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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
CAT

Caterpillar Inc

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · listed since 1962

798.60$ +2.0% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Quality confirmed Service target dropped

Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.

Why this colour

Whoever buys today bets that the $62.7 billion order book converts into years of rising profits before tariffs, price pressure or the cycle catch up with a valuation near 50 times earnings — the dividend itself, at a 32 percent payout ratio, is not the bottleneck. Whoever waits checks three lines in every quarterly report (10-Q): the firm backlog (does it keep growing beyond $62.7 billion?), actual tariff costs against the $2.6 billion forecast, and price realization (does it stay positive as in Q1 2026?). An Aristocrat rarely loses its title overnight — an overvaluation can correct much faster. The decision is yours.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

Caterpillar is the rare case where the label is accurate and can still mislead: the 32-year dividend streak is SEC-documented, conservatively funded at a payout ratio around 32 percent, and complemented by a $62.7 billion order book filled by the power hunger of AI data centers. Against that stand a 15 percent profit decline in 2025, an expected $2.6 billion tariff bill for 2026, a built-in captive lender levered 8 to 1 — and a valuation near 50 times earnings at a 0.6 percent dividend yield. Whoever invests here is not buying the dividend but the continuation of the Power & Energy boom at full price. Not investment advice.

Dividend quality

32 consecutive years of higher annual dividends, a quarterly dividend since 1933, the June 10, 2026 increase of 8 percent to $1.63 per quarter — at a payout ratio of only about 32 percent of 2025 earnings and 29 percent of MP&E free cash flow (8-K dated 06/11/2026; 10-K 2025).

Order book & AI power demand

Firm backlog more than doubled from $30.0 billion (12/31/2024) via $51.2 billion (12/31/2025) to $62.7 billion (03/31/2026); the main driver per the 10-K is data center power demand for cloud and generative AI in the Power & Energy segment (2025 segment profit: $6.4 billion, up 12 percent).

Profit trend & tariffs

In 2025, profit per share fell from $22.05 to $18.81 (minus 15 percent) and the operating margin from 20.2 to 16.5 percent — on tariffs (~$1.8 billion) and price concessions ($817 million); for 2026 the company expects about $2.6 billion of tariff impact, up to 20 percent more without mitigating actions (10-K 2025). Q1 2026 swung back up with revenue up 22 percent and $5.47 per share.

Valuation

P/E near 50, price-to-sales near 7, price-to-book near 25, dividend yield near 0.6 percent (as of July 18, 2026) — the cyclical is priced like a growth stock; historically the P/E mostly sat at 10 to 20.

Balance sheet & Cat Financial

The industrial business generated $9.5 billion of free cash flow (2025), Piotroski 8 of 9, Altman-Z near 7 and a stated mid-A rating goal — but captive lender Cat Financial carries $41.6 of the $95.6 billion in total assets at a covenant leverage of 8.03:1 and interest coverage of 1.53:1 (10-Q as of 03/31/2026).

Capital allocation

Buybacks of $5.2 billion (2025) plus $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, at monthly average prices of $627 to $700, halved the cash pile to $4.1 billion; the share count fell a good 2 percent within a year — a booster per share, and an expensive entry price if the cycle turns.

Worth Noting

CAT made the research list as rank 1 of our in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner (U.S. selection, as of July 18, 2026) — the opener of our series on the top 20 of that selection.

Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, P/B, Piotroski, Altman-Z, return on equity) use trailing twelve-month figures as of July 18, 2026; the high return on equity around 51 percent is partly a product of buybacks shrinking the equity base ($18.7 billion as of 03/31/2026).

Price and market value figures (~$1,050, ~$500 billion) from the July 18, 2026 feed, sanity-checked against 460.6 million shares outstanding per the 10-Q as of March 31, 2026; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.

Read the Full Deep Dive Caterpillar Stock: 32 Straight Dividend Hikes, a $62.7 Billion Backlog — and a Yield Down to 0.6 Percent Caterpillar is the textbook Dividend Aristocrat: 32 consecutive years of higher annual dividends, a quarterly payout since 1933 — and rank 1 in the U.S. selection of our in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner (as of July 18, 2026). We read the annual reports (10-K), the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026, and the June 2026 dividend announcement: an order backlog that more than doubled from $30.0 billion to $62.7 billion in 15 months because AI data centers need power — but also a profit that fell 15 percent in 2025, an expected $2.6 billion tariff bill for 2026, and a valuation that prices the machinery maker like a growth stock. Not investment advice — just a reminder that a royal title says nothing about the price of admission. Read the analysis →

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CAT since then.

