Republic Airways Holdings Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The business works and has made money for years, and the balance sheet holds (leverage 2.2x, twelve months of financing covered). One material operating question is open, though: does the margin hold when the pilot contracts are renegotiated and the Delta contracts extended – with three customers who also own almost 58 percent of the shares? In addition, third-quarter 2026 growth hangs almost nine-tenths on one customer and one merger. That is not a solvency risk, but it is an unresolved dependency. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Republic Airways is a solid contract business with predictable revenue whose latest profit jump is half arithmetic: adjusted, operating income grew 34.7 percent in the third quarter of 2026 at the same margin. Growth comes almost entirely from one customer and one merger, three customers own almost 58 percent of the company, and the key contracts and labor agreements are open over the next years. Not investment advice.
Business model
Fixed fees under capacity purchase agreements: fuel, fares and load factors are the partners’ burden. Revenue grew from $1,429.1M to $1,676.5M in 2023–2025, net income from $54.8M to $76.2M; contracts run on average to 2028 (Delta), 2030 (American) and 2034 (United).
Earnings quality
Quarterly profit ($34.6M versus $6.7M) is half a base effect: $18.3M of severance and merger costs dropped out. Adjusted, operating income is +34.7 percent at an unchanged 12.6 percent margin; over nine months net income is +30.2 percent.
Customer dependence & owners
Three customers supply all flying revenue (United 44.5, American 35.3, Delta 18.7 percent in Q3 2026) and own about 57.7 percent of the shares. 88 percent of the extra revenue comes from United; the Delta extension (end of 2028) is open.
Balance sheet & cash flow
Debt and finance leases $1,024.6M, net debt including leases $863M (2.2x, prior year 2.8x); equity $1,422.5M. Operating cash flow fell 10.1 percent to $186.1M over nine months; interest expense is $49.9M ($49.3M paid).
Margins & integration
Adjusted EBITDA margin 18.8 versus 21.4 percent over nine months; completion factor 94.59 versus 95.92 percent (weather-related per management). Pilot contracts are open (arbitration possible from mid-December 2026); management names no cost.
Worth Noting
The occasion for this analysis is the quarterly report for September 30, 2026 (filed October 30, 2026). One-offs and adjusted figures have their own chapter; quoting profit without adjustment would be misleading.
Data portals sometimes show a loss per share for the third quarter of 2025; the quarterly report shows $0.17 of profit. For time series before December 2025, Mesa figures are not comparable with Republic (merger, 15-for-1 reverse split).
Valuation figures dated: price $19.32 (close of October 30, 2026), 45.95 million shares (September 30, 2026). Our own calculations are marked in the text; daily prices are not a reason to buy.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 31, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at RJET since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 1.30 $ to 24.80 $ · Last price: 19.20 $ (As of: November 3, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 11/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Airlines
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways Holdings Inc RJET | 0.9 | – | 10.0 | 34.2 | – | 13.7 | -3.1 |
| Delta Air Lines Inc DAL | 54.4 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 17.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 43.9 |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc UAL | 34.0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 30.9 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 11.6 |
| Southwest Airlines Company LUV | 21.3 | 29.4 | 7.6 | 22.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 45.3 |
| LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM | 12.9 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 27.0 | 5.3 | 11.2 | 0.7 |
| American Airlines Group AAL | 8.5 | 42.0 | 33.5 | 20.8 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.4 |
| Copa Holdings SA CPA | 5.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 37.7 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 13.9 |
| Alaska Air Group Inc ALK | 4.1 | 79.4 | 12.8 | 16.7 | -7.6 | 21.3 | -8.2 |
| SkyWest Inc SKYW | 3.1 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 30.9 | 12.2 | 15.0 | -18.7 |
| Median of companies shown | 8.5 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 27.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 588 | 57 | 15 | 6.41 | 104 | 189 | 1,397 |
| 2017 | 644 | 100 | 33 | 14.11 | 75 | 222 | 1,492 |
| 2018 | 682 | 96 | 33 | 19.82 | 119 | 374 | 1,578 |
| 2019 | 723 | 131 | 48 | 20.35 | 152 | 426 | 1,569 |
| 2020 | 545 | -4 | 27 | 11.67 | 175 | 458 | 1,643 |
| 2021 | 504 | -52 | 17 | 6.41 | 133 | 488 | 1,603 |
| 2022 | 1,327 | 132 | 68 | 26.65 | 190 | 308 | 1,268 |
| 2023 | 1,429 | 135 | 55 | 20.05 | 329 | 1,051 | 2,734 |
| 2024 | 1,474 | 137 | 65 | 23.35 | 226 | 1,116 | 2,768 |
