Erasca Inc (ERAS)
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symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
For a research-stage company the balance sheet is unusually solid: $408.5 million in cash and marketable securities on March 31, 2026, not a single interest-bearing liability, an equity ratio of 82.1 percent — and roughly $516.0 million on top from the July 2026 offering. Even before that raise management expected the funds to last into the second half of 2028, no report carries a going-concern warning, and with operating cash outflow running at $27.4 million a quarter the substance of the company is not in question. What is missing is proof that any of it turns into a business: not a dollar of revenue since inception in 2018, an accumulated deficit of $1.1 billion, and everything riding on a single compound whose first potentially registration-enabling trial is not due to start before the first half of 2027. The Phase 1 numbers — 62 percent response in 37 lung cancer patients, 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients — are a signal, not proof, and the demand letter from Revolution Medicines dated April 24, 2026 leaves the legal position on that very compound open, with no lawsuit pending so far. The share count rising from 119.1 million at the end of 2021 to about 342.2 million is the price of funding research without revenue. A full treasury, but the core question of the business is still open — hence yellow. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Erasca ranks second in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (U.S. selection, as of July 25, 2026). On July 13, 2026 the San Diego cancer research company released updated Phase 1 data for its lead compound — and signed the agreement for 31,428,572 new shares at $17.50 before the day was over. We read the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the Form 10-K for 2025 and every filing that followed: zero revenue since inception, $1.1 billion of accumulated deficit, and a demand letter aimed at the one molecule everything depends on. Read on before you mistake a percentage for a valuation.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ERAS since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 14 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 18.20 $ — 80% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIErasca erklärt im Geschäftsbericht 10-K für 2025 ausdrücklich, künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungsverfahren im gesamten Unternehmen einzusetzen und weiter in diese Technik zu investieren — Umsatz erzielt die Firma damit nicht, sie hat überhaupt keinen Umsatz.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We use artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and automated decision-making technologies, (collectively, AI Technologies) throughout our business, and are making investments in this area. We expect that increased investment will be required in the future to continuously improve our use of AI Technologies."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz (KI), maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungsverfahren (zusammen „KI-Technologien“) im gesamten Unternehmen ein und investieren in diesen Bereich. Wir gehen davon aus, dass künftig höhere Investitionen nötig sein werden, um unseren Einsatz von KI-Technologien laufend zu verbessern.
„Our efforts to develop proprietary AI models could increase our operating costs. Our ability to develop proprietary AI models may be limited by our access to processing infrastructure or training data, and we may be dependent on third-party providers for such resources."
Unsere Bemühungen, eigene KI-Modelle zu entwickeln, könnten unsere Betriebskosten erhöhen. Unsere Fähigkeit, eigene KI-Modelle zu entwickeln, kann durch unseren Zugang zu Rechenleistung oder Trainingsdaten begrenzt sein, und wir könnten bei diesen Mitteln von Drittanbietern abhängig sein.
„Additionally, any integration of artificial intelligence in our or any third party’s operations, products or services is expected to pose new or unknown cybersecurity risks and challenges."
Zudem dürfte jede Einbindung künstlicher Intelligenz in unsere Abläufe, Produkte oder Dienste oder in die Dritter neue oder unbekannte Risiken und Herausforderungen für die Informationssicherheit mit sich bringen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-11 · 10-K 2026-03-12 · 10-Q 2025-11-12 · 10-Q 2025-08-12 · 10-Q 2025-05-13 · 10-K 2025-03-20
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 25.3% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 8
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.95 | -1.01 – -0.90 | 0 | -116.6% | 9 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.55 | -0.72 – -0.41 | 1 | 42.0% | 9 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.12 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.14 | – | 4 | -24.80 | -768.20 | -25 | -25 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.11 | – | 0 | – | – | -32 | -32 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.12 | – | 0 | – | – | -21 | -21 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.11 | – | 0 | – | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.10 | – | 0 | -100.00 | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.60 | – | 0 | – | – | -27 | -27 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0 | -13 | -12 | -0.13 | -10 | -14 | 56 |
| 2020 | 0 | -109 | -102 | -5.47 | -33 | -114 | 125 |
| 2021 | 0 | -125 | -123 | -1.29 | -80 | 457 | 501 |
| 2022 | 0 | -247 | -243 | -2.49 | -103 | 412 | 515 |
| 2023 | 0 | -142 | -125 | -1.04 | -101 | 317 | 395 |
| 2024 | 0 | -180 | -162 | -0.69 | -109 | 424 | 503 |
| 2025 | 0 | -131 | -125 | -0.44 | -95 | 325 | 396 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Dose finding produced objective signals: all 14 patients assessed showed at least a 75 percent drop in circulating tumor DNA, five of them a complete disappearance (release of April 27, 2026). Response rates ran at 62 percent in 37 second-line lung cancer patients and 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients at the recommended dose (data cutoffs April 4 and May 25, 2026).