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Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 450.70 $ to 1,064.90 $ · Last price: 798.60 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 382.8$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 460m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 99.7%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. 1.6

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. 16.40%
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. 48.90%
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. 77.70%
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). 72.50%
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. -0.01%
Perf. 1Y ?Price performance over the last 12 months. 78.80%
Perf. 3Y ?Price performance over the last 3 years. 198.43%
Perf. 5Y ?Price performance over the last 5 years. 335.77%
Perf. 10Y ?Price performance over the last 10 years. 1,112.24%
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (03/17/1980) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. 38,318.65%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 823.20$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 842.70$
MA 200 Days ?Moving average of the last 200 trading days — the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. 782.90$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 44.6
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 29.5%
Volatility 250 Days ?Price swings over the last 250 trading days (roughly one market year), annualized. 39.6%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E. 37.9
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 25.6
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey. 1.4
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. 18.7
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. 5.1
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. 24.6
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up. 29.3

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. 29.7%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. 18.2%
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. 14.5%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? 51.3%
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). 9.0%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. 19.5%
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. 3.4
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. 7.65
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. very solid 8 out of 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 22.20%
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 30.20%
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. 4.29%
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 10.50%
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 22.40%

Dividend

Dividend Yield ?Annual dividend divided by the current price: what percentage of your investment comes back as a payout each year. 0.80%
Dividend Per Share (TTM) ?Sum of dividends paid per share over the last 12 months. 6.16$
Payout Ratio ?Share of profit paid out as dividends. Over 100% means the company is paying out more than it earns — not sustainable long-term. 25.9%
Years Without a Cut ?How many years in a row the dividend hasn't been cut — a measure of reliability. 12Years
Increase Streak ?How many years in a row the dividend has been raised — the gold standard for dividend payers. 12Years

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line. 2
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks. Top 10% 92
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth. 71
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. B (73 out of 100)

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
Caterpillar Inc CAT 382.8 37.9 24.6 29.7 18.2 4.3 78.8
Deere & Company DE 187.6 38.6 20.2 25.2 17.5 -11.6 48.0
PACCAR Inc PCAR 61.8 25.4 19.5 13.7 10.4 -15.5 19.2
CNH Industrial N.V. CNH 17.5 43.3 18.5 17.8 2.7 -8.8 26.1
Oshkosh Corporation OSK 9.2 16.2 9.1 15.9 3.6 -2.9 9.9
AGCO Corporation AGCO 8.8 11.7 9.8 25.3 3.9 -13.6 12.4
Federal Signal Corporation FSS 6.9 25.8 15.2 29.2 16.0 17.1 -8.5
Terex Corporation TEX 6.7 27.6 14.5 16.8 -3.9 5.7 11.3
Alamo Group Inc ALG 2.1 20.4 10.1 24.2 10.1 -1.5 -15.8
Median of companies shown 9.2 25.8 15.2 24.2 10.1 -2.9 12.4

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2016 · Revenue: 38,537 $M 2016 · Operating income: 1,162 $M 2016 · Net income: -67 $M 2017 · Revenue: 45,462 $M 2017 · Operating income: 4,460 $M 2017 · Net income: 754 $M 2018 · Revenue: 54,722 $M 2018 · Operating income: 8,293 $M 2018 · Net income: 6,147 $M 2019 · Revenue: 53,800 $M 2019 · Operating income: 8,290 $M 2019 · Net income: 6,093 $M 2020 · Revenue: 41,748 $M 2020 · Operating income: 4,553 $M 2020 · Net income: 2,998 $M 2021 · Revenue: 50,971 $M 2021 · Operating income: 6,878 $M 2021 · Net income: 6,489 $M 2022 · Revenue: 59,427 $M 2022 · Operating income: 7,904 $M 2022 · Net income: 6,705 $M 2023 · Revenue: 67,060 $M 2023 · Operating income: 12,966 $M 2023 · Net income: 10,335 $M 2024 · Revenue: 64,809 $M 2024 · Operating income: 13,072 $M 2024 · Net income: 10,792 $M 2025 · Revenue: 67,589 $M 2025 · Operating income: 11,210 $M 2025 · Net income: 8,873 $M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2016 38,537 1,162 -67 -0.11 5,639 13,213 74,704
2017 45,462 4,460 754 1.26 5,706 13,766 76,962
2018 54,722 8,293 6,147 10.26 6,558 14,080 78,509
2019 53,800 8,290 6,093 10.74 6,912 14,588 78,453
2020 41,748 4,553 2,998 5.46 6,327 15,331 78,324
2021 50,971 6,878 6,489 11.83 7,198 16,516 82,793
2022 59,427 7,904 6,705 12.64 7,766 15,869 81,943
2023 67,060 12,966 10,335 20.12 12,885 19,494 87,476
2024 64,809 13,072 10,792 22.05 12,035 19,491 87,764
2025 67,589 11,210 8,873 18.92 11,739 21,318 98,585

