Millrose Properties, Inc.
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today is betting that the U.S. housing market stays stable, that Lennar and the new builder customers keep exercising their options, and that diversification keeps lowering the dependence on the former parent step by step — against the risk that a downturn hits option walk-aways and unappraised land values at the same time. Whoever waits checks three spots in every quarterly report (10-Q): Lennar's share of revenue (does it keep falling toward 60 percent?), takedown proceeds (does the conveyor belt stay above new investments?) and the dividend-to-AFFO ratio (does it stay below 100 percent?). The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
MRP is not a cash-flow miracle but a young land-banking REIT with an honest price tag: at a capital-recycling machine the FCF/market-cap scanner metric measures throughput, not free money — what is real is a roughly 10 percent dividend yield below book value and a predictable fee model earning 9.2 percent on capital, set against a 72-to-84-percent Lennar lump, an external manager paid on total assets, founder rights without founder capital, and book values without an independent appraisal. Whoever buys the stock buys the construction — not the coupon. Not investment advice.
Business model & start
The largest listed land-banking platform in the U.S. (143,347 homesites, $9.2 billion, 30 states) with predictable option fees earning a weighted 9.2 percent return; profitable from the February 7, 2025 spin-off onward — $404.8 million of net income and $427.9 million of AFFO in the 2025 stub year (10-K 2025).
Scanner metric FCF/market cap
The top rank (15th, as of July 18, 2026) is a mismeasurement of the business model: the $3.67 billion of operating cash flow (2025) contains the homesite sales while the purchases ($5.72 billion) sit in investing cash flow; unrestricted cash as of 03/31/2026: $49.3 million (10-K 2025, 10-Q Q1 2026).
Dividend & valuation
Five raises in a row to $0.76 per quarter (annualized roughly a 10 percent yield) at 0.85 times book and 10 to 11 times earnings (data as of July 8, 2026) — but 2025 paid out $2.55 per share, more than was earned ($2.44), and the spin-off book values were never independently appraised (10-K 2025, Item 1A).
Customer concentration & founder rights
84 percent of 2025 revenue (Q1 2026: 72 percent) from Lennar, which after the November 2025 exchange offer holds barely any shares yet keeps capital priority, the most-favored-pricing clause, the manager veto and an approval right over debt beyond 1:1; 51 percent of the lots in three states (10-K 2025).
External management
No employees of its own; the management fee of 1.25 percent of Tangible Assets ($87.8 million in 2025, $28.2 million in Q1 2026) rewards balance-sheet growth over earnings per share; the relationship is "contractual, not fiduciary" per the 10-K, termination without cause only against a fee and with Lennar approving the successor (10-K 2025, Items 1/1A).
Financing & buffers
Moderate leverage of roughly 0.42 times equity ($2.46 billion of debt, maturities 2030/2032) and $960.3 million of non-refundable builder deposits as a cushion — but only $49.3 million of unrestricted cash against a quarterly dividend of roughly $126 million, and the model hangs on builders exercising their options (10-Q Q1 2026, 10-K 2025).
Worth Noting
MRP made the research list via rank 15 in our in-house FCF/market-cap scanner (as of July 18, 2026; scanner data as of July 8, 2026) — the analysis deliberately shows why this metric is no buy signal for capital-recycling models such as land banks (analogous to banks and loan-book companies).
REIT particularity: what matters for payout capacity is net income, AFFO and the return on invested capital — not operating cash flow, which at Millrose contains the proceeds from homesite sales while the land purchases sit in investing cash flow.
