PROG Holdings Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The valuation is undemanding and the business earns money — but the decisive number is still outstanding. Whoever waits checks four lines in the next quarterly report (10-Q): the pre-tax result of the Purchasing Power segment (last: minus $7.5 million), its provision for credit losses ($12.96 million), Progressive Leasing new volume (last: $393.0 million for the quarter) and gross debt ($943.7 million). If the first two turn positive, the acquisition was well timed; if the third keeps falling, you are buying rebuild risk at book value. A 122 percent beat measures the estimate, not the company. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
PROG Holdings is not a momentum name in the usual sense but a solidly profitable lease-to-own business in the middle of a rebuild: the Progressive Leasing core carries 96 percent of revenue and is shrinking on every metric, while the buy now, pay later unit Four grows at triple-digit rates and Purchasing Power, bought for $424.2 million, still produced a $7.5 million pre-tax loss in the first quarter of 2026. The deal was paid for not in shares but in debt — gross debt climbed to $943.7 million and the leverage cap had to be raised. Buying here is not buying the 122 percent earnings surprise; it is betting that the acquisition turns its start-up loss faster than the core shrinks. Not investment advice.
Earnings power and valuation
$174.5 million of pre-tax earnings from continuing operations in 2025 and $335.0 million of operating cash flow against a market capitalization of roughly $1.75 billion — a price-earnings ratio around 11, price-sales around 0.7 and an equity ratio of 46 percent (10-K 2025; data as of July 24 and 25, 2026).
Growth at Four
New volume of $101.1 million, $301.6 million and $736.5 million from 2023 to 2025, plus $280.0 million in the first quarter of 2026, up 133.6 percent; 486,000 active customers as of December 31, 2025; the segment already earns $11.4 million before tax (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
Progressive Leasing core
96 percent of revenue is shrinking in volume, revenue and customer count at once: new volume down 8.6 percent to $1,760.8 million in 2025, active customers from 934,000 to 838,000 to 763,000 between December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2026; two retail partners each account for more than 10 percent of consolidated revenue (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
Purchasing Power acquisition
$424.2 million in cash for a business that produced a $7.5 million pre-tax loss on $107.1 million of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 — weighed down by $9.7 million of transaction costs, $8.1 million of amortization on acquired assets and a $12.96 million provision for credit losses (10-Q as of March 31, 2026, Notes 2 and 11).
Debt and covenants
Gross debt rose from $600.0 million to $943.7 million and cash fell from $308.8 million to $69.4 million between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026; the credit agreement leverage cap was lifted from 2.50x to 3.25x for 2026 on January 2, 2026; interest expense was $18.4 million against $10.0 million a year earlier (8-K dated January 2, 2026; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026, Note 7).
Regulation and customer quality
A write-off provision of 7.5 percent of lease revenues in 2025 sits in the upper third of the company's own 6 to 8 percent target range; permanent oversight by the FTC ($175 million settlement in 2020, renewed document request in 2024), by the states, and since December 2025 by seven attorneys general examining buy now, pay later (10-K 2025, Items 1 and 1A).
Worth Noting
PRG made the research list twice over: rank 32 of 81 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise scanner and rank 27 of 28 in the Richard Moglen 1-Week Top Performers scanner (U.S. selection, both as of July 25, 2026, relative strength 76). Both rankings are recomputed daily.
Valuation and scanner metrics use data as of July 24 and 25, 2026; balance sheet and segment figures come from the quarterly report as of March 31, 2026 and the 2025 annual report. The market capitalization was cross-checked: 40,065,564 shares (10-Q cover page, April 24, 2026) times the July 24, 2026 closing price of $43.71.
Do not confuse the names: PROG Holdings is not the furniture retailer Aaron's (NYSE: AAN), from which the holding company separated in October 2020, and not the biotechnology name Precigen (Nasdaq: PGEN). The ticker PRG trades on the New York Stock Exchange.