Quarters

Quarterly Figures

Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.

Revenue & Profit

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Margins

Per Share

Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.

None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.

These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.

The figures could not be loaded right now.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 16,215.0 $M Q4 2025: Q1 · 14,249.0 $M Q1 2025: Q2 · 16,569.0 $M Q2 2025: Q3 · 17,638.0 $M Q3 2025: Q4 · 19,133.0 $M Q4 2026: Q1 · 17,415.0 $M Q1 2026: Q2 · 20,543.0 $M Q2

Source: fundamental data

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2024: Q4 5.73 8.60 16,215 -5.00 17.20 3,393 2,356
2025: Q1 4.20 -27.00 14,249 -9.80 14.10 1,289 371
2025: Q2 4.62 -15.60 16,569 -0.70 13.20 3,122 2,167
2025: Q3 4.86 -3.90 17,638 9.50 13.00 3,737 4,589
2025: Q4 5.12 -10.70 19,133 18.00 12.50 3,591 3,147
2026: Q1 5.47 30.30 17,415 22.20 14.60 1,870 1,547
2026: Q2 7.77 68.20 20,543 24.00 17.50 4,371 3,784

What Do These Terms Mean?

EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Compare with other stocks →

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 8 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Backtested Scanners

Best Hits

Growth

Quality & Balance Sheet

Aktien.Guide

Research

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus Sell 1 = Strong buy … 5 = Strong sell
Analyst Ratings 28
Price Target (average) 975.61$
Distance to price 22.2% The price target sits 22.2% above the current price.

Distribution of Recommendations

Strong Buy 11
Buy 3
Hold 14
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Estimates by Fiscal Year

Estimates by Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year EPS Estimate ($) EPS Range ($) Revenue Estimate ($M) Expected Growth Analysts
12/31/2026 27.19 24.26 – 29.15 79,153 42.6% 27
12/31/2027 32.38 28.58 – 36.23 88,053 19.1% 27

Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.

Valuation

What is priced in?

Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.

Today’s market value implies roughly 18.0% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).

What is priced in?
Free cash flow (last twelve months) $8.99B
Market cap $382.75B
Free cash flow in year ten $47.03B
Terminal value as a share of market value 64.7%

For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 12.1% per year.

It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.

A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Neutral

Caterpillar verkauft keine KI — der Umsatz stammt aus Bau- und Bergbaumaschinen, Motoren, Turbinen und der Absatzfinanzierung (Cat Financial). In den sechs geprüften Filings (10-K 2025 und 2024, vier 10-Q bis zum 31.03.2026) erscheint Künstliche Intelligenz je Bericht höchstens ein einziges Mal — stets nur als externer Nachfrage-Treiber für die Stromerzeugungs-Sparte (Rechenzentrums-Ausbau für Cloud-Computing und generative KI füllt das Power-&-Energy-Auftragsbuch); das 10-Q zum 31.03.2025 nennt KI gar nicht. Es gibt weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle (Motoren und Turbinen sind keine KI-Produkte) noch dokumentierten operativen KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko in den Risk Factors — nach dem Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund, daher Neutral.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In Power & Energy, we anticipate growth in Power Generation for both reciprocating engines and turbines and turbine-related services in 2026, driven by increasing energy demand to support data center build-out related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)."

