Nucor Corp (NUE)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Whoever holds the stock holds a superbly financed market leader with the longest dividend-increase streak in American industry and only has to stomach the cycle swings that come with the breed. Whoever buys new is betting that tariffs, data center demand and the West Virginia mill will set the next earnings peak higher than the current valuation (trailing P/E near 24, near the all-time high, data as of mid-July 2026) already assumes — with only a 0.9 percent running yield as a cushion. Whoever waits checks three lines in every quarterly report (10-Q): sales price per ton and metal margin, imports' share of the U.S. market, and the progress of the West Virginia ramp-up. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Nucor is America's largest steelmaker — and a Dividend King: the base dividend has been raised in every single year since payments began in 1973, and February 2026 brought the 212th consecutive quarterly dividend. Our in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner ranks the stock second in its U.S. selection (as of July 18, 2026). We read the annual reports (10-K) and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of April 4, 2026: earnings per share that melted from $28.79 to $7.52 before snapping back to $3.23 in a single quarter, global overcapacity worth eight times U.S. production, a cyberattack that idled mills — and a dividend that refuses to notice any of it. Not investment advice — just the owner's manual for a quality seal that is easy to misread.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 18, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at NUE since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 8 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 257.30 $ — 93% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
NeutralGeprüft am 18.07.2026 gegen die beiden jüngsten Geschäftsberichte (10-K 2025, eingereicht 25.02.2026, und 10-K 2024, eingereicht 27.02.2025) sowie die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, eingereicht 13.05.2026, 12.11.2025, 13.08.2025 und 14.05.2025): In keinem der sechs ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Nucor findet sich auch nur eine einzige Erwähnung von „artificial intelligence“, „machine learning“, „generative“, „LLM“ oder „AI“ — weder als Umsatzquelle noch als operativer Einsatz noch als Geschäftsrisiko. Ergänzend geprüft wurde das aktuelle Proxy Statement (DEF 14A vom 27.03.2026); dort ist der einzige „AI“-Treffer der Firmenname „Tempus AI, Inc.“ als anderweitiges Board-Mandat einer Direktorin, also ohne jeden Bezug zu Nucors Geschäft. Der Stahlhersteller berichtet über Stahl-Überkapazitäten, Handelspolitik, Rechenzentrums-Baustahl-Nachfrage und einen Cybervorfall, führt aber nichts davon auf KI zurück — dokumentierter Negativ-Befund, daher „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-13 · 10-Q 2025-11-12 · 10-Q 2025-08-13 · 10-Q 2025-05-14 · 10-K 2026-02-25 · 10-K 2025-02-27
Rated on July 18, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable Delays disclosed openlyNucor executes well operationally and has beaten its own quarterly guidance in every instance documented on the calls since late 2024. Comparing the ten calls from 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2 does show repeatedly slipping deadlines and one withdrawn volume target — but in the two biggest cases (the Brandenburg volume target and the Pacific Northwest rebar project) management itself announced and explained the change in its prepared remarks rather than burying it. Two items remain worth tracking: the Expand Beyond target of over 450 million dollars of 2025 EBITDA, which was never reconciled, and the Indiana towers plant, whose completion slid by roughly a year across five calls while always being presented as on schedule. The rhetoric has also grown noticeably more promotional since 2025.
10 calls reviewed, 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2 · As of August 2, 2026
Brandenburg: volume target withdrawn after one quarter, openly and with reasons
On the 2024-Q1 call, management confirmed roughly 500,000 tons of 2024 shipments for the Brandenburg plate mill — after 50,000 tons in Q1, with volumes slated to double each following quarter. Just one quarter later, about 60,000 tons shipped instead of the implied roughly 100,000. The target was not dropped quietly: on the 2024-Q2 call the CEO explicitly withdrew it in his prepared remarks, citing softer market conditions, elevated plate imports and a focus on capabilities rather than volume. The capability framing was not a retroactive reinterpretation either — it was already used on the 2024-Q1 call ('it continues to be a capability story'). From 2025 the mill delivered strongly, exceeding 230,000 tons per quarter by 2026-Q2.
