Nextdecade Corp
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Red, because several of the criteria for a documented risk to the substance of the company are met at once — each of them evidenced by its own filings. First, negative shareholders' equity: minus $57.280 million as of June 30, 2026, after plus $95.338 million half a year earlier. Second, interest coverage far below 1: in the first half of 2026 interest expense alone charged $170.024 million against the income statement while revenue was zero — and that is only the visible half, as $434.244 million was incurred in total. Third, persistently negative operating cash flow: minus $128.016 million in the first half of 2026 after minus $169.397 million for all of 2025. The counterargument belongs here too, and it carries weight: this is not an insolvency case. The project debt sits without recourse to NextDecade in the subsidiaries, KPMG's audit opinion for 2025 dated February 27, 2026 contains no going-concern qualification, no principal falls due from 2026 through 2029, and the financing partners keep paying in — TotalEnergies alone roughly $377.5 million in the first half of 2026. So red does not describe a looming inability to pay here; it describes the state of the substance attributable to shareholders: it has been consumed in the books, and the claim on future earnings is thin and subordinated at up to about 20.8 percent from Phase 1. Expressly not part of this color: the share price, the valuation level and the price trend — that the stock lost roughly a quarter between the documented anchor of $8.50 (May 12, 2026) and the data as of July 31, 2026 is a price argument and does not set the rating. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
NextDecade is building one of the largest LNG plants in the United States on the Brownsville Ship Channel for roughly $31.4 billion — as of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 are 74.0 percent complete, 25.3 million tonnes of annual capacity are sold for a weighted 19.5 years, and the schedule is holding. Almost all of it has been paid for with other people's money: the consolidated total assets of roughly $15.2 billion sit largely in joint ventures whose Phase 1 distributions entitle NextDecade to no more than about 20.8 percent — and the majority of that only after the financing partners. Equity attributable to its own shareholders tipped from $95.338 million to minus $57.280 million in the first half of 2026, interest reached $434.244 million in six months against zero revenue, and $128.016 million flowed out of operations. Anyone buying here is buying a subordinated share of distributions that cannot begin before 2027 at the earliest. Not investment advice.
Construction and order book
As of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 were 74.0 percent complete (engineering 99.1, procurement 97.8, construction 58.9 percent), Train 3 50.4 percent, Train 4 15.5 percent and Train 5 9.4 percent. Phase 1 is ahead of the guaranteed schedule, Trains 4 and 5 are on plan, and the timeline is unchanged from the prior quarter: first gas in the second half of 2026, first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027. Sold are 25.3 MTPA across 14 counterparties with a weighted 19.5 years remaining; the expected fixed fees from the 23.75 MTPA of Henry Hub-linked contracts run to roughly $3.0 billion a year. Bechtel builds at a fixed price with guaranteed performance.
Economic interest in the project
The annual report (Form 10-K) for 2025 puts the entitlement at up to about 20.8 percent of the available cash distributions from Phase 1 — and makes clear in the same sentence that the majority of that share is paid only after the equity partners have received their agreed distribution threshold and any deficit payments from earlier periods. At Train 4 it is 40 percent (rising to 60), at Train 5 50 percent (rising to 70). The balance sheet nevertheless consolidates 100 percent: as of December 31, 2025, $12.127 billion of the $12.426 billion of total assets and $8.617 billion of the $10.125 billion of liabilities sat in the joint ventures. Every resolution there also requires a majority of both classes of managers.
Balance sheet and equity
Equity attributable to NextDecade stockholders fell from $377.641 million (December 31, 2024) via $95.338 million (December 31, 2025) to minus $57.280 million as of June 30, 2026, roughly minus $0.22 per share. The accumulated deficit rose in that same half-year from $759.957 million to $961.789 million. Non-controlling interests reached $2,873.882 million, or 102 percent of the entire reported equity of $2,816.602 million. A price-to-book ratio can no longer be formed from that.
Interest burden and cash outflow
In the first half of 2026 NextDecade incurred $434.244 million of interest (prior-year period $192.615 million); $264.220 million of it was capitalized as construction cost (60.8 percent) and only $170.024 million appeared in the income statement — against zero revenue. Just $47.250 million was paid in cash, and another $36.502 million was added to the debt in kind. Operating cash flow was minus $128.016 million after minus $169.397 million for all of 2025; liquidity fell from $707.088 million to $499.569 million, of which only $83.678 million is unrestricted.
Financing and partners
The project debt sits without recourse to NextDecade in the subsidiaries; no principal falls due from 2026 through 2029, and only roughly $4.49 billion in 2030. The refinancing is running to plan: $3.5 billion of notes in four tranches on July 2, 2026, with more than $6.4 billion of the original $11.1 billion of Phase 1 construction loans refinanced (as of July 29, 2026). Global Infrastructure Partners (BlackRock), GIC, Mubadala and TotalEnergies keep paying in — TotalEnergies alone roughly $377.5 million in the first half of 2026. On the other side: the new $1.0 billion loan at 7.05 percent at a new level above the project company, with interest added to the debt by default until after June 17, 2029; the corporate Series B loan at 13.50 percent (mandatorily half in cash from March 31, 2027); and the net assets of the subsidiaries tied to conditions, while the parent company held zero current assets as of December 31, 2025.
