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Backtested Scanners

Cannibal Turn

Read the study: Cannibal Turn Backtest: Buyback Beginnings Beat the Market, Habit Does Not — 17.90% Against 15.02% per Year

3 Hits · last calculated August 9, 2026 Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q) · Market filter active: the list shows 0 hits from Germany

Methodology & criteria

Companies that, after years of dilution, start genuinely shrinking their own share count — in the form we back-tested for you. Two conditions have to come together: across the eight quarters before, the share count fell in no single step to speak of and rose by at least 3 percent over the whole stretch (that is the dilution the company is turning away from), and after that it sits at least 1 percent below its year-ago quarter for at least two quarters in a row. It is not the buyback announcement that counts but the measured share count: real money from the cash flow statement must also have gone out across those declining quarters, otherwise the drop is a reverse stock split and not a buyback. Only from $100 million of revenue upwards (sum of the last four quarters): in the 2013–2026 backtest the signal only carried on that revenue base — 21.9 percent per year across 84 of 95 purchases, against practically zero between $10 million and $100 million. The backtest over 163 months measured the holding question too, and the answer is built into this scanner: a position is held for as long as the turn stays intact. That version returned 18.2 percent per year against 15.0 percent for the S&P 500 Total Return, on 94 purchases, a 72.3 percent hit rate and a largest drawdown of 40.3 percent — and it is the only one of the four holding periods tested that stays ahead of the index even without the 2020 to 2022 entry years (17.1 versus 15.0 percent). Companies that have bought back stock habitually for years did not manage that: the control arm came in at 14.0 percent, 1.05 points below the index. IMPORTANT for the alert: when a stock leaves this list because its share count has risen for two quarters in a row, that is the sell trigger under the measured rule — not merely the end of an observation. Source: mandatory filings with the U.S. securities regulator.

Global filters: market cap of $50B or less (mega caps are cut from every scanner); 10- and 30-day ADR must be ≥ 1% (too little movement gets cut); names after a reverse split (distorted price history) and names with a red Stress RS (rating ≤ 30 — weak on stress days) are excluded.

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Terms in This Scanner Explained

