Micron Technology Inc (MU)
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Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Quality, balance sheet and scarcity position are real — but an entry at a price-to-sales ratio of 27 and a price-to-book ratio of 12.7 after plus 761 percent in twelve months is a bet that "this time it's different": that take-or-pay contracts and AI demand permanently suspend the most brutal price cycle in the hardware world. Whoever believes that finds arguments here; whoever takes the roller coaster in the chart of fiscal years 2022 through 2026 seriously waits for evidence beyond a single boom year — say, the first quarters after prices normalize. The decision is yours.
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In the AI boom, memory-chip giant Micron earns more in one quarter than it previously did in its best full years: $41.5 billion in revenue, an 84.6 percent gross margin, $28.2 billion in net income (quarter ended May 28, 2026). Our value scanner for Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula lights up — high return on capital, plenty of profit for the money. We read the annual report (10-K) and the quarterly reports (10-Q): they also say that memory prices have fallen by up to 50 percent a year within the past five years, that a single customer accounts for 17 percent of revenue — and that China partly banned Micron long ago. Not investment advice — just an attempt to tell a ruler from a roller coaster.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MU since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 823.00 $ — 65% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIMicron verkauft Speicherchips, die laut eigenen SEC-Berichten direkt vom KI-Boom getragen werden und nachweislich Umsatzquelle sind: High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) wird im Geschäftsbericht ausdrücklich als ideal für KI-Anwendungen beschrieben, die Cloud Memory Business Unit (HBM für alle Rechenzentrums-Kunden) erlöste im dritten Quartal 2026 13,8 Milliarden US-Dollar, und das Management führt die massiven Preis- und Margensprünge des Geschäftsjahres 2026 wörtlich auf die KI-getriebene Nachfrage zurück, die das Branchenangebot übersteigt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„AI-driven memory and storage growth is outpacing industry supply. In the third quarter of 2026, we continued to benefit from substantial improvements in pricing and margins, reflecting strong demand growth, driven in large part by the continued advancement of AI."
Das KI-getriebene Wachstum bei Speicher und Datenspeicherung übersteigt das Angebot der Branche. Im dritten Quartal 2026 profitierten wir weiterhin von erheblichen Verbesserungen bei Preisen und Margen, die ein starkes Nachfragewachstum widerspiegeln — zu einem großen Teil getrieben vom anhaltenden Fortschritt der KI.
„High-Bandwidth Memory (“HBM”): A 3D stacked DRAM architecture that utilizes through-silicon via (“TSV”) connections for more efficient communication giving it the ability to achieve a higher bandwidth while consuming less power compared to other memory types. This makes it ideal for applications that require high data throughput and energy efficiency, such as AI applications and high-performance computing."
High-Bandwidth Memory („HBM“): eine 3D-gestapelte DRAM-Architektur, die Through-Silicon-Via-Verbindungen („TSV“) für effizientere Kommunikation nutzt und dadurch eine höhere Bandbreite bei geringerem Stromverbrauch als andere Speichertypen erreicht. Das macht sie ideal für Anwendungen, die hohen Datendurchsatz und Energieeffizienz erfordern — etwa KI-Anwendungen und Hochleistungsrechnen.
„AI-driven demand is accelerating and is outpacing industry supply. In 2025, we benefited from substantial improvements in DRAM pricing, volumes and margins as compared to 2024, reflecting strong demand growth, driven in part by the continued advancement of AI. During 2025, we shifted a portion of our DRAM supply to the data center and hyperscale cloud markets to meet the strong demand fueled by AI, with emphasis on HBM products, resulting in a revenue mix weighted more prominently toward segments experiencing higher growth."
Die KI-getriebene Nachfrage beschleunigt sich und übersteigt das Angebot der Branche. 2025 profitierten wir von erheblichen Verbesserungen bei DRAM-Preisen, -Volumina und -Margen gegenüber 2024, die ein starkes Nachfragewachstum widerspiegeln — teilweise getrieben vom anhaltenden Fortschritt der KI. Im Laufe des Jahres 2025 verlagerten wir einen Teil unseres DRAM-Angebots in die Märkte für Rechenzentren und Hyperscale-Cloud, um die starke, von KI befeuerte Nachfrage zu bedienen — mit Schwerpunkt auf HBM-Produkten.
„Cloud Memory Business Unit (“CMBU”): Focused on memory solutions for large hyperscale cloud customers, and HBM for all data center customers."
