Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The operating business is healthy: $1,981 million of gross revenue less network fees in 2025 with 46 percent growth, $634 million of operating cash flow, $970 million of adjusted EBITDA, positive equity of $1,770 million and no sign of going-concern doubt or broken covenants. There is no substance finding in the sense of going concern or negative equity, and full-year interest coverage in 2025 was 1.85, above one. What is open is the decisive question: whether the $2.7 billion acquisition pays off is unproven. In the first quarter of 2026 interest coverage was 0.77, common stockholders were left with a loss, 63.8 percent of total assets are goodwill and intangible assets, tangible equity is around minus $3,821 million, and six weeks after the quarterly report another billion of credit arrived with no stated purpose. That is the textbook case for yellow: not a sick business, but an unproven and debt-financed rebuild. Valuation does not determine this color. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Shift4 runs card payments for restaurants, hotels, stadiums and theme parks. Gross revenue hit $4,180 million in 2025 and rose another 32 percent to $1,121 million in the first quarter of 2026. In that same quarter common stockholders were left with a loss of one million dollars. In between sits a $2.7 billion price tag for Global Blue, a debt load that has tripled in two and a half years, and a market capitalization our own data source overstates by a quarter. We did the arithmetic ourselves — line by line, with the annual report on the table.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at FOUR since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 8 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 53.00 $ — 26% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIShift4 setzt eigene KI- und Machine-Learning-Modelle im gesamten Geschäft ein und betreibt mit dem SkyTab Website Builder ein KI-gestütztes Produkt, weist aber in keinem Bericht KI als eigene Umsatzquelle aus.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We use artificial intelligence, machine learning, and automated decision-making technologies, including proprietary artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms throughout our business, and are making significant investments to continuously improve our use of such technologies. For example, we use machine learning, artificial intelligence and automated decision-making technologies in our SkyTab Website Builder, a tool powered by artificial intelligence for restaurants to quickly and easily create a website for their business."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungstechnologien ein, darunter eigene KI- und Machine-Learning-Algorithmen im gesamten Geschäft, und investieren erheblich, um unseren Einsatz dieser Technologien laufend zu verbessern. Beispielsweise nutzen wir maschinelles Lernen, künstliche Intelligenz und automatisierte Entscheidungstechnologien in unserem SkyTab Website Builder, einem KI-gestützten Werkzeug, mit dem Restaurants schnell und einfach eine Website für ihren Betrieb erstellen können.
„Developing, testing, and deploying these technologies may also increase the cost profile of our products due to the level of investment needed to enable such initiatives."
Die Entwicklung, Erprobung und Einführung dieser Technologien kann wegen des dafür nötigen Investitionsumfangs auch die Kostenstruktur unserer Produkte erhöhen.
„Our use of artificial intelligence and machine learning tools may subject us to additional risks and may adversely impact our reputation and the performance of our products, service offerings and business."
