Harmonic Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The decisive test sits in the next quarterly report (10-Q) and boils down to three lines: how much of the $582.1 million backlog actually landed in the revenue line, where the largest customer stands after the 36 percent of the first quarter of 2026 — and whether gross margin holds the 49.9 to 51.3 percent guided for 2026. Buying today means paying for guidance that merely returns the company to a level it already reached in 2024. Waiting means getting the answer in a document rather than a headline. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Harmonic is the rare case where a streak of earnings beats says less about the company than about the estimates: eight consecutive quarters above expectations sit next to a 26 percent revenue collapse in 2025. Since June 16, 2026 the company has been a pure-play broadband vendor with an almost debt-free balance sheet, $145 million of fresh sale proceeds and a $582 million order book — and, at the same time, a business whose largest customer supplied more than half of 2025 revenue and whose order book, by its own account, converts to revenue only about 53 percent within a year. Whoever invests here is not buying a streak but the bet that ordered equipment becomes delivered equipment — with two buyers setting the pace. Not investment advice.
Order book and bookings
Backlog including deferred revenue of $582.1 million at April 3, 2026 versus $311.7 million in the prior-year quarter (up 87 percent) and $332.3 million at December 31, 2024; bookings of $346.9 million came in during the fourth quarter of 2025 alone (Form 10-K for 2025, Item 1 “Backlog”; quarterly release of May 11, 2026).
Focus after the Video sale
The sale of the Video business to Leone Media Inc. (MediaKind) for $145 million in cash closed on June 16, 2026; that business accounted for roughly 37 percent of consolidated 2025 revenue. Harmonic is now a pure-play broadband vendor with a single reportable segment (Form 8-K filed June 17, 2026, Item 2.01; Form 8-K filed March 11, 2026, Item 7.01).
Customer concentration
One customer supplied about 54 percent of net revenue in 2025 and the ten largest supplied 84 percent; in the first quarter of 2026 two customers accounted for 36 and 22 percent, with the ten largest at 88 percent. The company expects concentration to rise further as cable operators consolidate (Form 10-K for 2025, Items 1 and 1A; Form 10-Q for the period ended April 3, 2026).
Revenue trajectory and cyclicality
Continuing-operations revenue fell 26 percent to $360.5 million in 2025 and operating profit dropped from $74.7 million to $14.1 million — the annual report cites deferred DOCSIS 4.0 deployments and $148.0 million less appliance revenue in the United States. Even the 2026 guidance of $475 million to $495 million only returns the company to its 2024 level (Form 10-K for 2025, Item 7; guidance of May 11, 2026).
Margins and purchasing
Broadband gross margin fell to 52.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026 from 54.8 percent a year earlier, and the company guides to 49.9 to 51.3 percent for 2026. The annual report names AI-driven chip demand, sole-source suppliers and a primary contract manufacturer agreement running only to October 2026 as pressure points (Form 10-K for 2025, Items 1 and 1A).
Balance sheet and capital allocation
$109.0 million of cash against $111.3 million of debt at April 3, 2026, plus the $145 million from the Video sale received since June 16, 2026; 4,220,739 shares repurchased for $43.0 million in the first quarter of 2026 with $78.0 million left on the authorization. Netted against that are roughly 11.5 million shares from the employee plan and outstanding awards — about 11 percent of the share count — after stockholders approved another 3,000,000 plan shares on June 4, 2026 (Form 10-Q for the period ended April 3, 2026; DEFR14A filed May 15, 2026; Form 8-K filed June 5, 2026).
Worth Noting
HLIT reached our research list as rank 22 of 81 U.S. hits in our in-house Big Earnings Surprise scanner (data as of July 25, 2026, RS rating 86) — part of our series on the hits from this scanner. The lists are recomputed daily.
All figures labelled “continuing operations” refer to the broadband business excluding the divested Video segment; Harmonic restated all prior-year figures accordingly. The $108.0 million of operating cash flow for 2025, by contrast, is a consolidated figure that still includes Video.
Price and market-value figures (about $1.21 billion) are based on the 108,496,436 shares shown on the cover page of the quarterly report for the period ended April 3, 2026 (as of May 4, 2026) and the closing price of July 24, 2026; they are cross-checked against the $10.06 to $10.59 buyback prices from the first quarter of 2026. Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not an argument.
