Blue Bird Corp
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today bets that the record margins are the new normal, that the backlog keeps climbing toward its old highs, and that Washington extends the electric-bus funding — at 19 times trailing earnings and less than 1 percent below the all-time high. Whoever waits checks three lines in every quarterly report (10-Q): the backlog in units (most recently 3,560), the status of the fourth CSBP round, and unit volume in the bus segment — and keeps in mind that the third quarter of fiscal 2026 carries a one-time charge of roughly $28.1 million from the pension plan termination. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Blue Bird is a real turnaround with a real moat: record revenue, record profit, a 15 percent EBITDA margin, net cash and a dealer network that has held for decades. But the three biggest levers of the story from here do not sit in Blue Bird’s books: an EPA funding round with "no further communication" for over a year, a tariff calendar that knocked the backlog down 36 percent, and a selling family that is now major shareholder, board member, biggest dealer and landlord at once. Whoever buys just below the all-time high buys a very good company at a price that budgets little disappointment. Not investment advice.
Business performance & market position
Record fiscal 2025: $1,480.1 million in revenue (+9.9 percent), $127.7 million in net income, adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.0 percent after 7.8 percent in FY 2023; the only independent U.S. school bus maker, with an exclusive dealer network and roughly 64 percent market share in alternative powertrains (10-K FY 2025).
Balance sheet & capital returns
$275.9 million in cash against roughly $88 million in bank debt (03/28/2026, before the $63 million cash portion of the Micro Bird deal), a $150 million credit line untouched, Altman-Z around 8.5; buyback program topped up by $100 million in August 2025, $59.4 million of repurchases since October 2024 (10-K FY 2025, 10-Q as of 03/28/2026).
Order book & tariff cycle
Backlog down from roughly 4,800 to 3,070 units in the tariff year (minus 36 percent) because customers, per the quarterly report, deferred purchases on incalculable tariff charges; partial recovery to 3,560 units (03/28/2026), but units sold fell 6.4 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 — higher prices are masking shrinking volume.
Subsidy dependence of the electric story
Whether the fourth round of the $5 billion EPA program ($965 million) will ever be awarded is "currently not known" per the 10-K; the $80 million DOE grant sits in the new administration’s review, and the electric-bus subscription joint venture Clean Bus Solutions was buried after a $7.4 million impairment — against which stands a $42.8 million customer advance for a large electric-bus order (10-Q as of 03/28/2026).
Governance & concentration
After the Micro Bird buyout ($201.8 million, 70 percent in stock), the Girardin family combines four roles: 7.88 percent shareholder, board seat, biggest dealer (roughly a fifth of first-half fiscal 2026 revenue via Superbird) and landlord — disclosed and approved, but never neutral again; add a single plant complex and single-source powertrains from Cummins/Accelera (8-K/A of 05/04/2026, 10-K FY 2025).
Valuation & market technicals
17 scanner hits from momentum and quality, less than 1 percent below the all-time high, up 612 percent in four years — at a P/E around 19 (trailing) resp. 16 (current year) and a Piotroski of 7 of 9 (metrics data as of July 8, 2026); no bubble level, but the market is paying for the record margins to continue, and insiders recently sold fourteen times against one purchase.
Worth Noting
BLBD landed on the research list via the momentum/stage-2 run of our in-house stock scanner (scanner run of July 17, 2026) — 17 hits, unusually drawn from momentum and quality filters at once; there was no Reddit hype.
Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, Piotroski, Altman-Z, performance) use trailing twelve-month figures as of the July 8, 2026 data cut-off; the one-time pension settlement loss (Q3 FY 2026, roughly $28.1 million, non-cash) and the Micro Bird consolidation from Q3 FY 2026 are not yet reflected in them.
