Red Cat Holdings Inc
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
The business fundamentally works — the drones get built, accepted and paid for, revenue rose to $40.729 million in fiscal 2025, the balance sheet is robust after the May 2026 offering with about $377 million of liquidity and virtually no financial debt, and there is neither a going-concern flag nor negative equity. What is open is an operating core question, and it is a big one: at a 3.1 percent gross margin in 2025 and 12.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026, revenue comes nowhere near carrying a cost base of $67.871 million, and three quarters of it hang on a single procurement program. Add ineffective internal controls and a loss of confidence among the company's own shareholders. That is not a substance finding, but it is not proven quality either — hence yellow.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Red Cat has the contract small defense companies work toward for years: a U.S. Army Program of Record that lifted fiscal 2025 revenue to $40.729 million. So far, though, that success is paid for by the capital market rather than by the customer: $1.274 million of gross profit stood against $67.871 million of operating expenses, the net loss came to $72.075 million, and three quarters of revenue came from a single buyer. The gross margin firms up to 12.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and the cash box is well filled after the May 2026 offering — but the company's own controls are rated ineffective, four proceedings are running, and shareholders rejected the pay proposal in June 2026. Not investment advice.
Order book and growth
The selection of Teal Drones for the U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance program in November 2024 is a permanently anchored procurement line, not a one-off order. Revenue rose from $4.850 million in the eight-month transition period to December 31, 2024 to $40.729 million in fiscal 2025 and to $15.471 million in the first quarter of 2026 alone (prior-year quarter: $1.630 million). A $9.5 million reorder followed on May 8, 2026.
Earnings power and margin
Of $40.729 million of 2025 revenue, only $1.274 million remained as gross profit — 3.1 percent. Against that stood $67.871 million of operating expenses, including $36.875 million for administration alone. The net loss came to $72.075 million. In the first quarter of 2026 the gross margin rose to 12.7 percent, yet $16.718 million of administrative cost still exceeded $15.471 million of revenue.
Customer concentration
In fiscal 2025, 73 percent of total revenue came from a single customer, and as of December 31, 2025 that customer also held 88 percent of outstanding receivables. About 73 percent of revenue came from U.S. Government contracts. The first quarter of 2026 eased that slightly (Customer A 56 percent, Customer B 19 percent) but leaves a dependence on one procurement program.
Balance sheet and liquidity
As of March 31, 2026 the books showed $131.919 million of cash, $238.739 million of equity and virtually no financial debt ($0.350 million short-term). In May 2026 net proceeds of about $245.4 million from an offering were added. Measured against the first-quarter 2026 operating cash outflow of $31.945 million, that is arithmetically about twelve quarters, just under three years — provided the burn rate does not rise.
Accounting and leadership
Disclosure controls were rated not effective as of December 31, 2025 and again as of March 31, 2026; the material weakness in staffing, supervision and segregation of duties persists. Add a class action and two derivative suits over production capacity and contract value, a compensation proposal defeated on June 18, 2026 (15,194,017 to 21,304,013), four of five directors with more withheld than affirmative votes, and the for-cause termination of the Chief Revenue Officer on July 17, 2026 together with his July 21 lawsuit.
Dilution and valuation
85.5 million weighted shares in the first quarter of 2025 became 152,192,265 after May 19, 2026; as of March 31, 2026 a further 23 million shares stood behind options, warrants and plan reserves. At $8.51 (weighted average of the CEO sales, Form 4 of July 16, 2026) that corresponds to about $1.3 billion of market value and roughly 32 times fiscal 2025 revenue. The company itself puts net tangible book value after the offering at $2.80 per share.
Worth Noting
Red Cat reached the research list through the Reddit hype scanner, which measures which names are written about unusually often in the stock forums; that data was pulled on July 25, 2026. The cross-check against our own screens on July 27, 2026 showed: across the lists of our in-house stock scanner, Red Cat appears that day on exactly one, "EPS acceleration" (29 names). These lists are recalculated daily.
Recency status: the basis is the annual report (10-K) for 2025 filed March 19, 2026 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026 filed May 7, 2026. Every document filed afterwards was reviewed — the offering (424B5/8-K, May 2026), the closing of the Quaze acquisition (8-K, May 20, 2026), the annual meeting (8-K, June 25, 2026), the insider filings (Form 4) of June 15 and July 16, 2026, the notice of proposed sale (Form 144) of July 15, 2026 and the 8-K of July 22, 2026 on the termination of the Chief Revenue Officer.