Not to be confused: the buyer of the Video business is Leone Media Inc., doing business as MediaKind — not the listed Ericsson group from which MediaKind originally emerged.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at HLIT since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 8.90 $ to 17.10 $ · Last price: 11.00 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Communication Equipment
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harmonic Inc HLIT | 1.2 | 138.6 | 18.6 | 50.0 | 16.8 | -46.9 | 9.6 |
| Cisco Systems Inc CSCO | 436.0 | 35.3 | 22.8 | 64.5 | 25.0 | 5.3 | 66.2 |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co HPE | 78.0 | 57.4 | 14.2 | 36.6 | 8.7 | 14.1 | 152.6 |
| Motorola Solutions Inc MSI | 76.3 | 37.7 | 22.9 | 52.1 | 19.8 | 8.0 | -2.7 |
| Lumentum Holdings Inc LITE | 71.0 | 154.2 | 114.9 | 44.2 | 21.8 | 21.0 | 447.1 |
| Ciena Corp CIEN | 48.8 | 113.9 | 47.4 | 44.1 | 15.2 | 18.8 | 152.4 |
| Ubiquiti Networks Inc UI | 36.1 | – | 27.8 | 46.2 | 36.9 | 33.5 | -1.3 |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson B ERIC | 33.6 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 47.6 | 0.0 | -14.2 | 30.2 |
| Ast Spacemobile Inc ASTS | 24.4 | – | -2.3 | 38.9 | -1,014.0 | 1,505.2 | 52.3 |
| Median of companies shown | 48.8 | 57.4 | 22.8 | 46.2 | 16.8 | 14.1 | 52.3 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 406 | -67 | -72 | -0.93 | 0 | 271 | 554 |
| 2017 | 358 | -71 | -83 | -1.02 | 3 | 218 | 508 |
| 2018 | 404 | -5 | -21 | -0.25 | 12 | 228 | 511 |
| 2019 | 403 | 13 | -6 | -0.07 | 31 | 252 | 587 |
| 2020 | 379 | -12 | -29 | -0.30 | 39 | 258 | 592 |
| 2021 | 507 | 19 | 13 | 0.12 | 41 | 297 | 694 |
| 2022 | 625 | 46 | 28 | 0.25 | 5 | 325 | 710 |
| 2023 | 608 | 22 | 84 | 0.72 | 7 | 437 | 768 |
| 2024 | 679 | 63 | 39 | 0.33 | 62 | 465 | 797 |
| 2025 | 361 | 17 | -43 | -0.38 | 108 | 383 | 718 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q2 | 0.08 | -33.30 | 139 | -11.00 | -9.00 | -22 | -24 |
| 2024: Q3 | 0.19 | 416.70 | 196 | 53.90 | 11.10 | 9 | 6 |
| 2024: Q4 | 0.32 | -55.60 | 222 | 33.00 | 17.20 | 49 | 46 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.05 | 171.40 | 85 | -30.50 | 7.00 | 84 | 82 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.09 | 12.50 | 87 | -37.30 | 3.30 | -12 | -16 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.12 | -36.80 | 142 | -27.30 | 1.90 | 24 | 21 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.14 | -56.30 | 98 | -55.80 | -55.80 | 12 | 10 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.07 | 40.00 | 122 | 43.30 | 6.00 | 32 | 30 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.02 | -122.20 | 134 | 53.60 | -1.70 | -58 | -60 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 19 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- High ADR (≥5%)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.50 | 0.49 – 0.51 | 517 | 52.1% | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.81 | 0.70 – 0.88 | 572 | 13.0% | 7 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 9.1% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $53.9M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.19B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $128.8M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 56.8% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 69.4% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Harmonic nennt in den Risikofaktoren des Geschäftsberichts konkret die KI-getriebene Chip- und Bauteilnachfrage als Ursache für Verknappung, längere Lieferzeiten und steigende Einkaufspreise im eigenen Hardware-Geschäft; eigene KI-Produkte sind in 10-K und 10-Q an keiner Stelle als Umsatzquelle beschrieben.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Geopolitical instability and the global use and evolution of AI has at times contributed to a reduction of components for our products, which may in turn increase costs, extend manufacturing lead times, and make it difficult for us to accurately project component demand and anticipate our needs."
