PROG Holdings Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The business earns money, the balance sheet holds up, the covenants are being met and the valuation is modest — but a material operating question is open: the core business grows only through acquisition, the acquisition has just one profitable quarter and needs a strong holiday quarter, and credit losses sit above the company’s own target band. Management has reliably kept commitments it controls itself (debt, dividend) and cut commitments that depend on customers (volume, outlook) twice. For a green quality rating, evidence is missing that the core business grows again and that losses stay within the range; for red, there is no substantive finding. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
PROG Holdings is a solidly earning, modestly valued lease-to-own business whose growth is bought: revenue rose 25.6 percent in the third quarter of 2026, about 2.8 percent without the Purchasing Power acquisition, and the Progressive Leasing core earned 12.7 percent less. The credit-loss provision has tripled, the outlook was cut, and in October management backed away from the six part of the write-off range. The adjusted earnings figure is not inflated by special gains, but it leaves out the amortization of the acquisition. Whoever buys here buys the bet that the acquisition delivers in the holiday quarter and that pressure on consumers does not increase further. Not investment advice.
Earnings power & valuation
$52.3 million of pre-tax income in the third quarter of 2026 (prior year 44.7), $386.2 million of operating cash flow in nine months against a market capitalization of about $1.2 billion — price-earnings ratio about 8 (midpoint of the GAAP earnings outlook), price-to-book ratio 1.5 (10-Q as of 09/30/2026; price 10/28/2026).
Growth at Four
New volume in the third quarter of 2026 $330.4 million (+102.6 percent), pre-tax income $10.0 million after $1.3 million; the only segment with a raised outlook (pre-tax income $28–30 instead of $22–25 million; 8-K of 10/28/2026).
Progressive Leasing core business
Three quarters of revenue: new volume +2.3 percent, revenue −0.7 percent, pre-tax income −12.7 percent ($40.8 million after $46.7 million); segment forecast cut by $10–14 million; approval rate almost 300 basis points below the prior year (8-K and earnings call of 10/28/2026).
Purchasing Power acquisition
First quarterly profit ($3.0 million before tax on $131.8 million of revenue), but minus $4.8 million over nine months; the full-year target of $14.0–18.5 million requires $18.8–23.3 million in the fourth quarter; revenue outlook cut since July 2026 from $620–640 to $605–615 million (10-Q and 8-K of 10/28/2026).
Credit losses & earnings quality
Provision for credit losses $30.5 million after $10.0 million in the quarter; leasing write-off rate 8.3 percent (second quarter in a row above the upper limit of 8); adjusted earnings per share $3.50 versus $2.73 reported — $0.69 of the gap is acquisition amortization, not special gains (10-Q and 8-K of 10/28/2026).
Balance sheet & capital return
Gross debt $943.7 → $872.0 million, net leverage ratio 1.5, covenants met; at the same time cash of $108.9 million, goodwill and intangibles at 93 percent of equity and a $100 million buyback that is also meant to be paid from the credit facility (10-Q as of 09/30/2026).
Worth Noting
The occasion for this edition is the quarterly report as of September 30, 2026 (filed 10/28/2026, with the earnings release in the current report 8-K Item 2.02 the same day); it replaces the first edition based on the report as of 03/31/2026. The earnings calls from February 2022 to October 2026 were also evaluated.
Data cut-off: price $30.88 (close 10/28/2026), share count 38,996,676 (10-Q cover page, 10/23/2026) — market capitalization $1.204 billion, cross-checked against the fundamental data ($1.23 billion). Valuation ratios and analyst votes: as of 10/29/2026.
Our own calculations (not reported in the filings): revenue growth without Purchasing Power (+2.8 percent), share of past-due customer receivables for federal employees and all other customers (17.3 and 12.2 percent), the fourth-quarter target for Purchasing Power ($18.8–23.3 million of pre-tax income) and equity without goodwill and intangible assets.
Risk of confusion: PROG Holdings is not the furniture retailer Aaron's (formerly NYSE: AAN), from which the holding company was spun off on November 30, 2020, and not the biotech stock Precigen (Nasdaq: PGEN). The ticker PRG trades on the New York Stock Exchange.