Careful with time series: Red Cat moved its fiscal year end from April 30 to December 31. Between the year to April 30, 2024 and calendar 2025 sits a transition period of eight months. Percentage changes across those periods compare spans of unequal length. Market value here is not a feed number but is calculated from 152.2 million shares and $8.51 per share — the weighted average price of the CEO's sales per the Form 4 of July 16, 2026. The share count on the cover of the notice of proposed sale (Form 144) of July 15, 2026 still reads 122,742,361; that is plainly the unchanged May 5, 2026 figure from before the offering, and is therefore not used here.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at RCAT since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 6.10 $ to 17.40 $ · Last price: 7.10 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Aerospace & Defense
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Cat Holdings Inc RCAT | 1.1 | – | -1.8 | 9.8 | – | 459.8 | -37.1 |
| Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX | 1,172.1 | – | 511.6 | 51.9 | – | – | – |
| GE Aerospace GE | 326.7 | 40.1 | 27.6 | 31.1 | 20.2 | 18.5 | 8.8 |
| RTX Corporation RTX | 254.2 | 36.5 | 18.5 | 20.3 | 13.2 | 9.7 | 24.1 |
| The Boeing Company BA | 155.3 | 78.7 | 25.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 34.5 | -8.2 |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | 124.1 | 26.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 16.7 |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | 96.7 | 22.8 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | 90.3 | 52.0 | 34.8 | 36.0 | 28.2 | 11.1 | 22.0 |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | 73.6 | 16.6 | 11.8 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 2.2 | -7.7 |
| Median of companies shown | 124.1 | 36.5 | 18.5 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 10.1 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0 | -1 | -3 | -96.56 | -2 | -5 | 1 |
| 2018 | 0 | -2 | -3 | – | -1 | – | – |
| 2019 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -2.63 | -1 | -3 | 1 |
| 2020 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -0.12 | -1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2021 | 5 | -5 | -13 | -0.56 | -1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2022 | 6 | -13 | -12 | -0.24 | -16 | 78 | 85 |
| 2023 | 5 | -26 | -28 | -0.52 | -30 | 55 | 61 |
| 2024 | 18 | -18 | -24 | -0.40 | -19 | 44 | 49 |
| 2025 | 7 | -39 | -65 | -0.85 | -21 | 50 | 56 |
| 2026 | 41 | -67 | -72 | -0.60 | -89 | 246 | 274 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025: Q1 | -0.27 | – | 2 | -72.10 | -1,418.60 | -16 | -16 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.15 | – | 3 | -50.00 | -415.00 | -16 | -16 |
| 2025: Q3 | -0.15 | – | 10 | 242.90 | -166.80 | -13 | -13 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.16 | – | 26 | 1,646.70 | -166.00 | -24 | -25 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.22 | – | 16 | 868.80 | -171.30 | -37 | -42 |
| 2026: Q2 | -0.26 | – | 20 | 531.30 | -174.50 | -32 | -39 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 5 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.74 | -0.80 – -0.68 | 152 | -5.3% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | -0.56 | -0.67 – -0.44 | 222 | 25.0% | 2 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Die KI-Software steckt im verkauften Produkt: Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 beschreibt die umsatztragende Drohne Black Widow ausdrücklich mit zuschaltbaren integrierten KI-Software-Fähigkeiten, das Unternehmen bestätigt den Einsatz von KI-Technologien in seinen Produkten, und im März 2026 kaufte es für 19,8 Mio. US-Dollar den Schwarm-Autonomie-Entwickler Apium hinzu.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„Teal products include the Black Widow™, which enables swift adaptation to mission requirements, including SRR with selectable integrated AI software capabilities."
Zu den Teal-Produkten gehört die Black Widow™, die eine schnelle Anpassung an die Einsatzanforderungen ermöglicht — einschließlich SRR mit zuschaltbaren integrierten KI-Software-Fähigkeiten.
10-K · 2026-03-19 · View SEC filing
„We currently incorporate AI Technologies into certain of our products, solutions and business functions, and may seek to expand or alter the use of AI Technologies in the future."
Wir setzen KI-Technologien derzeit in bestimmten unserer Produkte, Lösungen und Geschäftsfunktionen ein und werden ihre Nutzung künftig möglicherweise ausweiten oder verändern.
10-K · 2026-03-19 · View SEC filing
„On March 27, 2026, the Company purchased the assets of Apium, Inc. and Apium Swarming Robotics, Inc. and created a new subsidiary called Apium Swarming Technologies, Inc. (“Apium”) to deepen the Company's ability to deliver intelligent, adaptive unmanned systems that enable coordinated operations in contested and communication-degraded environments."
Am 27. März 2026 erwarb das Unternehmen die Vermögenswerte von Apium, Inc. und Apium Swarming Robotics, Inc. und gründete eine neue Tochtergesellschaft namens Apium Swarming Technologies, Inc. („Apium“), um die Fähigkeit des Unternehmens zu vertiefen, intelligente, anpassungsfähige unbemannte Systeme zu liefern, die koordinierte Einsätze in umkämpften und kommunikationsgestörten Umgebungen ermöglichen.
10-Q · 2026-05-07 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-K 2026-03-19 · 10-Q 2025-11-13 · 10-Q 2025-08-14 · 10-Q 2025-05-14 · 10-K 2024-08-08
Rated on July 27, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 106.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 42.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 30.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 224.7%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 3.1%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 6.5%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 149 m net cash
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 33 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -25.7%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 9.1%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
5/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 80.5%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 133.5%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 133.5%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT –
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% –
- Return on equity > 15% -32.6%
- ROCE > 15% -25.7%
- Expected return > 10% 113.7%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JR | Director | Sell | 65,000 | 8.50 | 552,500 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | Sell | 150,000 | 10.45 | 1,567,500 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Moe Christopher R. | Director | Sell | 20,000 | 10.51 | 210,200 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JR | Director | Sell | 55,000 | 10.63 | 584,650 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | Sell | 150,000 | 8.51 | 1,276,500 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Moe Christopher R. | Director | Sell | 10,000 | 10.04 | 100,400 |
The company
About the Company
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. bietet zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften Drohnen- und Robotiklösungen für Verteidigung, nationale Sicherheit und kommerzielle Anwendungen in den USA an.
- Employees
- 244
- Headquarters
- South Salt Lake, UT
- Address
- 2800 South West Temple, 84115 South Salt Lake, United States
- Phone
- 800 466 9152
- Website
- redcat.red
- IPO Date
- 09/22/2017
- ISIN
- US75644T1007
- Stock Split
- 1:1200 on 08/01/2019
- Stock Split
- 1:10 on 11/22/2016
- Stock Split
- 1:150 on 07/23/2014
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey M. Thompson | Founder, President, CEO & Chairman | 1964 |
| Christian Koji Ericson | Chief Operating Officer | 1977 |
| Christian Morrison | CFO, Treasurer & Secretary | 1983 |
| Sam Pelletier | Vice President of Finance & Accounting | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 08/06/2026 Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 07/22/2026 Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.