Erasca Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
For a research-stage company the balance sheet is unusually solid: $408.5 million in cash and marketable securities on March 31, 2026, not a single interest-bearing liability, an equity ratio of 82.1 percent — and roughly $516.0 million on top from the July 2026 offering. Even before that raise management expected the funds to last into the second half of 2028, no report carries a going-concern warning, and with operating cash outflow running at $27.4 million a quarter the substance of the company is not in question. What is missing is proof that any of it turns into a business: not a dollar of revenue since inception in 2018, an accumulated deficit of $1.1 billion, and everything riding on a single compound whose first potentially registration-enabling trial is not due to start before the first half of 2027. The Phase 1 numbers — 62 percent response in 37 lung cancer patients, 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients — are a signal, not proof, and the demand letter from Revolution Medicines dated April 24, 2026 leaves the legal position on that very compound open, with no lawsuit pending so far. The share count rising from 119.1 million at the end of 2021 to about 342.2 million is the price of funding research without revenue. A full treasury, but the core question of the business is still open — hence yellow. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Erasca develops cancer drugs meant to shut down the RAS/MAPK pathway and has raised about $1.3 billion since 2018 to do it — without ever booking a dollar of revenue. Phase 1 data for the lead compound ERAS-0015 look promising: a 62 percent response rate in 37 second-line lung cancer patients and 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients at the recommended dose. On the day of the most recent data release, July 13, 2026, the company signed an agreement for 31,428,572 new shares at $17.50 — $550.0 million gross. The share count has almost tripled since the end of 2021. Add a demand letter from Revolution Medicines aimed at that very compound, a one-time $150.0 million payment to licensor Joyo and a quarterly net loss of $183.4 million. Not investment advice.
Compound & trial data
Dose finding produced objective signals: all 14 patients assessed showed at least a 75 percent drop in circulating tumor DNA, five of them a complete disappearance (release of April 27, 2026). Response rates ran at 62 percent in 37 second-line lung cancer patients and 57 percent in seven pancreatic cancer patients at the recommended dose (data cutoffs April 4 and May 25, 2026).
Balance sheet & cash
As of March 31, 2026 the company held $408.5 million in cash and marketable securities without a single interest-bearing liability; the equity ratio was 82.1 percent. The July 2026 offering added roughly $516.0 million. Operating cash outflow in the first quarter of 2026 was just $27.4 million.
Earning power
Not a dollar of revenue has been booked since inception in 2018, and the accumulated deficit stood at $1.1 billion on March 31, 2026. The first potentially registration-enabling trial is not due to start until the first half of 2027, with Phase 3 trials in 2027 and 2028 — product revenue is not realistic before the end of the decade.
Dilution
Shares outstanding rose from 119.1 million (December 31, 2021) through 310.8 million (March 31, 2026) to about 342.2 million after the offering priced on July 13, 2026. As of March 31, 2026 another 78.2 million shares were reserved and a $200.0 million at-the-market program sat untouched — against 800 million authorized shares.
Legal position on the lead compound
On April 24, 2026 Revolution Medicines demanded by letter an immediate halt to the manufacture, use and sale of ERAS-0015 in the United States, relying on U.S. Patent No. 12,409,225 and on trade secrets it claims were misappropriated. Erasca considers the allegations meritless; no lawsuit was pending as of May 11, 2026.
Valuation
Roughly $6.6 billion of market value ($19.11 on July 24, 2026) stands against net tangible book value of about $909.5 million after the offering — seven times over. Price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios do not exist in the absence of profit and revenue. Eight of eight analyst ratings were positive as of July 25, 2026, with a mean target price of $22.80.
Worth Noting
ERAS reached our research list as rank 2 of 28 U.S. hits in our in-house Moglen weekly ranking (as of July 25, 2026, relative strength rating 99) — part of the series filling the top 50 of that ranking with analyses. Scanner lists are recalculated daily.
