Dynex Capital Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys the stock for the 15.7 percent yield should know that a substantial part of it is a repayment of their own capital, financed through ongoing dilution. Dynex makes sense only for investors who deliberately take a leveraged bet on the yield curve and use book value per share — not the revenue or yield number — as their touchstone. The next acid test is the quarterly release on July 20, 2026. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Dynex Capital is not a growth stock but a leveraged interest-rate bet with a high yet unearned payout. The "triple-digit revenue growth" is an accounting artifact of a balance sheet tripled on repo credit; the 15.7 percent dividend is earned to less than half and partly paid out of the investors' own capital, while book value erodes over the long run. On the other side stand government-guaranteed securities, internal management and an interest environment that was favorable in 2025. Not investment advice.
Portfolio quality
Predominantly agency MBS guaranteed by the government-sponsored U.S. institutions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — practically no credit default risk, high liquidity. Internally managed, so no expensive external management fees.
Revenue "growth"
The +170.8 percent of "revenue" is a balance-sheet artifact: total assets were tripled in five quarters from $8.2 billion to $24.3 billion. The record quarter Q1 2026 still showed a net loss of $80.4 million; the 2025 net interest spread was just 0.47 percent. The rank-3 spot in the EBIT-margin ranking (US selection, as of July 18, 2026) is the same distortion — interest expense does not reduce EBIT.
Dividend coverage
The 15.7 percent dividend is not earned: in 2025, $2.00 was paid but only $0.90 earned (EAD); in 2024 the earned result was negative at minus $0.35. Part of it is a return of the shareholders' own capital for tax purposes; no minimum dividend level has been established.
Book value & dilution
Book value per share fell from $19.08 (end of 2020) to $12.60 (03/31/2026) — minus 34 percent. The share count rose from 53.6 million to 207.2 million since the end of 2022; the dividend is increasingly paid out of freshly collected capital to a larger share base.
Leverage & interest-rate risk
Leverage of 8.6 times equity on repo loans callable overnight ($21.0 billion), which the lenders extend at their own discretion. Falling bond prices trigger margin calls; the first quarter of 2026 produced a negative total economic return of $0.34 per share.
Environment
The interest environment turned in favor of mortgage REITs in 2025 (the earned spread came back out of negative territory, rate cuts); per management, a directive covering $200 billion of bond purchases provides an additional tailwind. That can turn again with the yield curve.
Worth Noting
For a mortgage REIT, price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios are misleading; the relevant valuation figure is the price-to-book ratio (around 1.05 as of March 31, 2026). The EBIT margin (rank 3 in the US EBIT-margin ranking as of July 18, 2026) is likewise distorted, because interest expense — the largest real cost — does not reduce EBIT.
The record 2025 profit ($319 million) consists mostly of non-cash fair-value gains on the bonds, not of recurring earnings power.
Distress metrics such as the Altman Z-Score (−1.94) are of limited methodological validity for financial companies, but they do reflect the heavily leveraged balance-sheet structure.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at DX since then.
Later $1 a month per stock — signing up is free, and you'll be the first to know when it launches.
Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 11.90 $ to 14.70 $ · Last price: 12.20 $ (As of: September 18, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: REIT - Mortgage
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynex Capital Inc DX | 2.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 136.0 | 67.8 | 15.0 |
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc. NLY | 16.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 81.0 | 5.4 | 11.0 |
| AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC | 11.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 129.8 | -60.8 | 11.1 |
| Starwood Property Trust Inc STWD | 5.8 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 17.4 | -7.9 | -17.2 |
| Rithm Capital Corp. RITM | 5.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 95.6 | 13.2 | 20.0 | -16.0 |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc BXMT | 2.3 | – | 0.0 | 100.0 | -6.1 | -14.0 | -22.7 |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. ARI | 2.0 | 18.8 | 0.0 | 86.4 | 41.4 | 1.3 | 59.5 |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc ARR | 1.8 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 100.0 | 138.9 | 444.1 | 17.9 |
| Ellington Financial Inc. EFC | 1.6 | – | 0.0 | 100.0 | 59.4 | 139.0 | 7.0 |
| Median of companies shown | 2.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 59.4 | 5.4 | 11.0 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 82 | 42 | 43 | 2.63 | 211 | 467 | 3,398 |
| 2017 | 86 | 34 | 34 | 2.02 | 204 | 557 | 3,306 |
| 2018 | 83 | 7 | 7 | 0.37 | 181 | 527 | 3,886 |
| 2019 | 164 | -153 | -153 | -6.46 | 175 | 583 | 5,371 |
| 2020 | 232 | 210 | 178 | 7.68 | 174 | 633 | 3,088 |
| 2021 | 67 | 108 | 102 | 3.12 | 147 | 3,691 | 3,693 |
| 2022 | -2 | 187 | 143 | 3.35 | 126 | 901 | 3,605 |
| 2023 | -40 | -73 | -6 | -0.11 | 62 | 871 | 6,370 |
| 2024 | 318 | 428 | 114 | 1.60 | 14 | 1,185 | 8,185 |
| 2025 | 534 | 738 | 319 | 2.55 | 121 | 2,462 | 17,342 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.63 | 47.40 | 89 | 24.30 | 57.70 | 15 | 15 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.03 | -105.10 | 95 | 32.90 | -3.20 | 6 | 6 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.12 | – | 112 | 49.90 | -12.20 | 32 | 32 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.10 | 170.60 | 150 | 79.30 | 100.50 | 68 | 68 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.18 | 88.60 | 177 | 100.00 | 104.70 | 14 | 14 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.40 | – | 257 | 170.80 | -31.20 | 70 | 70 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.80 | 766.70 | – | – | – | 84 | 84 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 15 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
- CEO Buys
- Insider Buying (Net)
- Institutional + Insiders Building Positions
- Institutional Accumulation
- Institutions + CEO Buying
Breakout & Setup
Dividends
Momentum & Trend
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 1.41 | 1.39 – 1.42 | 390 | 81.2% | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1.57 | 1.45 – 1.71 | 489 | 11.4% | 5 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -0.2% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $236.6M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.66B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $231.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 45.9% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 7.0% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Dynex Capital ist ein Mortgage-REIT ohne jede KI-Umsatzquelle; KI taucht ausschließlich im Risikokapitel der beiden 10-K auf. Das jüngste 10-K (Geschäftsjahr 2025) belegt dort aber einen beginnenden operativen Einsatz: Dynex spricht von der „sich weiterentwickelnden Nutzung“ von KI und Machine Learning, von zunehmender Abhängigkeit von der Technologie, nennt konkrete Einsatzfelder (Datenanalyse, Programmierung, Dokumententwürfe, Zusammenfassen von Research) und verweist auf eigene Richtlinien für den verantwortungsvollen KI-Umgang — im Vorjahres-10-K war davon nur prospektiv („in the future, we may utilize“) die Rede. Die vier geprüften 10-Q enthalten keinerlei KI-Bezug; ein konkretes KI-Risiko für das Geschäftsmodell selbst wird nicht benannt.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We may be subject to risks associated with our use of data and technology systems, including our evolving use of AI and machine learning technology."
