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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
MSFT

Microsoft Corporation

Technology · Software - Infrastructure · listed since 1986

497.80$ +1.5% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Quality confirmed Promises repeatedly deferred

Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.

Why this colour

Company quality is documented: a profitable, high-margin core business, $442.4 billion of stockholders' equity, $76.8 billion of liquidity, interest cover of roughly 51, no accounting or governance breach, and unusually transparent reporting — Microsoft voluntarily strips out its own OpenAI book gain and, from fiscal 2026, discloses its dealings with OpenAI as a related-party relationship. Anyone buying in is nevertheless betting that the $115.9 billion invested in a single year will return later as cash flow; until then profit grows while the money actually left over shrinks. What you make of that is your decision.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

Microsoft remains one of the most profitable companies in the world: a 46.8 percent operating margin in fiscal year 2026, an order book of $678 billion and a cloud business that grew 27 percent to $214.4 billion. The price sits in the same cash flow statement: $115.9 billion of investment in a single year, free cash flow down for the second year running, and $329.1 billion of leases that have not even commenced. Add a $5.0 billion book gain from the OpenAI dilution that Microsoft strips out itself, and an order book whose growth falls from 84 to 25 percent once OpenAI is excluded. Not investment advice.

Demand and market position

Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 84 percent to $678 billion as of June 30, 2026; Azure grew 41 percent for the year and passed $100 billion of annual revenue for the first time; Microsoft Cloud reached $214.4 billion, up 27 percent. One qualification: excluding OpenAI's Azure commitments, the order book grew only 25 percent (Form 10-K 2026, earnings call of July 29, 2026).

Earnings power

Operating margin of 46.8 percent in fiscal year 2026 (prior year 45.6 percent), net margin 40.3 percent, return on equity roughly 34 percent (data as of August 9, 2026). Even after stripping out the OpenAI book gain, $128.8 billion of profit remains for the year.

Cash flow after investment

Free cash flow fell in fiscal year 2026 from $71.6 billion to $67.0 billion even though net income rose 31 percent — the second decline in a row. The cause is additions to property and equipment (FY 2025: $64.6 billion; FY 2026: $115.9 billion). Of every dollar taken in from operations, 37 cents stayed free; in fiscal 2022 it was 73 cents.

Earnings quality

$5.0 billion of the $133.7 billion of fiscal 2026 net income is a non-cash book gain from the dilution of the OpenAI stake. Microsoft discloses it transparently and strips it out itself — the adjusted increase is 22 percent rather than 31 (Form 10-K 2026, section Non-GAAP Financial Measures).

Balance sheet and debt

Stockholders' equity $442.4 billion, cash and short-term investments $76.8 billion, bond debt $40.3 billion as of June 30, 2026. Even including $66.6 billion of finance leases, leverage stays low relative to earnings power; interest expense of $3.1 billion sits against $155.2 billion of operating income, an interest cover of roughly 51.

Off-balance-sheet commitments

As of June 30, 2026, $329.1 billion of leases had not yet commenced — up from $92.7 billion a year earlier. That is roughly four times all recognised lease liabilities combined ($88.5 billion). Together with construction and purchase commitments, the filing reports $743.8 billion of contractual obligations (Form 10-K 2026, Note 13 and Item 7).

Worth Noting

Origin of the first edition: ranking of the 100 largest U.S. stocks by market capitalization (as of July 28, 2026); Microsoft ranked fifth and had no analysis yet.

Data basis: annual and balance sheet figures from the Form 10-K for fiscal year 2026 (filed July 29, 2026, accession 0001193125-26-323660); quarterly figures and the Anthropic book gain from the earnings release on Form 8-K of July 29, 2026 (accession 0001193125-26-323632, Exhibit 99.1); management statements from the transcript of the earnings call of July 29, 2026; valuation metrics as of August 9, 2026.

