The Cheesecake Factory
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Whoever buys today is betting that the new growth engine (North Italia, Flower Child, the other FRC brands) overtakes the mature flagship before its pricing power hits a ceiling — and pays about 23 to 24 times trailing earnings for it, cushioned by buybacks and a dividend. Whoever waits can check two numbers in every quarterly report (10-Q): whether the core brand’s comparable sales grow again on guests rather than only on price, and whether North Italia’s comparable sales turn positive. Both together would be the evidence that the renovation is becoming a real new build. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
The Cheesecake Factory is a company under renovation while it stays open: $3.75 billion of record revenue in fiscal year 2025, but a fallen net income that a debt refinancing dragged down. The mature namesake holds its revenue only on menu price, the growth comes from the small brands North Italia and Flower Child — partly through expensive openings. Balance sheet and valuation are unremarkably average, and the latest quarter was the strongest in a while. Whoever buys here buys a solid, founder-led chain with middling growth at an average price. Not investment advice.
Revenue steadiness & scale
Three years of rising revenue to a record $3,751.8 million (fiscal year 2025, +4.7 percent), 368 company-owned restaurants plus 35 international licensed locations, income from operations $187.3 million — a steady, profitable chain without boom-bust cyclicality (10-K fiscal year 2025).
Earnings quality
Record revenue, but net income fell from $156.8 million to $148.4 million (diluted EPS $3.06 versus $3.20) — weighed by a $15.9 million loss on a note extinguishment and higher impairments ($23.0 million versus $13.6 million); net margin only 4.0 percent (10-K fiscal year 2025, statement of operations).
Growth engine & core brand
The namesake grows only on price (comparable sales +0.1 percent, menu price +4.3 percent against 1.9 percent fewer guests), while the real pace comes from Flower Child (+27.8 percent) and North Italia (+16.5 percent) — the latter through new locations, where comps fell about 2 percent (10-K fiscal year 2025, MD&A).
Balance sheet & capital structure
$215.7 million of cash against $575.0 million of convertible notes (due 2030) and $1.33 billion of lease liabilities on just $436.4 million of equity (December 30, 2025); the thin layer is partly a result of buybacks, the convertible can dilute later, the 2030 maturity buys calm (10-K fiscal year 2025, balance sheet).
Capital return & latest quarter
$153.9 million of buybacks and $55.2 million of dividends ($1.08 per share) in fiscal year 2025; the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (13 weeks through March 31, 2026) grew revenue 5.6 percent and net income about 50 percent — without the note-related special item (10-Q as of 03/31/2026).
Worth Noting
CAKE reached our research list via the in-house growth scanner "Joshua" (rank 17 of 75, as of July 17, 2026); the hit traces to the strong first quarter of fiscal year 2026 — a growth hit signals acceleration, not a quality verdict.
Cheesecake Factory uses a 52/53-week fiscal year (ending the Tuesday closest to December 31); fiscal year 2025 ended December 30, 2025, and comprised 52 weeks. All quarterly references carry that calendar offset.
Price and valuation figures are dated to July 17, 2026 (market value roughly $4.1 billion, near the 52-week high); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument. Trailing earnings per share (about $3.54) already include the strong first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at CAKE since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 43.10 $ to 117.30 $ · Last price: 95.90 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Restaurants
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory CAKE | 4.8 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 40.7 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 79.5 |
| McDonald’s Corporation MCD | 176.6 | 21.4 | 15.4 | 57.4 | 44.3 | 3.7 | -16.4 |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | 110.2 | 75.7 | 24.8 | 22.3 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 19.1 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG | 43.0 | 30.7 | 22.5 | 39.4 | 13.3 | 5.4 | -14.3 |
| Yum! Brands Inc YUM | 37.2 | 23.2 | 17.5 | 45.3 | 31.1 | 8.8 | -5.0 |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR | 33.2 | 23.9 | 14.5 | 34.1 | 25.9 | 12.2 | 19.0 |
| Darden Restaurants Inc DRI | 23.9 | 20.8 | 14.4 | 21.7 | 14.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 |
| Yum China Holdings Inc YUMC | 14.2 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 20.3 | 11.5 | 4.4 | -4.9 |
| Texas Roadhouse Inc TXRH | 11.0 | 28.0 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 3.2 |
| Median of companies shown | 33.2 | 23.9 | 17.5 | 34.1 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,276 | 201 | 139 | 2.83 | 303 | 603 | 1,293 |
| 2017 | 2,261 | 153 | 157 | 3.27 | 239 | 614 | 1,333 |
| 2018 | 2,332 | 119 | 99 | 2.14 | 291 | 571 | 1,314 |
| 2019 | 2,483 | 104 | 127 | 2.86 | 219 | 572 | 2,841 |
| 2020 | 1,983 | -347 | -253 | -5.78 | 3 | 507 | 2,747 |
| 2021 | 2,928 | 82 | 72 | 1.49 | 213 | 330 | 2,798 |
| 2022 | 3,303 | 39 | 43 | 0.86 | 162 | 292 | 2,775 |
| 2023 | 3,440 | 109 | 101 | 2.07 | 218 | 318 | 2,840 |
| 2024 | 3,582 | 178 | 157 | 3.20 | 268 | 443 | 3,042 |
| 2025 | 3,752 | 187 | 148 | 3.07 | 301 | 436 | 3,262 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.84 | 222.10 | 921 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 94 | 54 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.67 | -2.50 | 927 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 79 | 36 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.14 | 6.00 | 956 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 57 | 15 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.66 | 7.10 | 907 | 4.80 | 3.50 | 91 | 54 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.60 | -29.20 | 962 | 4.40 | 3.00 | 75 | 50 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.02 | 53.80 | 979 | 5.60 | 5.10 | 96 | 52 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.41 | 23.70 | 1,030 | 7.70 | 6.60 | 92 | 49 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 19 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Growth
Quality & Balance Sheet
Aktien.Guide
Breakout & Setup
Dividends
Momentum & Trend
- 21-EMA Trend
- Above the 50- & 200-SMA
- CANSLIM Type RS
- Mark Minervini: Trend Criteria — 1 Month
- Mike Webster: Power Trend Leader
- Mike Webster: Swing Trading List
- Near 52-Week High
- Power Trend
- Stage 2 Leader
- Stan Weinstein: Checklist
- Stan Weinstein: Stage 2
Research
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 4.50 | 4.05 – 5.12 | 4,016 | 19.3% | 18 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4.97 | 4.40 – 5.90 | 4,314 | 10.5% | 19 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 9.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $206.3M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.76B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $517.9M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 57.4% |
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
The Cheesecake Factory setzt laut Geschäftsbericht (10-K) für das Geschäftsjahr 2025 KI bislang nur in begrenztem Umfang intern im eigenen Geschäftsbetrieb ein und will die Nutzung traditioneller und generativer KI ausweiten, erzielt aber keine KI-Umsätze — die genannten KI-Bezüge betreffen den eigenen Einsatz und dessen Risiken, nicht eine Bedrohung des Restaurantgeschäfts.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Additionally, we have, to a limited extent, incorporated artificial intelligence (“AI”) solutions into our business, and may expand our use of traditional and generative AI solutions in the future."