(17)
ADR (Average Daily Range)
The average daily swing of a stock in percent - measured over 10 or 30 trading days (columns "ADR 10D/30D"). An ADR of 5% means: on a normal day the gap between the intraday low and high runs about 5%. Traders look for movement - that is why stocks with an ADR under 1% are filtered out globally. Scanners that run without the global filters still include them; that is noted below their hit list. Not to be confused with ADR meaning "American Depositary Receipt" (a US certificate for foreign shares) - here ADR always means the daily swing.
AI Classification
Our company-by-company assessment of the AI boom based on SEC filings (the last four quarterly 10-Q reports and two annual 10-K reports): "Sells AI" (AI is a revenue source), "Threatened" (AI is a concrete business risk), "Uses AI" (operational use), or "Neutral" (no material AI exposure). Every classification requires at least two direct quote citations - otherwise the column shows "-". Not a quality judgment or a buy recommendation; the full file is on the stock page, methodology at /stocks/ai-rating-methodology.
Analysis (Full Company Analysis)
If the Analysis column shows "Read," there is an in-depth TickerGuard company analysis for this stock: business model, scanner findings, quarterly results, evidence from SEC filings, plus opportunities and risks. One click opens it directly.
Avg/Yr 3Y (Average Annual Return)
The stock's average annual return over the past 3 years. Shows at a glance whether a stock delivers over the long run or just had a short hot streak.
Earnings Date
The date of the next quarterly earnings report. Price gaps in either direction are common around this date - that is why we color it red when it is 7 days away or less, and yellow when it is 14 days away or less: elevated risk for fresh positions.
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Quarterly earnings divided by the number of shares outstanding. The most important growth metric: if EPS rises strongly over several quarters, the company is earning more money per share.
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures - the money left over for everything else (debt paydown, acquisitions, or buybacks). Consistently positive free cash flow is one of the most honest signs of a healthy business model.
Funda Rating (Fundamental Rating A+ to F)
Our proprietary fundamental rating from 0 to 100 points with a school-grade rank from A+ to F. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. Every stock is scored against all others by percentile: growth in earnings and revenue, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, and quality criteria such as margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet strength. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below — A/A+ are the fundamentally strongest stocks in the universe.
Long / Short
Long = betting on rising prices (buying the stock). Short = betting on falling prices (selling borrowed shares to buy them back cheaper later). Our short scanners are warning or watch lists - not buy candidates.
Market Capitalization (Mkt Cap)
The market value of the company: share price x total shares outstanding, shown here in billions of dollars. Micro caps (< $0.3B) are small and volatile, mega caps (> $200B) are heavyweights. Our scanner universe is deliberately capped at $50B - we look for stocks with room to run. The cap does not apply to scanners that run without the global filters; that is noted below their hit list.
Net Margin
How much of revenue is left as profit? Net income divided by revenue, in percent. A 20% margin means: out of every dollar of revenue, 20 cents is left as profit. Rising margins are a strong quality signal.
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
The cash that actually flows into the company from day-to-day operations - without accounting effects such as depreciation. A company can report book profits while still burning cash; operating cash flow reveals that.
Piotroski F-Score
A balance-sheet health check developed by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria covering earnings, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency produce a score from 0 to 9. Scores of 7 or higher are considered financially very solid, scores under 3 a warning sign.
Reverse Split
A share consolidation, e.g., 10 old shares become 1 new share - the price appears to jump tenfold without the company becoming worth more. Struggling companies use this to avoid looking like a penny stock; we automatically filter out such distorted stocks.
Sector & Industry
Two levels of industry classification: sector is broad (e.g., Technology), industry is narrow (e.g., Semiconductors). Many strategies watch industry strength, because strong stocks are almost always found in strong industries.
Stage (Weinstein Stages 1-4)
Stan Weinstein divides every price chart into four stages: Stage 1 = basing (sideways after a downtrend), Stage 2 = uptrend (the only buying stage), Stage 3 = topping, Stage 4 = downtrend (avoid, or short candidate). Measured against the 30-week line (150-day moving average) and its slope.
Stress RS (Strength on Stress Days)
A stress day is a day on which both the overall market and the stock's own sector fell at least 0.5%. Stress RS counts on how many of these days the stock still closed green (shown as "g/n" = green days out of n stress days) and turns that into a rating from 1 to 99. High values point to buyers stepping in even on weak days - often a sign of institutional accumulation.

Hit List

Tip: clicking a column header sorts the table by that column; a second click flips the direction.

Cannibal Turn
Symbol Declining Quarters Buyback Earnings Avg/Y 3Y Stress RS Stage Funda Rating Piotroski MktCap Industry AI Rating Deep Dive Deep-Dive Report Sector Price YTD 6 Mo. 1 Year Off High Price Target RS EPS Rating ADR 10D ADR 30D Beta P/E P/E (f) P/S P/B P/FCF PEG EV/EBITDA EBIT Margin Gross Margin Net Margin ROE ROA Debt/Eq Equity Ratio Sales +/Y Growth Score Div. Yield Payout Ratio Altman Z Inst. % Short % Analysts
No stocks currently pass this scanner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Companies that, after years of dilution, start genuinely shrinking their own share count — in the form we back-tested for you.

All scanners are recalculated daily across the entire stock universe — most recently on August 9, 2026. The data basis is fundamental data and SEC filings (10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports).

Currently, 3 stocks pass this scanner's criteria (as of August 9, 2026).

Global filters: market cap of $50B or less (mega caps are cut from every scanner); 10- and 30-day ADR must be ≥ 1% (too little movement gets cut); names after a reverse split (distorted price history) and names with a red Stress RS (rating ≤ 30 — weak on stress days) are excluded.

The scanner looks for the point at which a company stops diluting its shareholders and starts buying its own stock back. Two conditions have to come together: across the eight quarters before, the share count fell in no single step to speak of and rose by at least 3 percent over the whole stretch — that is the dilution the company is turning away from. After that the share count sits at least 1 percent below its year-ago quarter for at least two consecutive quarters. It is not the buyback announcement that counts but the measured share count, and real money from the cash flow statement must also have gone out across those declining quarters — otherwise the drop would be a reverse stock split. Listing starts from $100 million of revenue over the last four quarters, because that is the only size range on which the signal carried in the backtest. One thing is worth knowing: when a stock leaves this list because its share count has risen for two quarters in a row, that is the sell trigger under the measured rule — not merely the end of an observation.

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Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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