Vive Financial, a separate segment until October 20, 2025, was sold and is reported as a discontinued operation; every revenue and earnings series in this analysis therefore refers to continuing operations.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at PRG since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 26.20 $ to 47.50 $ · Last price: 35.70 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROG Holdings Inc PRG | 1.4 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 36.2 | 14.7 | -2.2 | 2.8 |
| United Rentals Inc URI | 62.8 | 25.7 | 10.3 | 38.5 | 23.1 | 4.9 | 8.6 |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. SUNB | 30.3 | 23.0 | 8.6 | 38.7 | 19.9 | 3.4 | – |
| AerCap Holdings NV AER | 22.5 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 62.8 | 57.5 | 2.4 | 19.6 |
| U-Haul Holding Company UHAL | 12.1 | 273.3 | 9.9 | 28.5 | – | 3.6 | 14.9 |
| U-Haul Holding Company UHAL-B | 11.0 | 403.7 | 10.2 | 28.5 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 8.1 |
| Ryder System Inc R | 9.2 | 19.5 | 5.3 | 19.8 | 7.1 | -0.2 | 31.7 |
| GATX Corporation GATX | 6.5 | 19.4 | 13.1 | 73.6 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| Herc Holdings Inc HRI | 4.8 | – | 7.7 | 31.9 | 9.4 | 22.7 | 10.8 |
| Median of companies shown | 11.0 | 21.2 | 9.9 | 36.2 | 17.5 | 3.6 | 9.7 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,208 | 243 | 139 | 1.91 | 465 | 1,482 | 2,616 |
| 2017 | 3,384 | 255 | 293 | 4.06 | 158 | 1,728 | 2,687 |
| 2018 | 3,829 | 290 | 196 | 2.78 | 357 | 1,761 | 2,827 |
| 2019 | 2,163 | 28 | 31 | 0.47 | 317 | 1,737 | 3,298 |
| 2020 | 2,485 | 272 | -61 | -0.91 | 456 | 986 | 1,317 |
| 2021 | 2,678 | 334 | 244 | 3.69 | 246 | 679 | 1,622 |
| 2022 | 2,598 | 186 | 99 | 1.90 | 242 | 570 | 1,492 |
| 2023 | 2,408 | 226 | 139 | 2.98 | 204 | 591 | 1,491 |
| 2024 | 2,464 | 195 | 197 | 4.53 | 139 | 650 | 1,514 |
| 2025 | 2,409 | 238 | 147 | 3.59 | 335 | 746 | 1,610 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 592 | -0.10 | 5.70 | 55 | 54 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.77 | -14.40 | 606 | 4.00 | 13.90 | 32 | 30 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.80 | 11.10 | 623 | 8.00 | 9.20 | -85 | -87 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.90 | -1.10 | 684 | 6.60 | 5.10 | 210 | 208 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.02 | 10.90 | 605 | 2.10 | 6.40 | 70 | 68 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.90 | 16.90 | 595 | -1.80 | 5.60 | 110 | 107 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.74 | -7.50 | 575 | -7.80 | 7.00 | -55 | -58 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.89 | -1.10 | 743 | 8.60 | 4.90 | 172 | 169 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.91 | -10.80 | 720 | 19.00 | 5.10 | 106 | 101 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 19 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Aktien.Guide
Breakout & Setup
Dividends
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Oliver Kell: Strength on Down Day
- Power Trend
- Richard Moglen: 1 Week Top Performers
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.94 | 4.86 – 5.07 | 3,059 | 40.7% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 5.64 | 5.20 – 6.27 | 3,308 | 14.2% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -4.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $172.4M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.43B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $108.6M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 40.0% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 3.7% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
PROG Holdings verkauft keine KI, setzt sie aber operativ ein: Die BNPL-Tochter Four entscheidet Kreditanfragen mit maschinellem Lernen, und der Konzern investiert nach eigener Angabe in generative KI-Werkzeuge für interne Prozesse und Produktentwicklung.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are also investing in artificial intelligence (“AI”) solutions, including generative AI tools that collect and analyze data to assist in the development of our products and services and in the use of internal tools that support our businesses. These applications have and likely will continue to become increasingly important in our operations over time."
Wir investieren außerdem in Lösungen der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“), darunter generative KI-Werkzeuge, die Daten sammeln und auswerten, um die Entwicklung unserer Produkte und Dienstleistungen sowie den Einsatz interner Werkzeuge zur Unterstützung unserer Geschäfte zu begleiten. Diese Anwendungen sind für unseren Betrieb bereits wichtiger geworden und dürften es im Zeitverlauf weiter werden.
10-K · 2026-02-18 · View SEC filing
„Leveraging data science, automation, and machine learning, Four delivers efficient underwriting and consistent credit outcomes while supporting purchases across a diverse range of merchants and product categories."
Mit Datenwissenschaft, Automatisierung und maschinellem Lernen liefert Four eine effiziente Kreditprüfung und gleichmäßige Kreditergebnisse und unterstützt zugleich Käufe bei einer breiten Auswahl von Händlern und Produktkategorien.
10-Q · 2026-04-29 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 10-Q 2025-10-22 · 10-Q 2025-07-23 · 10-Q 2025-04-23 · 10-K 2025-02-19
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -2.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -69.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -7.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 11.3%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 33.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 18.4%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.2 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 195 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 15.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
7/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -3.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 17.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -0.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 25.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 1.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 90.5%
- Return on equity > 15% 37.4%
- ROCE > 15% 15.7%
- Expected return > 10% 53.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sewell George M | CAO, SVP Fin Rep | Sell | 2,000 | 45.53 | 91,060 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | King Michael Todd | Chief Legal and Compliance Off | Sell | 1,070 | 46.00 | 49,220 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | King Michael Todd | Chief Legal and Compliance Off | Sell | 930 | 46.00 | 42,780 |
The company
About the Company
PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.
- Employees
- 1,235
- Headquarters
- Draper, UT
- Address
- 256 West Data Drive, 84020-2315 Draper, United States
- Phone
- 385 351 1369
- Website
- progholdings.com
- IPO Date
- 09/07/1984
- ISIN
- US74319R1014
- Stock Split
- 1179:1000 on 12/01/2020
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 04/16/2010
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 08/17/2004
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Steven A. Michaels | CEO, President & Chairman | 1972 |
| Brian J. Garner | Chief Financial Officer | 1981 |
| Todd King | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Curtis L. Doman | Co-Founder & Director | 1973 |
| Trevor Thatcher | Chief Operations Officer | 1976 |
| George Matt Sewell | Senior VP of Financial Reporting & Principal Accounting Officer | 1976 |
| Sridhar Nallani | Chief Technology Officer | 1971 |
| John Allen Baugh C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | 1961 |
| Mark Delcorps | Director of Corporate Communications | – |
| Debra A. Fiori | Chief People Officer | 1971 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.