Darüber hinaus haben wir in begrenztem Umfang Lösungen der künstlichen Intelligenz („KI“) in unser Geschäft integriert und könnten unseren Einsatz von traditioneller und generativer KI künftig ausweiten.
10-K · 2026-02-23 · View SEC filing
„In addition to risks generally applicable to the use of any information technology, AI solutions may be susceptible to a variety of additional risks, which include, without limitation, AI’s use and reliance on large datasets that could be the subject of breaches or misuse, potential liability associated with AI decision making and bias in training data, potential liability for failing to comply with rapidly evolving laws regulating AI, as well as ethical concerns relating to AI and machine learning."
Zusätzlich zu den allgemein für jede Informationstechnologie geltenden Risiken können KI-Lösungen einer Reihe weiterer Risiken ausgesetzt sein, darunter unter anderem die Nutzung und Abhängigkeit von großen Datensätzen, die von Sicherheitsverletzungen oder Missbrauch betroffen sein könnten, mögliche Haftung im Zusammenhang mit KI-gestützten Entscheidungen und Verzerrungen in Trainingsdaten, mögliche Haftung wegen Nichteinhaltung sich rasch entwickelnder KI-Gesetze sowie ethische Bedenken in Bezug auf KI und maschinelles Lernen.
10-K · 2026-02-23 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-04 · 10-Q 2025-11-03 · 10-Q 2025-08-04 · 10-Q 2025-05-05 · 10-K 2026-02-23 · 10-K 2025-02-24
Rated on July 17, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 4.3%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 6.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -1.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 8.9%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 78.3%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 11.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 381 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 7.5%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 7.5%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 5.7%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 7.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% -0.8%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 27.3%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 17.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 80.4%
- ROCE > 15% 7.5%
- Expected return > 10% 31.4%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Kransdorf Jerome I | Director | Other | 200 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kransdorf Jerome I | Director | Other | 800 | 0.00 | – |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Meyer Janice L. | Director | Sell | 1,958 | 109.36 | 214,122 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gordon David M | PRESIDENT | Sell | 15,084 | 110.08 | 1,660,447 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gordon David M | PRESIDENT | Sell | 16,866 | 109.98 | 1,854,923 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gordon David M | PRESIDENT | Other | 5,826 | 34.91 | 203,386 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gordon David M | PRESIDENT | Other | 11,040 | 40.16 | 443,366 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Ames Edie A | Director | Sell | 3,000 | 106.95 | 320,850 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Overton David | CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. | Sell | 94,145 | 106.27 | 10,004,789 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cappello Alexander L | Director | Sell | 64 | 106.08 | 6,789 |
The company
About the Company
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated betreibt und lizenziert Restaurants in den USA und Kanada. Sie betreibt Bäckereien, die Käsekuchen und andere Backwaren für ihre Restaurants, internationale Lizenznehmer, Drittbäckereikunden, externe Gastronomiebetriebe, Einzelhändler und…
- Employees
- 48,000
- Headquarters
- Calabasas, CA
- Address
- 26901 Malibu Hills Road, 91301 Calabasas, United States
- Phone
- 818 871 3000
- Website
- thecheesecakefactory.com
- IPO Date
- 09/17/1992
- ISIN
- US1630721017
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 12/09/2004
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 06/19/2001
- Stock Split
- 3:2 on 06/09/2000
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David M. Overton | Founder, Chairman & CEO | 1946 |
| David M. Gordon | President | 1965 |
| Matthew Eliot Clark | Executive VP & CFO | 1970 |
| Scarlett A. May J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1966 |
| Ashley W. Hanscom | VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller | 1978 |
| Etienne Marcus | Vice President of Finance & Investor Relations | – |
| Cheryl M. Slomann | Senior Vice President of Finance & Compliance | 1966 |
| Donald Evans | Chief Marketing Officer & Senior VP | – |
| Dina R. Barmasse-Gray | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | – |
| Spero G. Alex | Executive Vice President of Operations - The Cheesecake Factory Restaurants | 1964 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 07/28/2026 CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC (CAKE): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosure; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.