Treace Medical Concepts Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The cost turnaround and the insider purchases are documented, but revenue has been shrinking for two quarters and the 2026 guidance promises at best stagnation. Only when the new minimally invasive systems visibly overcompensate the Lapiplasty decline — the reports for the second half of 2026 have to show it — is the turnaround more than an advance. After roughly +250 percent in three months (data as of July 9, 2026), much of it is already paid for. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Treace Medical is a specialist with a dream margin and a real cost turnaround whose flagship product is at the same time losing its market to minimally invasive procedures and discount-heavy giants. The founder is buying against it with his own money, the balance sheet holds — but two down quarters in a row and a patent war with an open outcome make the turnaround a question of proof. Not investment advice.
Product economics
A 79.8 percent gross margin in 2025, patented surgical systems, an addressed market of more than $5 billion per the annual report (10-K) with only roughly 450,000 procedures per year so far — the substance of the business model is extraordinary.
Cost turnaround & cash flow
Operating cash outflow more than halved from $37.2 to $16.0 million (2024 → 2025), +$7.2 million of inflow in the first quarter of 2026, liquidity up $3.5 million in the quarter — and practically without dilution (64.6 → 64.9 million shares, February to May 2026).
Insiders & owners
The founder-CEO with an 18.7 percent stake bought roughly 371,600 shares for about $1.1 million on the open market in May/June 2026 per insider filings (Form 4); more than 80 percent of the shares sit with professionals and insiders (data as of July 9, 2026).
Core business
The Lapiplasty flagship carries the majority of revenue and is losing out to minimally invasive procedures; revenue −9.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, −10.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026; company guidance for 2026 ($202–212 million) sits just below the 2025 figure even at the upper end.
Competition & litigation
Stryker, Zimmer Biomet/Paragon 28, Arthrex and DePuy Synthes counter with bundle discounts and group contracts; add a multi-front patent war including countersuits, administrative review of four of the five asserted patents and a shareholder class action — legal costs +$5.4 million in 2025, partly deferred with the company's own law firm at 10 percent interest.
Balance sheet & technicals
A $60 million loan (maturing 2030, SOFR + 5.05 percentage points, lien on essentially all assets including the patents) stands against $51.9 million of liquid funds; the liquidity covenant was met as of March 31, 2026, no going-concern warning. Technically overheated after roughly +250 percent in three months: Weinstein Stage 3 and bankruptcy-risk-scanner hits next to the momentum shelf (data as of July 9, 2026).
Worth Noting
No going-concern warning in the annual report (10-K) for 2025; the company expects sufficient funds for at least twelve months. The hit in the bankruptcy-risk screen "Thomas Inso Kandidat" feeds on the weak balance-sheet history and falling revenue — it is a smoke detector, not an insolvency verdict.
Fiscal year = calendar year; "2025" means January through December 2025. Q4 2025 revenue derived as full year minus nine-month value. The quarterly report (10-Q) as of June 30, 2026 has historically appeared in early August.
A very volatile stock: daily swings around 9.6 percent, roughly 88 percent below the all-time high despite roughly +250 percent in three months (data as of July 9, 2026). Shareholder class action (McCluney v. Treace, class period May 2023 through May 2024) in an early procedural stage.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at TMCI since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 1.20 $ to 7.20 $ · Last price: 4.50 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Medical Devices
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treace Medical Concepts Inc TMCI | 0.3 | – | -40.9 | 79.5 | – | 1.6 | -35.7 |
| Abbott Laboratories ABT | 173.9 | 29.8 | 17.4 | 56.9 | 13.5 | 5.7 | -22.0 |
| Medtronic PLC MDT | 117.8 | 25.8 | 13.2 | 65.3 | 22.1 | 8.4 | 1.3 |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | 105.8 | 35.0 | 16.8 | 65.6 | 17.8 | 11.2 | -24.9 |
| Boston Scientific Corp BSX | 63.0 | 18.8 | 13.2 | 69.2 | 20.6 | 19.9 | -55.8 |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW | 50.8 | 48.2 | 27.7 | 77.8 | 31.2 | 11.6 | 18.9 |
| DexCom Inc DXCM | 33.9 | 37.1 | 20.1 | 62.5 | 21.4 | 15.6 | 14.1 |
| GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. GEHC | 27.9 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 39.5 | 11.1 | 4.8 | -17.9 |
| STERIS plc STE | 20.3 | 27.3 | 13.7 | 44.4 | 20.0 | 8.7 | -15.5 |
| Median of companies shown | 50.8 | 28.5 | 13.7 | 65.3 | 20.3 | 8.7 | -17.9 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 39 | -4 | -4 | -0.08 | -8 | 3 | 30 |
| 2020 | 57 | 1 | -4 | -0.07 | -4 | 1 | 42 |
| 2021 | 94 | -17 | -21 | -0.38 | -17 | 93 | 141 |