Cloud Memory Business Unit („CMBU“): fokussiert auf Speicherlösungen für große Hyperscale-Cloud-Kunden sowie HBM für alle Rechenzentrums-Kunden.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-06-25 · 10-Q 2026-03-19 · 10-Q 2025-12-18 · 10-Q 2025-06-26 · 10-K 2025-10-03 · 10-K 2024-10-04
Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Positive delivers reliablyWe reviewed ten Micron earnings call transcripts covering fiscal quarters 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q3 in chronological order. Management met or exceeded its own guidance in all ten quarters and delivered its multiyear HBM commitments from spring 2024 on schedule. Weaknesses appear only at the margins: quietly lowered NAND demand forecasts, a PC refresh cycle that slipped by several quarters, and deliberately sparse HBM detail. From fiscal 2026 onward, late-cycle signals such as superlative rhetoric and serial capex increases accumulate.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q3 · As of August 2, 2026
Guidance met or beaten in ten of ten quarters
In every one of the ten reviewed calls, the completed quarter came in at the high end of or above the previously issued guidance range. Example 2024-Q3: guidance called for 6.6 billion dollars of revenue and 26.5 percent gross margin, delivered were 6.8 billion dollars and about 28 percent. In fiscal 2026 the gaps became extreme: in 2026-Q3, an outlook of 33.5 billion dollars was answered with actuals of 41.5 billion, and gross margin reached 84.9 percent versus a guided 81 percent. Only in 2025-Q2 were revenue and margin merely within the range, while EPS still beat it. Such a flawless ten-quarter track record is rare.
2024 HBM commitments delivered on schedule
In 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3, management announced several hundred million dollars of HBM revenue for fiscal 2024, multiple billions for 2025, and an HBM market share matching its DRAM share sometime in 2025. All three marks were hit: 2024-Q4 confirmed the annual target, 2025-Q2 reported over 1 billion dollars of HBM revenue in a single quarter, and 2025-Q4 confirmed share parity in calendar Q3 2025 — earlier rather than later versus the most recent framing. The 2025-Q4 commitment to sell out the remaining calendar 2026 HBM supply within months was completed by 2026-Q1. The HBM4 ramp arrived in 2026 as announced in 2025-Q3, with over 1 billion dollars of HBM4 revenue already in 2026-Q3.
NAND forecasts quietly lowered repeatedly
The medium-term NAND demand forecast drifted from low-20s percent (2024-Q2) to high teens (2024-Q3) to mid-teens (2025-Q2). When an analyst challenged the first cut in 2024-Q3, management said there was not much of a difference, citing a rebased comparison year — the further reduction came without comment. Calendar 2024 was also missed: instead of the mid-teens cited in 2024-Q4, actual NAND demand grew only about 10 percent, as conceded in 2025-Q2. The NAND price increases promised in 2024-Q2 for all of calendar 2024 likewise reversed in late 2024, followed by output cuts and new underutilization costs (2025-Q1, 2025-Q2). On DRAM, by contrast, management was consistently too cautious and had to revise upward repeatedly.
PC cycle slipped, Windows 12 argument vanished
In 2024-Q3 and 2024-Q4, management justified the expected PC upturn with a replacement cycle starting in late 2024, the Windows 10 end of support, and the launch of Windows 12. In 2025-Q1 it conceded a pushout of that cycle; Windows 12 never appeared again, and from 2025-Q3 the narrative switched to a Windows 11 upgrade cycle. The 2025 PC unit forecast then swung from mid-single (2025-Q2) to low-single (2025-Q3) back to mid- (2025-Q4) and high-single-digit (2026-Q1). The cycle did arrive — just later and with different reasoning than originally announced. To its credit, the delay itself was communicated openly rather than obscured.
HBM numbers only when they shine
Milestones were actively marketed: over 100 million dollars in 2024-Q3, over 1 billion in 2025-Q2, nearly 2 billion in 2025-Q4, over 1 billion of HBM4 revenue in 2026-Q3. Yet management repeatedly declined to provide regular quarterly figures or an ongoing share number — in response to direct analyst questions in 2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Since reaching its share target in calendar Q3 2025, the HBM share is explicitly no longer disclosed and is described only as mix management. This is openly stated policy rather than covert evasion — but it reduces investors' ability to measure precisely the most important growth pillar.
