Geo Group Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today is betting that the OBBBA money flows for years and ICE fills the beds — and gets a moderate P/E around 15, falling debt and strong technicals for it. Whoever waits or avoids takes the political concentration risk seriously: nearly half of revenue hangs on one agency whose order volume is up for a vote with every change of administration, the business model is ethically contested and narrowed by ESG exclusions. Evidence for the bull case would be renewed ICE contracts and further falling debt; warning signs would be expiring contracts (roughly 10 percent of revenue by the end of 2026) or a political reversal. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The GEO Group is delivering the strongest numbers in years — revenue up 8.6 percent to $2.63 billion, net income from $32 to $254 million, falling interest expense, ongoing buybacks. Yet nearly half of revenue (ICE: 47.6 percent) and two thirds in total hang on three federal agencies, the earnings jump rests on the OBBBA windfall and the immigration severity of a single administration, and the capital market shuns the model via ESG exclusion. Whoever invests here buys a leveraged, moderately valued bet on a political will — with a counterexample only one term in the past. Not investment advice.
Growth & earnings
Revenue up 8.6 percent to $2.63 billion in 2025, net income jumped from $32.0 to $254.4 million (diluted EPS $1.82 after $0.22), latest quarterly revenue up 16.6 percent year over year — the strongest momentum in years, carried by expanded ICE detention demand (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Customer concentration & politics
ICE alone supplied 47.6 percent of 2025 revenue (2024: 41.5%), three federal agencies 66.6 percent combined — and rising. The 2021 Biden order (no renewal of DOJ detention contracts) shows a change of administration can flip the business foundation; roughly 10 percent of revenue hangs on contracts expiring by the end of 2026 (10-K 2025, Item 1A).
Balance sheet & debt
$1.67 billion of debt against $69 million in cash (12/31/2025), but the reduction is working: interest expense fell from $218 million (2023) via $191 million to $161 million (2025), alongside buybacks. The price for it was giving up the REIT status and the dividend in 2021; there is no distribution for the foreseeable future.
Capital markets & ESG
Several banks no longer finance GEO and have even discontinued equity research coverage (10-K 2025, Item 1A) — costlier capital, a narrower investor base, only a handful of analysts. Operating detention and immigration-detention facilities remains a permanent target of lawsuits and campaigns.
Valuation & technicals
P/E around 15, P/S 1.4, P/B 2.6, return on equity 19.3 percent (data as of July 17, 2026) meet a Joshua growth hit (rank 9 of 75), a best-of-all score of 18 and plus 80 percent share price in six months. The moderate valuation is not a safety net but the priced-in expression of the political risk.
Worth Noting
GEO reached our research list via the Joshua growth scanner (rank 9 of 75, best-of-all score 18, data as of July 17, 2026); the trend confluence (stage 2, power trend, quality growth, "pros 80%", institutional accumulation) is real, but it measures the move and the balance sheet — not the political risk.
The 2025 earnings jump is partly a base effect: 2024 was depressed by an $86.6 million loss on extinguishment of debt (2025: $8.4 million). Adjusted, the direction is still clearly upward, carried by ICE detention demand.
Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (price around $28, market value roughly $3.8 billion); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. All revenue, income and balance-sheet figures come from the SEC filings or the XBRL financial data (data.sec.gov).
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at GEO since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 13.30 $ to 32.80 $ · Last price: 32.10 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Security & Protection Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geo Group Inc GEO | 4.3 | 17.0 | 8.3 | 26.0 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 48.7 |
| Allegion PLC ALLE | 13.4 | 21.5 | 14.4 | 44.8 | 18.9 | 7.8 | -11.7 |
| MSA Safety MSA | 6.9 | 24.3 | 14.2 | 47.6 | 22.4 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| ADT Inc ADT | 5.3 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 80.7 | 25.5 | 4.7 | -16.2 |
| Brinks Company BCO | 4.4 | 25.1 | 8.2 | 26.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | -6.6 |
| Brady Corporation BRC | 4.1 | 19.6 | 12.9 | 51.7 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 6.3 |
| CoreCivic Inc CXW | 3.5 | 30.4 | 12.4 | 22.6 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 71.9 |
| NAPCO Security Technologies Inc NSSC | 1.3 | 35.2 | 18.1 | 59.0 | 17.8 | -3.8 | -13.9 |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc EVLV | 0.9 | – | 35.6 | 49.9 | – | 40.5 | -38.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 4.3 | 22.9 | 12.9 | 47.6 | 17.8 | 7.8 | -6.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,179 | 266 | 149 | 1.33 | -28 | 975 | 3,749 |
| 2017 | 2,263 | 248 | 146 | 1.21 | 381 | 1,199 | 4,227 |
| 2018 | 2,331 | 265 | 145 | 1.20 | 274 | 1,040 | 4,247 |
| 2019 | 2,478 | 303 | 167 | 1.40 | 338 | 997 | 4,318 |
| 2020 | 2,350 | 229 | 113 | 0.94 | 442 | 913 | 4,460 |
| 2021 | 2,257 | 288 | 77 | 0.64 | 283 | 976 | 4,537 |
| 2022 | 2,377 | 384 | 172 | 1.41 | 296 | 1,166 | 3,760 |
| 2023 | 2,413 | 352 | 107 | 0.87 | 285 | 1,292 | 3,696 |
| 2024 | 2,424 | 310 | 32 | 0.24 | 242 | 1,335 | 3,632 |
| 2025 | 2,632 | 257 | 254 | 1.82 | 73 | 1,506 | 3,844 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.11 | -44.90 | 608 | -0.10 | 2.50 | 19 | -2 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.14 | -19.80 | 605 | -0.20 | 3.20 | 71 | 41 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.21 | – | 636 | 4.80 | 4.60 | 39 | 2 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.24 | 552.10 | 682 | 13.10 | 25.50 | 80 | -14 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.23 | 108.30 | 708 | 16.50 | 4.50 | -117 | -154 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.29 | 106.00 | 705 | 16.60 | 5.40 | 157 | 135 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.36 | 71.40 | 732 | 15.10 | 6.50 | 80 | 59 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 21 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Near 52-Week High
