Nebius Group N.V.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The core business carries real weight: the AI cloud segment grew 841 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and swung from -$27.4 million to +$174.0 million on an adjusted basis, cost of revenue fell from 49 to 26 percent of revenue within a single year, there is no going-concern flag, and the balance sheet still showed a net cash position of roughly $847.8 million as of March 31, 2026. But every single profitable period since the 2024 restructuring came exclusively from one-off gains (the Russia exit, the Toloka sale, twice from the very same ClickHouse revaluation) - the actual cloud business's operating loss kept growing instead, most recently to $128.0 million per quarter. Add to that the founder's voting control of roughly 52 percent against only about 11 percent economic interest, and a customer concentration of up to $27 billion tied to a single customer the company itself admits having only "limited experience" delivering for. As long as the operating loss isn't shrinking and the governance and concentration risks remain, that's yellow, not green.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Nebius shows two faces: a core business that genuinely impresses, with 841 percent growth and a swing to positive adjusted margins - and a group balance sheet whose reported profit, in every single profitable period so far, came from revaluations or stake sales while the operating loss kept growing. Add to that voting control of roughly 52 percent resting on just an 11 percent economic stake, and a concentration risk of up to $27 billion tied to a single customer. Not investment advice.
Core business growth
The AI cloud segment grew 841 percent to $389.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 and swung from -$27.4 million to +$174.0 million on an adjusted basis - real operating progress, not an accounting trick.
Earnings quality
Every profitable period since the 2024 restructuring has been driven by one-off gains (revaluations, stake sales) - the operating loss instead kept growing in absolute dollars, most recently to $128.0 million per quarter, worse than a year earlier.
Governance & control
Founder Arkady Volozh controls roughly 52 percent of the vote while holding only about 11 percent of the economic interest (as of March 31, 2026); as a "Controlled Company," Nebius is exempt from key Nasdaq governance rules.
Customer concentration
A single customer, Meta Platforms, could account for up to $27 billion under a March 13, 2026 agreement; Nebius itself admits "limited experience" delivering contracts this large and this long.
Balance sheet & capital structure
Still a net cash position of roughly $847.8 million as of March 31, 2026, but the debt buildup is rapid: the first quarter of 2026 alone added $4,337.5 million from convertible notes plus $2,000 million from NVIDIA, followed in July 2026 by the first secured credit facility.
Valuation
A price-to-sales ratio of roughly 54 (data as of July 24/27, 2026) already prices in a great deal of future growth; a P/E of roughly 72.5 is barely meaningful given the one-off-driven profits.
Worth Noting
This analysis was prompted by issue 24 of the German newsletter "Hot Stocks Europe," dated November 28, 2025, which named Nebius a top performer of 2025 in hindsight (a price run from EUR 44.50 to EUR 118 on the thinly traded German secondary market under the legacy YDX ticker) - not a source for any company figure in this analysis.
Data as of: balance-sheet and results figures as of December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026); price, market cap, and analyst consensus data as of July 24/27, 2026. Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not a buy argument.
Not to be confused: the German secondary-market price under YDX in euros (a Yandex-era leftover) and the primary Nasdaq price under NBIS in US dollars are two different, barely liquidity-comparable listings of the same stock.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NBIS since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 73.90 $ to 286.70 $ · Last price: 218.00 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Internet Content & Information
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius Group N.V. NBIS | 48.1 | – | 50.6 | 74.3 | – | – | 131.7 |
| Alphabet Inc Class A GOOGL | 4,238.0 | 26.1 | 12.3 | 60.9 | 36.1 | 15.1 | 39.6 |
| Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG | 4,226.7 | 25.7 | 12.3 | 60.9 | 36.1 | 15.1 | 37.9 |
| Meta Platforms Inc. META | 1,737.1 | 25.4 | 14.9 | 81.8 | 40.6 | 22.2 | -11.8 |
| Spotify Technology SA SPOT | 108.7 | 39.3 | 23.1 | 32.8 | 15.8 | 9.7 | -25.2 |
| Reddit, Inc. RDDT | 31.1 | 44.2 | 35.5 | 91.4 | 27.6 | 69.4 | -42.7 |
| Baidu Inc BIDU | 30.5 | – | 51.2 | 40.9 | 10.0 | -3.0 | -28.5 |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group TME | 12.8 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 44.3 | 30.4 | 15.9 | -68.5 |
