Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Whoever buys today bets that the $62.7 billion order book converts into years of rising profits before tariffs, price pressure or the cycle catch up with a valuation near 50 times earnings — the dividend itself, at a 32 percent payout ratio, is not the bottleneck. Whoever waits checks three lines in every quarterly report (10-Q): the firm backlog (does it keep growing beyond $62.7 billion?), actual tariff costs against the $2.6 billion forecast, and price realization (does it stay positive as in Q1 2026?). An Aristocrat rarely loses its title overnight — an overvaluation can correct much faster. The decision is yours.
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Caterpillar is the textbook Dividend Aristocrat: 32 consecutive years of higher annual dividends, a quarterly payout since 1933 — and rank 1 in the U.S. selection of our in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner (as of July 18, 2026). We read the annual reports (10-K), the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026, and the June 2026 dividend announcement: an order backlog that more than doubled from $30.0 billion to $62.7 billion in 15 months because AI data centers need power — but also a profit that fell 15 percent in 2025, an expected $2.6 billion tariff bill for 2026, and a valuation that prices the machinery maker like a growth stock. Not investment advice — just a reminder that a royal title says nothing about the price of admission.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 18, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CAT since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 814.80 $ — 62% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralCaterpillar verkauft keine KI — der Umsatz stammt aus Bau- und Bergbaumaschinen, Motoren, Turbinen und der Absatzfinanzierung (Cat Financial). In den sechs geprüften Filings (10-K 2025 und 2024, vier 10-Q bis zum 31.03.2026) erscheint Künstliche Intelligenz je Bericht höchstens ein einziges Mal — stets nur als externer Nachfrage-Treiber für die Stromerzeugungs-Sparte (Rechenzentrums-Ausbau für Cloud-Computing und generative KI füllt das Power-&-Energy-Auftragsbuch); das 10-Q zum 31.03.2025 nennt KI gar nicht. Es gibt weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle (Motoren und Turbinen sind keine KI-Produkte) noch dokumentierten operativen KI-Einsatz noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko in den Risk Factors — nach dem Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund, daher Neutral.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In Power & Energy, we anticipate growth in Power Generation for both reciprocating engines and turbines and turbine-related services in 2026, driven by increasing energy demand to support data center build-out related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)."
In Power & Energy erwarten wir für 2026 Wachstum in der Stromerzeugung sowohl bei Hubkolbenmotoren als auch bei Turbinen und turbinenbezogenen Dienstleistungen, getrieben von der steigenden Energienachfrage zur Unterstützung des Rechenzentrums-Ausbaus im Zusammenhang mit Cloud-Computing und generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).
„Demand remains robust, driven by data center growth related to cloud computing and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)."
Die Nachfrage bleibt robust, getrieben vom Rechenzentrums-Wachstum im Zusammenhang mit Cloud-Computing und generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI“).
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 10-Q 2025-11-03 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2026-02-13 · 10-K 2025-02-14
Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Red flags Service target droppedBetween 2023-Q4 and 2026-Q1 the calls show Caterpillar transforming from a construction equipment maker into an energy and AI beneficiary: record revenues, a backlog growing from 27.5 to 63 billion dollars, and repeatedly raised capacity targets for large engines. Operationally, management mostly delivered above plan on margins and cash flow, and tariff costs were quantified openly. What stands out negatively is a quietly buried services revenue target, the 2024 sales guidance that was walked back in stages, and repeated evasion on margin questions about the most important growth segment.
10 calls reviewed, 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
2026 services target quietly dropped
From 2023-Q4 through 2024-Q2, management reiterated in every call its target of 28 billion dollars in services revenue by 2026; in 2024-Q3 the number already went unmentioned. In the 2024-Q4 call this became a merely 'aspirational target' without explanation, and from 2025-Q1 onward the number vanished from prepared remarks entirely. In 2025-Q2 services revenue for 2025 was guided merely 'about flat' at roughly 24 billion dollars, and in the 2025-Q4 call a new goal of 30 billion dollars by 2030 replaced the old one. At no point across the ten calls did management admit that the 2026 target would be missed by a wide margin.
2024 sales guidance cut in stages
In 2023-Q4 management guided 2024 sales to be 'broadly similar' to record 2023 and confirmed this in 2024-Q1. In 2024-Q2 the outlook was cut to a slight decline and lowered again in 2024-Q3; the year ended down 3 percent at 64.8 billion dollars. The company also missed its own dealer inventory assumptions twice: for 2024 no significant change was projected, yet machine inventories fell by about 700 million; for 2025 the assumption was about flat, yet they fell by 500 million dollars. Notably, profitability moved the other way: the margin outlook was raised above the top of the target range in 2024-Q2 and delivered at 20.7 percent; in 2025 the pattern flipped when the guided slight sales decline turned into 4 percent growth and record revenue.