Permitting, schedule and data quality
All material permits for Trains 1 through 5 are in hand, and FERC reaffirmed them in August 2025. Since December 2025, however, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has again been reviewing the remand order; the case is pending with no decision date, and the petitioners are not named in the report. The quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026 reports no other legal proceedings. On the data: as a project developer without revenue, NextDecade publishes no quarterly results releases (8-K, Item 2.02) — the only such filing in its corporate history dates from July 28, 2017. Metrics from data feeds come up empty for want of profit, revenue and positive equity.
Worth Noting
NEXT reached our research list through the Reddit hype watch run of our in-house stock scanner, cut-off date July 31, 2026 — that is, through the sheer frequency of mentions in investor forums. That is a reason to read the original documents, not a quality signal. Classic metric screens do not grip here anyway: no profit means no P/E, no revenue means no P/S, and without positive equity there is no meaningful P/B. The fundamental data shows a Piotroski score of 1 out of 9, an Altman Z of −0.11 and an equity ratio of 0.8 percent as of July 31, 2026.
Recency gate: the most recent periodic report is the quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026, filed July 30, 2026; it has been evaluated. There is no same-day results release (8-K, Item 2.02) — and that is structural: NextDecade has filed exactly one 8-K carrying Item 2.02 in its entire corporate history, on July 28, 2017 in the course of the SPAC merger. As a project developer without revenue the company publishes no quarterly results releases through EDGAR. Also filed on July 30, 2026 and evaluated: the registration statement S-8 covering 5,000,000 employee shares. Every filing since the annual report was reviewed individually: 8-K of April 15, 2026, DEF 14A of April 23, 2026, S-3ASR of May 13, 2026, DEFA14A of May 19, 2026, 8-K of June 3, 2026, SCHEDULE 13D of June 10, 2026, 8-K of June 18, 2026, 8-K of July 2, 2026. No Form 25, no Form 15, no 424B*.
Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: the only price documented in a filing is $8.50 of May 12, 2026 (cover page of the S-3ASR), giving a market value of roughly $2.26 billion; as of July 31, 2026 it is $6.73 and roughly $1.79 billion (266,185,433 x $6.73). The feed market value ($1.68 billion) uses the share count of May 8, 2026 and the prior close and deviates from the same arithmetic by less than one percent. Traps to avoid: the 2024 consolidated net income of $277.447 million was a loss of $61.751 million for shareholders, because $339.198 million was allocated to the partners; the $3.5 billion notes offering of July 2, 2026 is a refinancing and not additional debt; and the 19,730,742 shares registered on May 13, 2026 are a resale shelf for existing holders from which NextDecade receives not a dollar.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NEXT since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 4.80 $ to 9.10 $ · Last price: 7.00 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nextdecade Corp NEXT | 1.7 | – | 18.9 | – | 0.0 | – | 7.2 |
| Schlumberger NV SLB | 77.5 | 22.2 | 13.2 | 17.0 | 12.3 | -1.6 | 53.4 |
| Baker Hughes Co BKR | 56.1 | 17.9 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 23.6 |
| Tenaris SA TS | 30.3 | 15.1 | 8.3 | 38.5 | 16.7 | -4.3 | 60.6 |
| TechnipFMC PLC FTI | 29.0 | 26.6 | 14.5 | 23.0 | 14.1 | 9.4 | 87.2 |
| Halliburton Company HAL | 28.5 | 18.0 | 9.8 | 15.1 | 12.6 | -3.3 | 57.0 |
| NOV Inc. NOV | 7.3 | 78.5 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 62.6 |
| Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc SEI | 6.8 | – | 23.5 | 49.9 | 25.8 | 98.7 | 109.9 |
| LandBridge Company LLC LB | 6.6 | 76.0 | 19.8 | 98.8 | 66.1 | 81.1 | 59.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 28.5 | 22.2 | 13.2 | 23.3 | 12.6 | -0.9 | 59.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.10 | 0 | 113 | 118 |
| 2017 | 0 | -36 | -35 | -0.35 | -13 | 103 | 116 |
| 2018 | 0 | -43 | -42 | -0.39 | -23 | 149 | 169 |
| 2019 | 0 | -35 | -36 | -0.33 | -41 | 188 | 221 |
| 2020 | 0 | -22 | -14 | -0.12 | -26 | 173 | 202 |
| 2021 | 0 | -20 | -22 | -0.18 | -18 | 188 | 222 |
| 2022 | 0 | -54 | -60 | -0.46 | -40 | 257 | 312 |
| 2023 | 0 | -123 | -162 | -0.83 | -74 | 288 | 3,324 |
| 2024 | 0 | -171 | -62 | -0.24 | -96 | 378 | 6,404 |
| 2025 | 0 | -226 | -306 | -1.17 | -169 | 95 | 12,426 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.39 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | 6 | -572 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.80 | 233.30 | 0 | – | – | -64 | -569 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.25 | -52.80 | 8 | 754.90 | 844.20 | -9 | -704 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.34 | -409.10 | 0 | – | – | -69 | -839 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.29 | 26.60 | 0 | – | – | -4 | -736 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.42 | -152.50 | 0 | – | – | -76 | -1,434 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.89 | -454.80 | 0 | -100.00 | – | -21 | -2,292 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.51 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | -111 | -1,288 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.25 | -8.70 | 0 | – | – | -17 | -998 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 13 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