| 2022 | 142 | -35 | -43 | -0.77 | -31 | 61 | 159 |
| 2023 | 187 | -51 | -50 | -0.81 | -35 | 138 | 252 |
| 2024 | 209 | -56 | -56 | -0.90 | -37 | 113 | 217 |
| 2025 | 213 | -54 | -59 | -0.93 | -16 | 87 | 191 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.01 | – | 69 | 10.40 | -0.70 | -4 | -7 |
| 2025: Q1 | -0.25 | – | 53 | 2.90 | -30.30 | 4 | 1 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.28 | – | 47 | 6.60 | -36.70 | -3 | -8 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.26 | – | 50 | 11.40 | -32.40 | -9 | -12 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.15 | – | 63 | -9.00 | -15.00 | -8 | -10 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.28 | – | 47 | -10.20 | -38.10 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.24 | 14.30 | 45 | -4.20 | -35.00 | -5 | -7 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 12 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- High ADR (≥5%)
- Power Trend
- Qullamaggie: Top Gainers 1M
- Qullamaggie: Top Gainers 3M
- RS Leader (≥90)
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 3
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.85 | -0.88 – -0.83 | 208 | -13.2% | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.85 | -0.85 – -0.85 | 222 | 1.1% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
In den letzten 4 Quartalsberichten (10-Q) und 2 Jahresberichten (10-K) von Treace Medical findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug — die 10-Q enthalten gar keine KI-Erwähnung, und im 10-K 2025 (wie im 10-K 2024) taucht „artificial intelligence“ nur als generische Floskel auf: als Werkzeug von Cyber-Angreifern in Item 1A/1C („threat actors are becoming increasingly sophisticated in using techniques and tools—including generative and other artificial intelligence“) und als regulatorisches Zukunftsthema („the legal, regulatory and ethical landscape around the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning is rapidly evolving, and our obligations to comply … could entail significant costs or limit our ability to incorporate certain artificial intelligence capabilities into our products“); weder KI-Umsatzquelle noch belegter operativer Einsatz noch konkretes Geschäftsmodell-Risiko.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-08 · 10-K 2026-02-27 · 10-K 2025-02-27
Rated on July 9, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 14.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 7.5%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 4.6%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -12.3%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 79.8%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 6.7%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 34 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 77 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -33.9%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 25.4%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
2/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 32.4%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 2.1%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 2.1%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 1
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% -87.5%
- ROCE > 15% -33.9%
- Expected return > 10% -9.5%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | Buy | 11,000 | 4.34 | 47,731 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | Buy | 5,000 | 4.35 | 21,748 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | Buy | 39,944 | 4.44 | 177,176 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Scanlan Sean F. | Chief Innovation Officer | Other | 9,814 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hair Mark | Chief Financial Officer | Other | 37,102 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Elder Scot Michael | Chief Legl & Comp Off, CorpSec | Other | 16,253 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., ein Medizintechnikunternehmen, entwirft, fertigt und vermarktet Medizinprodukte in den USA.
- Employees
- 450
- Headquarters
- Ponte Vedra, FL
- Address
- 100 Palmetto Park Place, 32081 Ponte Vedra, United States
- Phone
- 904 373 5940
- Website
- treace.com
- IPO Date
- 04/23/2021
- ISIN
- US89455T1097
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| John T. Treace | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1972 |
| Mark L. Hair CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 1970 |
| Scot M. Elder J.D. | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary | 1975 |
| Sean F. Scanlan Ph.D. | Chief Innovation & Marketing Officer | 1982 |
| Terry W. Lubben | Chief Operations & Supply Chain Officer | 1965 |
| Zac Potter | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Taylor Erickson | Chief Information & Cybersecurity Officer | – |
| Brad Barr | Senior Vice President of Sales | – |
| Daniel E. Owens | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1972 |
| Shana Zink | Senior Vice President of Clinical Affairs & Reimbursement | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/07/2026 TREACE MEDICAL CONCEPTS, INC. (TMCI): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.