What the scanner measures: at least 15 percent price gain over four trading days, at least 10 million dollars of average daily turnover and a relative strength rating of 70 or higher. Those are pure price criteria and say nothing about the quality of the business.
Ratio trap: the Piotroski F-Score and the Altman Z-Score carry little meaning for a company with no revenue and no debt — the first is pushed down (3 of 9) because four of its criteria require profit or a profit margin, the second distorted upward (52.6) because there are no liabilities to weigh against.
Recency note: the latest quarterly report (10-Q) is dated May 11, 2026. Everything filed afterwards has been reviewed — the Form 8-K of July 1, 2026 (Item 5.07, annual meeting), the shelf registration S-3ASR of July 13, 2026, the 424B5 prospectus supplements of July 13 and 14, 2026 and the Forms 8-K of July 13 and 14, 2026. The $550.0 million offering changes the picture and is reflected throughout this analysis. There is no takeover, no merger and no delisting.
Number trap: the widely quoted response rates are "uORR" — they count confirmed and unconfirmed responses together. An unconfirmed response can vanish at the next assessment. The company itself notes that preliminary results may change materially as more patients enroll and follow-up lengthens.
Stock Watch
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 1.70 $ to 22.50 $ · Last price: 15.30 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Biotechnology
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erasca Inc ERAS | 4.9 | – | -1.6 | – | 0.0 | – | 818.6 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | 130.6 | 31.3 | 24.5 | 55.0 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 33.4 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN | 82.0 | 19.9 | 13.1 | 44.5 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 35.5 |
| Moderna Inc MRNA | 62.7 | – | 4.6 | -66.0 | -131.1 | -39.2 | 532.3 |
| argenx NV ARGX | 61.9 | 38.1 | 34.2 | 59.1 | 32.0 | 89.6 | 30.9 |
| Revolution Medicines Inc RVMD | 40.9 | – | -9.7 | -174,708.6 | 0.0 | -100.0 | 338.3 |
| BeiGene, Ltd. ONC | 40.0 | 63.1 | 34.1 | 88.9 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 6.4 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc ALNY | 32.6 | 61.8 | 28.4 | 79.7 | 23.0 | 65.2 | -48.1 |
| Royalty Pharma Plc RPRX | 32.5 | 31.8 | 19.6 | 95.8 | 100.3 | 5.1 | 68.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 40.9 | 34.9 | 19.6 | 57.0 | 20.7 | 7.3 | 35.5 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0 | -13 | -12 | -0.13 | -10 | -14 | 56 |
| 2020 | 0 | -109 | -102 | -5.47 | -33 | -114 | 125 |
| 2021 | 0 | -125 | -123 | -1.29 | -80 | 457 | 501 |
| 2022 | 0 | -247 | -243 | -2.49 | -103 | 412 | 515 |
| 2023 | 0 | -142 | -125 | -1.04 | -101 | 317 | 395 |
| 2024 | 0 | -180 | -162 | -0.69 | -109 | 424 | 503 |
| 2025 | 0 | -131 | -125 | -0.44 | -95 | 325 | 396 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.14 | – | 4 | -24.80 | -768.20 | -25 | -25 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.11 | – | 0 | – | – | -32 | -32 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.12 | – | 0 | – | – | -21 | -21 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.11 | – | 0 | – | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.10 | – | 0 | -100.00 | – | -22 | -22 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.60 | – | 0 | – | – | -27 | -27 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.14 | -16.70 | – | – | – | -27 | -27 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 15 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- High ADR (≥5%)
- Mike Webster: Swing Trading List
- Qullamaggie: Top Gainers 6M
- RS Leader (≥90)
- Richard Moglen: 1 Week Top Performers
- Richard Moglen: Top Performers 3/6 Month
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.98 | -1.06 – -0.86 | 0 | -121.9% | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.62 | -0.80 – -0.34 | 0 | 36.2% | 8 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Erasca erklärt im Geschäftsbericht 10-K für 2025 ausdrücklich, künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungsverfahren im gesamten Unternehmen einzusetzen und weiter in diese Technik zu investieren — Umsatz erzielt die Firma damit nicht, sie hat überhaupt keinen Umsatz.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We use artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and automated decision-making technologies, (collectively, AI Technologies) throughout our business, and are making investments in this area. We expect that increased investment will be required in the future to continuously improve our use of AI Technologies."