- Power Trend
- Qullamaggie: Trend Intensity (13/65)
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Checklist
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
- Strength on Stress Days
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.31 | 1.30 – 1.31 | 2,994 | 52.0% | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1.71 | 1.56 – 1.91 | 3,265 | 30.8% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 11.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $161.2M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.28B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $482.0M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 59.3% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 (eingereicht 25.02.2026), den 10-K für 2024 (28.02.2025) und den Quartalsbericht (10-Q) zum 31.03.2026. The GEO Group betreibt private Haft- und Einwanderungshafteinrichtungen sowie elektronische Überwachung im Auftrag von US-Regierungsbehörden. In den ausgewerteten Filings findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug im Sinne des Kriterienkatalogs: KI ist weder Umsatzquelle („verkauft“) noch ein konkret beschriebener operativer Kernprozess mit Effizienz- oder Produktwirkung („nutzt“). „Artificial intelligence“ erscheint im 10-K 2025 ausschließlich als konditionale Compliance- und Rechtsrisiko-Erwägung rund um den etwaigen eigenen Einsatz von KI-/ML-Werkzeugen (Datenschutz, Biometrie, Einstellungspraxis, Cybersicherheit) — „Our current or future use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools […] could expose us to new or additional costs and risks“. Das ist Boilerplate-Risikosprache mit „could“/„current or future use“ und kein konkreter Bezug zum eigenen Geschäftsmodell (private Haft/Überwachung) und damit nach der Vorrang-Regel kein „bedroht“-Beleg. Es bleibt bei „neutral“ — dokumentierter Negativ-Befund.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Our current or future use of artificial intelligence or machine learning tools in our business operations could expose us to new or additional costs and risks, including the potential introduction of new vulnerabilities or cybersecurity risks within our information technology systems."
Unser gegenwärtiger oder künftiger Einsatz von Werkzeugen der Künstlichen Intelligenz oder des maschinellen Lernens in unserem Geschäftsbetrieb könnte uns neuen oder zusätzlichen Kosten und Risiken aussetzen, einschließlich der möglichen Entstehung neuer Schwachstellen oder Cybersicherheitsrisiken in unseren IT-Systemen.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
„We are also subject to increasing legal requirements with respect to the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning applications and tools (including in relation to hiring and employment practices) and biometric information."
Wir unterliegen zudem zunehmenden rechtlichen Anforderungen in Bezug auf den Einsatz von Anwendungen und Werkzeugen der Künstlichen Intelligenz und des maschinellen Lernens (unter anderem im Zusammenhang mit Einstellungs- und Beschäftigungspraktiken) sowie auf biometrische Daten.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-28 · 10-Q 2026-05-07
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 3.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 8.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 4.5%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 3.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 25.2%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 19.7%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 2.6 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 206 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 7.4%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 5.5%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 2.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 11.4%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -0.3%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -3.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 6.4x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 32.9%
- Return on equity > 15% 40.2%
- ROCE > 15% 7.4%
- Expected return > 10% -5.9%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Sell | 11,797 | 31.46 | 371,075 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brack Ronald A. | See Remarks | Sell | 7,000 | 32.00 | 224,000 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Albence Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Sell | 10,000 | 31.69 | 316,860 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Koren Lindsay L. | Director | Sell | 3,500 | 31.31 | 109,568 |
The company
About the Company
The GEO Group, Inc. ist ein führender diversifizierter Anbieter staatlicher Dienstleistungen, spezialisiert auf Planung, Finanzierung, Entwicklung und Unterstützungsdienste für gesicherte Einrichtungen, Bearbeitungszentren und Wiedereingliederungszentren in den USA, Australien, Südafrika und dem Vereinigten Königreich.
- Employees
- 18,000
- Headquarters
- Boca Raton, FL
- Address
- 4955 Technology Way, 33431 Boca Raton, United States
- Phone
- 561 893 0101
- Website
- geogroup.com
- IPO Date
- 07/26/1994
- ISIN
- US36162J1060
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 04/25/2017
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 06/01/2007
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 10/02/2006
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| George C. Zoley Ph.D. | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1950 |
| Joe Negron J.D. | Consultant | 1962 |
| Paul Laird | Senior Vice President of Secure Services | 1966 |
| Shayn P. March | Senior VP & CFO | 1966 |
| Ronald A. Brack | Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 1962 |
| Jose Rosario | Executive VP, Chief Information Officer & Chief Information Security Officer | – |
| Scott A. Schipma | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1968 |
| Nicole Mannarino | Chief Compliance Officer & Controller of Financial Reporting | 1970 |
| Christopher D. Ryan | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | 1963 |
| Wayne H. Calabrese | Consultant | 1951 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/06/2026 GEO GROUP INC (GEO): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.