Easily confused: Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30. "Fiscal year 2026" means July 2025 through June 2026 — not calendar 2026. The filing of July 29, 2026 is therefore an annual report with a closing quarter, not a "second quarter 2026" report.

Analyses are evergreen; a daily share price is not a reason to buy.

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MSFT since then.

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Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 352.80 $ to 542.10 $ · Last price: 497.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 3,632.6$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 7,426m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 99.9%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. 1.1

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. -13.70%
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. 3.50%
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. -24.10%
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). -22.30%
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. -36.5%
Perf. 1Y ?Price performance over the last 12 months. -1.60%
Perf. 3Y ?Price performance over the last 3 years. 54.26%
Perf. 5Y ?Price performance over the last 5 years. 72.95%
Perf. 10Y ?Price performance over the last 10 years. 879.13%
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (03/13/1986) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. 843,544.07%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 485.10$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 462.50$
MA 200 Days ?Moving average of the last 200 trading days — the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. 431.60$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 55.6
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 22.9%
Volatility 250 Days ?Price swings over the last 250 trading days (roughly one market year), annualized. 32.3%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E. 30.8
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 25.0
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey. 1.6
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. 9.3
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. 10.9
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. 17.6
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up. 54.2

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. 67.9%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. 46.3%
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. 40.3%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? 34.0%
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). 14.1%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. 59.7%
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. 0.2
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. fortress balance sheet 8.11
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. 6 out of 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 18.30%
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 23.40%
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. 14.93%
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 16.62%
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 14.90%

Dividend

Dividend Yield ?Annual dividend divided by the current price: what percentage of your investment comes back as a payout each year. 0.73%
Dividend Per Share (TTM) ?Sum of dividends paid per share over the last 12 months. 3.64$
Payout Ratio ?Share of profit paid out as dividends. Over 100% means the company is paying out more than it earns — not sustainable long-term. 20.3%
Years Without a Cut ?How many years in a row the dividend hasn't been cut — a measure of reliability. 20Years
Increase Streak ?How many years in a row the dividend has been raised — the gold standard for dividend payers. 20Years

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line. 4
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks. 18
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth. 68
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. B (67 out of 100)

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Software - Infrastructure

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
Microsoft Corporation MSFT 3,632.6 30.8 17.6 67.9 46.3 14.9 -1.6
Oracle Corporation ORCL 435.3 24.7 14.8 64.0 36.2 17.4 -49.5
Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR 432.5 199.0 147.5 84.8 46.2 56.2 4.7
Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW 305.7 302.6 194.0 70.4 -2.5 14.9 84.7
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc CRWD 248.2 490.1 75.2 -2.2 21.7 120.6
Fortinet Inc FTNT 124.2 61.8 39.6 80.2 31.3 14.2 115.0
Cloudflare Inc NET 115.1 2,805.8 72.6 -9.7 29.9 56.1
Synopsys Inc SNPS 73.0 77.0 22.3 82.9 10.4 15.1 -10.4
Block, Inc XYZ 46.0 58.5 12.0 46.6 -2.6 0.3 1.1
Median of companies shown 248.2 61.8 39.6 72.6 10.4 15.1 4.7