Unser Einsatz von Werkzeugen der künstlichen Intelligenz und des maschinellen Lernens kann uns zusätzlichen Risiken aussetzen und unserem Ruf sowie der Leistungsfähigkeit unserer Produkte, Dienstleistungen und unseres Geschäfts schaden.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-27 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-K 2025-02-19 · 10-K 2024-02-29 · 8-K 2026-07-13 · 8-K 2026-06-17
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 14.8% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 23
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 5.55 | 5.07 – 5.84 | 5,101 | 7.4% | 24 |
| 12/31/2027 | 6.73 | 5.44 – 8.65 | 5,811 | 21.2% | 23 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.97 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.29 | 456.40 | 887 | 25.70 | 13.10 | 145 | 89 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.18 | -39.50 | 848 | 19.90 | 2.00 | 97 | 45 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.38 | -34.60 | 966 | 16.80 | 3.50 | 142 | 93 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.31 | -48.50 | 1,177 | 29.40 | 2.40 | 172 | 273 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.37 | -71.30 | 1,189 | 34.00 | 2.10 | 224 | 187 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.20 | 10.60 | 1,121 | 32.10 | 1.30 | 134 | 63 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 561 | -13 | -55 | -1.42 | 26 | 41 | 739 |
| 2019 | 731 | -4 | -57 | -1.23 | 27 | -29 | 784 |
| 2020 | 767 | -58 | -18 | -0.41 | 23 | 460 | 1,779 |
| 2021 | 1,368 | -49 | -49 | -0.89 | 29 | 273 | 2,343 |
| 2022 | 1,994 | 95 | 75 | 0.91 | 275 | 347 | 2,554 |
| 2023 | 2,565 | 115 | 86 | 1.46 | 388 | 868 | 3,388 |
| 2024 | 3,331 | 247 | 230 | 2.51 | 500 | 807 | 5,041 |
| 2025 | 4,180 | 351 | 119 | 1.34 | 634 | 1,442 | 8,713 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Gross revenue less network fees rose 46 percent to $1,981 million in 2025 and another 49 percent to $549 million in the first quarter of 2026. Payment volume grew by $44 billion, or 27 percent, in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA climbed from $678 million to $970 million.
Debt principal grew from $1,773 million (Dec 31, 2023) to $4,589 million (Dec 31, 2025); on July 8, 2026 a $1.0 billion term loan for "general corporate purposes" was added. Interest expense rose from $62 million (2024) to $190 million (2025); in the first quarter of 2026 it exceeded income from operations at $65 million against $50 million.
As of March 31, 2026, $1,770 million of equity stands against total assets of $8,757 million (20.2 percent). Goodwill and other intangible assets account for $5,591 million, or 63.8 percent of total assets; tangible equity is roughly minus $3,821 million. The retained deficit deepened during the quarter from minus $467 million to minus $644 million.
The 10,423,296 preferred shares outstanding on March 31, 2026 convert mandatorily by May 1, 2028; at the maximum rate of 1.2224 that creates 12,741,437 new Class A shares and a good 16 percent dilution. Until then the preferred stock costs roughly $60 million of dividends per year. The 2025 buybacks at an average of $73.23 are roughly $154 million under water against the close of July 24, 2026.
Since the Transaction Agreement of February 7, 2026 there is only one class of stock: Class B and Class C have been retired, and the annual meeting of June 12, 2026 struck them from the charter. That ended the founder's voting control and future payments under the tax receivable agreement; the revolving facility is undrawn and only $10 million falls due within twelve months.
Roughly $3.84 billion of market capitalization (79,328,924 shares at a closing price of $48.40 on July 24, 2026) equals about 1.9 times gross revenue less network fees; after mandatory conversion it is roughly $4.46 billion and 2.3 times. Enterprise value stands at roughly $9.6 billion, or 9.9 times adjusted EBITDA. The market value in the fundamental data ($4.79 billion) counts the retired Class B shares and is not used here.
Shift4 has doubled in size through acquisitions in two and a half years — paid for with $2,719 million for Global Blue, a debt principal that rose from $1,773 million to roughly $5,600 million, and $1.0 billion of preferred stock that must become common stock by May 1, 2028. The operating business carries its weight: $1,981 million of gross revenue less network fees in 2025, $970 million of adjusted EBITDA, $634 million of operating cash flow. Very little of that has reached shareholders so far — in the first quarter of 2026, after $65 million of interest and $16 million of preferred dividends, a loss of $0.01 per share remained, on 32 percent revenue growth. Two figures are worth recalculating yourself: the market capitalization, which our data source overstates by a quarter because it still counts the retired Class B shares, and the Altman Z, which lands at roughly 1.0 rather than 3.83 when run against the audited accounts. Not investment advice.