- Insider Buying (Net)
- Institutional + Insiders Building Positions
- Institutional Accumulation
- Pros 80%
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.10 | -2.10 – -2.10 | 0 | -107.5% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.15 | 0.15 – 0.15 | 1,731 | 107.1% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
NextDecade baut und finanziert mit dem Rio Grande LNG Terminal in Brownsville/Texas eine Verflüssigungsanlage und verdient sein Geld über langfristige LNG-Abnahmeverträge; in den sieben geprüften SEC-Unterlagen (Geschäftsberichte 10-K 2024 und 2025, die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte 10-Q sowie die Einladung zur Hauptversammlung DEF 14A vom 23.04.2026) gibt es weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle noch belegten operativen KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko für das eigene Modell: Die Begriffe „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ und „AI“ kommen in keinem der vier Quartalsberichte und im Geschäftsbericht 2024 kein einziges Mal vor, im Geschäftsbericht 2025 genau einmal — als allgemeine Cybersicherheits-Floskel im Risikoteil („as cyberattacks continue to evolve, including use of artificial intelligence“), die nach dem Kriterienkatalog ausdrücklich kein „Bedroht“-Beleg ist; die einzige weitere Erwähnung steht in der Hauptversammlungs-Einladung in der Lebenslauf-Passage eines Aufsichtsrats (Beiratsmandat bei einem KI-Wagniskapitalgeber) und betrifft das Geschäft von NextDecade gar nicht. Auffällig ist zudem, was fehlt: Das sonst branchenübliche Nachfrage-Argument „Strombedarf von Rechenzentren“ taucht in keiner der geprüften Unterlagen auf — die Wörter „data center“ und „hyperscale“ kommen dort kein einziges Mal vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-30 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-K 2025-02-28 · DEF 14A 2026-04-23
Rated on July 31, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Quality check
AAQS
0/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% –
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% –
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -321.4%
- ROCE > 15% -2.0%
- Expected return > 10% –
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Skeik Tarik | Chief Operating Officer | Other | 7,732 | 7.54 | 58,299 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | de Gyarfas Vera | General Counsel | Other | 15,463 | 7.54 | 116,591 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Schatzman Matthew K | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 69,583 | 7.54 | 524,656 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Boylston Luke | Chief Accounting Officer | Other | 6,563 | 7.54 | 49,485 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Boylston Luke | Chief Accounting Officer | Other | 23,872 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Skeik Tarik | Chief Operating Officer | Other | 18,043 | 7.54 | 136,044 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Skeik Tarik | Chief Operating Officer | Other | 99,469 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | de Gyarfas Vera | General Counsel | Other | 30,378 | 7.54 | 229,050 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | de Gyarfas Vera | General Counsel | Other | 132,625 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Schatzman Matthew K | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 135,928 | 7.54 | 1,024,897 |
The company
About the Company
NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States. The company constructs and develops natural gas liquefaction and export facilities located in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas; and a carbon capture and storage project at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. It is also involved in the sale of LNG. NextDecade Corporation was founded in 2010 and is based in Houston, Texas.
- Employees
- 360
- Headquarters
- Houston, TX
- Address
- 1000 Louisiana Street, 77002 Houston, United States
- Phone
- 713 574 1880
- Website
- next-decade.com
- IPO Date
- 06/04/2015
- ISIN
- US65342K1051
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew K. Schatzman | Chairman & CEO | 1966 |
| Tarik Skeik | Chief Operating Officer | 1981 |
| Vera De Brito de Gyarfas | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1967 |
| Michael Reed Mott | Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation | 1961 |
| John D. Zuklic | Chief Financial Officer | 1968 |
| Luke Boylston | Chief Accounting Officer | 1990 |
| Raquel Couri | Executive Vice President of Human Resources & Administration | – |
| Megan Light | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| James MacTaggart | Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Alexander Thompson | Senior Vice President of Engineering & Construction | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.