| Match Group Inc MTCH | 10.3 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 74.9 | 27.4 | 0.2 | 19.1 |
| Median of companies shown | 48.1 | 25.7 | 14.9 | 60.9 | 29.0 | 15.1 | -11.8 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,234 | 209 | 111 | 0.34 | 413 | 1,259 | 1,864 |
| 2017 | 1,629 | 222 | 159 | 0.42 | 412 | 1,436 | 2,264 |
| 2018 | 1,832 | 299 | 660 | 2.02 | 406 | 2,574 | 3,728 |
| 2019 | 2,826 | 396 | 204 | 0.63 | 716 | 3,144 | 4,696 |
| 2020 | 2,946 | 211 | 333 | 0.94 | 438 | 4,366 | 6,930 |
| 2021 | 4,759 | -177 | -196 | -0.54 | 125 | 3,462 | 6,913 |
| 2022 | 14 | -158 | 746 | 1.81 | 697 | 4,246 | 8,278 |
| 2023 | 21 | -328 | 241 | 0.65 | 830 | 3,294 | 8,755 |
| 2024 | 118 | -441 | -641 | -2.28 | 246 | 3,254 | 3,549 |
| 2025 | 530 | -596 | 102 | 0.40 | 385 | 4,613 | 12,450 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023: Q2 | 0.47 | 67.90 | 5 | -99.80 | 3,751.10 | 136 | -148 |
| 2023: Q3 | 0.23 | -88.10 | 5 | -99.80 | 1,686.00 | 176 | -96 |
| 2023: Q4 | -0.21 | -216.70 | 6 | -99.70 | -1,185.70 | 190 | -309 |
| 2024: Q1 | 0.36 | 125.00 | 11 | 121.60 | 1,159.30 | 146 | -464 |
| 2024: Q2 | -1.89 | -502.10 | 12 | 157.40 | -4,582.60 | – | – |
| 2024: Q3 | -0.33 | -243.50 | 43 | 766.00 | -217.60 | -56 | -228 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.56 | – | 38 | 498.40 | -351.70 | -75 | -492 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.48 | -233.30 | 55 | 389.40 | -205.40 | -75 | -492 |
| 2025: Q2 | 2.44 | – | 105 | 768.60 | 556.00 | -172 | -682 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.47 | – | 146 | 237.40 | -81.90 | -80 | -1,036 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.99 | – | 228 | 504.00 | -109.60 | 834 | -1,222 |
| 2026: Q1 | 2.01 | – | 399 | 621.50 | 155.70 | 2,258 | -215 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 4 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Breakout & Setup
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.52 | -6.41 – 0.49 | 3,343 | – | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | -5.65 | -15.31 – 5.27 | 12,065 | -51.3% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available.
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 239.7%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year no data
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -15.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -343.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 68.6%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 2.6 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 1,759 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -5.5%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers failed
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
3/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -9.0%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 377.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 377.2%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 5
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 2.2%
- ROCE > 15% -5.5%
- Expected return > 10% 340.6%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Boroditsky Marc | Chief Revenue Officer | Sell | 2,000 | 208.63 | 417,260 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Boroditsky Marc | Chief Revenue Officer | Other | 2,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Boroditsky Marc | Chief Revenue Officer | Sell | 5,000 | 209.26 | 1,046,300 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Boroditsky Marc | Chief Revenue Officer | Other | 5,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Weigand Matthew Robert | Director | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Ryan Charles E | Director | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Grimme Arne | Director | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Radinsky Kira | Director | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Bunina Elena | Director | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Nave Ophir | COO | Other | 1,352 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
- Employees
- 1,543
- Headquarters
- Schiphol, Netherlands
- Address
- Schiphol Boulevard 165, 1118 BG Schiphol, Netherlands
- Phone
- 31 847 734 2000
- Website
- nebius.com
- IPO Date
- 05/24/2011
- ISIN
- NL0009805522
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Arkady Volozh | Founder, CEO & Non-Independent Executive Director | 1964 |
| Maria del Dado Alonso Sanchez | Chief Financial Officer | – |
| Ophir Nave | COO & Non-Independent Executive Director | 1970 |
| Danila Shtan | Chief Technology Officer | – |
| Neil A. Doshi | VP & Head of Investor Relations | – |
| Attorney Yael Almog | General Counsel | 1968 |
| Tom Blackwell | Chief Communications Officer | – |
| Lindsey Irvine | Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Roman Chernin | Chief Business Officer | – |
| Elena Bunina | Head of Science and Education & Non-Independent Non-Executive Director | 1977 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.