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2017 · Revenue: 96,571 $M 2017 · Operating income: 29,025 $M 2017 · Net income: 25,489 $M 2018 · Revenue: 110,360 $M 2018 · Operating income: 35,058 $M 2018 · Net income: 16,571 $M 2019 · Revenue: 125,843 $M 2019 · Operating income: 42,959 $M 2019 · Net income: 39,240 $M 2020 · Revenue: 143,015 $M 2020 · Operating income: 52,959 $M 2020 · Net income: 44,281 $M 2021 · Revenue: 168,088 $M 2021 · Operating income: 69,916 $M 2021 · Net income: 61,271 $M 2022 · Revenue: 198,270 $M 2022 · Operating income: 83,383 $M 2022 · Net income: 72,738 $M 2023 · Revenue: 211,915 $M 2023 · Operating income: 88,523 $M 2023 · Net income: 72,361 $M 2024 · Revenue: 245,122 $M 2024 · Operating income: 109,433 $M 2024 · Net income: 88,136 $M 2025 · Revenue: 281,724 $M 2025 · Operating income: 128,528 $M 2025 · Net income: 101,832 $M 2026 · Revenue: 331,839 $M 2026 · Operating income: 155,237 $M 2026 · Net income: 133,749 $M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2017 96,571 29,025 25,489 3.25 39,507 72,394 241,086
2018 110,360 35,058 16,571 2.13 43,884 82,718 258,848
2019 125,843 42,959 39,240 5.06 52,185 102,330 286,556
2020 143,015 52,959 44,281 5.76 60,675 118,304 301,311
2021 168,088 69,916 61,271 8.05 76,740 141,988 333,779
2022 198,270 83,383 72,738 9.65 89,035 166,542 364,840
2023 211,915 88,523 72,361 9.68 87,582 206,223 411,976
2024 245,122 109,433 88,136 11.80 118,548 268,477 512,163
2025 281,724 128,528 101,832 13.64 136,162 343,479 619,003
2026 331,839 155,237 133,749 17.95 182,935 442,387 758,376

Quarters

Quarterly Figures

Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.

Revenue & Profit

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Margins

Per Share

Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.

None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.

These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.

The figures could not be loaded right now.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 69,632.0 $M Q4 2025: Q1 · 70,066.0 $M Q1 2025: Q2 · 76,441.0 $M Q2 2025: Q3 · 77,673.0 $M Q3 2025: Q4 · 81,273.0 $M Q4 2026: Q1 · 82,886.0 $M Q1 2026: Q2 · 90,007.0 $M Q2

Source: fundamental data

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2024: Q4 3.23 10.20 69,632 12.30 34.60 22,291 6,487
2025: Q1 3.46 17.90 70,066 13.30 36.90 37,044 20,299
2025: Q2 3.65 23.80 76,441 18.10 35.60 42,647 25,568
2025: Q3 3.72 12.50 77,673 18.40 35.70 45,057 25,663
2025: Q4 5.16 59.70 81,273 16.70 47.30 35,758 5,882
2026: Q1 4.27 23.30 82,886 18.30 38.30 46,679 15,803
2026: Q2 4.81 31.80 90,007 17.70 39.70 55,441 19,639

What Do These Terms Mean?

EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Compare with other stocks →

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Backtested Scanners

Best Hits

Quality & Balance Sheet

Research

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus Strong Sell 1 = Strong buy … 5 = Strong sell
Analyst Ratings 61
Price Target (average) 572.92$
Distance to price 15.1% The price target sits 15.1% above the current price.

Distribution of Recommendations

Strong Buy 41
Buy 15
Hold 5
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Estimates by Fiscal Year

Estimates by Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year EPS Estimate ($) EPS Range ($) Revenue Estimate ($M) Expected Growth Analysts
06/30/2027 19.75 19.21 – 20.70 391,082 14.3% 33
06/30/2028 23.57 20.93 – 26.00 467,322 19.3% 33

Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.

Valuation

What is priced in?

Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.

Today’s market value implies roughly 21.3% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).

What is priced in?
Free cash flow (last twelve months) $66.99B
Market cap $3.63T
Free cash flow in year ten $462.79B
Terminal value as a share of market value 67.1%

For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 3.6% per year.

It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.

A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Sells AI

Microsoft verkauft KI unmittelbar als Umsatzquelle: Azure-KI-Dienste und Microsoft 365 Copilot sind im Geschäftsbericht 2026 als eigene Produktlinien und Treiber des Umsatzes je Nutzer beschrieben, der Bericht führt den Rückgang der Cloud-Bruttomarge auf 66 Prozent ausdrücklich auf die wachsende Nutzung von KI-Produkten zurück, und Microsoft weist erstmals 24,1 Mrd. US-Dollar Umsatz aus kommerziellen Vereinbarungen mit OpenAI aus.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Azure AI offerings provide a competitive advantage as companies seek ways to optimize and scale their business with AI."