Price and valuation figures dated July 8, 2026 (about $29.90 per share, roughly $5.0 billion market cap); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MRP since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 26.60 $ to 34.60 $ · Last price: 28.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: REIT - Residential
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millrose Properties, Inc. MRP | 4.4 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 85.3 | 85.2 | – | -6.8 |
| Equity Residential EQR | 24.9 | 26.2 | 14.4 | 62.3 | 27.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Essex Property Trust Inc ESS | 18.8 | 32.6 | 18.5 | 68.8 | 35.2 | 7.1 | 5.8 |
| Invitation Homes Inc INVH | 16.0 | 29.6 | 14.1 | 56.3 | 24.3 | 4.2 | -4.4 |
| Sun Communities Inc SUI | 14.8 | – | 24.4 | 53.7 | 13.4 | -27.9 | -7.4 |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. MAA | 14.4 | 37.9 | 16.1 | 58.4 | 26.6 | 0.8 | -9.1 |
| UDR Inc UDR | 12.7 | 24.4 | 12.2 | 66.6 | 22.0 | 2.4 | -3.8 |
| American Homes 4 Rent AMH | 12.5 | 26.1 | 13.2 | 56.7 | 25.1 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc ELS | 12.2 | 31.2 | 19.9 | 53.7 | 36.9 | 6.8 | 4.3 |
| Median of companies shown | 14.4 | 27.9 | 14.4 | 58.4 | 26.6 | 4.1 | -3.8 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0 | -193 | -144 | -1.07 | -329 | 7,629 | 8,022 |
| 2023 | 0 | -210 | -210 | -1.55 | -865 | 4,459 | 4,744 |
| 2024 | 0 | -246 | -246 | -1.48 | -917 | 5,158 | 5,465 |
| 2025 | 600 | 486 | 380 | 2.29 | 3,673 | 5,856 | 9,258 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -2.71 | – | -348 | – | – | -1,177 | -1,177 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.39 | – | 83 | – | 48.10 | 21 | -838 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.68 | -61.20 | 149 | -33.60 | 75.70 | 109 | 109 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.63 | 260.10 | 179 | 44.90 | 58.60 | 123 | 123 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.74 | – | 190 | – | 64.50 | 3,419 | 3,419 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.74 | 89.70 | 195 | 135.70 | 63.00 | 797 | 797 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.76 | 11.80 | 197 | 32.10 | 63.90 | 886 | 886 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 11 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Value & GARP
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 3.11 | 3.08 – 3.14 | 812 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3.26 | 3.24 – 3.27 | 874 | 4.8% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
With these assumptions (discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%), no growth rate between -20.0% and 60.0% per year explains today’s market value — the reverse calculation yields no meaningful figure here.
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $5.23B |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.44B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | – |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | – |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 18.07.2026 gegen die Geschäftsberichte (10-K) für die Geschäftsjahre 2025 (eingereicht 02.03.2026) und 2024 (31.03.2025) sowie die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Millrose Properties findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Beide 10-K enthalten im Risikoteil (Item 1A) ausschließlich denselben generischen KI-Risikofaktor („Artificial intelligence (‚AI‘) and other machine learning techniques could increase, accelerate, or amplify competitive, operational, legal and regulatory risks to our business in ways that we cannot predict“) — eine Vorlagen-Floskel ohne jeden konkreten Bezug zum eigenen Geschäftsmodell (Land Banking, Homesite-Optionsverträge werden im gesamten Absatz nicht erwähnt). Alle vier 10-Q enthalten null Treffer für „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“ oder „AI“. Weder KI-Umsatzquelle (nicht „verkauft“) noch dokumentierter operativer KI-Einsatz (nicht „nutzt“) noch ein konkretes, geschäftsmodellspezifisches KI-Risiko (nicht „bedroht“) — nach Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund: „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-03-02 · 10-K 2025-03-31 · 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-10-23 · 10-Q 2025-07-31 · 10-Q 2025-05-14
Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 7.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 7.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") no data
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion no data
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 4.2 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 1,967 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 5.4%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
3/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 20.7%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 19.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 4.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight –
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% 6.5%
- ROCE > 15% 5.4%
- Expected return > 10% 118.0%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gorson Matthew B. | Director | Buy | 3,000 | 28.80 | 86,400 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Migoya Carlos A. | Director | Buy | 1,000 | 29.18 | 29,180 |
The company
About the Company
Millrose Properties, Inc. ist die führende Plattform für Baugrundstücksoptionen für Wohnungsbauunternehmen.
- Headquarters
- Miami, FL
- Address
- 600 Brickell Avenue, 33131 Miami, United States
- Phone
- 212 782 3841
- Website
- millroseproperties.com
- IPO Date
- 02/07/2025
- ISIN
- US6011371027
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Lewis Richman | CEO & President | 1972 |
| Garett Rosenblum | CFO & Treasurer | 1974 |
| Robert Nitkin | Chief Operating Officer | 1988 |
| Adil Pasha | Chief Technology Officer | 1993 |
| Rachel Jade Presa | General Counsel & Secretary | 1980 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 09/01/2026 Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/05/2026 Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/04/2026 Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.