Margin questions deflected with OPACC formula
In 2024-Q1, 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3 analysts, above all Jamie Cook, repeatedly asked about the structural margin potential of the Energy and Transportation segment given the multi-billion capacity investments. A concrete number was never given; instead management repeatedly (2024-Q1, 2024-Q3) pointed to growing 'absolute OPACC dollars' as the guiding metric, while in 2024-Q2 the answer stayed at an unquantified 'there is potential'. In 2024-Q3 the CEO literally said he was 'not going to quantify that at this point', and the capital budget for the large engine expansion also went unquantified there. In 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2 and 2026-Q1 as well, questions about the segment's margin band and pull-through received no concrete number. The same question went unquantified for more than two years and was deferred to investor days instead.
Tariff costs: rising estimates, new yardstick
Tariff estimates for 2025 climbed over the year from 250-350 million dollars per quarter (2025-Q1) to 1.3-1.5 billion (2025-Q2) and then 1.6-1.75 billion dollars (2025-Q3); the actual net figure was 1.7 billion. In the 2025-Q4 call the CFO changed the metric: instead of a net impact including cost controls, only absolute tariff costs are reported going forward, plausibly explained but a break in comparability. In 2026-Q1 a favorable retroactive correction of the 2025 tariff computation of roughly 200 million dollars followed, supporting quarterly EPS by 0.31 dollars. In parallel, 2026-Q1 trimmed the dealer inventory disclosure (the total machines figure was dropped) and rebuilt the Energy and Transportation segment into 'Power and Energy' with rail moved to Resource Industries; all explained, but in sum less comparability exactly where the pressure is greatest.
Tone shift: sustainability out, AI records in
Through 2024-Q4 every call had a fixed section on the 'sustainability journey'; with the CEO transition to Joe Creed from 2025-Q1 the topic disappeared from prepared remarks. Its place was taken by data centers, generative AI, the 'invisible layer of the tech stack' and record announcements on backlog and revenue. Also notable in 2025-Q1: the CFO casually stated that the lower end of the official 10 percent margin target range was 'probably no longer really valid'. An informal softening of the target framework, which formally remained unchanged.
Management promises
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2023-Q4 broken
Services revenue of 28 billion dollars by 2026 (reaffirmed on the call as the 2026 target).
Services stagnated at roughly 24 billion dollars in 2024 and 2025. The target was downgraded to 'aspirational' in 2024-Q4 and replaced in 2025-Q4 by the new goal of 30 billion by 2030 without any admission.
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2023-Q4 broken
2024 sales 'broadly similar' to the record 2023 level of 67.1 billion dollars.
Cut stepwise in 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q3; the year ended down 3 percent at 64.8 billion dollars. The margin commitment (top half of the target range) was exceeded, however.
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2024-Q1 open
Multiyear doubling of large engine and parts output capacity versus 2023 (roughly four years).
On track and per 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 even ahead of plan; raised to plus 125 percent in 2024-Q3 and expanded in 2026-Q1 to nearly triple the 2024 level. Completion only in 2027 to 2029.
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2023-Q4 kept
Dividend to rise by at least high single digits annually through 2025; substantially all ME&T free cash flow to be returned to shareholders.
Delivered: up 8 percent in 2024-Q2, up 7 percent in 2025-Q2 (fifth consecutive year); payouts of 10.3 billion (2024) and 7.9 billion dollars (2025) evidence the cash commitment.
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2024-Q4 kept
2025 revenue slightly below the 2024 level.
Clearly exceeded: up 4 percent to the record of 67.6 billion dollars despite a 1.7 billion net tariff burden. Not a breach, but evidence of how conservatively recent full-year guidance was set.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 17.7% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 28
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 24.72 | 23.05 – 26.33 | 76,607 | 29.7% | 25 |
| 12/31/2027 | 30.45 | 25.78 – 35.43 | 84,977 | 23.2% | 27 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 6.25 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 5.73 | 8.60 | 16,215 | -5.00 | 17.20 | 3,393 | 2,356 |
| 2025: Q1 | 4.20 | -27.00 | 14,249 | -9.80 | 14.10 | 1,289 | 371 |
| 2025: Q2 | 4.62 | -15.60 | 16,569 | -0.70 | 13.20 | 3,122 | 2,167 |
| 2025: Q3 | 4.86 | -3.90 | 17,638 | 9.50 | 13.00 | 3,737 | 4,589 |
| 2025: Q4 | 5.12 | -10.70 | 19,133 | 18.00 | 12.50 | 3,591 | 3,147 |
| 2026: Q1 | 5.47 | 30.30 | 17,415 | 22.20 | 14.60 | 1,870 | 1,547 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 38,537 | 1,162 | -67 | -0.11 | 5,639 | 13,213 | 74,704 |
| 2017 | 45,462 | 4,460 | 754 | 1.26 | 5,706 | 13,766 | 76,962 |
| 2018 | 54,722 | 8,293 | 6,147 | 10.26 | 6,558 | 14,080 | 78,509 |
| 2019 | 53,800 | 8,290 | 6,093 | 10.74 | 6,912 | 14,588 | 78,453 |
| 2020 | 41,748 | 4,553 | 2,998 | 5.46 | 6,327 | 15,331 | 78,324 |
| 2021 | 50,971 | 6,878 | 6,489 | 11.83 | 7,198 | 16,516 | 82,793 |
| 2022 | 59,427 | 7,904 | 6,705 | 12.64 | 7,766 | 15,869 | 81,943 |
| 2023 | 67,060 | 12,966 | 10,335 | 20.12 | 12,885 | 19,494 | 87,476 |
| 2024 | 64,809 | 13,072 | 10,792 | 22.05 | 12,035 | 19,491 | 87,764 |
| 2025 | 67,589 | 11,210 | 8,873 | 18.92 | 11,739 | 21,318 | 98,585 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
32 consecutive years of higher annual dividends, a quarterly dividend since 1933, the June 10, 2026 increase of 8 percent to $1.63 per quarter — at a payout ratio of only about 32 percent of 2025 earnings and 29 percent of MP&E free cash flow (8-K dated 06/11/2026; 10-K 2025).
