Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Why this colour
A going-concern warning in the 10-K and 10-Q, practically no revenue until the planned restart in the fourth quarter of 2026, mandatory redemption from September 2026, the convertible-note maturity in February 2027 and ongoing dilution: the stock is a highly volatile option certificate on a date. Whether the new ships reach paid service on time and without disruptions is what the next quarters will show. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Virgin Galactic is no empty shell: the product flew and was paid for, 675 customers are waiting with a $188 million order backlog, the factory stands, the restart is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026. But the waiting period costs roughly $93 million per quarter against $250.5 million of cash and securities, the annual report itself doubts the company's survival for the first time, the debt restructuring brought 9.8 percent interest and a lien on almost everything, and the waiting period has been paid for with ever more new shares for years. Not investment advice.
Product & demand
A unique, flight-proven product (seven commercial flights in 2023/24) with documented paying demand: about 675 reservations, roughly $188 million in expected spaceflight revenue, new tickets at a $750,000 base price (annual report 10-K for 2025). The Arizona factory is finished, the timetable most recently confirmed.
Cost discipline & progress
Research and development costs cut 47 percent in 2025, operating cash outflow reduced from $352.7 to $240.1 million (Q1 2026: $53.5 million); the investment peak, per the report, lies behind the company. But: all of it is consumption reduction — income only arrives after the restart in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Revenue & earnings
Practically no revenue since the flight pause in June 2024 (2025: $1.5 million; Q1 2026: $0.2 million) against net losses of $278.9 million (2025) and $64.7 million (Q1 2026). The loss is falling for the second year in a row — but a company that loses one hundred times its revenue lives off its cash, not its business.
Liquidity & going concern
A going-concern warning in the 10-K and 10-Q for the first time: $250.5 million of cash and securities (March 31, 2026) against roughly $93 million of outflow per quarter plus $30.4 million of mandatory redemption by September 30, 2026; the counter-plans are explicitly deemed "not probable" under ASC 205-40. The December 2025 restructuring (2.5 to 9.8 percent, first-priority security, "troubled debt restructuring") shows the price at which fresh money was last available.
Capital structure & dependencies
Share count plus 147 percent in fifteen months (33.0 to 81.4 million), an at-the-market program of up to $300 million, warrants on 31.7 million shares; $70.4 million of convertible notes due in cash in February 2027. The brand only rented from Branson's Virgin Enterprises (2025: a $2.5 million fee — more than revenue; termination right after a long flight pause), veto rights of the Branson vehicle VIL.
Worth Noting
A going-concern warning is a standardized warning under ASC 205-40 (a calculation without future revenue and capital measures) — it is not an insolvency verdict, and this analysis expressly renders none.
The order backlog of roughly $188 million across 675 reservations averages out to roughly $279,000 per person — many reservations stem from earlier, considerably cheaper pricing rounds; new tickets cost a $750,000 base price (2021: $450,000; 2023: $600,000).
Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-July 2026 (about $2.50, market value ~$275 million); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SPCE since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 2.20 $ to 7.50 $ · Last price: 3.10 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Aerospace & Defense
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc SPCE | 0.3 | – | -0.1 | -9,106.1 | – | -78.1 | -4.3 |
| Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX | 1,172.1 | – | 511.6 | 51.9 | – | – | – |
| GE Aerospace GE | 326.7 | 40.1 | 27.6 | 31.1 | 20.2 | 18.5 | 8.8 |
| RTX Corporation RTX | 254.2 | 36.5 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 24.1 |
| The Boeing Company BA | 155.3 | 78.7 | 25.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 34.5 | -8.2 |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | 124.1 | 26.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 16.7 |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | 96.7 | 22.8 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | 90.3 | 52.0 | 34.8 | 36.0 | 28.2 | 11.1 | 22.0 |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | 73.6 | 16.6 | 11.8 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 2.2 | -7.7 |
| Median of companies shown | 124.1 | 36.5 | 18.5 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | -140 | 1 | 0.01 | -1 | 669 | 694 |
| 2018 | 3 | -1 | 11 | 1.13 | -1 | 680 | 705 |
| 2019 | 4 | -213 | -211 | -21.70 | -204 | 468 | 606 |
| 2020 | 0 | -275 | -645 | -58.86 | -233 | 527 | 804 |
| 2021 | 3 | -320 | -353 | -28.50 | -231 | 894 | 1,069 |
| 2022 | 2 | -500 | -500 | -37.90 | -380 | 480 | 1,140 |
| 2023 | 7 | -532 | -502 | -29.79 | -448 | 505 | 1,180 |
| 2024 | 7 | -377 | -347 | -13.89 | -353 | 322 | 961 |
| 2025 | 2 | -283 | -279 | -5.44 | -240 | 274 | 803 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.69 | – | 0 | -84.70 | -17,811.90 | -81 | -117 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.76 | – | 1 | -76.80 | -18,326.90 | -76 | -122 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.61 | – | 0 | -90.40 | -16,571.40 | -55 | -114 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -9.20 | -17,648.50 | -56 | -108 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.56 | – | 0 | -27.30 | -20,103.50 | -53 | -95 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -50.80 | -28,508.80 | -54 | -93 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.50 | 18.00 | 0 | -75.00 | -55,900.00 | -50 | -91 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -2.32 | -2.79 – -1.91 | 1 | 56.6% | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.62 | -0.93 – -0.42 | 273 | 73.3% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 13.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 (eingereicht 30.03.2026), den 10-K für 2024 (26.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt 14.05.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Virgin Galactic findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Die einzigen Erwähnungen von „artificial intelligence“ sind generische Risiko-Floskeln im Risikokapitel (Item 1A) des 10-K — zum einen Cyberangriffe, die „unter anderem durch Künstliche Intelligenz“ raffinierter würden, zum anderen der Hinweis, der Rechtsrahmen für KI-Technologien entwickle sich schnell und könne eine etwaige eigene KI-Nutzung einschränken. Weder wird KI als Umsatzquelle beschrieben (das Geschäft ist suborbitaler Raumflug für Privatpersonen und Forschung), noch belegen die Berichte einen konkreten operativen KI-Einsatz, noch wird KI als konkretes Risiko für das eigene Geschäftsmodell benannt. Die vier ausgewerteten 10-Q enthalten überhaupt keine KI-Treffer. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund: „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-14 · 10-Q 2025-11-13 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-15 · 10-K 2026-03-30 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on July 13, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -12.6%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 1,995.9%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 57.2%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -28,458.0%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -5,680.7%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 87 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -47.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.6%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% -1.6%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 1,231.9%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 1,231.9%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -101.8%
- ROCE > 15% -47.7%
- Expected return > 10% -479.6%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
The company
About the Company
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., ein Luft- und Raumfahrt- sowie Weltraumreiseunternehmen, konzentriert sich auf Entwicklung, Herstellung und Betrieb von Raumschiffen und zugehörigen Technologien.
- Employees
- 694
- Headquarters
- Tustin, CA
- Address
- 1700 Flight Way, 92782 Tustin, United States
- Phone
- 949 774 7640
- Website
- virgingalactic.com
- IPO Date
- 10/28/2019
- ISIN
- US92766K4031
- Stock Split
- 1:20 on 06/17/2024
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Michael A. Colglazier | CEO, President & Director | 1967 |
| Douglas T. Ahrens CPA | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1967 |
| Sarah E. Kim | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1978 |
| Aparna Chitale | Chief People Officer, Head of Customer Operations & Executive VP of Astronaut Operations | 1977 |
| Sir Richard Charles Nicholas Branson | Founder | 1950 |
| Eric Cerny | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Aleanna Crane | Vice President of Communications | – |
| Michael Patrick Moses | President of Spaceline Missions & Safety | 1968 |
| Natalie Beth Moses | Chief Astronaut Instructor | – |
| CJ Sturckow | Chief Pilot | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.