Novavax Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
The red light here is about substance, not about the share price. Two documented findings hit the company itself: shareholders' equity was negative at minus $144.8 million on March 31, 2026, against an accumulated deficit of $4.57 billion — and operating cash flow was negative in 2023, 2024 and 2025, most recently with $244.6 million flowing out in the very first profitable year in company history. On top of that, substantially all assets have been pledged since February 2026, including the equity of Sweden-based Novavax AB, where the Matrix-M technology sits. There is a great deal on the other side: both of the most recent reports certify sufficient capital for the next twelve months, liquidity stood at $794.9 million on March 31, 2026, and selling, general and administrative expense fell from $468.9 million in 2023 to $157.5 million in 2025. This is therefore not a verdict of insolvency — but a company with no equity cushion, whose ongoing business still burns cash and whose recurring income most recently amounted to $3.5 million in a quarter, has not yet proven its quality: hence red. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Novavax has turned itself from a vaccine seller into a licensor and posted the first annual profit in company history in 2025 — $440.3 million. Yet more than half of the underlying revenue came from two terminated supply agreements, and in the same year $244.6 million of cash left the operating business. On the credit side stand a halved cost base, $794.9 million of liquidity and two global groups as licensees; on the debit side negative equity, assets pledged for the first time, and a recurring income stream that amounted to just $3.5 million in the first quarter of 2026. Not investment advice.
Earnings quality
Of $1,123.5 million in 2025 revenue, $603.0 million came from terminating the advance purchase agreements with Canada and New Zealand; actual product sales were roughly $82 million. In the first quarter of 2026 revenue fell to $139.5 million (10-K 2025; 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026).
Cash position & cost base
$794.9 million of cash, restricted cash and marketable securities at March 31, 2026 against a market value of roughly $1.23 billion (data as of July 25, 2026); selling, general and administrative expense fell to $157.5 million in 2025 from $468.9 million in 2023 (10-K 2025).
Balance sheet & leverage
Negative equity of $144.8 million at March 31, 2026 against a $4.57 billion accumulated deficit; secured debt for the first time, with a first-priority lien on substantially all assets, an 11.0 percent effective interest rate and a $100.0 million minimum cash covenant (10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, Note 11).
Licensing model
Sanofi and, since January 2026, Pfizer pay for Matrix-M; outstanding milestones run to $350 million (COVID-19), $350 million (combination vaccine) and $500 million (Pfizer). Actual royalties in the first quarter of 2026, however, came to just $3.5 million (10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, Note 5).
Open contract risk
Up to $92.5 million of deferred revenue from the Australian advance purchase agreement may become refundable; the local marketing application was withdrawn in the third quarter of 2025, and $133.8 million sat on the balance sheet as current and non-current deferred revenue at March 31, 2026 (10-Q, Note 5).
Earnings surprise streak
Five consecutive quarters above consensus, most recently plus 83.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026 — but the beats stem from one-off payments no analyst can time, not from operating improvement; relative strength stands at 52 (data as of July 25, 2026).
Worth Noting
NVAX reached our research list at rank 49 in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise scanner (U.S. selection, 81 hits, relative strength 52, data as of July 25, 2026); the scanner lists are recalculated daily.
Identity verified against EDGAR: Novavax, Inc., CIK 0001000694, Nasdaq, no former names, no successor CIK, U.S. domestic filer reporting on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, fiscal year ending December 31.
Easy to confuse: Novavax is not an mRNA manufacturer. Nuvaxovid is protein-based, and the Matrix-M platform is an adjuvant that also sits inside third-party vaccines such as the R21 malaria vaccine.
Price and market value figures carry the data date July 25, 2026 (closing price of July 24, 2026: $7.46) and were cross-checked against the 164,438,119 shares outstanding reported as of April 30, 2026.