In Power & Energy erwarten wir für 2026 Wachstum in der Stromerzeugung sowohl bei Hubkolbenmotoren als auch bei Turbinen und turbinenbezogenen Dienstleistungen, getrieben von der steigenden Energienachfrage zur Unterstützung des Rechenzentrums-Ausbaus im Zusammenhang mit Cloud-Computing und generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).

10-K · 2026-02-13 · View SEC filing

„Demand remains robust, driven by data center growth related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)."

Die Nachfrage bleibt robust, getrieben vom Rechenzentrums-Wachstum im Zusammenhang mit Cloud-Computing und generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).

10-Q · 2025-11-03 · View SEC filing

Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-11-03 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2026-02-13 · 10-K 2025-02-14

Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Earnings calls

What the Earnings Calls Reveal

Between 2023-Q4 and 2026-Q1 the calls show Caterpillar transforming from a construction equipment maker into an energy and AI beneficiary: record revenues, a backlog growing from 27.5 to 63 billion dollars, and repeatedly raised capacity targets for large engines. Operationally, management mostly delivered above plan on margins and cash flow, and tariff costs were quantified openly. What stands out negatively is a quietly buried services revenue target, the 2024 sales guidance that was walked back in stages, and repeated evasion on margin questions about the most important growth segment.

Red flags Service target dropped 10 calls reviewed, 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026

2026 services target quietly dropped

From 2023-Q4 through 2024-Q2, management reiterated in every call its target of 28 billion dollars in services revenue by 2026; in 2024-Q3 the number already went unmentioned. In the 2024-Q4 call this became a merely 'aspirational target' without explanation, and from 2025-Q1 onward the number vanished from prepared remarks entirely. In 2025-Q2 services revenue for 2025 was guided merely 'about flat' at roughly 24 billion dollars, and in the 2025-Q4 call a new goal of 30 billion dollars by 2030 replaced the old one. At no point across the ten calls did management admit that the 2026 target would be missed by a wide margin.

2024 sales guidance cut in stages

In 2023-Q4 management guided 2024 sales to be 'broadly similar' to record 2023 and confirmed this in 2024-Q1. In 2024-Q2 the outlook was cut to a slight decline and lowered again in 2024-Q3; the year ended down 3 percent at 64.8 billion dollars. The company also missed its own dealer inventory assumptions twice: for 2024 no significant change was projected, yet machine inventories fell by about 700 million; for 2025 the assumption was about flat, yet they fell by 500 million dollars. Notably, profitability moved the other way: the margin outlook was raised above the top of the target range in 2024-Q2 and delivered at 20.7 percent; in 2025 the pattern flipped when the guided slight sales decline turned into 4 percent growth and record revenue.

Margin questions deflected with OPACC formula

In 2024-Q1, 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3 analysts, above all Jamie Cook, repeatedly asked about the structural margin potential of the Energy and Transportation segment given the multi-billion capacity investments. A concrete number was never given; instead management repeatedly (2024-Q1, 2024-Q3) pointed to growing 'absolute OPACC dollars' as the guiding metric, while in 2024-Q2 the answer stayed at an unquantified 'there is potential'. In 2024-Q3 the CEO literally said he was 'not going to quantify that at this point', and the capital budget for the large engine expansion also went unquantified there. In 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2 and 2026-Q1 as well, questions about the segment's margin band and pull-through received no concrete number. The same question went unquantified for more than two years and was deferred to investor days instead.

Tariff costs: rising estimates, new yardstick

Tariff estimates for 2025 climbed over the year from 250-350 million dollars per quarter (2025-Q1) to 1.3-1.5 billion (2025-Q2) and then 1.6-1.75 billion dollars (2025-Q3); the actual net figure was 1.7 billion. In the 2025-Q4 call the CFO changed the metric: instead of a net impact including cost controls, only absolute tariff costs are reported going forward, plausibly explained but a break in comparability. In 2026-Q1 a favorable retroactive correction of the 2025 tariff computation of roughly 200 million dollars followed, supporting quarterly EPS by 0.31 dollars. In parallel, 2026-Q1 trimmed the dealer inventory disclosure (the total machines figure was dropped) and rebuilt the Energy and Transportation segment into 'Power and Energy' with rail moved to Resource Industries; all explained, but in sum less comparability exactly where the pressure is greatest.