Azure-KI-Angebote verschaffen uns einen Wettbewerbsvorteil, weil Unternehmen nach Wegen suchen, ihr Geschäft mit KI zu optimieren und zu skalieren.

10-K · 2026-07-29 · View SEC filing

„Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage decreased to 66% driven by continued investments in AI infrastructure and growing AI product usage, offset in part by efficiency gains in Azure and Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud."

Die Bruttomarge von Microsoft Cloud sank auf 66 Prozent, getrieben von den anhaltenden Investitionen in KI-Infrastruktur und der wachsenden Nutzung von KI-Produkten, teilweise ausgeglichen durch Effizienzgewinne bei Azure und Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud.

10-K · 2026-07-29 · View SEC filing

„Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17% with growth in revenue per user driven by Microsoft 365 Copilot and Microsoft 365 E5."

Der Umsatz von Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud wuchs um 17 Prozent, wobei der Umsatz je Nutzer von Microsoft 365 Copilot und Microsoft 365 E5 getrieben wurde.

10-K · 2026-07-29 · View SEC filing

„We hold rights to OpenAI’s intellectual property, including models and infrastructure, for integration into our products."

Wir halten Rechte am geistigen Eigentum von OpenAI, einschließlich Modellen und Infrastruktur, zur Integration in unsere Produkte.

10-K · 2026-07-29 · View SEC filing

Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-07-29 · 8-K 2026-07-29 · 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 10-Q 2026-01-28 · 10-Q 2025-10-29 · 10-K 2025-07-30

Rated on August 9, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Earnings calls

What the Earnings Calls Reveal

Microsoft delivers with notable operational reliability: quarterly guidance for Azure, revenue and margin was met or beaten almost without exception across all ten calls reviewed, and management openly admits weak spots such as the go-to-market problems in its scale motion (2025-Q2). What stands out is something else: dated commitments were repeatedly cancelled or pushed further out, and precisely those metrics that would let outsiders check the AI business appear and vanish again instead of forming a continuous series. Anyone valuing Microsoft therefore has to separate the execution, which holds up, from the disclosure, which is narrowing.

Red flags Promises repeatedly deferred 10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q3 · As of August 2, 2026

The capacity promise was pushed out four times

In the 2025-Q2 call, CFO Amy Hood committed that the company would be 'roughly in line with near-term demand' on AI compute capacity by the end of fiscal 2025. By 2025-Q3 this had become 'some AI capacity constraints beyond June', and in the same call she conceded: 'we had hoped to be in balance by the end of Q4'. In 2025-Q4 she moved the target to December, saying: 'I thought we'd be in better supply demand shape by June. And now I'm saying I hope I'm in better shape by December.' In 2026-Q1 came the admission 'I thought we were going to catch up, we are not', together with a shortage forecast running to at least the end of the fiscal year, and by 2026-Q3 the forecast already runs 'at least through 2026'. Management attributes the cause to rising demand, not to a failure to build out. The commitment itself, however, was not met in a single one of the five following calls.

Capex brake announced, reaffirmed for three quarters, then released

In the 2025-Q2 call, management explicitly announced a lower capital expenditure growth rate for fiscal 2026 than in fiscal 2025. That statement was confirmed verbatim in 2025-Q3 ('remain unchanged') and reaffirmed again in 2025-Q4. In 2026-Q1 it was reversed: the growth rate would now be higher than in the prior year. The reasoning came in the same sentence and is plausible, namely accelerating demand and a growing contracted backlog. In numbers the reversal means a jump from 20.0 billion US dollars of quarterly capex (2025-Q1) to 37.5 billion (2026-Q2) and a calendar 2026 plan of roughly 190 billion US dollars (2026-Q3). For investors it nonetheless remains a planning figure that was confirmed for three quarters and then discarded entirely.

