Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
After the materiality gate: Concentra is a demonstrably strong, defensive company (market leader, revenue up 13.9 percent, operating income rising, Q1 2026 net income up almost 29 percent, dividend and buyback). Not a single find is an existential find: no going concern, no manipulation, no single-customer cluster, no covenant breach (revolver repaid by year-end 2025). The weighty finds — the valuation at an all-time high (P/E around 23), the interest burden stemming from the spin-off (roughly a third of operating income) and the regulatory dependence (61 percent of revenue) — are price and structure finds. None of them touches the substance of the business: the profit stays positive and grows again, the operating business rises reliably, the market position holds — hence "Quality confirmed". The rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the metrics scanners answer. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Concentra (NYSE: CON), America's largest occupational health provider since its spin-off from Select Medical, fires in 17 of our scanners and trades at an all-time high. But a look into the annual report (10-K) opens a gap: revenue ($2.16 billion, up 14 percent) and operating income keep climbing — yet net income has stood still since the separation, because the term loan drove interest expense from $0.2 to $109 million. Add to that: 61 percent of revenue hangs on state-regulated injury reimbursement. Not investment advice — just the sober question of what an all-time-high chart still carries when profit has long stopped growing with it.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 18, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CON since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 16 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 31.70 $ — 93% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIConcentra setzt Künstliche Intelligenz und maschinelles Lernen laut Geschäftsbericht (10-K) operativ ein — es baut Vorhersagemodelle aus historischen Daten, um Behandlungsqualität, Compliance und Effizienz zu unterstützen, unter anderem um Patienten-Noncompliance vorherzusagen und die Aktenprüfung zu automatisieren. KI ist damit ein internes Werkzeug, aber keine Umsatzquelle (kein KI-Produkt), und die Filings stellen KI nicht als existenzielle Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells dar — KI erscheint dort sonst nur als Cyber-/Regulierungsthema (Boilerplate).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We are leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to build predictive models using historical data with the goal of supporting quality patient care, compliance and operations efficiency, such as by using tools that help predict patient noncompliance and automate chart reviews."
Wir nutzen Künstliche Intelligenz und maschinelles Lernen, um aus historischen Daten Vorhersagemodelle zu bauen — mit dem Ziel, Behandlungsqualität, Compliance und betriebliche Effizienz zu unterstützen, etwa durch Werkzeuge, die helfen, die Noncompliance von Patienten vorherzusagen und die Aktenprüfung zu automatisieren.
„We are leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to build predictive models to support patient care."
Wir nutzen Künstliche Intelligenz und maschinelles Lernen, um Vorhersagemodelle zur Unterstützung der Patientenversorgung zu bauen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-26 · 10-K 2025-03-03 · 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-07
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable Commitments consistently keptConcentra has held eight calls since its July 2024 IPO and has met or beaten every annual outlook it issued: the 2024 target was slightly exceeded, the 2025 outlook was raised three times and finished above the company's own range, and the 2026 outlook was already lifted after the first quarter. Commitments on the Nova and Pivot acquisitions and on the separation from Select Medical were delivered on time or early, with progress quantified quarter by quarter. Only one area invites criticism: the size of the Florida fee increase was never given as a separate state-level figure despite an analyst asking three times. What management actually promised, though, was general guidance on where states would land on reimbursement, and that arrived with the January 2025 outlook; in the 2025-Q1 call management volunteered the effect via revenue per visit. Shifting reference points in labour market data and a loose self-ranking in the onsite market are matters of style, not contradictions - in both cases the underlying figures were disclosed alongside.
8 calls reviewed, 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Guidance met and repeatedly raised
The first annual outlook came in the 2024-Q3 call: about USD 1.9bn revenue, USD 370m to 375m adjusted EBITDA and net leverage of 3.5 to 3.6. Per the 2025-Q4 call, 2024 adjusted EBITDA came in at USD 376.9m, and per the 2024-Q4 call net leverage ended at 3.46 - both better than promised. The 2025 outlook issued in January 2025 (USD 2.1bn revenue, USD 410m to 425m EBITDA) was raised three times, in 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3; the year closed, per the 2025-Q4 call, at USD 2.2bn revenue and USD 431.9m EBITDA, above the last stated ceiling, with net leverage at 3.4 instead of the promised 3.5. In the 2026-Q1 call the annual outlook was lifted again, to USD 2.275bn to 2.375bn revenue and USD 460m to 480m EBITDA. Across eight calls not a single numerical commitment was missed.