As of March 31, 2026 the company held $408.5 million in cash and marketable securities without a single interest-bearing liability; the equity ratio was 82.1 percent. The July 2026 offering added roughly $516.0 million. Operating cash outflow in the first quarter of 2026 was just $27.4 million.
Not a dollar of revenue has been booked since inception in 2018, and the accumulated deficit stood at $1.1 billion on March 31, 2026. The first potentially registration-enabling trial is not due to start until the first half of 2027, with Phase 3 trials in 2027 and 2028 — product revenue is not realistic before the end of the decade.
Shares outstanding rose from 119.1 million (December 31, 2021) through 310.8 million (March 31, 2026) to about 342.2 million after the offering priced on July 13, 2026. As of March 31, 2026 another 78.2 million shares were reserved and a $200.0 million at-the-market program sat untouched — against 800 million authorized shares.
On April 24, 2026 Revolution Medicines demanded by letter an immediate halt to the manufacture, use and sale of ERAS-0015 in the United States, relying on U.S. Patent No. 12,409,225 and on trade secrets it claims were misappropriated. Erasca considers the allegations meritless; no lawsuit was pending as of May 11, 2026.
Roughly $6.6 billion of market value ($19.11 on July 24, 2026) stands against net tangible book value of about $909.5 million after the offering — seven times over. Price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios do not exist in the absence of profit and revenue. Eight of eight analyst ratings were positive as of July 25, 2026, with a mean target price of $22.80.
Erasca develops cancer drugs meant to shut down the RAS/MAPK pathway and has raised about $1.3 billion since 2018 to do it — without ever booking a dollar of revenue. Phase 1 data for the lead compound ERAS-0015 look promising: a 62 percent response rate in 37 second-line lung cancer patients and 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients at the recommended dose. On the day of the most recent data release, July 13, 2026, the company signed an agreement for 31,428,572 new shares at $17.50 — $550.0 million gross. The share count has almost tripled since the end of 2021. Add a demand letter from Revolution Medicines aimed at that very compound, a one-time $150.0 million payment to licensor Joyo and a quarterly net loss of $183.4 million. Not investment advice.
- ERAS reached our research list as rank 2 of 28 U.S. hits in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (as of July 25, 2026, relative strength rating 99) — part of the series filling the top 50 of that ranking with analyses. Scanner lists are recalculated daily.
- What the scanner measures: at least 15 percent price gain over four trading days, at least 10 million dollars of average daily turnover and a relative strength rating of 70 or higher. Those are pure price criteria and say nothing about the quality of the business.
- Ratio trap: the Piotroski F-Score and the Altman Z-Score carry little meaning for a company with no revenue and no debt — the first is pushed down (3 of 9) because four of its criteria require profit or a profit margin, the second distorted upward (52.6) because there are no liabilities to weigh against.
- Recency note: the latest quarterly report (10-Q) is dated May 11, 2026. Everything filed afterwards has been reviewed — the Form 8-K of July 1, 2026 (Item 5.07, annual meeting), the shelf registration S-3ASR of July 13, 2026, the 424B5 prospectus supplements of July 13 and 14, 2026 and the Forms 8-K of July 13 and 14, 2026. The $550.0 million offering changes the picture and is reflected throughout this analysis. There is no takeover, no merger and no delisting.
- Number trap: the widely quoted response rates are "uORR" — they count confirmed and unconfirmed responses together. An unconfirmed response can vanish at the next assessment. The company itself notes that preliminary results may change materially as more patients enroll and follow-up lengthens.
About the Company
Erasca, Inc., ein Präzisionsonkologie-Unternehmen im klinischen Stadium, konzentriert sich auf Entdeckung, Entwicklung und Vermarktung von Therapien für Patienten mit RAS/MAPK-Signalweg-getriebenen Krebserkrankungen.
| Employees | 103 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | San Diego, CA |
| Address | 3115 Merryfield Row, 92121 San Diego, United States |
| Phone | 858 465 6511 |
| Website | erasca.com |
| IPO Date | 16. Jul 2021 |
| ISIN | US29479A1088 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan E. Lim M.D. | Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1972 |
| Michael D. Varney Ph.D. | Chairman of Research & Development, Scientific Advisory Board Member and Director | 1958 |
| Shannon R. Morris M.D., Ph.D. | Chief Medical Officer | 1970 |
| Nik Chetwyn Ph.D. | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Alison Tjosvold Milhous | Senior Vice President of Accounting | 1979 |
| Robert Shoemaker Ph.D. | Chief Scientific Officer | 1981 |
| Ebun S. Garner Esq., J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1972 |
| Lisa Tesvich-Bonora Ph.D. | Chief People Officer | – |
| Chandra D. Lovejoy M.S. | Chief Regulatory Affairs Officer | 1971 |
| Minli Xie Ph.D. | Senior Vice President of Pharmaceutical Development & Operations | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.