Redwire Corp (RDW)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Red, because a documented governance finding touches the substance of the reporting itself — not the entry price of the stock. Redwire's own management concluded, for fiscal 2025, that internal control over financial reporting was not effective; auditor KPMG confirmed that with an "adverse opinion," the harshest rating available, and excluded the newly acquired Edge Autonomy unit — 10 percent of total assets, 32 percent of revenue — from the assessment entirely. That is a balance-sheet/governance breach under our criteria, not a footnote: when the control system for the numbers themselves isn't rated reliable, every other number in the report earns the benefit of the doubt, not certainty. That is compounded by a dilution series with no visible end: the share count has nearly tripled since August 2024, and the $500 million ATM program launched June 9, 2026 is already the third escalation within eight months. On top sits a concentration risk: $721.3 million of goodwill from the Edge acquisition, flagged by KPMG itself as a "Critical Audit Matter," already written down once by $34.7 million. In fairness, the other side deserves to be said plainly, because it does not undo this rating but does put it in context: the operating turnaround is real and documented — 27 percent gross margin in the first quarter of 2026 (prior-year quarter 15%), operating cash flow nearly break-even (−$6.7 million instead of −$45.1 million), a record backlog of $498.1 million at a book-to-bill of 1.92, plus debt paid down to just $50 million of term loan by July 1, 2026. Those results speak well of the management team that has been executing since the acquisition — but they do not cancel the governance finding; they only show that work is already underway on the operating front. Whether that is enough to move the light to yellow at the next annual report depends chiefly on a clean remediation of internal controls — not on the stock price. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Redwire Space reported a record backlog of $498.1 million for the first quarter of 2026 and a gross margin that nearly doubled within a year. The same report also says: the company's own internal control over financial reporting was not effective as of December 31, 2025, and the share count has nearly tripled since August 2024 — with a freshly launched $500 million dilution program still running. This Redwire stock forecast sorts the record backlog, the governance finding and the dilution before it names a single number. Not investment advice — just the question of which of the two stories ends up weighing more with you.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 1, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at RDW since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 8.60 $ — 17% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Sells AIDie Unternehmensbeschreibung im 10-K 2025 (Item 1 Business) und in der MD&A der Quartalsberichte führt „digital engineering and artificial intelligence automation“ als Bestandteil des eigenen Angebots; im UAS-Geschäft des Segments Defense Tech werden ausdrücklich Lösungen mit KI-gestützter Datenverarbeitung entwickelt und ausgeliefert, und das 10-K bezeichnet KI als in Teile der eigenen Software integriertes, bedeutendes und wachsendes Element des Geschäfts. KI ist damit belegter Bestandteil der verkauften Kernangebote — kein KI-Pure-Play und ohne separat ausgewiesenen KI-Umsatz. Die Risk Factors nennen zwar KI-starke Wettbewerber als Gefahr, doch nach der Vorrang-Regel (verkauft vor bedroht) zählt, dass KI zugleich Teil der Umsatzquelle ist.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Powered by this vision, Redwire is building the future of aerospace infrastructure, autonomous systems, and multi-domain operations, leveraging digital engineering and artificial intelligence (“AI”) automation."
Getragen von dieser Vision baut Redwire die Zukunft der Aerospace-Infrastruktur, autonomer Systeme und domänenübergreifender Operationen — gestützt auf Digital Engineering und Automatisierung mit Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).
„We have and in the future may continue to incorporate AI solutions into our core offerings, and these applications may become important in our operations over time."
Wir haben KI-Lösungen in unsere Kernangebote integriert und werden dies möglicherweise auch künftig tun; diese Anwendungen könnten im Laufe der Zeit für unseren Betrieb wichtig werden.
„AI is enabled by or integrated into some of our software and is a significant and potentially growing element of our business."
KI ist in Teilen unserer Software aktiviert oder in sie integriert und ist ein bedeutendes und potenziell wachsendes Element unseres Geschäfts.
„We design and deploy UAS technology through solutions including autonomous flight systems, artificial intelligence (“AI”) powered data processing, and specialized sensors."
Wir entwickeln und liefern UAS-Technologie über Lösungen, die autonome Flugsysteme, KI-gestützte Datenverarbeitung und spezialisierte Sensorik umfassen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-K 2026-02-27 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-12 · 10-K 2025-03-11
Rated on August 1, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 73.0% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 6
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.68 | -0.68 – -0.68 | 469 | 26.4% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.41 | -0.41 – -0.41 | 566 | 39.7% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.20 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -1.01 | – | 70 | 9.60 | -96.60 | 7 | 3 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.04 | – | 61 | -30.10 | -4.80 | -45 | -47 |
| 2025: Q2 | -1.08 | – | 62 | -20.90 | -157.00 | -88 | -91 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.40 | – | 103 | 50.70 | -39.80 | -20 | -28 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.50 | – | 109 | 56.40 | -78.60 | -24 | -30 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.40 | – | 97 | 57.90 | -78.90 | -8 | -12 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | -3 | -3 | -0.06 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 2020 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -12 | 39 | 157 |
| 2021 | 138 | -70 | -62 | -0.98 | -37 | 107 | 262 |
| 2022 | 161 | -146 | -131 | -2.03 | -32 | 70 | 258 |
| 2023 | 244 | -16 | -27 | -0.42 | 1 | 53 | 271 |
| 2024 | 304 | -42 | -114 | -1.73 | -17 | -52 | 293 |
| 2025 | 335 | -230 | -227 | -1.90 | -177 | 1,060 | 1,449 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Redwire's own management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was not effective as of December 31, 2025; auditor KPMG confirmed that with an "adverse opinion" — the harshest rating available. The newly acquired Edge Autonomy unit (10% of total assets, 32% of revenue) was excluded from this assessment entirely.
