ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Not a bankruptcy candidate, but a model whose size pays the manager and its in-house broker-dealer while value per share has fallen 39 percent since the end of 2022.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
ARMOUR Residential is a textbook case of yield hypnosis: the $0.24 monthly dividend has arrived on time since 2024, yet book value per common share fell from $28.90 (end of 2022) to $17.53 (6/30/2026) while the share count more than quadrupled. The business runs at 7.5 times leverage on government-guaranteed mortgage securities; the external manager is paid on capital raised, and nearly half of the borrowing comes from a broker-dealer in the same group. Holders of this stock hold a leveraged rate bet with a high payout, not a savings-account substitute. Not investment advice.
Earnings power & dividend
Distributable Earnings exactly covered the dividend in the second quarter of 2026 ($0.72 per share), and total economic return was 12.79 percent in 2025. But from 2023 through June 2026, $12.20 of dividends was offset by an $11.37 loss in book value.
Book value per share
From $28.90 (12/31/2022) to $17.53 (6/30/2026), down 39 percent; per the annual report, 47.5 percent (2023), 14.8 percent (2024) and 19.6 percent (2025) of dividends counted as return of capital for tax purposes.
Leverage & rate risk
Debt-to-equity of 7.54 to 1 (6/30/2026). By the company’s estimate, a 0.25 percentage point wider spread costs 10.22 percent of equity; a one-point rate move in either direction costs 4.69 to 7.59 percent.
Credit quality & liquidity
94.5 percent of the portfolio is government-guaranteed Agency MBS and 2.7 percent U.S. Treasuries; liquidity of about $1.2 billion and 25 repo counterparties as of June 30, 2026.
Governance & conflicts of interest
Fee based on gross equity raised ($5.81 billion), agreement through 2033 with $383.2 million in contractual fees; 46.8 percent of borrowing and commissions on share sales go to BUCKLER, a broker-dealer controlled by the manager; subordinated capital commitments to BUCKLER totaling up to $325 million (of which $275 million new since February 2026).
Worth Noting
Mortgage REITs are measured by book value per share and total economic return (change in book value plus dividends), not by P/E: GAAP earnings swing with the market value of securities and hedges. All book values are adjusted for the 1-for-5 reverse stock split of September 29, 2023.
Data date: the latest periodic report is the 10-Q for the period ended 6/30/2026 (filed 7/22/2026); all current reports through the dividend confirmation of 10/1/2026 were reviewed. Book value as of 9/30/2026 was not yet available at publication; no current report explains the September 2026 price decline.
Total returns for 2023 and 2024 and the cumulative return since the end of 2022 are our own calculations from book value and declared dividends (no reinvestment, before taxes). Not to be confused: common stock ARR and the 7.00 percent Series C preferred ARR-PRC.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 8, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at ARR since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 12.30 $ to 19.10 $ · Last price: 12.50 $ (As of: October 30, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/30/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: REIT - Mortgage
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc ARR | 1.5 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 100.0 | 138.9 | 444.1 | -6.2 |
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc. NLY | 13.8 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 95.1 | 81.0 | 5.4 | 0.6 |
| AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC | 10.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 129.8 | -60.8 | 1.9 |
| Rithm Capital Corp. RITM | 5.3 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 89.1 | 13.2 | 20.0 | -4.5 |
| Starwood Property Trust Inc STWD | 4.7 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 17.4 | -7.9 | -23.7 |
| Dynex Capital Inc DX | 2.3 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 136.0 | 67.8 | -4.4 |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc BXMT | 1.9 | – | 0.0 | 100.0 | -6.1 | -14.0 | -35.0 |
| Ellington Financial Inc. EFC | 1.4 | – | 0.0 | 100.0 | 59.4 | 139.0 | 0.1 |
| Two Harbors Investments Corp TWO | 1.3 | – | 0.0 | 98.1 | – | -28.4 | 40.6 |
| Median of companies shown | 2.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 70.2 | 5.4 | -4.4 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -100 | 28 | -61 | -8.33 | -203 | 1,092 | 7,978 |
| 2017 | 125 | 276 | 165 | 20.85 | 110 | 1,326 | 8,929 |
| 2018 | -69 | 48 | -123 | -14.60 | 75 | 1,125 | 8,465 |
| 2019 | -217 | -250 | -266 | -22.96 | -41 | 13,237 | 13,272 |
| 2020 | -22 | -215 | -225 | -17.83 | -258 | 5,520 | 5,524 |
| 2021 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0.24 | 12 | 5,273 | 5,277 |
| 2022 | -878 | -105 | -230 | -9.75 | 124 | 1,112 | 9,437 |
| 2023 | 450 | 458 | -68 | -1.58 | 133 | 1,271 | 12,344 |
| 2024 | 240 | 510 | -14 | -0.28 | 261 | 1,361 | 13,548 |
| 2025 | 1,305 | 965 | 323 | 3.42 | 124 | 2,261 | 21,005 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.97 | -139.80 | -223 | -140.40 | – | 90 | 90 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.32 | 33.30 | 368 | 2,413.00 | 7.40 | 102 | 102 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.94 | – | 195 | 437.40 | -38.90 | 25 | 25 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.52 | 19.80 | 394 | -4.40 | 40.50 | -38 | -38 |
| 2025: Q4 | 2.14 | – | 349 | – | 60.70 | 36 | 36 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.46 | -243.80 | 56 | -84.80 | -98.00 | 112 | 112 |
| 2026: Q2 | 0.86 | 191.50 | – | – | – | 210 | 210 |
