The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
🔔 Watch stock
symbol.quality_heading
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Whoever buys today is betting that the new growth engine (North Italia, Flower Child, the other FRC brands) overtakes the mature flagship before its pricing power hits a ceiling — and pays about 23 to 24 times trailing earnings for it, cushioned by buybacks and a dividend. Whoever waits can check two numbers in every quarterly report (10-Q): whether the core brand’s comparable sales grow again on guests rather than only on price, and whether North Italia’s comparable sales turn positive. Both together would be the evidence that the renovation is becoming a real new build. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
The Cheesecake Factory rang up more revenue than ever in fiscal year 2025 — $3.75 billion, up 4.7 percent — and still earned less than the year before ($148.4 million in net income, down from $156.8 million). We read the annual reports (10-K) for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: the namesake brand now grows only through menu price (core comparable sales up 0.1 percent while 1.9 percent fewer guests walked in), the real pace comes from the small sister brands North Italia and Flower Child, and refinancing a convertible note cost $15.9 million on the bottom line. Not investment advice — just the question of what a familiar sign is worth when the building behind it is under renovation.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 17, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CAKE since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 24 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
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Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 101.40 $ — 100% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIThe Cheesecake Factory setzt laut Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 KI bislang nur in begrenztem Umfang intern im eigenen Geschäftsbetrieb ein und will die Nutzung traditioneller und generativer KI ausweiten, erzielt aber keine KI-Umsätze — die genannten KI-Bezüge betreffen den eigenen Einsatz und dessen Risiken, nicht eine Bedrohung des Restaurantgeschäfts.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Additionally, we have, to a limited extent, incorporated artificial intelligence (“AI”) solutions into our business, and may expand our use of traditional and generative AI solutions in the future."
Darüber hinaus haben wir in begrenztem Umfang Lösungen der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“) in unser Geschäft integriert und könnten unseren Einsatz von traditioneller und generativer KI künftig ausweiten.
„In addition to risks generally applicable to the use of any information technology, AI solutions may be susceptible to a variety of additional risks, which include, without limitation, AI’s use and reliance on large datasets that could be the subject of breaches or misuse, potential liability associated with AI decision making and bias in training data, potential liability for failing to comply with rapidly evolving laws regulating AI, as well as ethical concerns relating to AI and machine learning."
Zusätzlich zu den allgemein für jede Informationstechnologie geltenden Risiken können KI-Lösungen einer Reihe weiterer Risiken ausgesetzt sein, darunter unter anderem die Nutzung und Abhängigkeit von großen Datensätzen, die von Sicherheitsverletzungen oder Missbrauch betroffen sein könnten, mögliche Haftung im Zusammenhang mit KI-gestützten Entscheidungen und Verzerrungen in Trainingsdaten, mögliche Haftung wegen Nichteinhaltung sich rasch entwickelnder KI-Gesetze sowie ethische Bedenken in Bezug auf KI und maschinelles Lernen.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-04 · 10-Q 2025-11-03 · 10-Q 2025-08-04 · 10-Q 2025-05-05 · 10-K 2026-02-23 · 10-K 2025-02-24
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 10.5% below the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 19
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.49 | 4.39 – 4.69 | 4,011 | 19.2% | 16 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.93 | 4.40 – 5.59 | 4,305 | 9.8% | 19 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.84 | 222.10 | 921 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 94 | 54 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.67 | -2.50 | 927 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 79 | 36 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.14 | 6.00 | 956 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 57 | 15 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.66 | 7.10 | 907 | 4.80 | 3.50 | 91 | 54 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.60 | -29.20 | 962 | 4.40 | 3.00 | 75 | 50 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.02 | 53.80 | 979 | 5.60 | 5.10 | 96 | 52 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,276 | 201 | 139 | 2.83 | 303 | 603 | 1,293 |
| 2017 | 2,261 | 153 | 157 | 3.27 | 239 | 614 | 1,333 |
| 2018 | 2,332 | 119 | 99 | 2.14 | 291 | 571 | 1,314 |
| 2019 | 2,483 | 104 | 127 | 2.86 | 219 | 572 | 2,841 |
| 2020 | 1,983 | -347 | -253 | -5.78 | 3 | 507 | 2,747 |
| 2021 | 2,928 | 82 | 72 | 1.49 | 213 | 330 | 2,798 |
| 2022 | 3,303 | 39 | 43 | 0.86 | 162 | 292 | 2,775 |
| 2023 | 3,440 | 109 | 101 | 2.07 | 218 | 318 | 2,840 |
| 2024 | 3,582 | 178 | 157 | 3.20 | 268 | 443 | 3,042 |
| 2025 | 3,752 | 187 | 148 | 3.07 | 301 | 436 | 3,262 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Three years of rising revenue to a record $3,751.8 million (fiscal year 2025, +4.7 percent), 368 company-owned restaurants plus 35 international licensed locations, income from operations $187.3 million — a steady, profitable chain without boom-bust cyclicality (10-K fiscal year 2025).