Geopolitische Instabilität sowie die weltweite Nutzung und Weiterentwicklung von KI haben zeitweise zu einer Verknappung von Bauteilen für unsere Produkte beigetragen, was wiederum die Kosten erhöhen, die Fertigungsvorlaufzeiten verlängern und es uns erschweren kann, den Bauteilbedarf verlässlich zu planen und unseren Bedarf vorherzusehen.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
„As AI-driven demand for chips and other components increases, the price of components may increase, or the components may not be available at all, and we may not be able to secure an adequate supply of components at reasonable prices or of acceptable quality to build and deliver products in a timely manner in the qualities needed."
Wenn die KI-getriebene Nachfrage nach Chips und anderen Bauteilen steigt, können die Bauteilpreise anziehen oder die Bauteile gar nicht mehr verfügbar sein; dann gelingt es uns möglicherweise nicht, ausreichend Bauteile zu vertretbaren Preisen und in akzeptabler Qualität zu beschaffen, um Produkte rechtzeitig und in den benötigten Mengen zu bauen und auszuliefern.
10-K · 2026-02-24 · View SEC filing
„We purchase several key components, subassemblies and modules used in the manufacture or integration of our products from sole or limited sources, and we rely on contract manufacturers and other subcontractors. Our components may be subject to price fluctuations, shortages or interruptions of supply, including as a result of geopolitical instability and the use and evolution of AI."
Mehrere zentrale Bauteile, Baugruppen und Module für die Fertigung oder Integration unserer Produkte beziehen wir von Einzel- oder wenigen Quellen, und wir sind auf Auftragsfertiger und weitere Unterlieferanten angewiesen. Unsere Bauteile können Preisschwankungen, Engpässen oder Lieferunterbrechungen unterliegen — auch infolge geopolitischer Instabilität sowie der Nutzung und Weiterentwicklung von KI.
10-Q · 2026-05-13 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-24 · 10-K 2025-02-14 · 10-Q 2026-05-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-04 · 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 10-Q 2025-05-01
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -16.8%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -66.7%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 0.5%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -20.0%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 45.4%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 8.5%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1.0 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 97 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 3.3%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 2.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -1.3%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 26.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 26.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 1.4x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 6
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -13.4%
- ROCE > 15% 3.3%
- Expected return > 10% 36.2%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jankovic Walter | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 732 | 12.00 | 8,784 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jankovic Walter | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 1,457 | 0.00 | – |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ben-Natan Nimrod | President and CEO | Other | 20,032 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ben-Natan Nimrod | President and CEO | Other | 26,196 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jankovic Walter | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 9,930 | 13.92 | 138,226 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jankovic Walter | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 19,784 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chu Timothy C | General Counsel & SVP, HR | Other | 3,475 | 13.92 | 48,372 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chu Timothy C | General Counsel & SVP, HR | Other | 9,876 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Glahn Ronald J | SVP, Global Sales, Broadband | Other | 1,111 | 13.92 | 15,465 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Glahn Ronald J | SVP, Global Sales, Broadband | Other | 4,038 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and SeaStar DAA nodes; Reef and Wave PHY shelf products; pebble remote PHY Devices; and fin, pearl and pier OLT modules and devices; and cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators; and cOS central cloud services, a subscription service for cOS customers. It also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, integration services, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training, as well as SaaS-related support and deployment. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. It also serves cable and telco operators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
- Employees
- 552
- Headquarters
- San Jose, CA
- Address
- 2590 Orchard Parkway, 95131 San Jose, United States
- Phone
- 408 542 2500
- Website
- harmonicinc.com
- IPO Date
- 05/22/1995
- ISIN
- US4131601027
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 10/15/1999
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Nimrod Ben-Natan | President, CEO & Director | 1968 |
| Walter F. Jankovic | Chief Financial Officer | 1969 |
| Timothy C. Chu J.D. | General Counsel, Senior VP of Human Resources & Corporate Secretary | 1973 |
| David Hanover | Investor Relation Officer | – |
| Netra Ghosh | Corporate Communications Manager | – |
| Pamela Gillies | Vice President of Marketing | – |
| Jeffrey Glahn | Senior Vice President of Global Sales & Broadband | 1978 |
| Jeremy Rosenberg | Senior Vice President of Business Development | 1958 |
| Gil Rudge | Senior Vice President of Solutions and Americas Sales | – |
| Noam Adika | Senior Vice President of R&D | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/12/2026 HARMONIC INC. (HLIT): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.