National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

• Sales growth 10Y > 5% 5.1%
• Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 15.1%
• EBIT growth 10Y > 5% –
• Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 17.1%
• Net debt < 4x EBIT 3.4x
• EBIT positive, 10Y straight 9
• Max. EBIT decline < 50% 95.0%
• Return on equity > 15% 16.8%
• ROCE > 15% 10.4%
• Expected return > 10% 19.9%

View all AAQS quality stocks · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

National Fuel Gas verkauft keine KI-Produkte und weist auch keinen KI-gestützten Kernprozess aus. In den Berichten taucht künstliche Intelligenz ausschließlich im Risikoteil auf — als zusätzliche Angriffsfläche für Datenschutz- und Cybervorfälle durch die Einführung generativer KI-Werkzeuge. Eine indirekte Verbindung besteht auf der Nachfrageseite: Die Tochter Supply Corporation transportiert Erdgas zum im Bau befindlichen Kraftwerk Shippingport in Pennsylvania, das ein daneben entstehendes Rechenzentrum versorgen soll. Das ist Gastransport zu einem Stromerzeuger, kein eigenes KI-Geschäft — deshalb neutral.

Between the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2026, National Fuel Gas delivered on most operational fronts: earnings guidance for the two completed fiscal years was met or clearly exceeded, the regulated utility acquisition flagged since 2024 was signed, and both pipeline expansion projects are on schedule. What stands out is the handling of one shareholder commitment: the 200 million dollar buyback launched in the second quarter of 2024 was supposed to be finished in fiscal 2025, was pushed back twice and has not been mentioned in any call since the fourth quarter of 2025, while the company issued 350 million dollars of new stock in December 2025. Management explained both postponements, but never the fate of the program itself. The core message repeated for two years, more production on less capital, also cracked for the first time in fiscal 2026. We therefore rate the communication as conspicuous, without implying operational weakness.

9 calls reviewed, 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2 · As of August 3, 2026

Management promises

• 2024-Q3 broken

  The 200 million dollar share buyback program will be completed by the end of fiscal 2025.

  Reaffirmed in the fourth quarter 2024 call, moved to end of calendar 2025 in the second quarter 2025 call citing market uncertainty, then to 2026 in the third quarter 2025 call in favour of potential acquisitions. Not completed as of the second quarter 2026 call.

• 2025-Q3 open

  Should the growth opportunities under review not materialise, the buyback program will be completed in 2026.

  The condition was met: the growth opportunity arrived in the form of the Ohio acquisition, so this commitment was not broken. What remains open is the fate of the program, unmentioned in three consecutive calls since, while the company issued 350 million dollars of new stock in December 2025 to fund the acquisition.

• 2025-Q3 broken

  Fiscal 2026 production of 440 to 455 Bcf on roughly four percent less capital.

  Reaffirmed twice, then cut to 425 to 440 Bcf in the second quarter 2026 call. Blamed on weather and road closures shifting volumes into later periods, plus four underperforming wells of an older design. Capital is trending towards the high end of the range.

• 2024-Q2 broken

  A new rate case for the Supply Corporation pipeline business will likely be filed within a year.

  Phrased as an expectation, not a firm commitment. The filing was made on the day of the second quarter 2026 call, roughly a year after the window originally named. The revised timing was restated in every call from the third quarter 2025 onward and justified by modernisation spending and cost inflation.

• 2024-Q1 kept

  After one more quarter the Seneca capital guidance range will be tightened.

  Delivered and then some: the upper bound was cut in both the second and third quarter 2024 calls, and the fiscal year finished at the low end of the range.

• 2025-Q2 kept

  Acquisitions are to happen on the regulated side, most likely a local gas distribution company.

  Made concrete in the fourth quarter 2025 call as the purchase of the Ohio gas utility, with closing planned for the fourth calendar quarter of 2026. Financing was largely in place as of the second quarter 2026 call.

• 2024-Q2 open

  The Tioga Pathway pipeline project will go into service in late calendar 2026.

  The date has held across nine calls. Approval in May 2025, construction start in spring 2026, and a November 2026 target confirmed in the second quarter 2026 call.

Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 9 transcripts 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2.

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

• Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 1.4% failed
• More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 17.5% passed
• Share count grows by less than 3% a year -0.3% passed
• Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 25.3% failed
• Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 66.1% passed
• Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.1% passed
• Net debt below twice EBITDA 2.1 x EBITDA failed
• Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 2,330 m passed
• Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 10.4% passed
• Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 1.3% failed

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail