MGM Resorts International (MGM)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Buying today is less a bet on Bellagio or Aria than on an arithmetic: that the resorts' segment profit grows faster than the contractually rising rent — and that Macau and the online business keep covering the softness on the Strip while roughly $2.1 billion flows to Osaka. Whoever waits watches three lines in every filing: how Las Vegas Strip segment profit develops (last down 8 percent to $2,857.9 million); how much survives the rent at the Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA line (last $2,425.6 million); and how quickly the buyback is turned back up (last $90 million a quarter after $494 million). Since June 1, 2026 a fourth line has been added that has nothing to do with operations: the largest shareholder's non-binding cash proposal of $48.30 per share, to which the MGM board had filed no response as of July 24, 2026. It may lead to an agreement, it may get richer, it may vanish — which is exactly why it does not improve the picture, it adds uncertainty. The lease structure remains the dominant risk, the pending proposal comes on top. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Bellagio, Aria, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand: MGM Resorts runs the most famous addresses on the Las Vegas Strip — it does not own them. It sold the real estate and rents it back. The filings to the U.S. securities regulator, the SEC, show what that costs: the resorts produced $5.2 billion of segment earnings in 2025, $1.8 billion went out as cash rent to the landlords, and on $17.5 billion of revenue only $206 million of net income was left — down from $1,142 million in 2023. Over five years MGM spent $9.4 billion buying back its own stock while equity melted from $6.07 billion to $2.43 billion. And since June 1, 2026 a non-binding cash proposal of $48.30 per share is on the table: the largest shareholder, publisher People Incorporated with 26.1 percent, wants to buy every share it does not already own — with no response from the MGM board on file as of the editorial cut-off. Not investment advice — just the question of who owns the house the game is played in.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 23, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at MGM since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 44.60 $ — 70% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIGeprüft am 23.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 (eingereicht 11.02.2026), den 10-K für 2024 (18.02.2025) sowie die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q: 30.04.2025, 30.07.2025, 29.10.2025, 29.04.2026). Belegt ist ein operativer KI-Einsatz ohne KI-Umsatzquelle: MGM Resorts beschreibt im Item 1 („Business“, Abschnitt Responsible Gaming) beider Geschäftsberichte ein produktiv eingesetztes Werkzeug auf Basis von maschinellem Lernen, das im Rahmen der Plattform LeoSafePlay Risikoprofile für gefährdete Spielerinnen und Spieler erstellt; ergänzend nennt der Konzern „advanced data and analytics capabilities“ als Grundlage seines personalisierten Direktmarketings über das Kundenbindungsprogramm MGM Rewards. Eine KI-Umsatzquelle wird nirgends beschrieben — der Umsatz 2025 von 17.537,7 Mio. US-Dollar stammt laut Segmentbericht aus Casino, Hotel, Gastronomie, Unterhaltung und dem Online-Glücksspiel von MGM Digital (LeoVegas), nicht aus KI-Produkten oder -Diensten. Damit scheidet „verkauft“ aus. „Bedroht“ scheidet ebenfalls aus: Künstliche Intelligenz taucht in den Risikofaktoren (Item 1A) beider Geschäftsberichte ausschließlich als Verstärker des allgemeinen Cybersicherheitsrisikos auf („The rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies amplifies these concerns.“) — eine Boilerplate-Formulierung ohne konkreten Bezug zum eigenen Geschäftsmodell, die nach dem Kriterienkatalog kein Bedroht-Beleg ist. Nach der Vorrang-Regel bleibt es bei „nutzt“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We have also invested heavily in technology and in the development of algorithms that detect early signs among players that can indicate a risk for unsound gaming. Within the framework of LeoSafePlay, we have launched a tool based on machine learning and algorithms that help in the creation of risk profiles for customers who are at risk of developing a gaming problem."
Wir haben außerdem stark in Technologie und in die Entwicklung von Algorithmen investiert, die frühe Anzeichen bei Spielern erkennen, welche auf ein Risiko für problematisches Spielverhalten hindeuten können. Im Rahmen von LeoSafePlay haben wir ein Werkzeug eingeführt, das auf maschinellem Lernen und Algorithmen beruht und dabei hilft, Risikoprofile für Kunden zu erstellen, bei denen die Gefahr besteht, ein Spielproblem zu entwickeln.
„The rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies amplifies these concerns."
Die rasche Entwicklung und die zunehmende Verbreitung von Technologien der künstlichen Intelligenz verstärken diese Bedenken.