The share count rose from 66.5 million (08/04/2024) to 198,918,728 (05/01/2026) — nearly tripling. The third ATM program within eight months ($250 million → $350 million → $500 million) keeps running, with an untapped reservoir of convertible preferred stock and warrants on top.
Gross margin of 27 percent in Q1 2026 (prior-year quarter 15%), operating cash flow nearly break-even (−$6.7 million, prior-year quarter −$45.1 million), record backlog of $498.1 million at a book-to-bill of 1.92. A genuine operating step forward versus fiscal 2025.
$721.3 million of goodwill from the Edge acquisition (roughly 68% of equity) — already in the fourth quarter of 2025, two quarters after closing, a $34.7 million impairment followed. KPMG itself flags the purchase price allocation as a "Critical Audit Matter."
JPMorgan term loan cut to $50 million (prepayment 07/01/2026), effective interest rate reduced from 13.31 to 8.06 percent. Total equity flipped from −$188.7 million to +$1,087.5 million — driven overwhelmingly by new shares, not earnings.
The $226.6 million net loss (FY2025) includes $54.5 million of fixed-price contract rebookings; the $76.5 million Q1 2026 loss includes more than $44 million of one-time effects from accelerated stock vesting. Adjusted EBITDA remains negative even excluding those effects (−$9.2 million, Q1 2026).
Redwire Space, for the first time since the Edge Autonomy acquisition, shows a clearly identifiable operating turnaround: gross margin and operating cash flow improved noticeably in the first quarter of 2026, backlog hit a record $498.1 million, and the expensive JPMorgan loan was paid down to $50 million by July 1, 2026. Over the same window, though, the company admitted internal control over financial reporting was not effective (KPMG "adverse opinion," as of 12/31/2025), the share count nearly tripled since August 2024, and $721.3 million of goodwill from the Edge bet carries a concentration risk that has already triggered one impairment. Not investment advice.
- Redwire reached our research list via our in-house stock scanner, triggered by a contradiction between balance-sheet strength (equity ratio 73.15%, debt-to-equity 0.087) and middling overall quality (Piotroski 4 of 9, Altman Z-score 2.31 in the gray zone; data as of 07/31/2026) — on a stock that hit an all-time high of $26.64 in the spring 2026 SpaceX hype and had given back roughly two-thirds of it by 07/31/2026.
- Recency gate: the most recent periodic report evaluated is the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026, filed May 7, 2026. The second-quarter 2026 report was announced as of this analysis's data cutoff (08/01/2026) — for 08/05/2026 (call 08/06/2026) — but had not yet been filed; every statement about it is deliberately flagged as a dated outlook.
- Market-cap cross-check: share count of 198,918,728 (05/01/2026) times the most recent price documented in a mandatory filing, $9.74 (Form 4, 07/14/2026), yields roughly $1.94 billion; the feed market value of roughly $2.02 billion (07/31/2026) differs by roughly 4% — plausibly explained by further ATM sales and price movement, well below the threshold for an unreliable-data flag.
- Risk of confusion: Redwire Corporation (Redwire Space, NYSE: RDW) is an independent company with no tie to SpaceX; name and topical similarity caused confusion on forums during the spring 2026 SpaceX-IPO hype.
- The quality light rates the company, not the entry price: whether the stock is cheap or expensive at the current price ($8.62, 07/31/2026) is a question for the scanners and valuation metrics (price-to-sales roughly 5.5, price-to-book roughly 1.7), not this light.
About the Company
Redwire Corporation bietet kritische Weltraumlösungen und Weltrauminfrastruktur für staatliche und kommerzielle Kunden in den USA, Europa und international an. Es ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Space und Defense Tech.
| Employees | 1,400 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Jacksonville, FL |
| Address | 8226 Philips Highway, 32256 Jacksonville, United States |
| Phone | 650 701 7722 |
| Website | rdw.com |
| IPO Date | 2. Sep 2021 |
| ISIN | US75776W1036 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Anthony Cannito Jr. | President, CEO & Chairman | 1973 |
| Chris Edmunds | Chief Financial Officer | 1984 |
| Aaron Futch | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1973 |
| Austin Jordan | Executive VP of Strategic Communications & Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Michael Gold | President of Redwire Space | 1974 |
| Jeff Zeunik | Senior Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis | – |
| Allen G. Flynt | Senior Vice President of Space Platforms & Robotics | – |
| Alex Curatolo | Senior Director of Investor Relations | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14. Jul 2026 | Futch Aaron Michael | EVP, GC and Secretary | Other | 2,271 | 9.74 | 22,120 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Futch Aaron Michael | EVP, GC and Secretary | Other | 45,455 | 0.00 | – |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | Chairman and CEO | Other | 12,631 | 9.74 | 123,026 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | Chairman and CEO | Other | 190,637 | 0.00 | – |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Gold Michael N. | President, Space | Other | 3,777 | 9.74 | 36,788 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Gold Michael N. | President, Space | Other | 63,637 | 0.00 | – |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Edmunds Chris | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 1,160 | 9.74 | 11,298 |
| 14. Jul 2026 | Edmunds Chris | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 76,364 | 0.00 | – |
| 11. Jul 2026 | Futch Aaron Michael | EVP, GC and Secretary | Other | 1,834 | 10.18 | 18,670 |
| 11. Jul 2026 | Gold Michael N. | President, Space | Other | 11,457 | 10.18 | 116,632 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.