Serve Robotics Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Two existential findings carry this verdict: the annual and quarterly reports (10-K/10-Q) carry their own "Liquidity and Going Concern" note — $197.4 million in liquidity against roughly $61 million of quarterly outflow mathematically does not last twelve months — and the business destroys money already at the gross margin line (a gross margin around minus 580 percent, a $101.4 million net loss on $2.65 million in annual revenue). Whoever holds is betting that the robot fleet scales into a real business before the cash and the shareholders' patience run out; whoever buys is paying about 200 times revenue for that bet, financed by ongoing dilution. A clearly positive gross margin combined with a falling cash burn would be the trigger for a reassessment — check each quarterly report (10-Q) for exactly that. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Serve Robotics is both at once: a fascinating, real robotics technology with Uber and Nvidia in its corner — and a practically pre-commercial business that sells less in a year than a burger joint and destroys a multiple in costs on every dollar of revenue. The "triple-digit revenue growth" from the scanner comes off a tiny base, was 40 percent acquired and faces eight weakness scanners; the valuation of roughly 200 times revenue is almost entirely a bet on the robot future. Not investment advice.
Technology & market
A real technology lead: level 4 autonomy on sidewalks since 2022, more than 2,000 robots in the field, dozens of pending patent applications. Uber as shareholder and platform partner, DoorDash as the second platform, Nvidia and Ouster technology built in. A large target market with tailwinds from labor costs and driver shortages.
Operating growth
Daily active robots rose from 73 to 812, supply hours from 648 to 10,295 (Q1 2025 → Q1 2026). But 40 percent of the reported revenue jump to $3.0 million was acquired (Diligent); pro forma only about 24 percent growth, and only 812 of more than 2,000 robots are active daily.
Profitability
Practically pre-commercial: $2.65 million in 2025 annual revenue, a gross margin around minus 580 percent, a net loss of $101.4 million (2024: $39.2 million). Another $49.0 million of loss in Q1 2026 alone; accumulated deficit of $257.9 million. Every dollar of revenue destroys a multiple in costs.
Balance sheet & dilution
Liquidity of $197.4 million (03/31/2026), but roughly $61 million of quarterly outflow — mathematically less than twelve months at the Q1 pace. Share count up 48 percent in 15 months (51.3 → 76.0 million), an ATM program of up to $150 million, 20 insider sales and no purchase.
Valuation
Roughly $534 million in market value against $2.65 million in revenue = about 200 times annual revenue; even annualized still around 45. Net of liquidity, the market pays a good $337 million for a business with $2.65 million in revenue and a $101 million loss. Almost all of it is future fantasy.
Worth Noting
Of the Q1 2026 revenue ($3.0 million), $1.2 million came from Diligent Robotics, acquired on January 27, 2026; pro forma, revenue grew only about 24 percent instead of the reported 578 percent. Diligent alone contributed $5.9 million of loss.
No formal going-concern qualification, but a dedicated "Liquidity and Going Concern" note in both the annual report (10-K) and the quarterly report (10-Q); the company points to possible spending cuts and new capital measures.
Uber is verifiably a shareholder (2.43 percent, 03/31/2026); a current Nvidia stake no longer appears in the holder lists of the profile data — Nvidia and Ouster are named in the 10-K as key suppliers (GPUs and lidar, respectively).
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SERV since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 4.30 $ to 17.70 $ · Last price: 4.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Specialty Industrial Machinery
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serve Robotics Inc. SERV | 0.4 | – | 0.0 | -370.1 | – | 46.3 | -63.3 |
| GE Vernova LLC GEV | 270.8 | 26.0 | 81.5 | 20.6 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 50.8 |
| Eaton Corporation PLC ETN | 171.0 | 38.7 | 28.8 | 36.0 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 13.9 |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | 118.5 | 34.3 | 21.7 | 37.6 | 21.5 | -0.4 | 26.3 |
| Emerson Electric Company EMR | 86.6 | 33.8 | 18.4 | 53.2 | 24.2 | 3.0 | 14.3 |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | 78.5 | 25.1 | 17.7 | 44.2 | 25.7 | 0.9 | 4.5 |
| Cummins Inc CMI | 75.0 | 25.8 | 15.3 | 25.8 | 9.8 | -1.3 | 29.1 |
| Ametek Inc AME | 53.7 | 35.1 | 22.7 | 36.9 | 26.3 | 6.6 | 26.6 |
| Rockwell Automation Inc ROK | 47.8 | 42.5 | 28.0 | 49.1 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 22.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 78.5 | 34.1 | 21.7 | 36.9 | 21.1 | 3.0 | 22.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0 | -11 | -22 | -0.59 | -11 | 8 | 9 |
| 2022 | 0 | -21 | -22 | -0.59 | -21 | -12 | 9 |
| 2023 | 0 | -21 | -25 | -0.67 | -16 | -4 | 3 |
| 2024 | 2 | -38 | -39 | -1.07 | -22 | 132 | 140 |
| 2025 | 3 | -113 | -101 | -1.63 | -80 | 351 | 368 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.36 | – | 0 | 309.30 | -7,454.00 | -6 | -11 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.36 | – | 0 | -53.50 | -3,003.60 | -10 | -13 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.36 | – | 1 | 37.20 | -3,247.70 | -16 | -22 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.56 | – | 1 | 209.50 | -4,806.70 | -25 | -37 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.46 | – | 1 | 401.10 | -3,885.80 | -30 | -46 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.64 | – | 3 | 578.20 | -1,642.20 | -41 | -43 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.80 | -122.20 | 3 | 433.30 | -2,003.10 | -43 | -44 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Breakout & Setup
Research
Risk & Weakness
- Below the 50- & 200-SMA
- Beneish M-Score
- Near 52-Week Low
- RS Weakness (≤10)
- Stage 4 (Downtrend)
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 4
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 4B-
- Weakness Cluster
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.11 | -2.11 – -2.11 | 10 | -80.3% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | -1.76 | -1.77 – -1.74 | 34 | 16.8% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Serves Kerngeschäft ist eine KI-gestützte Robotik-Mobilitätsplattform: Laut 10-K/10-Q entsteht der Umsatz direkt aus den Diensten der autonomen Roboterflotte (Liefer-, Branding- und Erlebnisdienste), aus dem Zugang zur Flotten-Software einschließlich autonomer Fähigkeiten sowie aus der Monetarisierung der von den Robotern gesammelten Daten — KI-Produkte und -Dienste sind damit nachweislich die Umsatzquelle.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Serve has developed an advanced, AI-powered robotics mobility platform that integrates proprietary hardware, AI, computer vision, and cloud-based fleet management software to enable autonomous operation in complex, real-world environments."
