HF Sinclair Corp
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today is betting that we stand closer to the bottom than the top of the refining cycle — and gets a broadly diversified company with a stable Midstream anchor, a solid balance sheet and a $2.00 dividend, but a loss-making renewables segment and a margin it does not control. Whoever waits may miss the next margin wave but can check the quarterly report (10-Q) for whether refining margins hold and whether buybacks pick up again — both would be evidence the recovery has substance. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
HF Sinclair is a soundly run, broadly diversified U.S. refiner with a quiet pipeline anchor (Midstream $363 million of operating income in 2025) and an honest balance sheet — but its profit is a refining margin that belongs to no one and swung from $14.28 through $0.91 to $3.08 per share (2022–2025). The green Renewables segment posts a negative gross margin every year, and a price-to-earnings ratio around 10 is ambiguous on a cyclical: a bargain at the bottom, a trap at the top. Whoever invests here buys not plannable earning power but a point on a sine wave. Not investment advice.
Earning power & cash
A cash machine in good years: $2.9 billion of net income in 2022, $1.3 billion of operating cash flow even in the mediocre year 2025, Q1 2026 already above the entire prior year at $3.56 per share (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Cyclicality & margin dependence
The profit is a margin that belongs to no one: EPS from $14.28 through $0.91 to $3.08 (2022–2025), Refining operating income in a $167 million loss in 2024. A low P/E is often a warning sign here, not evidence of a bargain (10-K FY 2025, Item 1A).
Renewables segment
The green business of the future burns cash: a negative gross margin in fiscal years 2023, 2024 and 2025 (down to minus $129 million), a $133 million operating loss in 2025 — and the supporting funding programs are being curtailed by the OBBBA law, per the 10-K.
Diversification & balance sheet
Quiet anchors against the refining cycle: Midstream (pipelines) earned a steady $363 million of operating income in 2025, plus profitable lubricants and the growing Sinclair brand; a solid balance sheet with $978 million in cash, roughly $3.0 billion of liquidity and $9.2 billion of equity (12/31/2025).
Valuation & capital returns
Optically cheap on revenue (P/S ~0.4) and book value (P/B ~1.3), dividend stable at $2.00 per share since 2024 — but buybacks shrank with the profit from $1.37 billion (2022) to $354 million (2025); the "cheap plus buyback" story carries least in the low-margin year (data as of July 17, 2026).
Worth Noting
DINO reached our research list via the "Joshua" growth scanner (as of July 17, 2026); the confluence with eleven more scanners — including several value filters (Tobias Carlisle, O'Shaughnessy) and trend filters (Stan Weinstein stage 2) — is typical for a cyclical at the turn and is not double proof, but the same one twice.
Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, P/B) are computed from trailing or expected figures; on a cyclical the reported P/E depends massively on which year sits in the denominator — which is why the order of magnitude matters more than the decimal place.
Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (market value roughly $11 billion); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. HF Sinclair's fiscal year ends December 31; identity and history (merger 03/14/2022, no former names) verified via EDGAR submissions.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at DINO since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 45.90 $ to 116.60 $ · Last price: 116.60 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HF Sinclair Corp DINO | 21.0 | 17.5 | 5.6 | 12.9 | 11.9 | -6.0 | 128.8 |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC | 122.6 | 27.8 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 3.6 | -4.4 | 132.3 |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | 122.5 | 30.2 | 8.5 | 16.1 | 6.1 | -5.5 | 157.4 |
| Phillips 66 PSX | 109.9 | 27.3 | 9.3 | 13.1 | 0.6 | -7.6 | 112.1 |
| Sunoco LP SUN | 14.9 | 17.1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 11.1 | 67.7 |
| PBF Energy Inc PBF | 9.1 | – | 3.9 | 5.0 | -1.3 | -11.4 | 159.6 |
| CVR Energy Inc CVI | 5.6 | – | 8.0 | 10.9 | – | -5.9 | 67.1 |
| Delek US Holdings, Inc. DK | 5.2 | – | 6.8 | 10.5 | -6.7 | -9.5 | 167.6 |
| Icahn Enterprises LP IEP | 5.0 | – | 13.2 | 7.1 | -8.7 | -7.5 | 9.8 |
| Median of companies shown | 14.9 | 27.3 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 2.1 | -6.0 | 128.8 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,536 | -103 | -260 | -1.48 | 602 | 5,302 | 9,436 |
| 2017 | 14,251 | 904 | 805 | 4.55 | 951 | 5,897 | 10,692 |
| 2018 | 17,715 | 1,624 | 1,098 | 6.22 | 1,554 | 6,459 | 10,995 |
| 2019 | 17,487 | 1,277 | 772 | 4.61 | 1,549 | 5,978 | 12,165 |
| 2020 | 11,184 | -734 | -601 | -3.71 | 458 | 5,168 | 11,507 |
| 2021 | 18,389 | 749 | 558 | 3.43 | 407 | 5,688 | 12,917 |
| 2022 | 38,205 | 4,054 | 2,923 | 14.43 | 3,777 | 9,244 | 18,352 |
| 2023 | 31,964 | 2,203 | 1,590 | 8.37 | 2,297 | 10,169 | 17,716 |
| 2024 | 28,580 | 261 | 177 | 0.92 | 1,110 | 9,278 | 16,643 |
| 2025 | 26,869 | 936 | 579 | 3.11 | 1,315 | 9,184 | 16,729 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -1.11 | – | 6,500 | -15.10 | -3.30 | -140 | -314 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.02 | -101.30 | 6,370 | -9.40 | -0.10 | -89 | -175 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.10 | 39.40 | 6,784 | -13.50 | 3.10 | 587 | 476 |
