Geo Group Inc (GEO)
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symbol.quality_heading
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Whoever buys today is betting that the OBBBA money flows for years and ICE fills the beds — and gets a moderate P/E around 15, falling debt and strong technicals for it. Whoever waits or avoids takes the political concentration risk seriously: nearly half of revenue hangs on one agency whose order volume is up for a vote with every change of administration, the business model is ethically contested and narrowed by ESG exclusions. Evidence for the bull case would be renewed ICE contracts and further falling debt; warning signs would be expiring contracts (roughly 10 percent of revenue by the end of 2026) or a political reversal. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
The GEO Group runs private prisons and immigration-detention centers for the U.S. government — and lights up our in-house Joshua growth scanner (rank 9 of 75, as of July 17, 2026) after a 80 percent share-price gain in six months. We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: net income that jumped from $32 million to $254 million, fueled by the immigration agency ICE, which alone supplies 47.6 percent of revenue — and a $42 billion pile of debt for which the company gave up its REIT status and dividend in 2021. Not investment advice — just the question of what a business is worth when half its revenue hangs on one agency and the policy of one administration.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 17, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at GEO since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 21 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 30.90 $ — 98% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (eingereicht 25.02.2026), den 10-K für 2024 (28.02.2025) und den Quartalsbericht (10-Q) zum 31.03.2026. The GEO Group betreibt private Haft- und Einwanderungshafteinrichtungen sowie elektronische Überwachung im Auftrag von US-Regierungsbehörden. In den ausgewerteten Filings findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug im Sinne des Kriterienkatalogs: KI ist weder Umsatzquelle („verkauft“) noch ein konkret beschriebener operativer Kernprozess mit Effizienz- oder Produktwirkung („nutzt“). „Artificial intelligence“ erscheint im 10-K 2025 ausschließlich als konditionale Compliance- und Rechtsrisiko-Erwägung rund um den etwaigen eigenen Einsatz von KI-/ML-Werkzeugen (Datenschutz, Biometrie, Einstellungspraxis, Cybersicherheit) — „Our current or future use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools […] could expose us to new or additional costs and risks“. Das ist Boilerplate-Risikosprache mit „could“/„current or future use“ und kein konkreter Bezug zum eigenen Geschäftsmodell (private Haft/Überwachung) und damit nach der Vorrang-Regel kein „bedroht“-Beleg. Es bleibt bei „neutral“ — dokumentierter Negativ-Befund.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our current or future use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools in our business operations could expose us to new or additional costs and risks, including the potential introduction of new vulnerabilities or cybersecurity risks within our information technology systems."
Unser gegenwärtiger oder künftiger Einsatz von Werkzeugen der Künstlichen Intelligenz oder des maschinellen Lernens in unserem Geschäftsbetrieb könnte uns neuen oder zusätzlichen Kosten und Risiken aussetzen, einschließlich der möglichen Entstehung neuer Schwachstellen oder Cybersicherheitsrisiken in unseren IT-Systemen.
„We are also subject to increasing legal requirements with respect to the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning applications and tools (including in relation to hiring and employment practices) and biometric information."
Wir unterliegen zudem zunehmenden rechtlichen Anforderungen in Bezug auf den Einsatz von Anwendungen und Werkzeugen der Künstlichen Intelligenz und des maschinellen Lernens (unter anderem im Zusammenhang mit Einstellungs- und Beschäftigungspraktiken) sowie auf biometrische Daten.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-28 · 10-Q 2026-05-07
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 9.2% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 4
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.22 | 1.18 – 1.27 | 2,984 | 41.9% | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1.66 | 1.46 – 2.04 | 3,242 | 36.3% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.28 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.11 | -44.90 | 608 | -0.10 | 2.50 | 19 | -2 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.14 | -19.80 | 605 | -0.20 | 3.20 | 71 | 41 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.21 | – | 636 | 4.80 | 4.60 | 39 | 2 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.24 | 552.10 | 682 | 13.10 | 25.50 | 80 | -14 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.23 | 108.30 | 708 | 16.50 | 4.50 | -117 | -154 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.29 | 106.00 | 705 | 16.60 | 5.40 | 157 | 135 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,179 | 266 | 149 | 1.33 | -28 | 975 | 3,749 |
| 2017 | 2,263 | 248 | 146 | 1.21 | 381 | 1,199 | 4,227 |
| 2018 | 2,331 | 265 | 145 | 1.20 | 274 | 1,040 | 4,247 |
| 2019 | 2,478 | 303 | 167 | 1.40 | 338 | 997 | 4,318 |
| 2020 | 2,350 | 229 | 113 | 0.94 | 442 | 913 | 4,460 |
| 2021 | 2,257 | 288 | 77 | 0.64 | 283 | 976 | 4,537 |
| 2022 | 2,377 | 384 | 172 | 1.41 | 296 | 1,166 | 3,760 |
| 2023 | 2,413 | 352 | 107 | 0.87 | 285 | 1,292 | 3,696 |
| 2024 | 2,424 | 310 | 32 | 0.24 | 242 | 1,335 | 3,632 |
| 2025 | 2,632 | 257 | 254 | 1.82 | 73 | 1,506 | 3,844 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Revenue up 8.6 percent to $2.63 billion in 2025, net income jumped from $32.0 to $254.4 million (diluted EPS $1.82 after $0.22), latest quarterly revenue up 16.6 percent year over year — the strongest momentum in years, carried by expanded ICE detention demand (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
ICE alone supplied 47.6 percent of 2025 revenue (2024: 41.5%), three federal agencies 66.6 percent combined — and rising. The 2021 Biden order (no renewal of DOJ detention contracts) shows a change of administration can flip the business foundation; roughly 10 percent of revenue hangs on contracts expiring by the end of 2026 (10-K 2025, Item 1A).
