Novavax Inc (NVAX)
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symbol.quality_heading
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
The red light here is about substance, not about the share price. Two documented findings hit the company itself: shareholders' equity was negative at minus $144.8 million on March 31, 2026, against an accumulated deficit of $4.57 billion — and operating cash flow was negative in 2023, 2024 and 2025, most recently with $244.6 million flowing out in the very first profitable year in company history. On top of that, substantially all assets have been pledged since February 2026, including the equity of Sweden-based Novavax AB, where the Matrix-M technology sits. There is a great deal on the other side: both of the most recent reports certify sufficient capital for the next twelve months, liquidity stood at $794.9 million on March 31, 2026, and selling, general and administrative expense fell from $468.9 million in 2023 to $157.5 million in 2025. This is therefore not a verdict of insolvency — but a company with no equity cushion, whose ongoing business still burns cash and whose recurring income most recently amounted to $3.5 million in a quarter, has not yet proven its quality: hence red. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Novavax sits at rank 49 in our Big Earnings Surprise scanner (U.S. selection, 81 hits, data as of July 25, 2026): earnings per share beat the consensus estimate in five consecutive quarters, most recently by 84 percent. We read the 2025 annual report (10-K), the quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2026, and every current report filed through July 24, 2026. The result: $1.12 billion of 2025 revenue — $603.0 million of it from two terminated supply agreements with Canada and New Zealand. In the same year $244.6 million left the operating business, and shareholders' equity has been negative for years. Anyone buying in here should know whose bill they are actually reading.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NVAX since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 7.30 $ — 22% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AINovavax nennt im Geschäftsbericht 2025 ausdrücklich den eigenen Einsatz von künstlicher Intelligenz, maschinellem Lernen und automatisierten Entscheidungstechnologien im Geschäftsbetrieb; KI ist kein Produkt des Unternehmens, sondern ein Werkzeug mit eigenem Regulierungs- und Schutzrechtsrisiko.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In addition, we use artificial intelligence, machine learning and automated decision-making technologies (collectively, “AI Technologies”) in our business."
Darüber hinaus setzen wir in unserem Geschäft künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungstechnologien (zusammen „KI-Technologien“) ein.
„In addition, we may experience difficulties in enforcing the intellectual property rights in output generated by generative AI Technologies (as defined below)."
Darüber hinaus könnten wir Schwierigkeiten haben, die Rechte des geistigen Eigentums an Ergebnissen durchzusetzen, die von generativen KI-Technologien (wie unten definiert) erzeugt wurden.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 8-K 2026-01-20 · 8-K 2025-10-22 · 8-K 2025-08-27 · 8-K 2025-08-21
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 93.3% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 9
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.47 | -1.38 – 0.52 | 410 | -112.7% | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.25 | -0.85 – 0.80 | 259 | -30.2% | 9 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.36 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.99 | 70.70 | 416 | -2.10 | 39.10 | 314 | 311 |
| 2024: Q3 | -0.76 | 39.70 | 85 | 283.00 | -143.50 | -145 | -147 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.52 | 63.90 | 88 | -69.70 | -91.80 | -173 | -175 |
| 2025: Q1 | 2.93 | 379.00 | 667 | 610.30 | 77.80 | -186 | -187 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.62 | -37.40 | 239 | -42.40 | 44.50 | -128 | -128 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.47 | 38.20 | 70 | -16.60 | -287.30 | 108 | 106 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.11 | 121.20 | 147 | 66.60 | 11.90 | -40 | -42 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.06 | -102.00 | 140 | -79.10 | -6.80 | -32 | -34 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | -269 | -280 | -20.68 | -255 | -6 | 394 |
| 2017 | 31 | -172 | -184 | -12.56 | -139 | -102 | 302 |
| 2018 | 34 | -174 | -185 | -9.99 | -185 | -168 | 208 |
| 2019 | 19 | -121 | -130 | -5.40 | -137 | -186 | 173 |
| 2020 | 476 | -417 | -428 | -7.43 | -43 | 627 | 1,582 |
| 2021 | 1,146 | -1,687 | -1,744 | -23.44 | 323 | -352 | 2,577 |
| 2022 | 1,599 | -645 | -658 | -8.42 | -416 | -634 | 2,259 |
| 2023 | 556 | -567 | -545 | -5.41 | -714 | -717 | 1,797 |
| 2024 | 682 | -249 | -188 | -1.23 | -87 | -624 | 1,560 |
| 2025 | 1,123 | 563 | 440 | 2.54 | -245 | -128 | 1,177 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Of $1,123.5 million in 2025 revenue, $603.0 million came from terminating the advance purchase agreements with Canada and New Zealand; actual product sales were roughly $82 million. In the first quarter of 2026 revenue fell to $139.5 million (10-K 2025; 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026).