- Shift4 came onto the research list through our in-house stock scanner "Turnaround Candidates". Measured separately on both brands on July 27, 2026: 60 U.S. hits, of which the 25 strongest are shown, the weakest of those carrying 6 of 8 points. Shift4 is listed as a hit of that scanner on both company pages but appears on neither visible list — rank 26 or lower out of 60. These lists are recomputed daily; rank and score are a dated snapshot. The mandatory pillars are at least 50 percent below the all-time high (measured value minus 64.81) and secured survival, measured among other things by the Altman Z (3.83 in the data set against a threshold of 1.1) and positive equity (equity ratio 0.1888).
- On the Altman Z, explained openly in the article: the 3.83 in the data set is the Z″ variant (four balance-sheet ratios, book value instead of market value, cut-offs 1.1 distress / 2.6 safe) and is therefore correct — the scanner's mandatory hurdle is cleared as the rules intend. The original 1968 formula run against the same accounts yields roughly 1.0 (balance sheet of March 31, 2026, trailing twelve-month earnings and revenue, market capitalization from 79,328,924 shares) or roughly 1.1 using the December 31, 2025 balance sheet. These are two different models with different weights and cut-offs, not one number on two scales. The article additionally argues from the raw balance sheet figures because neither variant captures the negative tangible equity. The Piotroski score of 6 of 9 was recalculated from the 2024 and 2025 annual accounts and confirmed.
- Multi-class finding: the market value in the fundamental data ($4,792,932,864) equals $48.35 times 99,129,952 shares — Class A (79,328,924 per the cover page of the quarterly report as of April 30, 2026) plus the Class B shares retired in February 2026 (19,801,028). It is therefore roughly a quarter too high and is not used in the article; every calculation uses the share count from the filing.
- The fiscal year matches the calendar year. The most recent periodic report is the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (filed May 7, 2026). Filed after that and up to the July 27, 2026 data date: Form 8-K dated June 17, 2026 (annual meeting of June 12, 2026, Item 5.07, including removal of Class B and C from the charter and ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditor for 2026), Form 8-K dated July 13, 2026 (Amendment No. 4, $1.0 billion incremental term loan) and insider and ownership filings. The report for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 was not yet available.
- Price and valuation figures are dated anchors, not buy arguments: closing price $48.40 on July 24, 2026, market capitalization roughly $3.84 billion, calculated with the 79,328,924 shares from the cover page of the quarterly report (April 30, 2026). All balance sheet and income figures carry the reporting date of their respective filing.
- As of July 27, 2026 no takeover, merger or take-private process is under way: no Form 25, no Form 15, no SC 14D9. The only tender offer in the record (SC TO-T dated March 21, 2025) was filed by Shift4 itself and concerned its purchase of Global Blue.
- Easily confused: "FOUR" is the Class A common stock, "FOUR.PRA" the 6.00 percent mandatory convertible preferred stock — both listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Shift4 Payments, Inc. is the listed parent; Shift4 Payments, LLC is the operating subsidiary and the borrower under the term loans. Global Blue Group Holding AG has not existed as a separate listed company since the squeeze-out of August 18, 2025.
About the Company
Shift4 Payments, Inc. befasst sich mit der Bereitstellung von Software- und Zahlungsabwicklungslösungen in den USA und international.
| CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.) | selling own stock |
|---|---|
| Employees | 6,300 |
| Headquarters | Center Valley, PA |
| Address | 3501 Corporate Parkway, 18034 Center Valley, United States |
| Phone | 888 276 2108 |
| Website | shift4.com |
| IPO Date | 5. Jun 2020 |
| ISIN | US82452J1097 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David Taylor Lauber | Chairman of the Board, President & CEO | 1984 |
| Christopher Nestor Cruz | Chief Financial Officer | 1984 |
| Jordan Ross Frankel | Secretary, General Counsel and Executive VP Legal, Risk & Compliance | 1983 |
| Doug Demko | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Filippos Mintiloglitis | Interim Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Thomas Craig McCrohan | Executive Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Nate Hirshberg | Senior Vice President of Marketing | – |
| Kim Rodgers | Chief HR Officer | – |
| Brendan Lauber | Vice Chairman | – |
| Michael Isaacman | Chief Commercial Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.