Mercury General Corporation
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today is betting that Southern California Edison pays the subrogation, that the next fire season stays mild and that Sacramento allows adequate prices — and gets a profitable insurer at a trailing P/E around 10 in return, cushioned by $2.42 billion in equity and $6.58 billion in investments. Whoever waits may pass up a cheap entry but can check every quarterly report (10-Q) for whether the $538 million subrogation estimate turns into cash and how the combined ratio looks under the new rate plan (from July 2026). The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Mercury General is a rock-solidly financed, family-controlled auto and property insurer that passed a real stress test in 2025: $2.2 billion of wildfire gross losses became roughly $380 million net thanks to reinsurance and subrogation, and the year ended with a record net income of $541.1 million and a combined ratio below 100 percent. But the record character hangs on a $538 million subrogation estimate against Southern California Edison, the reinsurance cover was spent for 2025, and the whole bet sits in a single fire-prone state. At a trailing P/E around 10 and a return on equity near 25 percent, the market is paying quality at a reasonable price — including those four question marks. Not investment advice.
Balance sheet & investments
$6.58 billion in investments (82.5% fixed maturity), $1.32 billion in cash, $2.42 billion in equity (up 24 percent year over year, book value about $43.60 per share), debt of only 19.2 percent of total capital and $1,087 million in operating cash flow (12/31/2025) — a capital cushion that carried the largest fire loss in company history with ease.
Underwriting turnaround
The combined ratio turned from 109.5 percent (2022, record loss) through 105.8 percent (2023) to 96.3–96.5 percent (2024/2025); the pure loss ratio ex-catastrophes was 64.0 percent in 2025. Approved rate increases (auto +22.5 percent, homeowners repeatedly) made the core business clearly profitable again (10-K FY 2025).
Wildfire handling & reinsurance
$2.2 billion of gross losses became roughly $380 million net thanks to reinsurance and subrogation — risk management that held. But the reinsurance airbag (roughly $1.29 billion) was fully deployed in 2025 and reloaded for about $101 million of reinstatement premium; a second major fire soon after would meet higher retentions (10-K FY 2025, Item 7 / Note 12).
California concentration & regulation
Roughly 86 percent of auto premiums in a single, especially catastrophe- and regulation-prone state; results hang on California DOI approvals. The new "Sustainable Insurance Strategy" allows adequate prices only in exchange for the requirement to hold at least 85 percent of market share in wildfire zones (from July 2026) — pricing freedom traded for more fire risk.
Valuation & ownership structure
A trailing P/E around 10, price-to-book about 2.2 and a return on equity near 25 percent sound cheap — but the 2025 record profit includes $131 million of realized investment gains and a $538 million subrogation that is still pending. On top, the Joseph family controls more than 50 percent, so minority shareholders can be outvoted (data as of July 17, 2026; 10-K FY 2025, Item 1A).
Worth Noting
MCY reached our research list via the Joshua growth scanner (rank 18 of 74, data as of July 17, 2026); the confluence of trend hits (Joshua growth scanner, Stan Weinstein stage 2) and value/quality hits (P/E ranking, Buffett owner-earnings, QARP) is rare for a stock up about 66 percent over twelve months.
Insurer metrics follow their own logic: what matters is the combined ratio (below 100 percent = an underwriting profit), book value and the investment result, not the classic P/E alone. The reported 2025 record profit includes one-off effects ($531 million of catastrophe losses, $586 million of subrogation, $131 million of realized gains).
Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (price about $97, market value roughly $5.4 billion); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Mercury's fiscal year ends December 31.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MCY since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 76.20 $ to 111.10 $ · Last price: 100.60 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury General Corporation MCY | 5.6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 26.8 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 31.2 |
| Chubb Ltd CB | 132.6 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 20.6 | 6.5 | 27.1 |
| Progressive Corp PGR | 126.0 | 11.7 | 21.9 | 18.5 | 16.4 | 16.3 | -5.5 |
| The Travelers Companies Inc TRV | 79.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 18.7 | 5.2 | 40.1 |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | 64.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 36.8 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 30.3 |
| W. R. Berkley Corp WRB | 26.1 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 43.8 | 17.1 | 7.8 | -1.5 |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | 25.8 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 13.9 |
| Markel Corporation MKL | 21.9 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 51.9 | -9.7 | -1.0 | -7.4 |
| Loews Corp L | 21.8 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 36.3 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 12.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 26.1 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 34.7 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 13.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,228 | 71 | 73 | 1.32 | 287 | 1,752 | 4,789 |
| 2017 | 3,416 | 167 | 145 | 2.62 | 341 | 1,761 | 5,101 |
| 2018 | 3,380 | -31 | -6 | -0.10 | 383 | 1,618 | 5,434 |
| 2019 | 3,973 | 378 | 320 | 5.78 | 520 | 1,800 | 5,889 |
| 2020 | 3,785 | 459 | 375 | 6.77 | 606 | 2,033 | 6,328 |
| 2021 | 3,993 | 299 | 248 | 4.48 | 502 | 2,140 | 6,772 |
| 2022 | 3,643 | -671 | -513 | -9.26 | 353 | 1,522 | 6,514 |
| 2023 | 4,630 | 99 | 96 | 1.74 | 453 | 1,548 | 7,103 |
| 2024 | 5,476 | 575 | 468 | 8.45 | 1,037 | 1,947 | 8,311 |
| 2025 | 5,992 | 664 | 541 | 9.77 | 1,087 | 2,417 | 9,561 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.82 | -47.20 | 1,366 | -0.60 | 7.40 | 248 | 236 |
| 2025: Q1 | -1.96 | -247.40 | 1,394 | 9.40 | -7.80 | -69 | -82 |
| 2025: Q2 | 3.01 | 166.00 | 1,478 | 13.20 | 11.30 | 372 | 357 |
| 2025: Q3 | 5.06 | 21.40 | 1,585 | 3.60 | 17.70 | 496 | 480 |
| 2025: Q4 | 3.66 | 100.40 | 1,536 | 12.40 | 13.20 | 288 | 274 |
