Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
The core business carries real weight: the AI cloud segment grew 841 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and swung from -$27.4 million to +$174.0 million on an adjusted basis, cost of revenue fell from 49 to 26 percent of revenue within a single year, there is no going-concern flag, and the balance sheet still showed a net cash position of roughly $847.8 million as of March 31, 2026. But every single profitable period since the 2024 restructuring came exclusively from one-off gains (the Russia exit, the Toloka sale, twice from the very same ClickHouse revaluation) - the actual cloud business's operating loss kept growing instead, most recently to $128.0 million per quarter. Add to that the founder's voting control of roughly 52 percent against only about 11 percent economic interest, and a customer concentration of up to $27 billion tied to a single customer the company itself admits having only "limited experience" delivering for. As long as the operating loss isn't shrinking and the governance and concentration risks remain, that's yellow, not green.
symbol.quality_note
German newsletter "Hot Stocks Europe" celebrated Nebius in hindsight as a top performer of 2025 - from EUR 44.50 to a peak of EUR 118 on the thinly traded German secondary market. We read the annual report (Form 20-F) and the latest quarterly report (Form 6-K) instead: revenue grew 684 percent to $399 million in the first quarter of 2026, and the company reported net income of $621 million - almost entirely from the revaluation of one stake, while the actual AI cloud business's operating loss grew to $128 million. Not investment advice, just a look behind two very different numbers wearing the same name.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 27, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NBIS since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 190.40 $ — 59% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
–Not yet rated — we only show a category once an SEC-backed file with at least two cited passages is available. How the Rating Is Built
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 35.6% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 3
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.14 | -4.32 – 1.18 | 3,389 | – | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | -4.87 | -16.79 – 1.79 | 11,452 | 45.2% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.67 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023: Q2 | 0.47 | 67.90 | 5 | -99.80 | 3,751.10 | 136 | -148 |
| 2023: Q3 | 0.23 | -88.10 | 5 | -99.80 | 1,686.00 | 176 | -96 |
| 2023: Q4 | -0.21 | -216.70 | 6 | -99.70 | -1,185.70 | 190 | -309 |
| 2024: Q1 | 0.36 | 125.00 | 11 | 121.60 | 1,159.30 | 146 | -464 |
| 2024: Q2 | -1.89 | -502.10 | 12 | 157.40 | -4,582.60 | – | – |
| 2024: Q3 | -0.33 | -243.50 | 43 | 766.00 | -217.60 | -56 | -228 |
| 2024: Q4 | -0.56 | – | 38 | 498.40 | -351.70 | -75 | -492 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.48 | -233.30 | 55 | 389.40 | -205.40 | -75 | -492 |
| 2025: Q2 | 2.44 | – | 105 | 768.60 | 556.00 | -172 | -682 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.47 | – | 146 | 237.40 | -81.90 | -80 | -1,036 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.99 | – | 228 | 504.00 | -109.60 | 834 | -1,222 |
| 2026: Q1 | 2.01 | – | 399 | 621.50 | 155.70 | 2,258 | -215 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,234 | 209 | 111 | 0.34 | 413 | 1,259 | 1,864 |
| 2017 | 1,629 | 222 | 159 | 0.42 | 412 | 1,436 | 2,264 |
| 2018 | 1,832 | 299 | 660 | 2.02 | 406 | 2,574 | 3,728 |
| 2019 | 2,826 | 396 | 204 | 0.63 | 716 | 3,144 | 4,696 |
| 2020 | 2,946 | 211 | 333 | 0.94 | 438 | 4,366 | 6,930 |
| 2021 | 4,759 | -177 | -196 | -0.54 | 125 | 3,462 | 6,913 |
| 2022 | 14 | -158 | 746 | 1.81 | 697 | 4,246 | 8,278 |
| 2023 | 21 | -328 | 241 | 0.65 | 830 | 3,294 | 8,755 |
| 2024 | 118 | -441 | -641 | -2.28 | 246 | 3,254 | 3,549 |
| 2025 | 530 | -596 | 102 | 0.40 | 385 | 4,613 | 12,450 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The AI cloud segment grew 841 percent to $389.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 and swung from -$27.4 million to +$174.0 million on an adjusted basis - real operating progress, not an accounting trick.
Every profitable period since the 2024 restructuring has been driven by one-off gains (revaluations, stake sales) - the operating loss instead kept growing in absolute dollars, most recently to $128.0 million per quarter, worse than a year earlier.
Founder Arkady Volozh controls roughly 52 percent of the vote while holding only about 11 percent of the economic interest (as of March 31, 2026); as a "Controlled Company," Nebius is exempt from key Nasdaq governance rules.
A single customer, Meta Platforms, could account for up to $27 billion under a March 13, 2026 agreement; Nebius itself admits "limited experience" delivering contracts this large and this long.
Still a net cash position of roughly $847.8 million as of March 31, 2026, but the debt buildup is rapid: the first quarter of 2026 alone added $4,337.5 million from convertible notes plus $2,000 million from NVIDIA, followed in July 2026 by the first secured credit facility.
A price-to-sales ratio of roughly 54 (data as of July 24/27, 2026) already prices in a great deal of future growth; a P/E of roughly 72.5 is barely meaningful given the one-off-driven profits.
Nebius shows two faces: a core business that genuinely impresses, with 841 percent growth and a swing to positive adjusted margins - and a group balance sheet whose reported profit, in every single profitable period so far, came from revaluations or stake sales while the operating loss kept growing. Add to that voting control of roughly 52 percent resting on just an 11 percent economic stake, and a concentration risk of up to $27 billion tied to a single customer. Not investment advice.
- This analysis was prompted by issue 24 of the German newsletter "Hot Stocks Europe," dated November 28, 2025, which named Nebius a top performer of 2025 in hindsight (a price run from EUR 44.50 to EUR 118 on the thinly traded German secondary market under the legacy YDX ticker) - not a source for any company figure in this analysis.
- Data as of: balance-sheet and results figures as of December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026); price, market cap, and analyst consensus data as of July 24/27, 2026. Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not a buy argument.
- Not to be confused: the German secondary-market price under YDX in euros (a Yandex-era leftover) and the primary Nasdaq price under NBIS in US dollars are two different, barely liquidity-comparable listings of the same stock.
About the Company
| Employees | 1,543 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Schiphol, Netherlands |
| Address | Schiphol Boulevard 165, 1118 BG Schiphol, Netherlands |
| Phone | 31 847 734 2000 |
| Website | nebius.com |
| IPO Date | 24. May 2011 |
| ISIN | NL0009805522 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Arkady Volozh | Founder, CEO & Non-Independent Executive Director | 1964 |
| Maria del Dado Alonso Sanchez | Chief Financial Officer | – |
| Ophir Nave | COO & Non-Independent Executive Director | 1970 |
| Danila Shtan | Chief Technology Officer | – |
| Neil A. Doshi | VP & Head of Investor Relations | – |
| Tom Blackwell | Chief Communications Officer | – |
| Daniel Bounds | Chief Marketing Officer | – |
| Roman Chernin | Chief Business Officer | – |
| Elena Bunina | Head of Science and Education & Non-Independent Non-Executive Director | 1977 |
| Andrey Korolenko | Chief Product & Infrastructure Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.