Acquisitions and separation delivered on schedule
In the 2024-Q4 call management promised to capture the USD 7m of Nova synergies by Q1 2026 and to reach an effective purchase multiple below 7.5. Progress was quantified each quarter: just over 70 percent in 2025-Q2, just over 85 percent in 2025-Q3, and complete by the 2026-Q1 call, where management said it was comfortably ahead of plan. Same picture at Pivot, where the promised multiple below 9 was beaten according to the 2026-Q1 call. The separation from Select Medical is also running early: hiring progress went from about 50 percent in 2025-Q2 to two thirds in 2025-Q3, above 80 percent in 2025-Q4 and more than 95 percent in 2026-Q1, with completion pulled forward from November 2026 to summer 2026. Verifiable quarter-by-quarter progress figures like these are rare and speak for management.
Florida rate: quantified late, promise still kept
In the very first call as a listed company (2024-Q2) an analyst asked how big the Florida fee increase would be. The answer was an open refusal for the moment: not disclosing the impact at this time, more guidance to come. In 2024-Q3 that was refined to more guidance early in 2025 on where the states would land on reimbursement - stated in the same passage as the announcement of the 2025 outlook. Both arrived: per the 2024-Q4 call, the outlook published in January 2025 explicitly included all known fee schedule changes including Florida, together with the statement that rate growth would exceed the long-term average even excluding Florida. A state-by-state breakdown was never promised and was ruled out in principle in 2024-Q4. In the 2025-Q1 call management then volunteered the effect in its prepared remarks: work comp revenue per visit up 7.1 percent including Florida versus about 5 percent excluding it. What remains open to criticism is the pace - three quarters until a number - not the keeping of the promise.
Onsite ranking loose but not contradictory
In the 2025-Q1 call the CEO placed the onsite business at the smaller end of the market and spoke of a top 10 position. In the 2025-Q2 call, shortly after the Pivot deal closed, the CFO called the company a top 5 player in terms of scale. In the 2025-Q3 call the CEO again said probably a top 10, and still relatively small compared with the number one, two and three players. These are not irreconcilable: a top 5 player is also inside the top 10, and the same sentence identifies the top three as the providers focused on advanced primary care, whereas the top 5 remark refers to the broader onsite market by scale. The CEO already used the top 10 formula in 2024-Q3, long before Pivot, and unchanged afterwards - so there is no reversal. The hard numbers stayed consistent across all calls: about USD 60m of onsite revenue in 2024, about USD 120m after Pivot, and most recently an annual run rate approaching USD 150m. Anyone assessing the scale of the segment should use those figures rather than the ranking phrases.
Emphasised metrics shift, but disclosed
In 2024-Q3 and 2024-Q4 management explained visit trends with official labour market data. In the 2025-Q3 call it noted that its own work comp visit numbers had largely lacked correlation with those statistics recently and advised against using them as the sole proxy. The remark came in the prepared statement, together with the correlations that still hold - employer services versus JOLTS data - and the quarter was strong, not weak: what was being explained was performance better than the official data implied. In the 2026-Q1 call management repeated the same assessment when asked. In the 2025-Q4 call the statistic was narrowed to blue-collar employment at plus 0.4 percent; both figures, including plus 0.1 percent for the total market, were given and the choice was explained. Similar in employer services: its return to growth was the big news in 2025-Q1, and when growth eased to 0.7 percent in 2026-Q1 a dedicated passage on the segment's weaker margin followed. That argument was not new - as early as 2024-Q4 employer services visits were described as lower revenue and lower margin visits - and the passage was explicitly flagged as a reminder of a known dynamic. What stands is that the emphasis moves with the data; nothing was withheld in the process.
