Nextdecade Corp (NEXT)
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symbol.quality_heading
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Red, because several of the criteria for a documented risk to the substance of the company are met at once — each of them evidenced by its own filings. First, negative shareholders' equity: minus $57.280 million as of June 30, 2026, after plus $95.338 million half a year earlier. Second, interest coverage far below 1: in the first half of 2026 interest expense alone charged $170.024 million against the income statement while revenue was zero — and that is only the visible half, as $434.244 million was incurred in total. Third, persistently negative operating cash flow: minus $128.016 million in the first half of 2026 after minus $169.397 million for all of 2025. The counterargument belongs here too, and it carries weight: this is not an insolvency case. The project debt sits without recourse to NextDecade in the subsidiaries, KPMG's audit opinion for 2025 dated February 27, 2026 contains no going-concern qualification, no principal falls due from 2026 through 2029, and the financing partners keep paying in — TotalEnergies alone roughly $377.5 million in the first half of 2026. So red does not describe a looming inability to pay here; it describes the state of the substance attributable to shareholders: it has been consumed in the books, and the claim on future earnings is thin and subordinated at up to about 20.8 percent from Phase 1. Expressly not part of this color: the share price, the valuation level and the price trend — that the stock lost roughly a quarter between the documented anchor of $8.50 (May 12, 2026) and the data as of July 31, 2026 is a price argument and does not set the rating. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
On the Brownsville Ship Channel in South Texas, roughly $31.4 billion is being turned into one of the largest construction sites in the United States: five liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of around 30 million tonnes a year, 25.3 million tonnes of it already sold to 14 buyers under contracts averaging 19.5 years. The build is running ahead of the guaranteed schedule, and first gas is due to flow into the plant in the second half of 2026. And yet the balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 carries a number you would never expect on a project like this: the equity attributable to NextDecade stockholders has fallen to minus $57.280 million. The cause is not an accounting scandal, it is a contract — the filings with the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, put the shareholders' share of the cash distributions from Phase 1 at up to about 20.8 percent, and the majority of that is paid only after the financing partners have cleared their threshold. This analysis does the arithmetic on what actually reaches you out of a $15.2 billion balance sheet. Not investment advice — just the question of how wide your slice of that construction site really is.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 31, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NEXT since then.
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This stock currently matches 13 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 6.70 $ — 29% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralNextDecade baut und finanziert mit dem Rio Grande LNG Terminal in Brownsville/Texas eine Verflüssigungsanlage und verdient sein Geld über langfristige LNG-Abnahmeverträge; in den sieben geprüften SEC-Unterlagen (Geschäftsberichte 10-K 2024 und 2025, die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte 10-Q sowie die Einladung zur Hauptversammlung DEF 14A vom 23.04.2026) gibt es weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle noch belegten operativen KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko für das eigene Modell: Die Begriffe „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ und „AI“ kommen in keinem der vier Quartalsberichte und im Geschäftsbericht 2024 kein einziges Mal vor, im Geschäftsbericht 2025 genau einmal — als allgemeine Cybersicherheits-Floskel im Risikoteil („as cyberattacks continue to evolve, including use of artificial intelligence“), die nach dem Kriterienkatalog ausdrücklich kein „Bedroht“-Beleg ist; die einzige weitere Erwähnung steht in der Hauptversammlungs-Einladung in der Lebenslauf-Passage eines Aufsichtsrats (Beiratsmandat bei einem KI-Wagniskapitalgeber) und betrifft das Geschäft von NextDecade gar nicht. Auffällig ist zudem, was fehlt: Das sonst branchenübliche Nachfrage-Argument „Strombedarf von Rechenzentren“ taucht in keiner der geprüften Unterlagen auf — die Wörter „data center“ und „hyperscale“ kommen dort kein einziges Mal vor.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-30 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-K 2025-02-28 · DEF 14A 2026-04-23
Rated on July 31, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 38.1% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Hold
- Analyst Ratings
- 2