Brandenburg: EBITDA deadline pushed back half a year, definition moved too
In 2024-Q2, management set the goal that Brandenburg would be EBITDA positive by year-end 2024 and reach full run-rate capability in 2024. In 2024-Q3 the CEO said the mill had already achieved positive EBITDA; the responsible executive clarified in the same call that the commitment had been an EBITDA breakeven run rate by year-end, which they had already reached in September on a melt, cast and rolling basis. On the 2024-Q4 call the deadline then read 'consistent EBITDA positive results by the middle of 2025'. Reported on a quarterly basis, that first happened in 2025-Q2 — roughly half a year after the original date, with the yardstick shifting from 'run rate' to 'consistent' alongside the date. The revised deadline was kept.
Pacific Northwest rebar mill: pause and cancellation both self-disclosed, rationale changed
On the 2024-Q4 call, the CEO acknowledged under questioning a pause at the announced Pacific Northwest rebar micro mill and stressed this was not a market concern but a matter of capital-execution timing. Nine months later management dropped the project of its own accord in the prepared remarks of the 2025-Q3 call — arguing the existing footprint already covers the western U.S. and Canada with cost and supply-chain advantages. Both steps were therefore openly communicated; the only criticism that stands is that the rationale shifted between pause and cancellation. No date or investment figure for the project had ever been given on the calls.
The 450 million Expand Beyond target was never reconciled
In 2024-Q4, management projected over 450 million dollars of 2025 EBITDA for the Expand Beyond platforms (doors, racking, insulated panels), and roughly 450 million in 2025-Q1. When an analyst asked directly in 2025-Q3 whether that was achievable, the CFO said the business was doing fine and hitting its clip, then pointed to the long-term run rate of 700 million dollars instead of confirming the annual figure; on the 2025-Q4 year-end call the 450 million target did not appear at all. A similar looseness showed up in a market estimate: incremental demand from US stimulus programs drifted from 5 to 8 million tons annually (2024-Q1) to a recalled 3 to 5 million tons (2024-Q3) — though there the CEO volunteered that they were running below it.
Timelines slip yet always count as on schedule
The Indiana towers plant was slated for 2025 per the 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q4 calls, then moved to the first quarter of 2026 in 2025-Q1, to spring 2026 in 2025-Q2, to mid-2026 in 2025-Q3, and to full operations in the third quarter of 2026 in 2026-Q1 — each step presented as on schedule, though the new date was always stated. The Lexington micro mill likewise missed the commissioning promised for the first quarter of 2025 on the 2024-Q2 call: the first billet ran in April 2025, the first heat in June/July 2025, commercial shipments from Q3 2025 — without the slip being acknowledged. Its sister project in Alabama, by contrast, started up in 2025 as announced, and the flagship West Virginia project stayed on time and on budget across all ten calls; commissioning was underway as announced in 2026-Q2.
Counterpoint: guidance beats and kept promises, but escalating rhetoric
Nucor delivers reliably: its own mid-quarter guidance was beaten in every instance quantified on the calls — 2024-Q4 (0.62 dollars per share above midpoint), 2025-Q3 (about 0.50), 2026-Q1 (about 0.50) and 2026-Q2 (0.29); the only documented miss dates from 2024-Q1 (roughly 4 percent below midpoint). The 2025-Q3 commitment to make Lexington and Kingman EBITDA positive by the first quarter of 2026 was met in March 2026 per the 2026-Q1 call, as was the Crawfordsville deadline. In parallel, however, the language escalates: from 2025-Q3 the CEO speaks of a tsunami of earnings power, and in 2026-Q1 he references the share price and declares the company is just getting warmed up — raising the 2026 volume outlook in the same call's Q&A from above 5 percent toward double digits, which 2026-Q2 confirmed. The solid delivery record should be kept separate from the increasingly promotional tone.
Management promises
-
2024-Q1 broken
Brandenburg to ship roughly 500,000 tons in 2024 (Q1: 50,000, then doubling each quarter).
Explicitly withdrawn by the CEO in his prepared remarks as early as 2024-Q2; about 60,000 tons shipped instead of roughly 100,000. The withdrawal was justified by market conditions, import pressure and the focus on capabilities over volume already stated in 2024-Q1.