| 2025 | 1,677 | 215 | 76 | 1.87 | 322 | 1,329 | 3,277 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -2.71 | – | 103 | -13.10 | -108.40 | -12 | -14 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.68 | 142.90 | 395 | 200.00 | 6.90 | 54 | 5 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.94 | – | 406 | 266.10 | 9.20 | – | – |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.34 | – | 412 | 257.30 | 1.60 | -1 | -1 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.11 | – | 464 | 349.60 | 1.10 | 357 | -35 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.57 | -16.20 | 527 | 33.60 | 5.10 | 58 | -37 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.68 | -27.70 | 571 | 40.80 | 5.50 | 49 | 29 |
| 2026: Q3 | 0.75 | 320.60 | 554 | 34.30 | 6.30 | 79 | 50 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 8 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | – | – | 0 | – | – |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 31.10.2026 gegen die drei Quartalsberichte (10-Q) 2026 und den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 von Republic Airways: In den drei Quartalsberichten kommen „artificial intelligence“ und „machine learning“ kein einziges Mal vor. Im Geschäftsbericht taucht KI nur in einem Risikohinweis zur Cybersicherheit auf — als Werkzeug von Angreifern, nicht als Produkt, Umsatzquelle oder eingesetzte Technik der Firma. Das Geschäft (Betrieb von Regionaljets im Auftrag von American, Delta und United gegen feste Vergütung) hat keinen im Filing beschriebenen KI-Bezug; ein bloßer Boilerplate-Risikohinweis begründet nach dem Kriterienkatalog weder „bedroht“ noch „nutzt“ — damit bleibt es bei „neutral“ (dokumentierter Negativ-Befund).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„threat actors are becoming increasingly sophisticated in using techniques and tools—including artificial intelligence—that circumvent security controls, evade detection and remove forensic evidence."
Angreifer gehen zunehmend raffiniert vor und nutzen Methoden und Werkzeuge — darunter künstliche Intelligenz —, die Sicherheitskontrollen umgehen, einer Entdeckung entgehen und Spuren der Täter beseitigen.
10-K · 2026-03-19 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-10-30 · 10-Q 2026-07-31 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-K 2026-03-19
Rated on October 31, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 8.1%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year no data
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 151.9%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 8.5%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 27.8%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 3.7%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 3.1 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 682 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 8.0%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 12.4%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 12.3%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -100.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 16.0%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -100.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 4.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 8
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 6.3%
- ROCE > 15% 8.0%
- Expected return > 10% -100.0%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Hornback Scott | See Remarks | Other | 2,371 | 16.96 | 40,212 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Koscal Matthew | See Remarks | Other | 11,696 | 16.96 | 198,364 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Pulley Chad M. | See Remarks | Other | 5,913 | 16.96 | 100,284 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Kinstedt Paul | Executive Vice President & COO | Other | 5,345 | 16.96 | 90,651 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Hornback Scott | See Remarks | Other | 2,371 | 20.22 | 47,942 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Koscal Matthew | See Remarks | Other | 11,695 | 20.22 | 236,473 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Pulley Chad M. | See Remarks | Other | 5,913 | 20.22 | 119,561 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Allman Joseph | Executive Vice President & CFO | Other | 5,458 | 20.22 | 110,361 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Kinstedt Paul | Executive Vice President & COO | Other | 5,345 | 20.22 | 108,076 |
The company
About the Company
Republic Airways Holdings Inc. bietet planmäßige Passagierdienste an.
- Employees
- 8,500
- Headquarters
- Carmel, IN
- Address
- 2 Brickyard Lane, 46032 Carmel, United States
- Phone
- 317 484 6000
- Website
- rjet.com
- IPO Date
- 08/10/2018
- ISIN
- US5904794089
- Stock Split
- 1:15 on 11/25/2025
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew J. Koscal | President, CEO & Director | 1977 |
| Joseph P. Allman | Executive Vice President & CFO | 1971 |
| Paul K. Kinstedt | COO & Executive VP | 1962 |
| Chad M. Pulley | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1981 |
| Scott Hornback | Principal Accounting Officer and VP of Finance & Accounting | 1977 |
| Matt Belanger | VP of Information Technology & Chief Information Officer | – |
| Lars-Erik Arnell | Chief Restructuring Officer & Senior VP of Corporate Development | 1961 |
| Elizabeth Mottley | Vice President of Human Resources | – |
| Tonya Gilbert | Managing Director of Finance | – |
| Tara Kamm | Managing Director of Tax | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: November 3, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.