„Our advanced data and analytics capabilities underpin our direct marketing, enabling us to segment customers based on preferences, behaviors, and their overall value to the organization."
Unsere fortgeschrittenen Daten- und Analysefähigkeiten sind die Grundlage unseres Direktmarketings; sie ermöglichen es uns, Kunden nach Vorlieben, Verhalten und ihrem Gesamtwert für das Unternehmen zu segmentieren.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-11 · 10-K 2025-02-18 · 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 10-Q 2025-10-29 · 10-Q 2025-07-30 · 10-Q 2025-04-30
Rated on July 23, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 13.4% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 21
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.87 | 1.61 – 2.35 | 17,701 | -43.4% | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2.04 | 1.18 – 3.14 | 17,952 | 9.1% | 15 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.53 | -42.90 | 4,347 | -1.40 | 3.60 | 672 | 268 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.51 | -23.50 | 4,277 | -2.40 | 3.50 | 547 | 319 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.18 | -70.10 | 4,405 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 646 | 377 |
| 2025: Q3 | -1.05 | -272.10 | 4,251 | 1.60 | -6.70 | 681 | 405 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.11 | 111.10 | 4,605 | 6.00 | 6.40 | 832 | 536 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.48 | -5.90 | 4,455 | 4.20 | 2.80 | 568 | 413 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.11 | 516.70 | 4,451 | 1.00 | 6.60 | 559 | 317 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,455 | 2,080 | 1,101 | 1.92 | 1,534 | 6,220 | 28,173 |
| 2017 | 10,797 | 1,713 | 1,952 | 3.37 | 2,206 | 7,577 | 29,160 |
| 2018 | 11,763 | 1,469 | 467 | 0.85 | 1,723 | 6,512 | 30,211 |
| 2019 | 12,900 | 3,940 | 2,049 | 3.88 | 1,810 | 7,727 | 33,876 |
| 2020 | 4,917 | -642 | -1,033 | -2.09 | -1,493 | 6,505 | 36,495 |
| 2021 | 9,680 | 2,279 | 1,254 | 2.57 | 1,373 | 6,071 | 40,899 |
| 2022 | 13,127 | 1,439 | 1,473 | 3.57 | 1,767 | 4,832 | 45,692 |
| 2023 | 16,164 | 1,892 | 1,142 | 3.18 | 2,699 | 3,811 | 42,369 |
| 2024 | 17,241 | 1,490 | 747 | 2.41 | 2,363 | 3,023 | 42,232 |
| 2025 | 17,538 | 1,002 | 206 | 0.78 | 2,737 | 2,430 | 41,374 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
With Bellagio, Aria, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand and The Cosmopolitan, MGM runs addresses that cannot be rebuilt, plus seven regional properties, two resorts in Macau and a growing online business. Net revenues hit a record $17,537.7 million in 2025 and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $2,425.6 million came in slightly above the prior year.
The real estate of the domestic properties no longer belongs to the company. The 10-K for 2025 puts contractual cash rent at $1.8 billion a year with annual escalators; the income statement carries $2.3 billion of rent expense, the balance sheet a $25,068.7 million lease liability and $54.7 billion of undiscounted future lease payments. Interest expense next to that is only $419.0 million.
Despite record revenue, operating income fell 33 percent to $1,001.8 million in 2025 and net income attributable to MGM to $205.9 million (2023: $1,142.2 million). Earnings per share dropped from $3.19 to $0.76 even though the share count was cut by 43 percent. The trend continued in the first quarter of 2026: operating income down 22 percent.
From 2021 through 2025, $9.4 billion went into share repurchases (share count 453.8 → 258.3 million) while equity fell from $6,070.6 million to $2,429.9 million. In the first quarter of 2026 the buyback was throttled to $90 million (prior-year quarter $494 million) even though $1.5 billion of authorization was free — the cash is needed for Osaka and capital expenditures. A side effect of the program: the largest shareholder's stake rose from 12.0 to 26.1 percent on the shrinking denominator alone.
On June 1, 2026 People Incorporated (IAC Inc. until June 2026), the largest shareholder with 66,822,350 shares or 26.1 percent, offered $48.30 per share in cash for all remaining shares — a 24.1 percent premium to the 30-day average price through May 29, 2026, with no financing condition and funded partly out of MGM's own cash. The proposal is expressly non-binding and revocable at any time; as of July 24, 2026 the MGM board had filed no response with the SEC. It follows the voting agreement of April 3, 2026, which binds votes above 25.73 percent and terminates on a change of control. A non-binding proposal is not a completed deal: the outcome is open.