Management promises
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2024-Q2 kept
More guidance on the impact of the Florida fee increase would follow; refined in 2024-Q3 to a statement early in 2025 on where the states land on reimbursement.
The 2025 outlook came in January 2025 and, per the 2024-Q4 call, included all known fee schedule changes including Florida, plus a statement on rate growth excluding Florida. In the 2025-Q1 call management volunteered the effect: work comp revenue per visit up 7.1 percent including Florida versus about 5 percent excluding it. A state-by-state breakdown was never promised.
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2024-Q3 kept
For 2024, about USD 1.9bn revenue, USD 370m to 375m adjusted EBITDA and net leverage of 3.5 to 3.6.
Delivered USD 376.9m EBITDA and net leverage of 3.46 - above and better than its own range respectively.
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2024-Q4 kept
Employer services visit volumes should turn flat year over year in 2025 and slightly positive later in the year.
Already in 2025-Q1 visits excluding Nova were up 0.9 percent, then 2.0 percent in 2025-Q2 and 1.9 percent in 2025-Q3 - earlier than promised.
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2024-Q4 kept
The USD 7m of Nova synergies should be captured by Q1 2026, with an effective purchase multiple below 7.5 by year three.
Synergy capture was quantified each quarter and completed per the 2026-Q1 call, comfortably ahead of plan according to management. The multiple target itself can only be tested in 2028.
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2024-Q4 kept
Net leverage should be back to about 3.5 by year-end 2025 despite the Nova acquisition.
Year-end 2025 came in at 3.4, better than promised, even though Pivot was also acquired and shares were repurchased during the year.
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2025-Q1 kept
No further larger acquisitions for the remainder of 2025, focus on integration.
Reaffirmed in 2025-Q2 and kept: only small one-to-five-centre deals followed, the next one not until January 2026.
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2025-Q2 open
Net leverage should fall below 3.0 by the end of 2026.
As of 2026-Q1 the ratio stands at 3.4; after the raised outlook management expects to end the year comfortably below 3.0. Testable only in the fourth-quarter 2026 call.
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2025-Q4 open
For 2026, revenue of USD 2.25bn to 2.35bn and adjusted EBITDA of USD 450m to 470m.
Already raised after a strong first quarter in 2026-Q1 to USD 2.275bn to 2.375bn revenue and USD 460m to 480m EBITDA. The full year is still outstanding.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 8 transcripts 2024-Q2 through 2026-Q1.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 0.6% below the current price.
- Consensus
- Strong Buy
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 0.42 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.17 | – | 465 | 5.50 | 4.60 | 94 | 77 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.31 | -20.60 | 501 | 7.10 | 7.80 | 12 | -4 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.35 | -14.90 | 551 | 15.20 | 8.10 | 88 | 63 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.38 | 8.10 | 573 | 17.00 | 8.40 | 61 | 39 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.27 | 61.20 | 539 | 15.90 | 6.40 | 119 | 181 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.39 | 28.20 | 570 | 13.70 | 8.90 | 21 | 10 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Market leader in U.S. occupational health, a defensive, legally anchored niche market: roughly 628 centers in 41 states, 411 onsite clinics, nationwide telemedicine. Reliable operating growth — revenue up 13.9 percent to $2.16 billion (2025), operating income up to $334.0 million.
Net income stands still despite rising revenue: $179.9 million (2023), $166.4 million (2025). The cause is the interest expense that exploded out of the spin-off term loan (roughly $850 million, upsized to $950 million) — from $0.2 (2023) via $47.7 to $109.3 million (2025). At least: Q1 2026 net income up almost 29 percent again.
61 percent of revenue comes from state-price-regulated workers' compensation — reimbursement is set by the states through fee schedules, not by the market. Add geographic clustering: roughly 16 percent of centers each in California and Texas. Single-customer concentration, by contrast, is low.
$1.48 billion of goodwill stands against only $393 million of equity (52 percent of total assets) — the 47 percent return on equity shines mostly because of the thin denominator. A listing history of under two years, continuing transition services agreements with Select, founder Ortenzio as board chairman; plus a dividend and a $100 million buyback program.