| 2026: Q3 | -2.26 | -248.70 | – | – | – | 99 | 99 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 9 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 2.88 | 2.85 – 2.91 | 356 | -5.7% | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2.86 | 2.55 – 3.10 | 392 | -0.8% | 6 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -18.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $456.2M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.55B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $58.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 20.0% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
ARMOUR Residential ist ein extern verwalteter Hypotheken-REIT, der mit Repo-Krediten staatlich garantierte US-Hypothekenpapiere (Agency-MBS) hält; künstliche Intelligenz ist weder Produkt noch Umsatzquelle. Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 (10-K) hält aber ausdrücklich fest, dass das Unternehmen, sein Manager ARMOUR Capital Management oder Dienstleister KI in Geschäftsprozessen einsetzen — genannt werden Datenanalyse, Anlagemodellierung, Risikomanagement, Finanzberichterstattung und Cybersicherheit — und dass dafür KI-gestützte Dienste von Drittanbietern genutzt werden. Belegt ist damit ein interner, operativer KI-Einsatz ohne KI-Umsatz und ohne konkrete KI-Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells — nach dem Kriterienkatalog „nutzt“. Die Quartalsberichte (10-Q) und der Geschäftsbericht 2024 enthalten keine KI-Fundstelle.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We, our manager, or third-party service providers use, and may continue to use, artificial intelligence (“AI”) in certain business processes, including but not limited to data analysis, investment modeling, risk management, financial reporting, and cybersecurity."
Wir, unser Manager oder externe Dienstleister setzen künstliche Intelligenz („KI“) in bestimmten Geschäftsprozessen ein und werden dies möglicherweise weiterhin tun, unter anderem in der Datenanalyse, der Anlagemodellierung, dem Risikomanagement, der Finanzberichterstattung und der Cybersicherheit.
10-K · 2026-02-18 · View SEC filing
„We rely on third-party vendors for certain AI-enabled services and solutions."
Für bestimmte KI-gestützte Dienste und Lösungen sind wir auf Drittanbieter angewiesen.
10-K · 2026-02-18 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-07-22 · 10-Q 2026-04-22 · 10-Q 2025-10-22 · 10-Q 2025-07-23 · 10-K 2026-02-18 · 10-K 2025-02-12
Rated on October 8, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years no data
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 29.0%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 58.7%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 453.6%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 97.0%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 18.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 278 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 31.5%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.2%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -45.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 48.4%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% -8.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 18.5x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 7
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 14.3%
- ROCE > 15% 31.5%
- Expected return > 10% -1.2%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Downey Carolyn | Director | Other | 1,193 | 13.83 | 16,499 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Paperin Stewart J | Director | Other | 1,193 | 13.83 | 16,499 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Losyev Sergey | Co-Chief Investment Officer | Buy | 725 | 13.91 | 10,085 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Staton Daniel C | Chairman of the Board | Sell | 35,583 | 15.86 | 564,418 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Losyev Sergey | Co-Chief Investment Officer | Other | 1,118 | 16.32 | 18,246 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Losyev Sergey | Co-Chief Investment Officer | Other | 4,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Macauley Desmond | Co-Chief Investment Officer | Other | 1,335 | 16.32 | 21,787 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Macauley Desmond | Co-Chief Investment Officer | Other | 4,000 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Harper Gordon | CFO | Other | 2,794 | 16.32 | 45,598 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Harper Gordon | CFO | Other | 7,750 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. investiert in Wohn-Hypothekenpfandbriefe (MBS) in den USA.
- Headquarters
- Vero Beach, FL
- Address
- 3001 Ocean Drive, 32963 Vero Beach, United States
- Phone
- 772 617 4340
- Website
- armourreit.com
- IPO Date
- 12/03/2007
- ISIN
- US0423157058
- Stock Split
- 1:5 on 10/02/2023
- Stock Split
- 1:8 on 08/03/2015
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Jeffrey Ulm J.D. | CEO and Vice Chairman | 1958 |
| Gordon Mackay Harper CPA | CFO & Secretary | 1967 |
| Desmond E. Macauley | Co-Chief Investment Officer & Head of Risk Management | 1970 |
| Sergey Losyev C.F.A. | Co-Chief Investment Officer | 1981 |
| Shane Rand | Head of Trading & Senior Portfolio Manager | – |
| Lasse Kokko | VP of Finance & Controller | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 10/21/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/21/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/20/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/20/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 10/01/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 09/24/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 09/11/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/27/2026 Armour Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: October 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.