MGM guarantees $3.01 billion and $3.0 billion of debt owed by its own landlords (Bellagio REIT Venture and the landlord of Mandalay Bay/MGM Grand Las Vegas) and still has roughly $2.1 billion to fund for MGM Osaka — plus an uncapped completion guarantee. For comparison: equity was $2,433.4 million on March 31, 2026.
The decline on the Las Vegas Strip (revenue −4 percent, revenue per available room $229 instead of $245, city visitor volume −8 percent) was offset in 2025 by Macau (+11 percent revenue). But 44 percent of MGM China belongs to others: of $520.9 million in consolidated net income, $315.0 million went to noncontrolling interests and only $205.9 million to MGM shareholders.
MGM Resorts is the largest operator on the Las Vegas Strip — and, since selling the real estate, a tenant in its own buildings. The operating business delivers: $17,537.7 million of revenue in 2025, $5,224.3 million of segment profit from the three property segments, $2,529 million of operating cash flow. But $1.8 billion of cash rent a year with escalators, a $25.1 billion lease liability and roughly $6.0 billion of guarantees for the landlords' debt claim a large part of it; the bottom line was $205.9 million after $1,142.2 million in 2023. Meanwhile equity has shrunk to $2,429.9 million after $9.4 billion of buybacks — and that same buyback lifted the largest shareholder to 26.1 percent, who on June 1, 2026 put a non-binding cash proposal of $48.30 per share on the table for the rest. No response from the MGM board was on file as of July 24, 2026. Not investment advice.
- MGM Resorts came onto the research list not through a momentum or value scanner but through the Form 13F of Helikon Investments Ltd as of March 31, 2026 (2,875,004 shares, $106,403,898). The fund had previously cut the position from 8,810,322 shares (June 30, 2025) to 2,988,773 (December 31, 2025). A 13F shows only U.S.-listed long positions, appears 35 to 45 days late and contains no shorts and no derivatives — a rearview mirror, not a roadmap.
- Standard metrics mislead at MGM: 2025 earnings per share ($0.76) are distorted by the $278.9 million goodwill impairment, and any leverage ratio that counts only $6.2 billion of financial debt misses the $25.1 billion lease liability. Segment Adjusted EBITDAR and rent expense are the more telling figures.
- Valuation figures dated and evergreen: the cover page of the annual report puts the aggregate market value of shares held by non-affiliates at $5.8 billion as of June 30, 2025; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Diary dates: the next Form 13F (reporting date June 30, 2026, published mid-August 2026) and the Osaka funding schedule through 2028.
- Status of the takeover proposal as of the editorial cut-off on July 24, 2026, documented from the primary filings: proposal of June 1, 2026 at $48.30 per share in cash (8-K of IAC Inc./People Incorporated, accession 0001104659-26-068672, Item 7.01, Exhibit 99.1, plus Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 8 of the same day); it follows the voting agreement of April 3, 2026 (MGM 8-K, accession 0000789570-26-000029, Item 1.01, Exhibit 10.1). MGM Resorts has filed nothing with the SEC in response — the company's most recent filings are four Forms 4 dated July 2, 2026 covering director deferred stock units. In Amendment No. 8 the bidder states it does not intend further disclosures unless a definitive agreement has been reached. Diary date: a new Schedule 13D/A on CUSIP 552953101 or an 8-K from MGM.
About the Company
MGM Resorts International ist über ihre Tochtergesellschaften ein Glücksspiel- und Unterhaltungsunternehmen in den USA, China und international. Es ist in vier Segmenten tätig: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China und MGM Digital.
| Employees | 60,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Las Vegas, NV |
| Address | 3600 Las Vegas Boulevard South, 89109 Las Vegas, United States |
| Phone | 702 693 7120 |
| Website | mgmresorts.com |
| IPO Date | 12. Jan 1990 |
| ISIN | US5529531015 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 05/19/2005 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| William Joseph Hornbuckle IV | President, CEO & Director | 1958 |
| Jonathan S. Halkyard | CFO & Treasurer | 1965 |
| John M. McManus Esq. | Chief Legal & Administrative Officer and Secretary | 1967 |
| Corey Ian Sanders | Advisor to President & CEO | 1964 |
| Gary M. Fritz | Chief Commercial Officer & President of MGM Digital | 1974 |
| Ayesha Khanna Molino | Chief Operating Officer | 1981 |
| Todd R. Meinert | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1975 |
| Sarah A. Rogers | Senior VP of Corporate Finance & Treasurer | 1981 |
| Howard H. Wang CPA | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Jeff Mochal | Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.