Ambitious but not extreme: P/E around 23, EV/EBITDA around 12, price-to-sales around 1.9 (mid-2026) — the price of a winner, not a discount. Against that stand 17 scanner hits and a price at an all-time high; roughly eight analysts cover the stock, with an average price target in the order of $31.
Concentra is a genuine strength stock: market leader in defensive U.S. occupational health, growing reliably on the operating side, with 17 scanner hits and a price at an all-time high. But the quality has its price — and a gap the chart does not show: despite rising revenue, net income has stood still since the separation, because the spin-off loan drove interest expense to $109 million. Add 61 percent of revenue tied to state-regulated reimbursement, $1.48 billion of goodwill on $393 million of equity and barely two years of independence. A winner whose good news is partly already in the price. Not investment advice.
- Materiality gate (find by find): (1) Standstill net income / interest expense from the spin-off loan — affects roughly a third of operating income ($109.3 of $334.0 million); profit stays positive and grows again in Q1 2026 (+29%) → price find, no bearing on the rating. (2) 61 percent of revenue from state-regulated workers' compensation — defensive market, gradual fee-schedule changes, no state existentially dominant (CA/TX each 16% of centers); trigger case = a revenue/margin dent, the company stays intact → price/structure find. (3) Valuation at an all-time high (P/E ~23, EV/EBITDA ~12) → price find. (4) Goodwill of $1.48 billion against $393 million of equity — balance-sheet optics without a running cash effect → blemish (no vote). (5) Short independence, Select/Ortenzio entanglement — Select holds 0%, transition services are administrative, no quantifiable revenue/earnings share → blemish. No substance find (no going-concern doubt, no manipulation, no covenant breach, equity positive); price and structure finds do not enter the rating → it stays "Quality confirmed", the price question is answered by the metrics scanners.
- Valuation metrics are orders of magnitude as of mid-2026 (P/E ~23, EV/EBITDA ~12, price-to-sales ~1.9); annual figures refer to fiscal year 2025 (as of 12/31/2025), quarterly figures to Q1 2026 (as of 03/31/2026). Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not a buy argument.
- The revenue, operating income, net income and interest expense series come from the SEC XBRL data (companyfacts) and were reconciled against the annual report (10-K) 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) Q1 2026. The term loan was issued at roughly $850 million at the separation and upsized to roughly $950 million in 2025 in the course of the Nova acquisition.
- AI dossier: category "nutzt" (rated 07/10/2026) — per the annual report (10-K), Concentra uses artificial intelligence and machine learning operationally (predictive models, automated record review), but sells no AI products and does not name AI as an existential threat to its business model.
- EDGAR delta check as of July 18, 2026: since the German first publication (July 10, 2026) only one 8-K of July 10, 2026 (Item 5.02 — consulting agreement with Dr. John R. Anderson, the Chief Medical Officer retiring effective December 31, 2026; his retirement had already been disclosed in April 2026) plus routine Form 4/144 notices. Not material to this analysis.
About the Company
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. bietet arbeitsmedizinische Dienstleistungen in den USA an.
| Employees | 9,967 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Addison, TX |
| Website | concentra.com |
| IPO Date | 25. Jul 2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| William Keith Newton | CEO & Director | 1963 |
| Matthew T. DiCanio M.B.A. | President & CFO | 1983 |
| John A. deLorimier | Executive VP and Chief Information & Technology Officer | 1960 |
| Timothy F. Ryan | Executive VP & Chief Legal Counsel | 1961 |
| John R. Anderson DO, FACOEM | Executive VP & Chief Medical Officer | 1950 |
| Su Zan Nelson CPA | Executive VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1964 |
| Bill Chapman | Vice President of Strategy & Investor Relations | – |
| Thomas A. Devasia | Executive VP and Chief Marketing & Innovation Officer | 1970 |
| Danielle Kendall | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 1969 |
| Giovanni Gallara | Executive VP & Chief Clinical Services Officer | 1975 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.