Wir können Risiken im Zusammenhang mit unserer Nutzung von Daten- und Technologiesystemen unterliegen, einschließlich unserer sich weiterentwickelnden Nutzung von KI- und Machine-Learning-Technologie.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
„Further, with technological advances in AI and machine learning technology rapidly accelerating, the risks associated with our use of AI may increase as well due to both increasing reliance on this technology and emerging risks as the technology develops."
Da sich die technologischen Fortschritte bei KI- und Machine-Learning-Technologie rasant beschleunigen, können zudem die mit unserer KI-Nutzung verbundenen Risiken steigen — sowohl durch die zunehmende Abhängigkeit von dieser Technologie als auch durch neue Risiken, die mit ihrer Weiterentwicklung entstehen.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
„We may utilize machine learning or AI to create efficiencies or opportunities in our processes (such as data analytics, coding, initial drafts of documents, and summarization of research or longer documents) and such use by us, or by third parties providing information or advice to us, may result in us relying on or receiving incorrect, misleading, or incomplete information, which could materially adversely impact our business and financial results."
Wir können Machine Learning oder KI einsetzen, um Effizienzgewinne oder Chancen in unseren Prozessen zu schaffen (etwa Datenanalyse, Programmierung, erste Dokumententwürfe und das Zusammenfassen von Research oder längeren Dokumenten); eine solche Nutzung durch uns oder durch Dritte, die uns Informationen oder Rat liefern, kann dazu führen, dass wir uns auf falsche, irreführende oder unvollständige Informationen verlassen oder solche erhalten, was unser Geschäft und unsere Finanzergebnisse erheblich beeinträchtigen könnte.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
„While our policies require responsible use of AI and machine learning technology, we may be unsuccessful in identifying or resolving potential issues before they arise."
Zwar verlangen unsere Richtlinien einen verantwortungsvollen Umgang mit KI- und Machine-Learning-Technologie, doch gelingt es uns möglicherweise nicht, potenzielle Probleme zu erkennen oder zu lösen, bevor sie auftreten.
10-K · 2026-02-25 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-27 · 10-Q 2025-10-27 · 10-Q 2025-07-28 · 10-Q 2025-04-30 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-28
Rated on July 9, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 29.9%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 43.0%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 90.4%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 100.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 17.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -229 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 29.6%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.8%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
3/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 23.1%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -4.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 37.5%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -21.6%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 17.6x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 8
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 13.0%
- ROCE > 15% 29.6%
- Expected return > 10% -18.0%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Boston Byron L | Co-CEO & Chairman of the Board | Other | 15,667 | 12.89 | 201,948 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Popenoe Smriti Laxman | Co-CEO and President | Other | 19,528 | 12.89 | 251,716 |
The company
About the Company
Dynex Capital, Inc., ein Hypotheken-Immobilien-Investmenttrust, investiert in Wohn- und Gewerbe-Hypothekenpfandbriefe (MBS) in den USA.
- CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.)
- buying own stock
- Employees
- 28
- Headquarters
- Glen Allen, VA
- Address
- 140 East Shore Drive, 23059-5755 Glen Allen, United States
- Phone
- 804 217 5800
- Website
- dynexcapital.com
- IPO Date
- 06/30/1989
- ISIN
- US26817Q8868
- Stock Split
- 1:3 on 06/21/2019
- Stock Split
- 1:4 on 08/02/1999
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 05/27/1997
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Byron L. Boston | Co-CEO & Chairman of the Board | 1959 |
| Smriti Laxman Popenoe C.F.A. | Co-CEO, President & Director | 1969 |
| Michael Sartori | Chief Financial Officer | 1981 |
| Meakin Bennett | Chief Operating Officer | – |
| Terrence J. Connelly Jr. | Chief Investment Officer | – |
| Jeffrey L. Childress | Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Kaitlyn J. Mauritz | Head of Capital Markets & Investor Relations | – |
| Michael Angelo | Chief Legal Counsel & Corporate Secretary | – |
| Wayne E. Brockwell | Senior VP & Portfolio Manager | – |
| Robert M. Nilson Jr. | Chief Risk Officer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 18, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.