Vive Financial, a segment of its own until October 20, 2025, was sold and is reported as a discontinued operation; all revenue and earnings series in this analysis therefore refer to continuing operations.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 29, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at PRG since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 26.20 $ to 47.50 $ · Last price: 34.80 $ (As of: October 30, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/30/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROG Holdings Inc PRG | 1.4 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 36.2 | 14.7 | -2.2 | 13.3 |
| United Rentals Inc URI | 73.3 | 29.3 | 10.8 | 39.2 | 23.1 | 4.9 | 37.3 |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. SUNB | 34.3 | 26.0 | 9.8 | 38.8 | 19.9 | 3.4 | – |
| AerCap Holdings NV AER | 24.9 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 63.0 | 57.5 | 2.4 | 22.6 |
| Ryder System Inc R | 10.9 | 22.7 | 5.6 | 19.6 | 7.1 | -0.2 | 67.3 |
| U-Haul Holding Company UHAL | 10.9 | 247.4 | 9.1 | 28.5 | – | 3.6 | 6.4 |
| U-Haul Holding Company UHAL-B | 9.9 | 362.3 | 9.2 | 28.5 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| GATX Corporation GATX | 6.5 | 19.1 | 12.8 | 73.6 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 15.6 |
| Herc Holdings Inc HRI | 5.7 | – | 7.5 | 32.7 | 9.4 | 22.7 | 25.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 10.9 | 24.4 | 9.2 | 36.2 | 17.5 | 3.6 | 19.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,208 | 243 | 139 | 1.91 | 465 | 1,482 | 2,616 |
| 2017 | 3,384 | 255 | 293 | 4.06 | 158 | 1,728 | 2,687 |
| 2018 | 3,829 | 290 | 196 | 2.78 | 357 | 1,761 | 2,827 |
| 2019 | 2,163 | 28 | 31 | 0.47 | 317 | 1,737 | 3,298 |
| 2020 | 2,485 | 272 | -61 | -0.91 | 456 | 986 | 1,317 |
| 2021 | 2,678 | 334 | 244 | 3.69 | 246 | 679 | 1,622 |
| 2022 | 2,598 | 186 | 99 | 1.90 | 242 | 570 | 1,492 |
| 2023 | 2,408 | 226 | 139 | 2.98 | 204 | 591 | 1,491 |
| 2024 | 2,464 | 195 | 197 | 4.53 | 139 | 650 | 1,514 |
| 2025 | 2,409 | 238 | 147 | 3.59 | 335 | 746 | 1,610 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 592 | -0.10 | 5.70 | 55 | 54 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.77 | -14.40 | 606 | 4.00 | 13.90 | 32 | 30 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.80 | 11.10 | 623 | 8.00 | 9.20 | -85 | -87 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.90 | -1.10 | 684 | 6.60 | 5.10 | 210 | 208 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.02 | 10.90 | 605 | 2.10 | 6.40 | 70 | 68 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.90 | 16.90 | 595 | -1.80 | 5.60 | 110 | 107 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.74 | -7.50 | 575 | -7.80 | 7.00 | -55 | -58 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.89 | -1.10 | 743 | 8.60 | 4.90 | 172 | 169 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.91 | -10.80 | 720 | 19.00 | 5.10 | 106 | 101 |
| 2026: Q3 | 0.91 | 1.10 | 726 | 22.00 | 5.10 | 108 | 103 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 19 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Aktien.Guide
Breakout & Setup
Dividends
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Oliver Kell: Strength on Down Day
- Power Trend
- Richard Moglen: 1 Week Top Performers
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.91 | 4.86 – 4.97 | 3,060 | 40.0% | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 5.55 | 5.20 – 5.84 | 3,295 | 12.9% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -4.9% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $172.4M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.40B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $104.5M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 39.5% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 3.7% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
PROG Holdings verkauft keine KI, setzt sie aber operativ ein: Die BNPL-Tochter Four entscheidet Kreditanfragen mit maschinellem Lernen, und der Konzern investiert nach eigener Angabe in generative KI-Werkzeuge für interne Prozesse und Produktentwicklung.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are also investing in artificial intelligence (“AI”) solutions, including generative AI tools that collect and analyze data to assist in the development of our products and services and in the use of internal tools that support our businesses. These applications have and likely will continue to become increasingly important in our operations over time."
Wir investieren außerdem in Lösungen der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“), darunter generative KI-Werkzeuge, die Daten sammeln und auswerten, um die Entwicklung unserer Produkte und Dienstleistungen sowie den Einsatz interner Werkzeuge zur Unterstützung unserer Geschäfte zu begleiten. Diese Anwendungen sind für unseren Betrieb bereits wichtiger geworden und dürften es im Zeitverlauf weiter werden.
10-K · 2026-02-18 · View SEC filing
„Leveraging data science, automation, and machine learning, Four delivers efficient underwriting and consistent credit outcomes while supporting purchases across a diverse range of merchants and product categories."
Mit Datenwissenschaft, Automatisierung und maschinellem Lernen liefert Four eine effiziente Kreditprüfung und gleichmäßige Kreditergebnisse und unterstützt zugleich Käufe bei einer breiten Auswahl von Händlern und Produktkategorien.
10-Q · 2026-04-29 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 10-Q 2025-10-22 · 10-Q 2025-07-23 · 10-Q 2025-04-23 · 10-K 2025-02-19
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -2.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -69.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -7.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 11.3%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 33.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 18.4%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 0.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 195 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 15.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 4.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
7/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -3.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 16.9%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -0.2%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 24.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 1.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 90.5%
- Return on equity > 15% 37.4%
- ROCE > 15% 15.7%
- Expected return > 10% 53.2%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sewell George M | CAO, SVP Fin Rep | Sell | 2,000 | 45.53 | 91,060 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | King Michael Todd | Chief Legal and Compliance Off | Sell | 1,070 | 46.00 | 49,220 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | King Michael Todd | Chief Legal and Compliance Off | Sell | 930 | 46.00 | 42,780 |
The company
About the Company
PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.
- Employees
- 1,235
- Headquarters
- Draper, UT
- Address
- 256 West Data Drive, 84020-2315 Draper, United States
- Phone
- 385 351 1369
- Website
- progholdings.com
- IPO Date
- 09/07/1984
- ISIN
- US74319R1014
- Stock Split
- 1179:1000 on 12/01/2020
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 04/16/2010
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 08/17/2004
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Steven A. Michaels | CEO, President & Chairman | 1972 |
| Brian J. Garner | Chief Financial Officer | 1981 |
| Todd King | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Curtis L. Doman | Co-Founder & Director | 1973 |
| Trevor Thatcher | Chief Operations Officer | 1976 |
| George Matt Sewell | Senior VP of Financial Reporting & Principal Accounting Officer | 1976 |
| Sridhar Nallani | Chief Technology Officer | 1971 |
| John Allen Baugh C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | 1961 |
| Mark Delcorps | Director of Corporate Communications | – |
| Debra A. Fiori | Chief People Officer | 1971 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 10/28/2026 PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/05/2026 PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/29/2026 PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: October 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.