Tone shift: sustainability out, AI records in

Through 2024-Q4 every call had a fixed section on the 'sustainability journey'; with the CEO transition to Joe Creed from 2025-Q1 the topic disappeared from prepared remarks. Its place was taken by data centers, generative AI, the 'invisible layer of the tech stack' and record announcements on backlog and revenue. Also notable in 2025-Q1: the CFO casually stated that the lower end of the official 10 percent margin target range was 'probably no longer really valid'. An informal softening of the target framework, which formally remained unchanged.

Management promises

  • 2023-Q4 — Services revenue of 28 billion dollars by 2026 (reaffirmed on the call as the 2026 target). Services stagnated at roughly 24 billion dollars in 2024 and 2025. The target was downgraded to 'aspirational' in 2024-Q4 and replaced in 2025-Q4 by the new goal of 30 billion by 2030 without any admission. broken
  • 2023-Q4 — 2024 sales 'broadly similar' to the record 2023 level of 67.1 billion dollars. Cut stepwise in 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3; the year ended down 3 percent at 64.8 billion dollars. The margin commitment (top half of the target range) was exceeded, however. broken
  • 2024-Q1 — Multiyear doubling of large engine and parts output capacity versus 2023 (roughly four years). On track and per 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 even ahead of plan; raised to plus 125 percent in 2024-Q3 and expanded in 2026-Q1 to nearly triple the 2024 level. Completion only in 2027 to 2029. open
  • 2023-Q4 — Dividend to rise by at least high single digits annually through 2025; substantially all ME&T free cash flow to be returned to shareholders. Delivered: up 8 percent in 2024-Q2, up 7 percent in 2025-Q2 (fifth consecutive year); payouts of 10.3 billion (2024) and 7.9 billion dollars (2025) evidence the cash commitment. kept
  • 2024-Q4 — 2025 revenue slightly below the 2024 level. Clearly exceeded: up 4 percent to the record of 67.6 billion dollars despite a 1.7 billion net tariff burden. Not a breach, but evidence of how conservatively recent full-year guidance was set. kept

Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1.

Growth

Growth Score

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

5 of 10 Solid growth
  • Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 4.4%
  • More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 10.5%
  • Share count grows by less than 3% a year -4.0%
  • Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 15.3%
  • Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 32.3%
  • Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 5.4%
  • Net debt below twice EBITDA 2.3 x EBITDA
  • Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 6,659 m
  • Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 18.1%
  • Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.2%

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail

Quality check

AAQS

10/10 Quality stock

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% 6.4%
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 14.1%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 28.6%
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 30.8%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT 3.0x
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50% 45.1%
  • Return on equity > 15% 56.3%
  • ROCE > 15% 18.1%
  • Expected return > 10% 33.4%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 4,831 813.72 3,931,081
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 1,280 812.09 1,039,475
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 5,035 811.31 4,084,946
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 3,041 810.31 2,464,153
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 2,137 809.08 1,729,004
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 2,639 808.20 2,132,840
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 6,135 807.41 4,953,460
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 3,382 806.31 2,726,940
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 1,351 805.36 1,088,041
Aug 28, 2026 Creed Joseph E Chief Executive Officer Sell 520 803.86 418,007

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

Caterpillar Inc. liefert Bau- und Bergbaumaschinen, Diesel- und Erdgasmotoren für den Geländeeinsatz, Industriegasturbinen und dieselelektrische Lokomotiven in den USA und international.

Employees
118,000
Headquarters
Irving, TX
Address
5205 N. O'Connor Boulevard, 75039 Irving, United States
Phone
972 891 7700
IPO Date
01/02/1962
ISIN
US1491231015
Stock Split
2:1 on 07/14/2005
Stock Split
2:1 on 07/14/1997
Stock Split
2:1 on 09/06/1994

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
Joseph E. Creed CPA Chairman & CEO 1976
Christine M. Pambianchi Chief Human Resources Officer 1968
Denise C. Johnson Group President of Resource Industries 1966
Bob De Lange Group President of Services, Distribution & Digital 1970
Andrew R. J. Bonfield Advisor 1962
Kyle J. Epley Chief Financial Officer 1973
William E. Schaupp VP & Chief Accounting Officer 1972
Jaime Mineart Senior VP & CTO –
Jamie L. Engstrom Senior VP & Chief Information Officer 1978
Alex Kapper Vice President of Investor Relations –

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 09/01/2026 CATERPILLAR INC (CAT): Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
  • 08/04/2026 CATERPILLAR INC (CAT): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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