Late-cycle signals from fiscal 2026 onward
The fiscal 2026 capex envelope rose across four consecutive calls from about 18 billion dollars (2025-Q4) to 20 billion (2026-Q1), above 25 billion (2026-Q2), and about 27 billion (2026-Q3) — each time accompanied by pledges of discipline. In parallel, the language shifted to superlatives such as stellar records and unprecedented, and at the margin peak (guided 86 percent gross margin for 2026-Q4) new far-horizon narratives appeared, such as robotics as a 20-year growth vector (2026-Q2, 2026-Q3). At the same time, the new multiyear contracts (SCAs) per 2026-Q3 lock in floor prices with margins said to exceed the peaks of any prior cycle. We see no contradiction here, but a classic cycle-peak pattern that raises the drop height for future disappointments.
Management promises
-
2024-Q2 kept
Several hundred million dollars of HBM revenue in fiscal 2024; HBM margin-accretive from fiscal Q3 onward.
2024-Q3 reported over 100 million dollars of HBM revenue at accretive margins; 2024-Q4 confirmed the annual target was met.
-
2024-Q2 kept
HBM market share matching the DRAM share sometime in calendar 2025.
Per 2025-Q4, reached in calendar Q3 2025 — within the promised window and earlier than the interim refinement to a Q4 run rate required.
-
2024-Q3 kept
Multiple billions of dollars of HBM revenue in fiscal 2025.
2025-Q2 delivered over 1 billion dollars in a single quarter, 2025-Q4 about 2 billion — the target was clearly exceeded.
-
2024-Q2 kept
Record revenue and significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025.
Fiscal 2025 delivered 37.4 billion dollars of revenue (up 49 percent) and a 41 percent gross margin (up 17 points).
-
2024-Q4 kept
Days of inventory approaching the roughly 120-day target by the end of fiscal 2025.
Fiscal 2025 ended at 124 days with DRAM below target — as announced, despite an interim rise in 2025-Q2.
-
2025-Q4 kept
Sell-out of the remaining calendar 2026 HBM supply in the coming months.
2026-Q1 reported completed price and volume agreements for the entire calendar 2026 HBM supply.
-
2025-Q2 kept
HBM4 volume production in calendar 2026.
2026-Q2 confirmed HBM4 volume shipments underway; 2026-Q3 already reported over 1 billion dollars of HBM4 revenue.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q3.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 85.0% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 37
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31/2026 | 73.43 | 67.39 – 80.16 | 129,758 | 785.8% | 36 |
| 08/31/2027 | 155.56 | 106.89 – 221.27 | 240,963 | 111.8% | 37 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 31.17 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.67 | – | 8,709 | 84.30 | 21.50 | 3,244 | 6,450 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.41 | 98.00 | 8,053 | 38.30 | 19.70 | 3,942 | 736 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.68 | 466.80 | 9,301 | 36.60 | 20.30 | 4,609 | 7,547 |
| 2025: Q3 | 2.85 | 260.90 | 11,315 | 46.00 | 28.30 | 5,730 | 11,388 |
| 2025: Q4 | 4.60 | 176.30 | 13,643 | 56.70 | 38.40 | 8,411 | 13,800 |
| 2026: Q1 | 12.10 | 758.10 | 23,860 | 196.30 | 57.80 | 11,903 | 6,514 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12,399 | 168 | -276 | -0.27 | 3,168 | 12,080 | 27,540 |
| 2017 | 20,322 | 5,868 | 5,089 | 4.41 | 8,153 | 18,621 | 35,336 |
| 2018 | 30,391 | 14,994 | 14,135 | 11.50 | 17,400 | 32,294 | 43,376 |
| 2019 | 23,406 | 7,376 | 6,313 | 5.52 | 13,189 | 35,881 | 48,887 |
| 2020 | 21,435 | 3,003 | 2,687 | 2.38 | 8,306 | 38,996 | 53,678 |
| 2021 | 27,705 | 6,283 | 5,861 | 5.14 | 12,468 | 43,933 | 58,849 |
| 2022 | 30,758 | 9,702 | 8,687 | 7.74 | 15,181 | 49,907 | 66,283 |
| 2023 | 15,540 | -5,745 | -5,833 | -5.34 | 1,559 | 44,120 | 64,254 |
| 2024 | 25,111 | 1,304 | 778 | 0.70 | 8,507 | 45,131 | 69,416 |
| 2025 | 37,378 | 9,870 | 8,539 | 7.59 | 17,525 | 54,165 | 82,798 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
One of only three manufacturers worldwide able to build HBM high-performance memory for AI accelerators at scale — and the only one headquartered in the United States. Per the quarterly report, AI demand exceeds industry supply; Micron is actively allocating the scarce goods (10-Q as of May 28, 2026).