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2024-Q2 broken
Brandenburg to reach full run-rate capability and become EBITDA positive by year-end 2024.
Per the responsible executive, the EBITDA breakeven run rate was reached on a melt, cast and rolling basis as early as September 2024; on a reported quarterly basis the mill only turned EBITDA positive in 2025-Q2, after the deadline was recast in 2024-Q4 as 'consistently positive by mid-2025'.
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2024-Q4 kept
Brandenburg to achieve consistent EBITDA positive results by mid-2025.
Achieved in 2025-Q2 and confirmed in 2025-Q3 and 2026-Q2 with record shipments and record earnings — the revised deadline was kept.
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2024-Q4 broken
The Alabama and Indiana towers and structures plants both start up in 2025.
Alabama started up in 2025 as announced (pole production and galvanizing from the third quarter). Indiana, by contrast, slid step by step across five calls to full operations in the third quarter of 2026 — each new date was stated, but presented as on schedule.
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2024-Q4 open
The three Expand Beyond platforms to generate over 450 million dollars of EBITDA in 2025.
Asked directly in 2025-Q3, the CFO called the business on track but pointed to the long-term 700 million dollar goal rather than the annual figure; it was never reported again on the 2025-Q4 year-end call or thereafter.
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2025-Q3 kept
The new Lexington (North Carolina) and Kingman (Arizona) mills to be EBITDA positive by the first quarter of 2026.
Per the 2026-Q1 call, both mills were EBITDA positive in March 2026 — delivered on schedule.
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2024-Q4 kept
The Crawfordsville galvanizing and coating complex to start operating by late 2025.
The first coil ran through the new line in 2025-Q3 and it was EBITDA positive by 2026-Q1; only the paint line follows later in 2026.
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2024-Q2 open
The West Virginia sheet mill to be completed by the end of 2026, then begin its ramp-up.
Reaffirmed on every call since; per 2026-Q2, commissioning of the melt shop and galv lines is on time and on budget — the real test is the 2027 ramp with roughly 50 percent utilization targeted by end of 2027.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 8.9% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 15
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 18.43 | 17.37 – 19.76 | 40,202 | 139.1% | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 18.23 | 14.14 – 22.23 | 40,813 | -1.1% | 14 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 1.23 | -61.40 | 7,076 | -8.20 | 4.10 | 733 | -146 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.67 | -80.70 | 7,830 | -3.80 | 2.00 | 364 | -495 |
| 2025: Q2 | 2.61 | -2.80 | 8,456 | 4.70 | 7.10 | 732 | -222 |
| 2025: Q3 | 2.62 | 148.50 | 8,521 | 14.50 | 7.10 | 1,339 | 532 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.65 | 34.40 | 7,687 | 8.60 | 4.90 | 799 | -3 |
| 2026: Q1 | 3.24 | 383.80 | 9,496 | 21.30 | 7.80 | 886 | 225 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16,208 | 1,429 | 796 | 2.49 | 1,750 | 7,880 | 15,224 |
| 2017 | 20,252 | 1,882 | 1,319 | 4.11 | 1,055 | 8,739 | 15,841 |
| 2018 | 25,067 | 3,435 | 2,361 | 7.45 | 2,394 | 9,792 | 17,921 |
| 2019 | 22,589 | 1,968 | 1,271 | 4.16 | 2,809 | 10,358 | 18,345 |
| 2020 | 20,140 | 1,650 | 721 | 2.38 | 2,697 | 10,789 | 20,125 |
| 2021 | 36,484 | 9,319 | 6,827 | 23.27 | 6,231 | 14,016 | 25,823 |
| 2022 | 41,512 | 10,506 | 7,607 | 28.91 | 10,072 | 18,415 | 32,479 |
| 2023 | 34,714 | 6,230 | 4,525 | 18.07 | 7,112 | 20,940 | 35,340 |
| 2024 | 30,734 | 2,979 | 2,027 | 8.50 | 3,979 | 20,294 | 33,940 |
| 2025 | 32,494 | 2,659 | 1,744 | 7.55 | 3,234 | 20,936 | 35,104 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Base dividend raised every year since 1973, 212th consecutive quarterly dividend (February 2026), a 2025 payout ratio of only about 29 percent, and a commitment to return at least 40 percent of net earnings including buybacks — the streak is armored against steel troughs by a low ratio and balance-sheet strength (10-K 2025).