Serve hat eine fortschrittliche, KI-gestützte Robotik-Mobilitätsplattform entwickelt, die proprietäre Hardware, KI, Computer Vision und cloudbasierte Flottenmanagement-Software integriert, um autonomen Betrieb in komplexen, realen Umgebungen zu ermöglichen.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„The Segment derives revenue from customers by providing (i) services via the Company’s robot fleet, including delivery, branding and experiential services, (ii) access to software developed for the robot fleet, including certain autonomous capabilities, and (iii) access to data collected by the robot fleet, including navigation-related data."
Das Segment erzielt Umsätze mit Kunden durch (i) Dienstleistungen über die Roboterflotte des Unternehmens, einschließlich Liefer-, Branding- und Erlebnisdiensten, (ii) Zugang zu für die Roboterflotte entwickelter Software, einschließlich bestimmter autonomer Fähigkeiten, und (iii) Zugang zu von der Roboterflotte gesammelten Daten, einschließlich navigationsbezogener Daten.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„AI empowers Serve robots to navigate outdoor and indoor environments and interact with their environment safely and efficiently. We use the latest AI methodologies to design, train and deploy a host of models on Serve robots."
KI befähigt die Serve-Roboter, in Außen- und Innenumgebungen zu navigieren und sicher und effizient mit ihrer Umgebung zu interagieren. Wir nutzen die neuesten KI-Methoden, um eine Vielzahl von Modellen für die Serve-Roboter zu entwerfen, zu trainieren und einzusetzen.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„The Segment derives revenue from customers by providing (i) services via the Company’s robot fleet, including indoor and outdoor delivery services, branding and experiential services, and (ii) access to software developed for the robot fleet, including certain autonomous capabilities."
Das Segment erzielt Umsätze mit Kunden durch (i) Dienstleistungen über die Roboterflotte des Unternehmens, einschließlich Innen- und Außen-Lieferdiensten sowie Branding- und Erlebnisdiensten, und (ii) Zugang zu für die Roboterflotte entwickelter Software, einschließlich bestimmter autonomer Fähigkeiten.
10-Q · 2026-05-07 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-14 · 10-Q 2025-08-08 · 10-Q 2025-05-08 · 10-K 2026-03-12 · 10-K 2025-03-06
Rated on July 9, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 190.7%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 199.3%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 19.0%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -4,388.8%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -580.2%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 4.2%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 228 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 48 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -31.8%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 8.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 255.5%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 255.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -33.4%
- ROCE > 15% -31.8%
- Expected return > 10% 148.1%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 9,700 | 4.80 | 46,560 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 6,129 | 4.56 | 27,948 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Kashani Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 45,158 | 4.56 | 205,920 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | Sell | 19,810 | 4.56 | 90,334 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | Sell | 18,183 | 4.53 | 82,369 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Sell | 25,240 | 5.24 | 132,258 |
The company
About the Company
Serve Robotics Inc. entwirft, entwickelt und betreibt emissionsarme Roboter, die Menschen in öffentlichen und gewerblichen Räumen für die Essenslieferung in den USA bedienen.
- CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.)
- selling own stock
- Employees
- 370
- Headquarters
- Redwood City, CA
- Address
- 730 Broadway, 94063 Redwood City, United States
- Phone
- 818 860 1352
- Website
- serverobotics.com
- IPO Date
- 03/07/2024
- ISIN
- US81758H1068
- Stock Split
- 1493:1000 on 10/01/2018
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Ali Kashani Ph.D. | Co-Founder, Chairman, CEO, Treasurer & Secretary | 1985 |
| Touraj Parang J.D. | President, COO & Director | 1973 |
| Brian Read | Chief Financial Officer | 1990 |
| MJ Burk Chun | Co-Founder and VP of Product & Design | 1978 |
| Dmitry Demeshchuk | Co-Founder & VP of Software | 1989 |
| Evan Dunn | General Counsel | – |
| Steve Webb | Senior Vice President of Marketing & Communications | – |
| Euan Abraham | Chief Hardware & Manufacturing Officer | 1977 |
| Prahar Shah | Chief Revenue Officer | 1985 |
| Anthony Armenta | Chief Software & Data Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.