Kestrel Group Ltd
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Red here is not about the price but about substance. Three documented findings would each be enough on their own. First, the company does not earn its interest: in the first half of 2026, $8.1 million of interest and amortization expense met a pre-tax loss of $15.6 million, with a $41.0 million operating cash outflow and only $23.3 million of unrestricted funds. Second, the entire growth business hangs on a single counterparty: AmTrust supplies the licences and rating without which there is no product, and one client program produced 85.8 percent of fee revenue in the second quarter of 2026. Third, the receivable from one reinsurer ($459.8 million at December 31, 2025) is a multiple of shareholders' equity of $114.0 million, and up to $71.7 million of it is disputed. That the bond market values the company's own debt at about 46 cents on the dollar is the outside confirmation. None of this is a judgement on price: the discount to book value and the unrecognised tax asset of $17.88 per share are real, and if the fee machine keeps growing at this rate something could come of it. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Kestrel Group is the bottom-line trap in its purest form: $68.3 million of the $46.7 million reported for 2025 was an accounting gain from the merger — strip it out and a $21.6 million loss remains, followed by a further $15.5 million in the first half of 2026. Underneath sits a real, fast-growing fee business that already produced $203.8 million of premium in the first half of 2026 — but draws 85.8 percent of its fees from one client and operates on a major shareholder's licences. Against that stand $262.4 million of notes versus $23.3 million of unrestricted funds, a $459.8 million receivable from a single reinsurer, and an unrecognised tax asset of $17.88 per share that only sustained profits would reveal. Not investment advice.
Fee business
The fronting business is growing quickly and consumes little capital: premium produced rose from $103.8 million in 2024 to $188.3 million in 2025 and $203.8 million in the first half of 2026 alone, with fee revenue moving from $3.6 million to $6.1 million and then $6.9 million in the half year. Segment fee income swung from $12,000 in the first half of 2025 to $4.0 million in the first half of 2026.
Quality of earnings
The $46.7 million of 2025 net income consists of a $68.3 million one-off accounting gain; the Form 10-K puts the result excluding it at a loss of $21.6 million. In the first half of 2026, total revenues of $16.9 million met general and administrative expenses of $22.7 million, leaving a $15.5 million loss.
Dependencies
A single client program produced 85.8 percent of fee revenue in the second quarter of 2026, against 33.5 percent a year earlier. The licences and A- rating being marketed belong to AmTrust, which is also a shareholder, nominates three of the seven board seats and shares in the fee. Kestrel itself has no financial strength rating.
Balance sheet and liquidity
At June 30, 2026, $262.4 million of notes (debt to total capital resources of 69.7 percent) faced just $23.3 million of unrestricted funds, with interest expense of $11.3 million in 2025. A $459.8 million receivable from a single reinsurer at December 31, 2025 stands against $114.0 million of equity, up to $71.7 million of it disputed. $151.7 million of investments have no observable market prices.
Hidden value
Loss carryforwards of $471.6 million produce a deferred tax asset of $139.9 million, or $17.88 per share, at June 30, 2026 — fully reserved and therefore carried at zero. Add the discount on the company's own notes ($120.8 million versus $262.4 million). Both only become value once sustained profits appear, and that remains unproven.
Tradability
Free float stood at roughly 1.6 million of 7,824,030 shares outstanding on August 21, 2026; insiders held about 48.9 percent according to fundamental data, with subsidiary Maiden Reinsurance holding a further 22.2 percent at June 30, 2026 — accounted for as treasury stock yet entitled to vote. The twelve-month range ran from $7.51 to $29.13.
Worth Noting
Kestrel Group reached our research list through our in-house Reddit hype scanner, flagged on August 23, 2026. A cross-check of the public mention list (ApeWisdom) the same day no longer contained the ticker — the origin is documented, but not evidence of a sustained trend.
Easily confused: Kestrel Group Ltd was named Ranger Bermuda Topco Ltd before the merger and is the successor to Maiden Holdings, Ltd. (formerly NASDAQ: MHLD). Some market data providers still carry Maiden-era reference data for KG, including a listing year before 2025; what matters is that trading under KG began on May 28, 2025. The two listed bonds continue to trade under the symbols MHLA and MHNC.
As-of dates: company figures come from the Form 10-K for 2025 (filed March 13, 2026) and the Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026 (filed August 7, 2026); ownership and compensation data from the DEF 14A proxy statement filed April 24, 2026 and the Forms 8-K filed March 16, 2026 and May 14, 2026. Price, market value and float data come from fundamental data as of August 21, 2026.
On the recency check: the most recent filing at the time of research was the quarterly report for the period ended June 30, 2026. The Form 8-K filed the same day (Item 2.02) refers to an earnings press release as Exhibit 99.1; that exhibit is not part of the EDGAR submission itself, so every half-year figure in this analysis rests on the quarterly report. Kestrel issued no guidance for 2026 in the filings reviewed.
The bondholder litigation brought by WUSO Holding Corporation and 683 Capital Partners, which seeks to accelerate the $152.4 million note, is not closed: the complaint was dismissed on June 17, 2025 and the appellants filed their brief on time on April 8, 2026; Kestrel has said it will file in opposition.
The sale of the Swedish subsidiaries Maiden Life and Maiden General has failed: the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority declined the original acquisition in June 2025 and rejected the amended agreement covering Maiden General alone on May 20, 2026. Neither entity is classified as held for sale any longer; the company decided on April 7, 2026 to place Maiden Life into managed run-off and expects to do the same with Maiden General (Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026).