Wir setzen künstliche Intelligenz (KI), maschinelles Lernen und automatisierte Entscheidungsverfahren (zusammen „KI-Technologien“) im gesamten Unternehmen ein und investieren in diesen Bereich. Wir gehen davon aus, dass künftig höhere Investitionen nötig sein werden, um unseren Einsatz von KI-Technologien laufend zu verbessern.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„Our efforts to develop proprietary AI models could increase our operating costs. Our ability to develop proprietary AI models may be limited by our access to processing infrastructure or training data, and we may be dependent on third-party providers for such resources."
Unsere Bemühungen, eigene KI-Modelle zu entwickeln, könnten unsere Betriebskosten erhöhen. Unsere Fähigkeit, eigene KI-Modelle zu entwickeln, kann durch unseren Zugang zu Rechenleistung oder Trainingsdaten begrenzt sein, und wir könnten bei diesen Mitteln von Drittanbietern abhängig sein.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
„Additionally, any integration of artificial intelligence in our or any third party’s operations, products or services is expected to pose new or unknown cybersecurity risks and challenges."
Zudem dürfte jede Einbindung künstlicher Intelligenz in unsere Abläufe, Produkte oder Dienste oder in die Dritter neue oder unbekannte Risiken und Herausforderungen für die Informationssicherheit mit sich bringen.
10-K · 2026-03-12 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-11 · 10-K 2026-03-12 · 10-Q 2025-11-12 · 10-Q 2025-08-12 · 10-Q 2025-05-13 · 10-K 2025-03-20
Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 0.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 42.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") no data
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion no data
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 229 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 105 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -35.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 10.7%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
1/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% –
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% –
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -38.3%
- ROCE > 15% -35.7%
- Expected return > 10% –
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Erasca, Inc., ein Präzisionsonkologie-Unternehmen im klinischen Stadium, konzentriert sich auf Entdeckung, Entwicklung und Vermarktung von Therapien für Patienten mit RAS/MAPK-Signalweg-getriebenen Krebserkrankungen.
- Employees
- 103
- Headquarters
- San Diego, CA
- Address
- 3115 Merryfield Row, 92121 San Diego, United States
- Phone
- 858 465 6511
- Website
- erasca.com
- IPO Date
- 07/16/2021
- ISIN
- US29479A1088
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan E. Lim M.D. | Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1972 |
| David M. Chacko M.D. | CFO & Chief Business Officer | 1983 |
| Michael D. Varney Ph.D. | Chairman of Research & Development, Scientific Advisory Board Member and Director | 1958 |
| Shannon R. Morris M.D., Ph.D. | Chief Medical Officer | 1970 |
| Nik Chetwyn Ph.D. | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Alison Tjosvold Milhous | Senior Vice President of Accounting | 1979 |
| Robert Shoemaker Ph.D. | Chief Scientific Officer | 1981 |
| Ebun S. Garner Esq., J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1972 |
| Lisa Tesvich-Bonora Ph.D. | Chief People Officer | – |
| Brian L. Baker CPA, M.S. | Senior Vice President of Finance | 1967 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/24/2026 Erasca, Inc. (ERAS): Other Events SEC ↗
- 08/11/2026 Erasca, Inc. (ERAS): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/10/2026 Erasca, Inc. (ERAS): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
- 07/14/2026 Erasca, Inc. (ERAS): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/13/2026 Erasca, Inc. (ERAS): Other Events SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.