Price and valuation figures dated July 8, 2026 (about $79, roughly $2.5 billion market value excluding exchangeable shares); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Blue Bird’s fiscal year ends in late September/early October — all quarterly references carry the fiscal-year offset.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at BLBD since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 46.60 $ to 81.50 $ · Last price: 60.80 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Bird Corp BLBD | 2.0 | 15.1 | 5.6 | 20.6 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 |
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | 382.8 | 37.9 | 24.6 | 29.7 | 18.2 | 4.3 | 78.8 |
| Deere & Company DE | 187.6 | 38.6 | 20.2 | 25.2 | 17.5 | -11.6 | 48.0 |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | 61.8 | 25.4 | 19.5 | 13.7 | 10.4 | -15.5 | 19.2 |
| CNH Industrial N.V. CNH | 17.5 | 43.3 | 18.5 | 17.8 | 2.7 | -8.8 | 26.1 |
| Oshkosh Corporation OSK | 9.2 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 15.9 | 3.6 | -2.9 | 9.9 |
| AGCO Corporation AGCO | 8.8 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 25.3 | 3.9 | -13.6 | 12.4 |
| Federal Signal Corporation FSS | 6.9 | 25.8 | 15.2 | 29.2 | 16.0 | 17.1 | -8.5 |
| Terex Corporation TEX | 6.7 | 27.6 | 14.5 | 16.8 | -3.9 | 5.7 | 11.3 |
| Median of companies shown | 9.2 | 25.8 | 15.2 | 20.6 | 10.4 | -2.9 | 12.4 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 932 | 27 | 7 | 0.32 | 25 | -87 | 278 |
| 2017 | 991 | 60 | 29 | 1.16 | 48 | -59 | 296 |
| 2018 | 1,025 | 35 | 31 | 1.08 | 48 | -28 | 307 |
| 2019 | 1,019 | 44 | 24 | 0.90 | 56 | -68 | 365 |
| 2020 | 879 | 22 | 12 | 0.45 | 3 | -53 | 317 |
| 2021 | 684 | 7 | 0 | -0.01 | -54 | -33 | 356 |
| 2022 | 801 | -41 | -46 | -1.48 | -24 | 1 | 366 |
| 2023 | 1,133 | 52 | 24 | 0.74 | 120 | 40 | 418 |
| 2024 | 1,347 | 139 | 106 | 3.16 | 111 | 160 | 525 |
| 2025 | 1,480 | 167 | 128 | 3.88 | 176 | 255 | 625 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.86 | 6.80 | 314 | -1.20 | 9.20 | 26 | 22 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 359 | 3.70 | 7.30 | 28 | 19 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.12 | 31.10 | 398 | 19.40 | 9.20 | 57 | 52 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.11 | 52.00 | 409 | 16.90 | 8.90 | 65 | 61 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.94 | 9.50 | 333 | 6.10 | 9.20 | 37 | 31 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.90 | 13.60 | 353 | -1.70 | 8.30 | 48 | 40 |
| 2026: Q2 | 5.27 | 370.50 | 517 | 29.90 | 35.80 | 31 | 31 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 18 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
- Buffett Criteria (Buffettology)
- Buffett: Owner Earnings Yield
- Institutional Accumulation
- Pros 80%
- QARP — Quality at a Fair Price
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- Gary Antonacci: Dual Momentum (Stock Adaptation)
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Near 52-Week High
- Stan Weinstein: Checklist
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 4.82 | 4.68 – 5.09 | 1,752 | 10.2% | 6 |
| 09/30/2027 | 4.79 | 3.82 – 5.79 | 2,027 | -0.7% | 6 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 1.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $153.1M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1.96B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $178.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 48.2% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 17.07.2026 gegen die Geschäftsberichte (10-K) für die Geschäftsjahre 2025 (eingereicht 24.11.2025) und 2024 (25.11.2024) sowie die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 28.03.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Blue Bird findet sich kein einziger Treffer zu „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „generative“ oder verwandten KI-Begriffen — weder als Umsatzquelle noch als operativer Einsatz noch als konkretes Geschäftsrisiko. Blue Bird ist ein Schulbus-Hersteller (Typ C/D, Propan-/Benzin-/Elektroantriebe); die Berichte behandeln Zölle, Förderprogramme (EPA Clean School Bus Program, DOE-Zuschuss), die Micro-Bird-Übernahme und Lieferketten, aber keinerlei KI-Bezug. Dokumentierter Negativ-Befund nach Kriterienkatalog → „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2026-02-04 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2025-11-24 · 10-K 2024-11-25
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 22.7%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 13.8%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 2.0%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 20.2%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 20.5%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 3.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 139 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 150 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 43.0%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.3%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
8/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 5.3%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 17.0%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 22.6%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 11.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT -0.8x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 65.5%
- ROCE > 15% 43.0%
- Expected return > 10% 19.8%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Thau Daniel Mark | Director | Buy | 350 | 64.37 | 22,530 |
The company
About the Company
Blue Bird Corporation entwirft, konstruiert, fertigt und verkauft gemeinsam mit ihren Tochtergesellschaften Schulbusse in den USA, Kanada und international. Das Unternehmen ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Bus und Parts.
- Employees
- 2,008
- Headquarters
- Macon, GA
- Address
- 3920 Arkwright Road, 31210 Macon, United States
- Phone
- 478 822 2801
- Website
- blue-bird.com
- IPO Date
- 03/20/2014
- ISIN
- US0953061068
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John Wyskiel | President, CEO & Director | 1965 |
| Razvan Radulescu | Chief Financial Officer | 1975 |
| Ted M. Scartz J.D. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1971 |
| Jeff Sanfrey | Chief Operating Officer | 1973 |
| Tim Gordon | Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing | – |
| David M. Pasternak | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | – |
| Eric Boule | Senior Vice President of Micro Bird | – |
| Lyndon Lie | Senior Vice President of Engineering | – |
| Craig West | Vice President ? Corporate Controller & Treasurer | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.