Fate Therapeutics Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Red has no evidentiary basis here: $153.8 million of cash, $153.4 million of equity, no financial debt, no going-concern paragraph from the auditor, and a calculated runway of roughly seven quarters — comfortably above the threshold at which we would call a substance risk. Green is equally unsupported: after nineteen years there is no approved product, the only revenue stream is a research agreement worth $6.6 million in the last full year, and the outcome rests on a single trial whose enrollment is not expected to finish until after the cash runs out. That is the textbook definition of an open operational question. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
After nineteen years and $1,595.7 million of accumulated losses, Fate Therapeutics has for the first time reached the point that matters: its own drug candidate is being given to patients in a potentially registrational trial. At the same time the revenue base has shrunk to $6.6 million for the full year 2025, and $153.8 million of cash does not reach the end of its own enrollment period. Anyone investing here is not buying earnings or revenue but a bet on a single trial and on continued access to the capital markets. Not investment advice.
Balance sheet and funding
As of June 30, 2026 the balance sheet carries $153.8 million in cash and short-term investments and $153.4 million of shareholders' equity, with no financial debt. Auditor Ernst & Young included no going-concern paragraph in the annual report 10-K for 2025, and the company states in its quarterly report that its funds will cover at least the next twelve months.
Cost discipline
Total operating expenses fell from $404.7 million (2022) to $154.4 million (2025), and cash used in operations from $248.2 million to $106.1 million. In the first half of 2026 expenses came in another $14.3 million below the prior-year period: research and development down 13 percent, general and administrative down 27 percent. That is a sustained program, not an accounting effect.
Revenue base
The only source of revenue is the research agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical. Collaboration revenue fell from $96.3 million (2022) to $6.6 million (2025) and was $2.082 million in the second quarter of 2026. There has been no revenue from therapeutic product sales since incorporation in 2007 — the annual report 10-K for 2025 says so verbatim.
Dilution
As of June 30, 2026 there were 39,126,625 potentially dilutive securities against 116,694,106 shares outstanding; a year earlier the figure was 33,517,954. By August 6, 2026 the share count had risen to 119,820,514. Shareholders approved another 7,000,000 plan shares on June 12, 2026, and roughly $220.0 million remains available under the shelf registration statement.
Clinical progress
In August 2026 the first patient was dosed in the Phase 2 RECLAIM-LN trial — as an outpatient, discharged the same day. In the preceding Phase 1 study in systemic lupus, the earnings release of August 13, 2026 reports no dose-limiting toxicities, no Grade 2 or higher cytokine release syndrome, no neurotoxicity and no graft-versus-host disease among the 16 patients treated under the less-intensive conditioning regimen. Only registrational data will settle the question.
Timeline versus runway
Enrollment in RECLAIM-LN is targeted to complete in the first half of 2028 according to the August 13, 2026 release — while the same release guides runway only "into 2028". The company therefore cannot carry its own registrational trial to a result on its own balance sheet; additional capital is not an option but a precondition.
Worth Noting
Trigger: our in-house Reddit hype scanner, flagged on September 18, 2026. The scanner measures attention in retail forums, not quality — it is a reason to research, not a signal.
As-of data: annual report 10-K for 2025 (filed February 26, 2026), quarterly report 10-Q as of June 30, 2026 (filed August 13, 2026), 8-K of August 13, 2026 with Exhibit 99.1, Form S-8 of August 13, 2026 and Schedule 13D/A of April 22, 2026. No further filing was submitted between August 13 and September 19, 2026.
Every price named comes from an SEC filing rather than a trading session: $85.50 (January 2021 offering), $5.50 (March 2024 offering) and $2.795 (filing fee table of the Form S-8, average of the high and low sales prices on August 10, 2026).