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at KG since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 5.90 $ to 29.10 $ · Last price: 6.20 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Insurance - Reinsurance
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kestrel Group Ltd KG | 0.0 | – | 0.9 | 46.3 | -97.1 | 785.1 | -78.0 |
| Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated RGA | 15.9 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 34.5 |
| Everest Group Ltd EG | 14.9 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 15.3 | 20.2 | 1.4 | 16.7 |
| Renaissancere Holdings Ltd RNR | 14.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 45.4 | 26.8 | 9.5 | 37.2 |
| Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. HG | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 38.6 | 29.1 | 15.3 | 59.7 |
| Siriuspoint Ltd SPNT | 2.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 23.9 | 18.0 | 22.6 | 36.0 |
| Greenlight Capital Re Ltd GLRE | 0.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 12.4 | – | 7.5 | 19.0 |
| Median of companies shown | 3.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 23.9 | 19.1 | 9.5 | 34.5 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1,989 | 612 | 289 | – | 466 | 2,289 | 3,330 |
| 2007 | 2,137 | 667 | 183 | – | 673 | 2,511 | 3,427 |
| 2008 | 1,565 | 435 | – | – | 491 | 2,177 | 4,258 |
| 2009 | 1,777 | 342 | 92 | – | 431 | 2,369 | 3,329 |
| 2020 | 187 | 67 | 42 | 9.90 | -542 | 528 | 2,948 |
| 2021 | 99 | 31 | 26 | 5.95 | -394 | 384 | 2,323 |
| 2022 | 58 | -49 | -60 | -13.86 | -196 | 285 | 1,847 |
| 2023 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -0.42 | -60 | 249 | 955 |
| 2024 | 4 | 0 | -1 | -0.13 | -67 | 5 | 6 |
| 2025 | 34 | 50 | 47 | 8.15 | -96 | 128 | 549 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q3 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 1 | -96.50 | -57.00 | -4 | -4 |
| 2024: Q4 | -1.59 | -657.10 | 1 | -95.20 | 5.10 | -48 | -48 |
| 2025: Q1 | -1.80 | -18,100.00 | 14 | -51.40 | -61.50 | -21 | -21 |
| 2025: Q2 | – | – | 1 | -13.50 | 12,807.10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025: Q3 | -1.95 | – | 20 | 2,599.30 | -24.90 | -3 | -3 |
| 2025: Q4 | – | – | 10 | 736.70 | -173.90 | -68 | -68 |
| 2026: Q1 | -1.34 | 25.60 | 10 | -27.40 | -72.90 | -15 | -15 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.86 | – | 7 | 1,130.20 | -120.30 | -38 | -38 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 23.08.2026 gegen sechs SEC-Filings von Kestrel Group Ltd (CIK 0002055116): Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 sowie die Quartalsberichte (10-Q) zum 30.06.2026, 31.03.2026, 30.09.2025 und 30.06.2025, dazu die Aktuellen Berichte (8-K) vom 08.06.2026 und 11.08.2025. Kestrel verdient sein Geld mit Fronting-Gebühren — es vermittelt Programm-Managern und Assekuradeuren (MGAs) den Zugang zu vier Versicherungsgesellschaften von AmTrust und kassiert dafür bis zu rund 5 Prozent der Bruttoprämie — und mit der Abwicklung eines alten Rückversicherungsbestands. Keine KI-Umsatzquelle, kein belegter operativer KI-Einsatz, kein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko fürs eigene Modell. In den vier ausgewerteten Quartalsberichten kommen „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ und „generative AI“ kein einziges Mal vor; die einzigen Erwähnungen stehen in einem allgemein gehaltenen Risikofaktor des 10-K 2025 („Artificial intelligence could increase competitive, operational, legal and regulatory risks to our businesses in ways that we cannot predict“ — „Künstliche Intelligenz könnte die Wettbewerbs-, Betriebs-, Rechts- und Regulierungsrisiken unserer Geschäfte auf eine Weise erhöhen, die wir nicht vorhersagen können“). Dort bleibt es bei einer Absichtserklärung ohne Umsetzung: „We intend to avail ourselves of the potential benefits, insights and efficiencies that are available through the use of AI Technologies“ — „Wir beabsichtigen, die möglichen Vorteile, Erkenntnisse und Effizienzgewinne zu nutzen, die durch den Einsatz von KI-Technologien verfügbar sind“. Eine bloße Absichtserklärung plus Standard-Risikohinweis begründet nach dem Kriterienkatalog weder „nutzt KI“ noch „bedroht“ — es bleibt bei „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-07 · 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-K 2026-03-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-05 · 10-Q 2025-08-15 · 8-K 2026-06-08
Rated on August 23, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -16.3%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year no data
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 9.6%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 502.7%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 73.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 2.7 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -265 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago no data
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 48.9%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -19.3%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% –
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -12.4%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% –
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 3.2x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% 39.3%
- ROCE > 15% –
- Expected return > 10% –
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Kestrel Group Ltd engages in the reinsurance business. It operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The company offers fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
- Employees
- 44
- Headquarters
- Hamilton, Bermuda
- Address
- 11 Bermudiana Road, HM 08 Hamilton, Bermuda
- Phone
- 441 298 4900
- Website
- kestrelgroup.com
- IPO Date
- 06/25/1998
- ISIN
- BMG5260K1027
- Stock Split
- 1:20 on 05/28/2025
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Terry Lee Ledbetter | Executive Chairman | 1953 |
| Bradford Luke Ledbetter | CEO & Director | 1982 |
| Patrick Joseph Haveron CPA | President & CFO | 1961 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/07/2026 Kestrel Group Ltd (KG): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.