AI metrics come and go

From 2024-Q2 through 2025-Q3, the company disclosed in every call how many points of Azure revenue growth came from AI services: 6, 7, 8, roughly 12, 13 and finally 16 points. From 2025-Q4 onward this disclosure was dropped without replacement; since then it is only stated that AI revenue was 'generally in line with expectations'. The removal was explained a quarter earlier, in 2025-Q3, by Amy Hood: 'It's getting harder and harder to separate what an AI workload is from a non-AI workload.' The 'AI business annual revenue run rate' metric followed a similar path: announced in 2025-Q1 at 10 billion US dollars for the following quarter, put at 13 billion in 2025-Q2, then not mentioned at all for four quarters, and only picked up again in 2026-Q3 at 37 billion. The calls provide no evidence that the disclosures vanished because they had turned weak: both were discontinued right after their highest reading, and the run rate almost tripled from 13 to 37 billion US dollars during the gap. What remains is the loss of a continuous yardstick.

No Copilot seat number for two years

Between the market launch in late 2023 and the 2026-Q2 call, the company disclosed no absolute number of paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. Questions about Copilot's progress, among others in 2024-Q2, 2024-Q4, 2025-Q1 and 2025-Q2, were answered with proxies: share of Fortune 500 companies, number of customers with more than 10,000 seats, growth in seat adds, 'customers coming back to buy more seats'. In 2025-Q1, asked why Copilot was not visible in the numbers, Amy Hood explained that the contribution sits in Microsoft 365 Commercial ARPU and is masked there by a large volume of low-priced new seats. The first hard figure came in 2026-Q2, at 15 million paid seats, rising to over 20 million in 2026-Q3. Other Copilot products carried absolute figures throughout, for instance 1.3 million paid GitHub Copilot subscriptions in 2024-Q2 and 4.7 million in 2026-Q2. The gap therefore applied specifically to the metric for the most important new productivity product.

The question of the crossover point stays open

Since 2024-Q4, nearly every call has included the question of when capex growth will fall back below revenue growth, among others in 2025-Q1, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3. Management has still not named a date. It does explain the mechanism, however: in 2025-Q1 Amy Hood said capex growth would slow and revenue growth would rise, with the pace depending entirely on the pace of adoption. In 2025-Q4 she was explicit: 'I am not as focused on trying to pick a date at which revenue growth and CapEx growth will meet and cross.' In 2026-Q2 she additionally shifted the yardstick, asking that the Azure guide be read as an allocation figure, meaning what is left of scarce capacity for Azure; had all new chips been allocated to Azure, the growth rate would have been 'over 40'. That very number cannot be verified from outside. In the same call, roughly 45 percent of the 625 billion US dollar backlog came from a single partner; asked about it, Amy Hood pointed to the remaining 55 percent, some 350 billion US dollars from a broad customer base growing 28 percent, and called the partnership sound, without addressing the risk attached to the partner itself.

What was kept: margin and Azure acceleration

The counter-finding belongs here, because the actual earnings guidance was delivered reliably. For fiscal 2025 an operating margin down by roughly one point was announced from 2024-Q3 onward; in 2025-Q2 the expectation was raised to 'up slightly' and in 2025-Q4 reported as exceeded. The commitment given in 2024-Q4 that Azure growth would accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2025 was honoured: 34 and 31 percent in the first half became 35 and 39 percent in the second. Quarterly Azure guidance from 2026-Q1 onward also came in consistently below the actual result, for instance roughly 37 percent guided against 40 percent delivered in 2026-Q1. Weak spots were named rather than skirted, such as the go-to-market problems in the indirect business in 2025-Q2 and their only partial repair in 2025-Q3.