| 2026: Q1 | 3.44 | – | 1,540 | 10.50 | 12.40 | 326 | 309 |
| 2026: Q2 | 4.76 | 58.10 | 1,682 | 13.80 | 15.70 | 218 | 218 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 22 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
- Buffett: Owner Earnings Yield
- Institutional Accumulation
- Levermann
- Pros 80%
- QARP — Quality at a Fair Price
Breakout & Setup
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Near 52-Week High
- Power Trend
- Stan Weinstein: Checklist
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 13.50 | 13.50 – 13.50 | 6,260 | 70.9% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 12.25 | 12.25 – 12.25 | 6,677 | -9.3% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -14.1% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $1.26B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $5.57B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $275.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 26.1% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 12.7% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen die Geschäftsberichte (10-K) für die Geschäftsjahre 2025 (eingereicht 17.02.2026) und 2024 (11.02.2025) sowie die Quartalsberichte (10-Q) zum 31.03.2026 und 30.09.2025: In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Mercury General findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. „Artificial intelligence“ taucht ausschließlich in zwei Kontexten auf — erstens als generische Cybersecurity-Floskel im Risikoteil des 10-K 2025 („the use of artificial intelligence, including by computer hackers“), also als eine von vielen Angriffstechniken gegen die IT-Systeme, und zweitens in der Biografie des Chief Technology Officer, der „deep expertise in technology, data, and artificial intelligence“ mitbringt. Keine der Fundstellen belegt eine KI-Umsatzquelle (kein „verkauft“), einen dokumentierten operativen KI-Einsatz im Geschäftsmodell (kein „nutzt“) oder ein konkretes, aufs eigene Modell bezogenes KI-Geschäftsrisiko (kein „bedroht“ — die Cybersecurity-Nennung bleibt Boilerplate). Ein tech-naher Nebenaspekt (Technologie-Tochter Mercury Shanghai, ein 2023 eingestellter Chief Data & Analytics Officer) deutet auf Daten-/Analytics-Kompetenz hin, wird in den Filings aber nicht als KI-Einsatz beschrieben. Das erwähnte Risiko rund um „driverless cars and usage-based insurance“ betrifft die Autonomie/Telematik des Kfz-Geschäfts, nicht KI im Sinne des Kriterienkatalogs. Nach der Vorrang-Regel (verkauft > bedroht > nutzt > neutral) bleibt es damit belegbar bei „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„These risks include the risk of a cyber incident, which has generally increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks by threat actors have increased globally, especially given the use of more advanced hacking tools and techniques and the use of artificial intelligence, including by computer hackers, state-sponsored actors, information service interruptions and cyber terrorists, opportunistic hackers and hacktivists."
Zu diesen Risiken gehört die Gefahr eines Cyber-Vorfalls, die weltweit generell zugenommen hat, da Zahl, Intensität und Raffinesse der Angriffsversuche gestiegen sind — insbesondere angesichts fortschrittlicherer Hacking-Werkzeuge und -Techniken sowie des Einsatzes künstlicher Intelligenz, auch durch Computer-Hacker, staatlich gesteuerte Akteure und Cyber-Terroristen.
10-K · 2026-02-17 · View SEC filing
„Mr. Pang has over 20 years' experience in the technology industry. He has served in Chief Technology Officer and Chief Data Officer roles in several public companies and has deep expertise in technology, data, and artificial intelligence."
Herr Pang verfügt über mehr als 20 Jahre Erfahrung in der Technologiebranche. Er war bei mehreren börsennotierten Unternehmen als Chief Technology Officer und Chief Data Officer tätig und besitzt tiefgehende Expertise in Technologie, Daten und künstlicher Intelligenz.
10-K · 2026-02-17 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-17 · 10-K 2025-02-11 · 10-Q 2026-05-05 · 10-Q 2025-11-04
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 18.0%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 5.4%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 0.0%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 26.6%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 33.9%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.5%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1,066 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 1,472 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 20.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 52.0%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
8/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 7.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 5.6%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 28.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 12.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -1.6x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 8
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 26.9%
- ROCE > 15% 20.8%
- Expected return > 10% 32.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Mercury General Corporation befasst sich gemeinsam mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften mit dem Abschluss von Kfz-Versicherungen für Privatpersonen in den USA. Sie zeichnet außerdem Hausrat-, Gewerbe-Kfz-, Gewerbeimmobilien-, Maschinenschutz- und Umbrella-Versicherungsprodukte.
- Employees
- 4,380
- Headquarters
- Los Angeles, CA
- Address
- 4484 Wilshire Boulevard, 90010 Los Angeles, United States
- Phone
- 323 937 1060
- Website
- mercuryinsurance.com
- IPO Date
- 03/26/1990
- ISIN
- US5894001008
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 10/10/1997
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 09/14/1992
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Tirador | CEO & Chairman of the Board | 1965 |
| Victor George Joseph | President, COO & Director | 1987 |
| Theodore Robert Stalick CPA | Senior VP & CFO | 1963 |
| Wilson Pang B.E. | VP & CTO | 1977 |
| Christopher Wadewitz Graves | VP & Chief Investment Officer | 1966 |
| Erik Dahl Thompson | VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 1969 |
| Nick Colby | VP & Chief Sales Officer | 1985 |
| Jenny D. Chan | VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1974 |
| Brandt N. Minnich | VP & Chief Sales Development Officer | 1967 |
| Randall R. Petro | VP & Chief Claims Officer | 1964 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.