Record revenue, but net income fell from $156.8 million to $148.4 million (diluted EPS $3.06 versus $3.20) — weighed by a $15.9 million loss on a note extinguishment and higher impairments ($23.0 million versus $13.6 million); net margin only 4.0 percent (10-K fiscal year 2025, statement of operations).
The namesake grows only on price (comparable sales +0.1 percent, menu price +4.3 percent against 1.9 percent fewer guests), while the real pace comes from Flower Child (+27.8 percent) and North Italia (+16.5 percent) — the latter through new locations, where comps fell about 2 percent (10-K fiscal year 2025, MD&A).
$215.7 million of cash against $575.0 million of convertible notes (due 2030) and $1.33 billion of lease liabilities on just $436.4 million of equity (December 30, 2025); the thin layer is partly a result of buybacks, the convertible can dilute later, the 2030 maturity buys calm (10-K fiscal year 2025, balance sheet).
$153.9 million of buybacks and $55.2 million of dividends ($1.08 per share) in fiscal year 2025; the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (13 weeks through March 31, 2026) grew revenue 5.6 percent and net income about 50 percent — without the note-related special item (10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
The Cheesecake Factory is a company under renovation while it stays open: $3.75 billion of record revenue in fiscal year 2025, but a fallen net income that a debt refinancing dragged down. The mature namesake holds its revenue only on menu price, the growth comes from the small brands North Italia and Flower Child — partly through expensive openings. Balance sheet and valuation are unremarkably average, and the latest quarter was the strongest in a while. Whoever buys here buys a solid, founder-led chain with middling growth at an average price. Not investment advice.
- CAKE reached our research list via the in-house growth scanner "Joshua" (rank 17 of 75, as of July 17, 2026); the hit traces to the strong first quarter of fiscal year 2026 — a growth hit signals acceleration, not a quality verdict.
- Cheesecake Factory uses a 52/53-week fiscal year (ending the Tuesday closest to December 31); fiscal year 2025 ended December 30, 2025, and comprised 52 weeks. All quarterly references carry that calendar offset.
- Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (market value roughly $4.1 billion, near the 52-week high); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Trailing earnings per share (about $3.54) already include the strong first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
About the Company
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated betreibt und lizenziert Restaurants in den USA und Kanada. Sie betreibt Bäckereien, die Käsekuchen und andere Backwaren für ihre Restaurants, internationale Lizenznehmer, Drittbäckereikunden, externe Gastronomiebetriebe, Einzelhändler und…
| Employees | 48,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Calabasas, CA |
| Address | 26901 Malibu Hills Road, 91301 Calabasas, United States |
| Phone | 818 871 3000 |
| Website | thecheesecakefactory.com |
| IPO Date | 17. Sep 1992 |
| ISIN | US1630721017 |
| Stock Split | 3:2 on 12/09/2004 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David M. Overton | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1946 |
| David M. Gordon | President | 1965 |
| Matthew Eliot Clark | Executive VP & CFO | 1970 |
| Scarlett A. May J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1966 |
| Ashley W. Hanscom | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 1978 |
| Etienne Marcus | Vice President of Finance & Investor Relations | – |
| Cheryl M. Slomann | Senior Vice President of Finance & Compliance | 1966 |
| Donald Evans | Chief Marketing Officer & Senior VP | – |
| Dina R. Barmasse-Gray | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | – |
| Spero G. Alex | Executive Vice President of Operations - The Cheesecake Factory Restaurants | 1964 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30. Jul 2026 | Hanscom Ashley W | PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Sell | 3,500 | 100.00 | 350,000 |
| 30. Jul 2026 | Clark Matthew Eliot | EXEC VP, CFO | Sell | 68,900 | 99.30 | 6,841,770 |
| 30. Jul 2026 | Clark Matthew Eliot | EXEC VP, CFO | Other | 68,900 | 40.16 | 2,767,024 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.