Possible confusion: the ticker FATE belongs to Fate Therapeutics, Inc. of San Diego. Janssen Biotech, named in the competition section of the annual report, is part of Johnson & Johnson and was a partner until January 2023, never an owner.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of September 19, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at FATE since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 0.964 $ to 3.10 $ · Last price: 2.10 $ (As of: October 30, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/30/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fate Therapeutics Inc FATE | 0.2 | – | -2.6 | -1,200.6 | – | -51.2 | 61.9 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 141.4 | 33.3 | 25.7 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 33.1 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 96.4 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 44.5 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 42.6 |
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 88.0 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 687.9 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 55.5 | 34.1 | 26.2 | 59.8 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 8.8 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 41.9 | 66.1 | 33.8 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 18.0 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 39.8 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 225.0 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 37.0 | 36.4 | 20.8 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 85.4 |
| Genmab AS GMAB | 35.6 | 44.9 | 24.7 | 93.0 | 35.2 | -82.7 | 99.0 |
| Median of companies shown | 41.9 | 35.2 | 20.8 | 55.0 | 26.3 | 1.0 | 61.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | -32 | -33 | -1.05 | -30 | 73 | 95 |
| 2017 | 4 | -42 | -43 | -1.02 | -37 | 77 | 105 |
| 2018 | 5 | -67 | -67 | -1.19 | -39 | 160 | 213 |
| 2019 | 11 | -101 | -98 | -1.44 | -83 | 245 | 302 |
| 2020 | 31 | -128 | -173 | -2.10 | -39 | 384 | 622 |
| 2021 | 56 | -217 | -212 | -2.24 | -163 | 679 | 921 |
| 2022 | 96 | -308 | -255 | -2.63 | -248 | 484 | 706 |
| 2023 | 64 | -191 | -161 | -1.64 | -132 | 368 | 506 |
| 2024 | 14 | -210 | -186 | -1.64 | -123 | 319 | 441 |
| 2025 | 7 | -148 | -136 | -1.15 | -106 | 207 | 319 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.44 | – | 2 | 11.00 | -2,803.90 | -28 | -28 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.32 | – | 2 | -15.40 | -2,309.50 | -34 | -35 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.29 | – | 2 | -71.80 | -1,786.60 | -25 | -26 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.27 | – | 2 | -43.40 | -1,852.40 | -24 | -27 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.27 | – | 1 | -26.40 | -2,364.80 | -23 | -25 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.26 | – | 1 | -20.30 | -2,402.80 | -31 | -31 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.25 | 13.80 | 2 | 10.50 | -1,438.10 | -23 | -24 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 13 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above 21-EMA Pullback
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- High ADR (≥5%)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Power Trend
- RS Leader (≥90)
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -1.02 | -1.11 – -0.88 | 6 | 11.5% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.97 | -1.30 – -0.64 | 5 | 4.9% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 19.09.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 (eingereicht 26.02.2026), den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2024 (05.03.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 30.06.2026, eingereicht 13.08.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Fate Therapeutics findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Weder Item 1 (Business) noch die Ertragslage nennen ein KI-Produkt, eine KI-Umsatzquelle oder einen belegten operativen KI-Einsatz; die Erlöse stammen ausschließlich aus dem Forschungsvertrag mit Ono Pharmaceutical (6,6 Mio. US-Dollar 2025). Sämtliche KI-Erwähnungen stehen im Risikoteil (Item 1A) und sind Branchen-Boilerplate über fremde Technik: „Artificial intelligence (AI)-based software is increasingly being used in the biopharmaceutical and global healthcare industries.“ (10-K 2025, Item 1A) — „KI-gestützte Software wird in der Biopharma- und der globalen Gesundheitsbranche zunehmend eingesetzt.“ Der eigene Einsatz wird ausdrücklich nur als Möglichkeit formuliert: „We may use and integrate artificial intelligence (AI) tools in our business operations.“ (10-Q zum 30.06.2026, Item 1A) — „Wir könnten in unserem Geschäftsbetrieb KI-Werkzeuge einsetzen und einbinden.“ Dazu kommen zwei Regulierungs- und Cybersicherheits-Floskeln (EU-KI-Verordnung, KI-gestützte Angriffe Dritter). Nach dem Kriterienkatalog begründet Boilerplate im Risikoteil weder „bedroht“ noch „nutzt“ — Rang 4 „neutral“ mit dokumentiertem Negativ-Befund. Ein Umschlag auf „nutzt“ wäre belegt, sobald ein Filing den KI-Einsatz im Präsens statt im Konjunktiv beschreibt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-13 · 10-Q 2026-05-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-13 · 10-Q 2025-08-12 · 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-K 2025-03-05
Rated on September 19, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -59.0%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year -0.2%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 7.1%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -1,737.0%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -94.1%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 126 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 122 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -52.2%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
1/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 4.7%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -15.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -15.0%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -65.8%
- ROCE > 15% -52.2%
- Expected return > 10% -54.2%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tahl Cindy | See Remarks | Sell | 38,800 | 2.46 | 95,405 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Valamehr Bahram | President and CEO | Sell | 43,947 | 2.46 | 108,101 |
The company
About the Company
Fate Therapeutics, Inc., ein biopharmazeutisches Unternehmen in der klinischen Phase, entwickelt programmierte zelluläre Immuntherapien gegen Krebs und Immunerkrankungen in den USA und international.
- Employees
- 161
- Headquarters
- San Diego, CA
- Address
- 12278 Scripps Summit Drive, 92131 San Diego, United States
- Phone
- 858 875 1800
- Website
- fatetherapeutics.com
- IPO Date
- 10/01/2013
- ISIN
- US31189P1021
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Bahram Valamehr M.B.A., Ph.D. | President, CEO & Director | 1977 |
| Kamal Adawi M.S., MBA | CFO & Treasurer | 1979 |
| Cindy R. Tahl J.D. | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1973 |
| Jessica Francis | Senior Vice President of Human Resources & Operations | – |
| Martin Hosking | Head of Research | – |
| Tunde Babalola Ph.D. | Senior Vice President of Technical Operations & Quality | – |
| Ryan Douglas | Senior Director of Investor Relations & Business Development | – |
| Andrew Henry | Senior Vice President of Clinical Operations | 1964 |
| Yu Cai J.D., Ph.D. | Head of Intellectual Property & Assistant General Counsel | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: October 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.