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.10 | -2.10 – -2.10 | 0 | -107.5% | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.07 | -0.02 – 0.15 | 1,741 | 103.1% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | -0.39 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | 6 | -572 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.80 | 233.30 | 0 | – | – | -64 | -569 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.25 | -52.80 | 8 | 754.90 | 844.20 | -9 | -704 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.34 | -409.10 | 0 | – | – | -69 | -839 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.29 | 26.60 | 0 | – | – | -4 | -736 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.42 | -152.50 | 0 | – | – | -76 | -1,434 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.89 | -454.80 | 0 | -100.00 | – | -21 | -2,292 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.51 | -50.00 | 0 | – | – | -111 | -1,288 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.25 | -8.70 | 0 | – | – | -17 | -998 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.10 | 0 | 113 | 118 |
| 2017 | 0 | -36 | -35 | -0.35 | -13 | 103 | 116 |
| 2018 | 0 | -43 | -42 | -0.39 | -23 | 149 | 169 |
| 2019 | 0 | -35 | -36 | -0.33 | -41 | 188 | 221 |
| 2020 | 0 | -22 | -14 | -0.12 | -26 | 173 | 202 |
| 2021 | 0 | -20 | -22 | -0.18 | -18 | 188 | 222 |
| 2022 | 0 | -54 | -60 | -0.46 | -40 | 257 | 312 |
| 2023 | 0 | -123 | -162 | -0.83 | -74 | 288 | 3,324 |
| 2024 | 0 | -171 | -62 | -0.24 | -96 | 378 | 6,404 |
| 2025 | 0 | -226 | -306 | -1.17 | -169 | 95 | 12,426 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
As of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 were 74.0 percent complete (engineering 99.1, procurement 97.8, construction 58.9 percent), Train 3 50.4 percent, Train 4 15.5 percent and Train 5 9.4 percent. Phase 1 is ahead of the guaranteed schedule, Trains 4 and 5 are on plan, and the timeline is unchanged from the prior quarter: first gas in the second half of 2026, first LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027. Sold are 25.3 MTPA across 14 counterparties with a weighted 19.5 years remaining; the expected fixed fees from the 23.75 MTPA of Henry Hub-linked contracts run to roughly $3.0 billion a year. Bechtel builds at a fixed price with guaranteed performance.
The annual report (Form 10-K) for 2025 puts the entitlement at up to about 20.8 percent of the available cash distributions from Phase 1 — and makes clear in the same sentence that the majority of that share is paid only after the equity partners have received their agreed distribution threshold and any deficit payments from earlier periods. At Train 4 it is 40 percent (rising to 60), at Train 5 50 percent (rising to 70). The balance sheet nevertheless consolidates 100 percent: as of December 31, 2025, $12.127 billion of the $12.426 billion of total assets and $8.617 billion of the $10.125 billion of liabilities sat in the joint ventures. Every resolution there also requires a majority of both classes of managers.
Equity attributable to NextDecade stockholders fell from $377.641 million (December 31, 2024) via $95.338 million (December 31, 2025) to minus $57.280 million as of June 30, 2026, roughly minus $0.22 per share. The accumulated deficit rose in that same half-year from $759.957 million to $961.789 million. Non-controlling interests reached $2,873.882 million, or 102 percent of the entire reported equity of $2,816.602 million. A price-to-book ratio can no longer be formed from that.
In the first half of 2026 NextDecade incurred $434.244 million of interest (prior-year period $192.615 million); $264.220 million of it was capitalized as construction cost (60.8 percent) and only $170.024 million appeared in the income statement — against zero revenue. Just $47.250 million was paid in cash, and another $36.502 million was added to the debt in kind. Operating cash flow was minus $128.016 million after minus $169.397 million for all of 2025; liquidity fell from $707.088 million to $499.569 million, of which only $83.678 million is unrestricted.
The project debt sits without recourse to NextDecade in the subsidiaries; no principal falls due from 2026 through 2029, and only roughly $4.49 billion in 2030. The refinancing is running to plan: $3.5 billion of notes in four tranches on July 2, 2026, with more than $6.4 billion of the original $11.1 billion of Phase 1 construction loans refinanced (as of July 29, 2026). Global Infrastructure Partners (BlackRock), GIC, Mubadala and TotalEnergies keep paying in — TotalEnergies alone roughly $377.5 million in the first half of 2026. On the other side: the new $1.0 billion loan at 7.05 percent at a new level above the project company, with interest added to the debt by default until after June 17, 2029; the corporate Series B loan at 13.50 percent (mandatorily half in cash from March 31, 2027); and the net assets of the subsidiaries tied to conditions, while the parent company held zero current assets as of December 31, 2025.
All material permits for Trains 1 through 5 are in hand, and FERC reaffirmed them in August 2025. Since December 2025, however, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit has again been reviewing the remand order; the case is pending with no decision date, and the petitioners are not named in the report. The quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026 reports no other legal proceedings. On the data: as a project developer without revenue, NextDecade publishes no quarterly results releases (8-K, Item 2.02) — the only such filing in its corporate history dates from July 28, 2017. Metrics from data feeds come up empty for want of profit, revenue and positive equity.