Management promises

  • 2024-Q4 — Azure growth is to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2025 as the capital investments bring additional AI capacity online. Met. After 34 and 31 percent growth in the first half came 35 percent in 2025-Q3 and 39 percent in 2025-Q4. kept
  • 2024-Q4 — The fiscal 2025 operating margin is to fall by only about one point despite the AI investments. Exceeded. In 2025-Q2 the expectation was raised to 'up slightly', and in 2025-Q4 the company reported the commitment had been exceeded. kept
  • 2025-Q2 — By the end of fiscal 2025, AI capacity is to be roughly in balance with near-term demand. Broken and then deferred four more times: to 'beyond June' (2025-Q3), to December (2025-Q4), to the end of the fiscal year (2026-Q1) and most recently to at least the end of 2026 (2026-Q3). broken
  • 2025-Q2 — Capital expenditure is to grow more slowly in fiscal 2026 than in fiscal 2025. Broken. After confirmation in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q4, the statement was reversed in 2026-Q1; quarterly spending rose to 37.5 billion US dollars by 2026-Q2. broken
  • 2025-Q4 — For fiscal 2026, double-digit revenue and operating income growth plus a largely unchanged operating margin are put in prospect. On track but not yet closed: revenue and operating income grew at double-digit rates from 2026-Q1 through 2026-Q3, and in 2026-Q3 the margin expectation was even raised to a gain of about one point. The full-year closing call was not yet available as of this review. open

Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q3.

Growth

Growth Score

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

7 of 10 Solid growth
  • Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 16.1%
  • More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 16.6%
  • Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.1%
  • Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 38.0%
  • Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 67.9%
  • Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 15.8%
  • Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.3 x EBITDA
  • Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 113,928 m
  • Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 26.3%
  • Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.1%

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail

Quality check

AAQS

10/10 Quality stock

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% 14.7%
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 18.7%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 20.5%
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 14.6%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT 0.3x
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50% 0.0%
  • Return on equity > 15% 44.0%
  • ROCE > 15% 26.3%
  • Expected return > 10% 16.7%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Sep 15, 2026 Jolla Alice L. Chief Accounting Officer Other 123 505.41 62,165
Sep 15, 2026 Coleman Amy EVP, Chief Human Resources Off Other 36 505.41 18,195
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 3,942 500.78 1,974,087
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 8,834 500.11 4,418,003
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 4,305 498.88 2,147,698
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 9,821 497.78 4,888,746
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 10,433 496.91 5,184,281
Sep 14, 2026 Hood Amy EVP, Chief Financial Officer Sell 4,339 495.97 2,152,031
Sep 9, 2026 Smith Bradford L Vice Chair and President Other 14,000 0.00
Sep 5, 2026 Stanton John W Director Other 125 0.00

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

Microsoft Corporation entwickelt und betreut weltweit Software, Dienste, Geräte und Lösungen. Das Segment Productivity and Business Processes umfasst Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Windows Commercial, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Sicherheit und mehr.

Employees
223,000
Headquarters
Redmond, WA
Address
One Microsoft Way, 98052-6399 Redmond, United States
Phone
425 882 8080
IPO Date
03/13/1986
ISIN
US5949181045
Stock Split
2:1 on 02/18/2003
Stock Split
2:1 on 03/29/1999
Stock Split
2:1 on 02/23/1998

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
Satya Nadella Chairman & CEO 1967
Bradford L. Smith LCA President & Vice Chairman 1959
Amy E. Hood Executive VP & CFO 1972
Takeshi Numoto Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer 1971
Judson B. Althoff Executive VP & CEO of Commercial Business 1973
Carolina Dybeck Happe Executive VP & COO 1972
Alice L. Jolla Corporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer 1966
Matthew Kerner CTO & Corporate VP of Worldwide Sales and Solutions
Jonathan Neilson Vice President of Investor Relations
Jonathan M. Palmer Corporate Vice President & Chief Legal Officer

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 09/02/2026 MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
  • 07/29/2026 MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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