$794.9 million of cash, restricted cash and marketable securities at March 31, 2026 against a market value of roughly $1.23 billion (data as of July 25, 2026); selling, general and administrative expense fell to $157.5 million in 2025 from $468.9 million in 2023 (10-K 2025).
Negative equity of $144.8 million at March 31, 2026 against a $4.57 billion accumulated deficit; secured debt for the first time, with a first-priority lien on substantially all assets, an 11.0 percent effective interest rate and a $100.0 million minimum cash covenant (10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, Note 11).
Sanofi and, since January 2026, Pfizer pay for Matrix-M; outstanding milestones run to $350 million (COVID-19), $350 million (combination vaccine) and $500 million (Pfizer). Actual royalties in the first quarter of 2026, however, came to just $3.5 million (10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, Note 5).
Up to $92.5 million of deferred revenue from the Australian advance purchase agreement may become refundable; the local marketing application was withdrawn in the third quarter of 2025, and $133.8 million sat on the balance sheet as current and non-current deferred revenue at March 31, 2026 (10-Q, Note 5).
Five consecutive quarters above consensus, most recently plus 83.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026 — but the beats stem from one-off payments no analyst can time, not from operating improvement; relative strength stands at 52 (data as of July 25, 2026).
Novavax has turned itself from a vaccine seller into a licensor and posted the first annual profit in company history in 2025 — $440.3 million. Yet more than half of the underlying revenue came from two terminated supply agreements, and in the same year $244.6 million of cash left the operating business. On the credit side stand a halved cost base, $794.9 million of liquidity and two global groups as licensees; on the debit side negative equity, assets pledged for the first time, and a recurring income stream that amounted to just $3.5 million in the first quarter of 2026. Not investment advice.
- NVAX reached our research list at rank 49 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise scanner (U.S. selection, 81 hits, relative strength 52, data as of July 25, 2026); the scanner lists are recalculated daily.
- Identity verified against EDGAR: Novavax, Inc., CIK 0001000694, Nasdaq, no former names, no successor CIK, U.S. domestic filer reporting on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, fiscal year ending December 31.
- Easy to confuse: Novavax is not an mRNA manufacturer. Nuvaxovid is protein-based, and the Matrix-M platform is an adjuvant that also sits inside third-party vaccines such as the R21 malaria vaccine.
- Price and market value figures carry the data date July 25, 2026 (closing price of July 24, 2026: $7.46) and were cross-checked against the 164,438,119 shares outstanding reported as of April 30, 2026.
- Contrary to some summaries, Novavax has not carried out a reverse stock split: neither the 2025 annual report nor the quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2026 mentions one.
About the Company
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
| Employees | 749 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Gaithersburg, MD |
| Address | 21 Firstfield Road, 20878 Gaithersburg, United States |
| Phone | 240 268 2000 |
| Website | novavax.com |
| IPO Date | 5. Dec 1995 |
| ISIN | US6700024010 |
| Stock Split | 1:20 on 05/10/2019 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John Charles Jacobs M.B.A. | President, CEO & Director | 1967 |
| James Patrick Kelly C.F.A. | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1966 |
| Mark J. Casey Esq., J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1963 |
| Elaine O'Hara | Executive VP & Chief Strategy Officer | 1968 |
| Richard P. Crowley | Executive VP & COO | 1957 |
| Luis Sanay C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Troy Morgan Esq., J.D. | Senior VP, Deputy General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer | 1971 |
| Erika S. Trahan | Associate Director of Investor & Public Relations | – |
| Ian J. Watkins | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1963 |
| Silvia Taylor M.B.A. | Executive VP, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer & Head of Novavax Sweden | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.