NextDecade is building one of the largest LNG plants in the United States on the Brownsville Ship Channel for roughly $31.4 billion — as of June 30, 2026 Trains 1 and 2 are 74.0 percent complete, 25.3 million tonnes of annual capacity are sold for a weighted 19.5 years, and the schedule is holding. Almost all of it has been paid for with other people's money: the consolidated total assets of roughly $15.2 billion sit largely in joint ventures whose Phase 1 distributions entitle NextDecade to no more than about 20.8 percent — and the majority of that only after the financing partners. Equity attributable to its own shareholders tipped from $95.338 million to minus $57.280 million in the first half of 2026, interest reached $434.244 million in six months against zero revenue, and $128.016 million flowed out of operations. Anyone buying here is buying a subordinated share of distributions that cannot begin before 2027 at the earliest. Not investment advice.
- NEXT reached our research list through the Reddit hype watch run of our in-house stock scanner, cut-off date July 31, 2026 — that is, through the sheer frequency of mentions in investor forums. That is a reason to read the original documents, not a quality signal. Classic metric screens do not grip here anyway: no profit means no P/E, no revenue means no P/S, and without positive equity there is no meaningful P/B. The fundamental data shows a Piotroski score of 1 out of 9, an Altman Z of −0.11 and an equity ratio of 0.8 percent as of July 31, 2026.
- Recency gate: the most recent periodic report is the quarterly report (Form 10-Q) as of June 30, 2026, filed July 30, 2026; it has been evaluated. There is no same-day results release (8-K, Item 2.02) — and that is structural: NextDecade has filed exactly one 8-K carrying Item 2.02 in its entire corporate history, on July 28, 2017 in the course of the SPAC merger. As a project developer without revenue the company publishes no quarterly results releases through EDGAR. Also filed on July 30, 2026 and evaluated: the registration statement S-8 covering 5,000,000 employee shares. Every filing since the annual report was reviewed individually: 8-K of April 15, 2026, DEF 14A of April 23, 2026, S-3ASR of May 13, 2026, DEFA14A of May 19, 2026, 8-K of June 3, 2026, SCHEDULE 13D of June 10, 2026, 8-K of June 18, 2026, 8-K of July 2, 2026. No Form 25, no Form 15, no 424B*.
- Valuation figures are dated and evergreen: the only price documented in a filing is $8.50 of May 12, 2026 (cover page of the S-3ASR), giving a market value of roughly $2.26 billion; as of July 31, 2026 it is $6.73 and roughly $1.79 billion (266,185,433 x $6.73). The feed market value ($1.68 billion) uses the share count of May 8, 2026 and the prior close and deviates from the same arithmetic by less than one percent. Traps to avoid: the 2024 consolidated net income of $277.447 million was a loss of $61.751 million for shareholders, because $339.198 million was allocated to the partners; the $3.5 billion notes offering of July 2, 2026 is a refinancing and not additional debt; and the 19,730,742 shares registered on May 13, 2026 are a resale shelf for existing holders from which NextDecade receives not a dollar.
About the Company
NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States. The company constructs and develops natural gas liquefaction and export facilities located in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas; and a carbon capture and storage project at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. It is also involved in the sale of LNG. NextDecade Corporation was founded in 2010 and is based in Houston, Texas.
| Employees | 360 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Houston, TX |
| Address | 1000 Louisiana Street, 77002 Houston, United States |
| Phone | 713 574 1880 |
| Website | next-decade.com |
| IPO Date | 4. Jun 2015 |
| ISIN | US65342K1051 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew K. Schatzman | Chairman & CEO | 1966 |
| Tarik Skeik | Chief Operating Officer | 1981 |
| Vera De Brito de Gyarfas | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1967 |
| Michael Reed Mott | Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation | 1961 |
| John D. Zuklic | Chief Financial Officer | 1968 |
| Luke Boylston | Chief Accounting Officer | 1990 |
| Raquel Couri | Executive Vice President of Human Resources & Administration | – |
| Megan Light | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| James MacTaggart | Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Ariel Handler | Executive VP of Commercial & Carbon Solutions | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10. Jul 2026 | de Gyarfas Vera | General Counsel | Other | 51,935 | 7.99 | 414,961 |
| 10. Jul 2026 | Schatzman Matthew K | Chief Executive Officer | Other | 266,531 | 7.99 | 2,129,583 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.