| 2025: Q3 | 2.16 | – | 7,251 | 0.60 | 5.60 | 809 | 930 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.15 | – | 6,464 | -0.60 | -0.40 | 8 | -587 |
| 2026: Q1 | 3.59 | – | 7,123 | 11.80 | 9.10 | 457 | 355 |
| 2026: Q2 | 4.93 | 348.20 | 10,390 | 53.20 | 8.60 | 1,510 | 1,392 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Earnings & Surprises
Momentum & Trend
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 15.98 | 10.75 – 21.15 | 34,391 | 215.8% | 15 |
| 12/31/2027 | 11.82 | 6.56 – 20.93 | 31,200 | -26.0% | 15 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -4.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $2.55B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $21.03B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $1.59B |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 39.8% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 46.6% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
HF Sinclair ist ein Erdölraffineriekonzern (Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, Midstream). In den ausgewerteten SEC-Berichten findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug: keine KI-Produkte oder -Dienste als Umsatzquelle, kein dokumentierter operativer KI-Einsatz und keine konkrete KI-Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells. Die einzige KI-Erwähnung im 10-K für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 ist eine Boilerplate-Cybersecurity-Risikofloskel („Emerging artificial intelligence … technologies may improve or expand the capabilities of malicious third parties …“) ohne konkreten Bezug zum eigenen Geschäftsmodell — nach Kriterienkatalog kein „bedroht“-Beleg. Dokumentierter Negativ-Befund → neutral.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Emerging artificial intelligence (“AI”) technologies may improve or expand the capabilities of malicious third parties in a way we cannot predict at this time…"
Aufkommende Technologien der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“) könnten die Fähigkeiten böswilliger Dritter auf eine Weise verbessern oder erweitern, die wir derzeit nicht vorhersehen können …
10-K · 2026-02-27 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-07-31 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2026-02-27 · 10-K 2025-02-20
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -11.1%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -8.4%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -2.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -2.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 5.2%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 17.8%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1.2 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 2,377 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 6.6%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 6.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 11.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 7.8%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 95.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 2.4x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 8
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 9.8%
- ROCE > 15% 6.6%
- Expected return > 10% 103.2%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Myers Franklin | CEO | Other | 1,121 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Myers Franklin | CEO | Buy | 15,000 | 85.30 | 1,279,500 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Kunneman Dale | SVP and CHRO | Sell | 8,936 | 84.59 | 755,852 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | REH Advisors Inc. | Director | Other | 2,375,000 | 89.41 | 212,348,750 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Myers Franklin | CEO | Other | 1,210 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
HF Sinclair Corporation ist ein unabhängiges Energieunternehmen in den USA. Es ist in fünf Segmenten tätig: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties und Midstream.
- Employees
- 5,165
- Headquarters
- Dallas, TX
- Address
- 2323 Victory Avenue, 75219 Dallas, United States
- Phone
- 214 871 3555
- Website
- hfsinclair.com
- IPO Date
- 03/17/1992
- ISIN
- US4039491000
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 09/01/2011
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 06/02/2006
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 08/31/2004
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Franklin Myers J.D. | CEO & Chairman of the Board | 1953 |
| Steven C. Ledbetter | President & COO | 1976 |
| Valerie Pompa | President of Growth, Technology & Transformation | 1969 |
| Vivek Garg | Acting CFO, Chief Accounting Officer, VP & Controller | 1975 |
| Craig Biery | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Dale Kunneman | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | – |
| Jerry P. Miller | Senior Vice President of Commercial | – |
| Matthew Joyce | Senior Vice President of Lubricants & Specialties | – |
| John Wayne Harrison Jr. | VP of Finance & Strategy and Treasurer | 1979 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/26/2026 HF Sinclair Corp (DINO): Other Events SEC ↗
- 08/04/2026 HF Sinclair Corp (DINO): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/28/2026 HF Sinclair Corp (DINO): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 07/28/2026 HF Sinclair Corp (DINO): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/08/2026 HF Sinclair Corp (DINO): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.