$1.67 billion of debt against $69 million in cash (12/31/2025), but the reduction is working: interest expense fell from $218 million (2023) via $191 million to $161 million (2025), alongside buybacks. The price for it was giving up the REIT status and the dividend in 2021; there is no distribution for the foreseeable future.
Several banks no longer finance GEO and have even discontinued equity research coverage (10-K 2025, Item 1A) — costlier capital, a narrower investor base, only a handful of analysts. Operating detention and immigration-detention facilities remains a permanent target of lawsuits and campaigns.
P/E around 15, P/S 1.4, P/B 2.6, return on equity 19.3 percent (data as of July 17, 2026) meet a Joshua growth hit (rank 9 of 75), a best-of-all score of 18 and plus 80 percent share price in six months. The moderate valuation is not a safety net but the priced-in expression of the political risk.
The GEO Group is delivering the strongest numbers in years — revenue up 8.6 percent to $2.63 billion, net income from $32 to $254 million, falling interest expense, ongoing buybacks. Yet nearly half of revenue (ICE: 47.6 percent) and two thirds in total hang on three federal agencies, the earnings jump rests on the OBBBA windfall and the immigration severity of a single administration, and the capital market shuns the model via ESG exclusion. Whoever invests here buys a leveraged, moderately valued bet on a political will — with a counterexample only one term in the past. Not investment advice.
- GEO reached our research list via the Joshua growth scanner (rank 9 of 75, best-of-all score 18, data as of July 17, 2026); the trend confluence (stage 2, power trend, quality growth, "pros 80%", institutional accumulation) is real, but it measures the move and the balance sheet — not the political risk.
- The 2025 earnings jump is partly a base effect: 2024 was depressed by an $86.6 million loss on extinguishment of debt (2025: $8.4 million). Adjusted, the direction is still clearly upward, carried by ICE detention demand.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (price around $28, market value roughly $3.8 billion); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. All revenue, income and balance-sheet figures come from the SEC filings or the XBRL financial data (data.sec.gov).
About the Company
The GEO Group, Inc. ist ein führender diversifizierter Anbieter staatlicher Dienstleistungen, spezialisiert auf Planung, Finanzierung, Entwicklung und Unterstützungsdienste für gesicherte Einrichtungen, Bearbeitungszentren und Wiedereingliederungszentren in den USA, Australien, Südafrika und dem Vereinigten Königreich.
| Employees | 20,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Boca Raton, FL |
| Address | 4955 Technology Way, 33431 Boca Raton, United States |
| Phone | 561 893 0101 |
| Website | geogroup.com |
| IPO Date | 26. Jul 1994 |
| ISIN | US36162J1060 |
| Stock Split | 3:2 on 04/25/2017 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| George C. Zoley Ph.D. | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1950 |
| Joe Negron J.D. | Consultant | 1962 |
| Paul Laird | Senior Vice President of Secure Services | 1966 |
| Shayn P. March | Senior VP & CFO | 1966 |
| Ronald A. Brack | Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 1962 |
| Jose Rosario | Executive VP, Chief Information Officer & Chief Information Security Officer | – |
| Scott A. Schipma | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Nicole Mannarino | Chief Compliance Officer & Controller of Financial Reporting | 1970 |
| Christopher D. Ryan | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | 1963 |
| Wayne H. Calabrese | Consultant | 1951 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.