 16,629 | 15,552 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.76 | 27.60 | 44,062 | 69.20 | 42.60 | 27,414 | 26,187 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.08 | 61.20 | 46,743 | 55.60 | 56.50 | 15,365 | 13,470 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.30 | 67.20 | 57,006 | 62.50 | 56.00 | 23,751 | 22,115 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.76 | 96.60 | 68,127 | 73.20 | 63.10 | 36,188 | 34,904 |
| 2026: Q2 | 2.39 | 213.40 | 81,615 | 85.20 | 71.50 | 50,344 | 48,587 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 6,910 | 1,934 | 1,666 | 0.06 | 1,672 | 5,762 | 9,841 |
| 2018 | 9,714 | 3,210 | 3,047 | 0.12 | 3,502 | 7,471 | 11,241 |
| 2019 | 11,716 | 3,804 | 4,141 | 0.17 | 3,743 | 9,342 | 13,292 |
| 2020 | 10,918 | 2,846 | 2,796 | 0.11 | 4,761 | 12,204 | 17,315 |
| 2021 | 16,675 | 4,532 | 4,332 | 0.17 | 5,822 | 16,893 | 28,791 |
| 2022 | 26,914 | 10,041 | 9,752 | 0.38 | 9,108 | 26,612 | 44,187 |
| 2023 | 26,974 | 4,224 | 4,368 | 0.17 | 5,641 | 22,101 | 41,182 |
| 2024 | 60,922 | 32,972 | 29,760 | 1.19 | 28,090 | 42,978 | 65,728 |
| 2025 | 130,497 | 81,453 | 72,880 | 2.94 | 64,089 | 79,327 | 111,601 |
| 2026 | 215,938 | 130,387 | 120,067 | 4.90 | 102,718 | 157,293 | 206,803 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The de facto standard of AI infrastructure: 90 percent of revenue from the data center business, CUDA software as a developer moat, complete systems instead of single chips; half of data center revenue now comes from customers beyond the hyperscalers (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).
$215.9 billion in revenue (+65 percent) and $120.1 billion in net income in fiscal year 2026, $102.7 billion in operating cash flow, $62.6 billion in cash/securities against $8.5 billion in notes, Altman-Z about 16 — plus $40.4 billion in buybacks and a dividend raised to $0.25 per quarter in May 2026.
Three direct customers = 54 percent of quarterly revenue and 64 percent of receivables; at the same time $43.4 billion investment book, $27 billion in committed investments, $13 billion non-refundable Groq license, $30 billion in cloud purchases from its own customers, OpenAI agreement being finalized — and information requests from competition authorities in five jurisdictions (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).
China data center business practically zero ($4.5 billion H20 write-down, $60 million license revenue, Washington's 15 percent expectation, Beijing advising customers against); plus $119 billion in purchase commitments (+$24 billion in one quarter) and $25.8 billion in inventories, whose valuation is a critical audit matter of the auditor (10-K 2026; 10-Q as of April 26, 2026).
A P/E of about 29 and PEG below 1 are moderate for 65 percent growth (data as of July 8, 2026) — but a P/S of about 19.5 and P/B of about 24 price in sustained perfection, the latest quarterly profit included $15.9 billion in valuation gains on stakes, and insiders reported 16 sells versus 4 buys.
Nvidia is the rare case in which the most valuable company in the world is at the same time a value scanner hit: 65 percent growth, 56 percent net margin, a fortress balance sheet and a P/E of about 29 — the Magic Formula does find genuinely exceptional quality at a fair price here. Set against this are findings no scanner can price: more than half of revenue comes from three direct customers, the company increasingly takes stakes in its own buyers ($43.4 billion investment book, $27 billion in commitments, OpenAI agreement being finalized), the China business is politically cut to zero, and $119 billion in purchase commitments bet that demand will hold, of which Nvidia's own revenue is the most important proof. Not investment advice.
- Nvidia has an offset fiscal year (ending in late January): "fiscal year 2026" ended on January 25, 2026, "first quarter of 2027" on April 26, 2026 — the periods are dated in the text in each case.
- The net income of the first quarter of 2027 ($58.3 billion) included $15.9 billion in unrealized valuation gains on securities (among them the Intel stake); the operating result of $53.5 billion is the more reliable measure.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to July 8, 2026 (about $196 per share, about $4,945 billion market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
- The scanner membership was checked twice: data as of July 8, 2026 (seven value/quality scanners) and a live check on July 14, 2026 (Greenblatt confirmed; the rest of the scanner set drifts day to day).
- Nvidia does not name the three big customers in the mandatory filings; the "AI research and deployment company" with a significant indirect revenue contribution also remains unnamed there.
About the Company
NVIDIA Corporation ist ein Anbieter von KI-Infrastruktur im Rechenzentrumsmaßstab in den USA, Taiwan, China, Hongkong, Europa und international. Das Unternehmen ist in den Segmenten Compute & Networking sowie Graphics tätig.
| Employees | 42,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Santa Clara, CA |
| Address | 2788 San Tomas Expressway, 95051 Santa Clara, United States |
| Phone | 408 486 2000 |
| Website | nvidia.com |
| IPO Date | 22. Jan 1999 |
| ISIN | US67066G1040 |
| Stock Split | 10:1 on 06/10/2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jen-Hsun Huang | Co-Founder, CEO & Director | 1963 |
| Colette M. Kress | Executive VP & CFO | 1967 |
| Debora Shoquist | Executive Vice President of Operations | 1955 |
| Timothy S. Teter J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1967 |
| Ajay K. Puri | Executive Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations | 1955 |
| Chris A. Malachowsky | Co-Founder | – |
| Scott C. Gawel | Chief Accounting Officer | 1971 |
| Prof. William J. Dally Ph.D. | Chief Scientist & Senior VP of Research | 1961 |
| Toshiya Hari | Vice President of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | – |
| Mylene Mangalindan | Vice President of Corporate Communications | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.