Firm backlog more than doubled from $30.0 billion (12/31/2024) via $51.2 billion (12/31/2025) to $62.7 billion (03/31/2026); the main driver per the 10-K is data center power demand for cloud and generative AI in the Power & Energy segment (2025 segment profit: $6.4 billion, up 12 percent).
In 2025, profit per share fell from $22.05 to $18.81 (minus 15 percent) and the operating margin from 20.2 to 16.5 percent — on tariffs (~$1.8 billion) and price concessions ($817 million); for 2026 the company expects about $2.6 billion of tariff impact, up to 20 percent more without mitigating actions (10-K 2025). Q1 2026 swung back up with revenue up 22 percent and $5.47 per share.
P/E near 50, price-to-sales near 7, price-to-book near 25, dividend yield near 0.6 percent (as of July 18, 2026) — the cyclical is priced like a growth stock; historically the P/E mostly sat at 10 to 20.
The industrial business generated $9.5 billion of free cash flow (2025), Piotroski 8 of 9, Altman-Z near 7 and a stated mid-A rating goal — but captive lender Cat Financial carries $41.6 of the $95.6 billion in total assets at a covenant leverage of 8.03:1 and interest coverage of 1.53:1 (10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Buybacks of $5.2 billion (2025) plus $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, at monthly average prices of $627 to $700, halved the cash pile to $4.1 billion; the share count fell a good 2 percent within a year — a booster per share, and an expensive entry price if the cycle turns.
Caterpillar is the rare case where the label is accurate and can still mislead: the 32-year dividend streak is SEC-documented, conservatively funded at a payout ratio around 32 percent, and complemented by a $62.7 billion order book filled by the power hunger of AI data centers. Against that stand a 15 percent profit decline in 2025, an expected $2.6 billion tariff bill for 2026, a built-in captive lender levered 8 to 1 — and a valuation near 50 times earnings at a 0.6 percent dividend yield. Whoever invests here is not buying the dividend but the continuation of the Power & Energy boom at full price. Not investment advice.
- CAT made the research list as rank 1 of our in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner (U.S. selection, as of July 18, 2026) — the opener of our series on the top 20 of that selection.
- Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, P/B, Piotroski, Altman-Z, return on equity) use trailing twelve-month figures as of July 18, 2026; the high return on equity around 51 percent is partly a product of buybacks shrinking the equity base ($18.7 billion as of 03/31/2026).
- Price and market value figures (~$1,050, ~$500 billion) from the July 18, 2026 feed, sanity-checked against 460.6 million shares outstanding per the 10-Q as of March 31, 2026; analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Caterpillar Inc. liefert Bau- und Bergbaumaschinen, Diesel- und Erdgasmotoren für den Geländeeinsatz, Industriegasturbinen und dieselelektrische Lokomotiven in den USA und international.
| Employees | 118,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Irving, TX |
| Address | 5205 N. O'Connor Boulevard, 75039 Irving, United States |
| Phone | 972 891 7700 |
| Website | caterpillar.com |
| IPO Date | 2. Jan 1962 |
| ISIN | US1491231015 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 07/14/2005 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph E. Creed CPA | Chairman & CEO | 1976 |
| Christine M. Pambianchi | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1968 |
| Denise C. Johnson | Group President of Resource Industries | 1966 |
| Bob De Lange | Group President of Services, Distribution & Digital | 1970 |
| Andrew R. J. Bonfield | Advisor | 1962 |
| Kyle J. Epley | Chief Financial Officer | 1973 |
| William E. Schaupp | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 1972 |
| Jaime Mineart | Senior VP & CTO | – |
| Jamie L. Engstrom | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | 1978 |
| Alex Kapper | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.