Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
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We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
A going-concern warning in the 10-K and 10-Q, practically no revenue until the planned restart in the fourth quarter of 2026, mandatory redemption from September 2026, the convertible-note maturity in February 2027 and ongoing dilution: the stock is a highly volatile option certificate on a date. Whether the new ships reach paid service on time and without disruptions is what the next quarters will show. The decision is yours.
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Virgin Galactic has a spaceship factory in Arizona, a spaceport in New Mexico, a global brand and about 675 paid reservations — but nobody has flown since June 2024, and the stock shows up in our warning scanner "Thomas Inso Kandidat". We read the annual report (10-K) for 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: $1.5 million in revenue against a $278.9 million loss, a cash pile that has more than halved in five quarters, a debt restructuring from 2.5 to 9.8 percent interest — and, for the first time, official doubt about the company's survival. Everything hangs on one date in the fourth quarter of 2026. Not investment advice — just a countdown in which we count along every number straight from the original filings.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at SPCE since then.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 2.60 $ — 8% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 13.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für 2025 (eingereicht 30.03.2026), den 10-K für 2024 (26.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt 14.05.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Virgin Galactic findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Die einzigen Erwähnungen von „artificial intelligence“ sind generische Risiko-Floskeln im Risikokapitel (Item 1A) des 10-K — zum einen Cyberangriffe, die „unter anderem durch Künstliche Intelligenz“ raffinierter würden, zum anderen der Hinweis, der Rechtsrahmen für KI-Technologien entwickle sich schnell und könne eine etwaige eigene KI-Nutzung einschränken. Weder wird KI als Umsatzquelle beschrieben (das Geschäft ist suborbitaler Raumflug für Privatpersonen und Forschung), noch belegen die Berichte einen konkreten operativen KI-Einsatz, noch wird KI als konkretes Risiko für das eigene Geschäftsmodell benannt. Die vier ausgewerteten 10-Q enthalten überhaupt keine KI-Treffer. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog dokumentierter Negativ-Befund: „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-14 · 10-Q 2025-11-13 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-15 · 10-K 2026-03-30 · 10-K 2025-02-26
Rated on July 13, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 36.5% above the current price.
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.60 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.69 | – | 0 | -84.70 | -17,811.90 | -81 | -117 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.76 | – | 1 | -76.80 | -18,326.90 | -76 | -122 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.61 | – | 0 | -90.40 | -16,571.40 | -55 | -114 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -9.20 | -17,648.50 | -56 | -108 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.56 | – | 0 | -27.30 | -20,103.50 | -53 | -95 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.58 | – | 0 | -50.80 | -28,508.80 | -54 | -93 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
A unique, flight-proven product (seven commercial flights in 2023/24) with documented paying demand: about 675 reservations, roughly $188 million in expected spaceflight revenue, new tickets at a $750,000 base price (annual report 10-K for 2025). The Arizona factory is finished, the timetable most recently confirmed.
Research and development costs cut 47 percent in 2025, operating cash outflow reduced from $352.7 to $240.1 million (Q1 2026: $53.5 million); the investment peak, per the report, lies behind the company. But: all of it is consumption reduction — income only arrives after the restart in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Practically no revenue since the flight pause in June 2024 (2025: $1.5 million; Q1 2026: $0.2 million) against net losses of $278.9 million (2025) and $64.7 million (Q1 2026). The loss is falling for the second year in a row — but a company that loses one hundred times its revenue lives off its cash, not its business.
A going-concern warning in the 10-K and 10-Q for the first time: $250.5 million of cash and securities (March 31, 2026) against roughly $93 million of outflow per quarter plus $30.4 million of mandatory redemption by September 30, 2026; the counter-plans are explicitly deemed "not probable" under ASC 205-40. The December 2025 restructuring (2.5 to 9.8 percent, first-priority security, "troubled debt restructuring") shows the price at which fresh money was last available.
Share count plus 147 percent in fifteen months (33.0 to 81.4 million), an at-the-market program of up to $300 million, warrants on 31.7 million shares; $70.4 million of convertible notes due in cash in February 2027. The brand only rented from Branson's Virgin Enterprises (2025: a $2.5 million fee — more than revenue; termination right after a long flight pause), veto rights of the Branson vehicle VIL.
Virgin Galactic is no empty shell: the product flew and was paid for, 675 customers are waiting with a $188 million order backlog, the factory stands, the restart is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026. But the waiting period costs roughly $93 million per quarter against $250.5 million of cash and securities, the annual report itself doubts the company's survival for the first time, the debt restructuring brought 9.8 percent interest and a lien on almost everything, and the waiting period has been paid for with ever more new shares for years. Not investment advice.
- A going-concern warning is a standardized warning under ASC 205-40 (a calculation without future revenue and capital measures) — it is not an insolvency verdict, and this analysis expressly renders none.
- The order backlog of roughly $188 million across 675 reservations averages out to roughly $279,000 per person — many reservations stem from earlier, considerably cheaper pricing rounds; new tickets cost a $750,000 base price (2021: $450,000; 2023: $600,000).
- Price and valuation figures are dated to mid-July 2026 (about $2.50, market value ~$275 million); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., ein Luft- und Raumfahrt- sowie Weltraumreiseunternehmen, konzentriert sich auf Entwicklung, Herstellung und Betrieb von Raumschiffen und zugehörigen Technologien.
| Employees | 694 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Tustin, CA |
| Website | virgingalactic.com |
| IPO Date | 28. Oct 2019 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Michael A. Colglazier | CEO, President & Director | 1967 |
| Douglas T. Ahrens CPA | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1967 |
| Sarah E. Kim | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 1978 |
| Aparna Chitale | Chief People Officer, Head of Customer Operations & Executive VP of Astronaut Operations | 1977 |
| Sir Richard Charles Nicholas Branson | Founder | 1950 |
| Eric Cerny | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Aleanna Crane | Vice President of Communications | – |
| Michael Patrick Moses | President of Spaceline Missions & Safety | 1968 |
| Natalie Beth Moses | Chief Astronaut Instructor | – |
| CJ Sturckow | Chief Pilot | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.