Funded debt to capital of 24.4 percent (end of 2025), current ratio of 2.9, $2.48 billion in cash and short-term investments (April 4, 2026), Altman Z near 10, the highest ratings of any North American steel producer (A-/A3/A-) — though the cash pile has nearly halved since the end of 2024 ($4.14 billion) under the capex supercycle.
Earnings per share fell from $28.79 (2022) to $7.52 (2025) and revenue from $41.5 billion to $30.7 billion (2024) before 2025/Q1 2026 turned — Nucor's results hang on metal margin and steel prices it does not control; the OECD puts global overcapacity at eight times U.S. production.
Q1 2026: revenue up 21 percent to $9.5 billion, net earnings of $743 million ($3.23 per share) after $156 million a year earlier, record shipments, 86 percent utilization, $886 million in operating cash flow, historically high backlogs (10-Q as of 04/04/2026, 10-K 2025).
Imports' share of the U.S. finished steel market fell from over 22 to about 15 percent (Q1 2025 → Q1 2026) on Section 232 tariffs and trade cases — a real tailwind, but one that depends on political decisions that can change; China is shifting capacity to third countries to circumvent tariffs (10-K 2025, 10-Q).
Trailing P/E near 24 (near 15 on 2026 estimates), price-to-book near 2.6, up 47 percent year to date and only about 10 percent below the all-time high (data as of mid-July 2026) — much of the comeback is priced in; a dividend yield of roughly 0.9 percent does not support the valuation.
Nucor is proof that Dividend Kingship and cyclicality are no contradiction: the base dividend has risen every year since 1973 because, at roughly 29 percent of 2025 earnings, it is deliberately kept small — while earnings per share fell 74 percent in three years and then quadrupled in a single quarter in early 2026. Against that stand a fortress balance sheet with A ratings, a capex supercycle around the $4 billion West Virginia mill, and a valuation that already largely pays for the comeback after a 47 percent year-to-date gain. Whoever buys here buys the discipline — and carries the cycle. Not investment advice.
- NUE reached the research list through the in-house Dividend Aristocrats scanner: rank 2 of the U.S. selection (as of July 18, 2026); simultaneous hits in "Martin Zweig: growth with discipline" and "Altman-Z: fortress balance sheet" — quality and balance-sheet strength confirm each other across scanners.
- On counting the streak: the annual report (10-K) for 2025 states "increased its base cash dividend every year since the Company began paying dividends in 1973"; our scanner carries Nucor with 51 years of increases (curated list, as of June 2026). The dividend yield of roughly 0.9 percent refers to the $2.24 annual run rate at a share price around $249 (data as of mid-July 2026).
- Scanner metrics (P/E, P/S, Piotroski, Altman Z) use trailing twelve-month figures; the Q1 2026 earnings jump is included, the remaining 2026 quarters naturally are not. Analyses are evergreen; daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Nucor Corporation fertigt und verkauft Stahl und Stahlprodukte. Das Unternehmen ist in drei Segmenten tätig: Steel Mills, Steel Products und Raw Materials.
| Employees | 33,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Charlotte, NC |
| Address | 1915 Rexford Road, 28211 Charlotte, United States |
| Phone | 704 366 7000 |
| Website | nucor.com |
| IPO Date | 1. Sep 1983 |
| ISIN | US6703461052 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 06/01/2006 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Leon J. Topalian | Chairman of the Board & CEO | 1968 |
| Stephen D. Laxton | President & COO | 1971 |
| K. Rex Query | Executive Vice President of Strategy | 1966 |
| John L. Sullivan | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 1974 |
| Chris Jacobi | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Douglas R. Wilner | President of Corporate Legal Affairs & General Counsel | – |
| Elizabeth Bledsoe | President of Human Resources & Talent | 1973 |
| D. Chad Utermark | Executive Vice President of New Markets & Innovation | 1969 |
| Gregory J. Murphy | Executive VP & Advisor | 1964 |
| Allen C. Behr | Executive Vice President of Raw Materials | 1975 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.