$41.5 billion in revenue and $28.2 billion in net income in the quarter ended May 28, 2026 (an 84.6 percent gross margin), $45.7 billion in operating cash flow in nine months; $30.1 billion in cash/securities against $5.7 billion of debt, equity of $100.7 billion, an Altman Z around 11.7.
The boom is almost entirely a price boom (DRAM prices +260 percent, volume +20 percent year over year in the third quarter of FY 2026). The company's own five-year history in the 10-K cites price swings down to minus a good 50 percent a year, at times below manufacturing cost; in FY 2023 the gross margin was negative.
A market value of about $1,576 billion, a price-to-sales ratio around 27, price-to-book around 12.7, plus 761 percent in twelve months (data as of July 8, 2026): the price presumes that the best margins in industry history become the permanent state. An optically moderate P/E is, with cyclicals at the peak, the Magic Formula's classic trap.
Multi-year take-or-pay contracts with price floors and $22 billion in committed customer funds are a genuine structural break — but one customer stood for 17 percent of FY 2025 revenue, the top ten for half, trade receivables swelled to $26.9 billion in nine months, and China remains a double risk (the CAC ban, state-financed rivals CXMT/YMTC complete with patent suits).
Micron is the opposite of a warning-scanner case: a world-class cyclical in record form, with a fortress balance sheet, a genuine scarcity position in the AI boom and, for the first time, contractually secured volumes. But the stock is valued at about $1.58 trillion — 27 times revenue and 12.7 times book value — as if the best quarter in industry history were the new normal. Exactly that permanence is unproven: the boom sits almost entirely in prices whose own five-year history includes crashes by half. The value scanner did its math correctly — whether it did the math at the peak, only the cycle knows. Not investment advice.
- Micron reports in an offset fiscal year (ending late August/early September); "FY 2026" denotes the period from August 29, 2025 through September 3, 2026, and the nine-month figures end on May 28, 2026. Every period in the text is explicitly dated.
- The $47.3 billion of FY 2026 net income is a nine-month figure, not a full-year figure; the comparison with the prior full years in the roller-coaster chart is labeled accordingly.
- Price and valuation figures are dated July 8, 2026 (about $1,214 per share, about $1,576 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
- Analyst estimates (about $73 and $149 in earnings per share for the current and the next fiscal year) are consensus forecasts of 37 professionals, not facts — with cyclicals, estimates have historically been revised hardest at turning points.
About the Company
Micron Technology, Inc. entwickelt, fertigt und vertreibt Speicher- und Storage-Produkte in den USA, Taiwan, Japan, Festlandchina, Hongkong, Europa und international.
| Employees | 53,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Boise, ID |
| Address | 8000 South Federal Way, 83716-9632 Boise, United States |
| Phone | 208 368 4000 |
| Website | micron.com |
| IPO Date | 1. Jun 1984 |
| ISIN | US5951121038 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 05/02/2000 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Sanjay Mehrotra | CEO, President & Chairman | 1959 |
| Mark J. Murphy | Executive VP & CFO | 1968 |
| Manish H. Bhatia | Executive Vice President of Global Operations | 1972 |
| Scott J. DeBoer Ph.D. | Executive VP and Chief Technology & Products Officer | 1966 |
| Sumit Sadana | Executive VP & Chief Business Officer | 1969 |
| Scott R. Allen | Corporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1968 |
| Anand Bahl | Corp. VP & Chief Information Officer | – |
| Satya Kumar | Corporate VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | – |
| Michael Charles Ray Ph.D. | Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Michael D. Cordano | Executive VP of Worldwide Sales | 1964 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 1,002 | 965.85 | 967,782 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 316 | 960.00 | 303,360 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 405 | 956.68 | 387,455 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 1,523 | 956.18 | 1,456,262 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 725 | 954.19 | 691,788 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 108 | 950.77 | 102,683 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 1,207 | 948.24 | 1,144,526 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 797 | 946.78 | 754,584 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 955 | 945.87 | 903,306 |
| 24. Jul 2026 | Mehrotra Sanjay | President and CEO | Sell | 626 | 944.99 | 591,564 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.