Contrary to some summaries, Novavax has not carried out a reverse stock split: neither the 2025 annual report nor the quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2026 mentions one.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NVAX since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 6.20 $ to 11.20 $ · Last price: 10.00 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novavax Inc NVAX | 1.6 | – | 1.7 | -2.6 | -7.2 | 64.7 | 19.2 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 130.6 | 31.3 | 24.5 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 33.4 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 82.0 | 19.9 | 13.1 | 44.5 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 35.5 |
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 62.7 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 532.3 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 61.9 | 38.1 | 34.2 | 59.1 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 30.9 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 40.9 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 338.3 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 40.0 | 63.1 | 34.1 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 6.4 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc ALNY | 32.6 | 61.8 | 28.4 | 79.7 | 23.0 | 65.2 | -48.1 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 32.5 | 31.8 | 19.6 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 68.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 40.9 | 34.9 | 19.6 | 55.0 | 20.7 | 9.6 | 33.4 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | -269 | -280 | -20.68 | -255 | -6 | 394 |
| 2017 | 31 | -172 | -184 | -12.56 | -139 | -102 | 302 |
| 2018 | 34 | -174 | -185 | -9.99 | -185 | -168 | 208 |
| 2019 | 19 | -121 | -130 | -5.40 | -137 | -186 | 173 |
| 2020 | 476 | -417 | -428 | -7.43 | -43 | 627 | 1,582 |
| 2021 | 1,146 | -1,687 | -1,744 | -23.44 | 323 | -352 | 2,577 |
| 2022 | 1,599 | -645 | -658 | -8.42 | -416 | -634 | 2,259 |
| 2023 | 556 | -567 | -545 | -5.41 | -714 | -717 | 1,797 |
| 2024 | 682 | -249 | -188 | -1.23 | -87 | -624 | 1,560 |
| 2025 | 1,123 | 563 | 440 | 2.54 | -245 | -128 | 1,177 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.99 | 70.70 | 416 | -2.10 | 39.10 | 314 | 311 |
| 2024: Q3 | -0.76 | 39.70 | 85 | 283.00 | -143.50 | -145 | -147 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.52 | 63.90 | 88 | -69.70 | -91.80 | -173 | -175 |
| 2025: Q1 | 2.93 | 379.00 | 667 | 610.30 | 77.80 | -186 | -187 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.62 | -37.40 | 239 | -42.40 | 44.50 | -128 | -128 |
| 2025: Q3 | -1.25 | -64.50 | 70 | -16.60 | -287.30 | 108 | 106 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.11 | 121.20 | 147 | 66.60 | 11.90 | -40 | -42 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.06 | -102.00 | 140 | -79.10 | -6.80 | -32 | -34 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.32 | -151.60 | 57 | -76.30 | -94.20 | -73 | -73 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 6 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.63 | -1.32 – 0.48 | 373 | -113.1% | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.22 | -0.85 – 0.67 | 266 | -43.8% | 9 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Novavax nennt im Geschäftsbericht 2025 ausdrücklich den eigenen Einsatz von künstlicher Intelligenz, maschinellem Lernen und automatisierten Entscheidungstechnologien im Geschäftsbetrieb; KI ist kein Produkt des Unternehmens, sondern ein Werkzeug mit eigenem Regulierungs- und Schutzrechtsrisiko.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In addition, we use artificial intelligence, machine learning and automated decision-making technologies (collectively, “AI Technologies”) in our business."
Darüber hinaus setzen wir in unserem Geschäft künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungstechnologien (zusammen „KI-Technologien“) ein.
10-K · 2026-02-26 · View SEC filing
„In addition, we may experience difficulties in enforcing the intellectual property rights in output generated by generative AI Technologies (as defined below)."
Darüber hinaus könnten wir Schwierigkeiten haben, die Rechte des geistigen Eigentums an Ergebnissen durchzusetzen, die von generativen KI-Technologien (wie unten definiert) erzeugt wurden.
10-K · 2026-02-26 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 8-K 2026-01-20 · 8-K 2025-10-22 · 8-K 2025-08-27 · 8-K 2025-08-21
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -11.1%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -90.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 30.3%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 42.4%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 93.7%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 9.6%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 486 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -754 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 78.6%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 5.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 61.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -51.3%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -51.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -0.9x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 1
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 0.0%
- Return on equity > 15% –
- ROCE > 15% 78.6%
- Expected return > 10% -58.8%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
- Employees
- 749
- Headquarters
- Gaithersburg, MD
- Address
- 21 Firstfield Road, 20878 Gaithersburg, United States
- Phone
- 240 268 2000
- Website
- novavax.com
- IPO Date
- 12/05/1995
- ISIN
- US6700024010
- Stock Split
- 1:20 on 05/10/2019
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John Charles Jacobs M.B.A. | President, CEO & Director | 1967 |
| James Patrick Kelly C.F.A. | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1966 |
| Mark J. Casey Esq., J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1963 |
| Elaine O'Hara | Executive VP & Chief Strategy Officer | 1968 |
| Richard P. Crowley | Executive VP & COO | 1957 |
| Naina Zaman | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Troy Morgan Esq., J.D. | Senior VP, Deputy General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer | 1971 |
| Erika S. Trahan | Associate Director of Investor & Public Relations | – |
| Ian J. Watkins | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1963 |
| Silvia Taylor M.B.A. | Executive VP, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer & Head of Novavax Sweden | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/06/2026 NOVAVAX INC (NVAX): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.