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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
LVWR

LiveWire Group Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers · listed since 2022

1.40$ +19.3% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Substance risk

We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.

Why this colour

Buying today is not a bet on a market share but on a window of time: that the electric motorcycle market grows faster than LiveWire runs out of equity — $11.9 million as of June 30, 2026, against company guidance of a $70 million to $80 million operating loss for 2026 and a $75 million repayment due December 15, 2027. And that Harley-Davidson, holding 88.4 percent, keeps funding it even though nothing obliges the parent to. If you wait, check three lines in every quarterly report: equity, cash, and motorcycle units sold. The extremely tight float of roughly 12.6 million shares makes the price additionally independent of the business — that is the reason for caution. The decision is yours.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

LiveWire is the percentage-without-a-denominator trap in its purest form: the reported 76 percent share of the U.S. market for electric motorcycles above 50 kilowatts is documented — but it rests on 653 motorcycles sold in 2025 and 358 in the first half of 2026, while the larger business is kids' balance bikes. The cost turnaround is genuinely working (net loss reduced from $109.6 million to $75.1 million, second quarter 2026 revenue up 55 percent), yet the cushion is melting faster: $11.9 million of equity as of June 30, 2026 against $76.8 million of secured debt owed to majority owner Harley-Davidson, which holds 88.40 percent of the shares and must approve any equity raise. Not investment advice.

Cost turnaround

The turnaround delivers measurably: net loss down from $109.6 million (2023) to $93.9 million (2024) and $75.1 million (2025), total operating costs from $154.0 million to $101.2 million. Free cash outflow in the first half of 2026 was $27.7 million against $34.4 million a year earlier.

Scale of the business

The reported 76 percent market share (year-to-date through June 30, 2026, U.S. segment of 50 kilowatts and above) rests on 653 motorcycles sold in 2025 and 358 in the first half of 2026. Motorcycle segment revenue has fallen from $11.5 million in 2023 to $6.1 million; the larger business is kids' balance bikes at $19.6 million.

Balance sheet and liquidity

Shareholders' equity fell from $115.1 million (Dec 31, 2024) to $46.0 million (Dec 31, 2025) and $11.9 million (June 30, 2026); cash from $82.8 million to $52.9 million. Against that stand $76.8 million of debt secured on substantially all assets and maturing December 15, 2027 — with company guidance of a $70 million to $80 million operating loss for 2026.

Dependence on the majority owner

Harley-Davidson holds 88.40 percent of the shares through a subsidiary (March 23, 2026) and is simultaneously lender, contract manufacturer and service provider — and must approve every equity raise under the at-the-market program. The first $10.0 million of net proceeds flows back to that same owner as a mandatory prepayment.

Product push

The cheaper S4 Honcho entered production in the second quarter of 2026, and the Dust Motorcycles acquisition (May 18, 2026) opens the off-road segment. Unit sales are picking up (Q2 2026: 267 against 55). The acquisition, however, is paid largely in the company's own shares, with an earn-out of up to $11.25 million.

Price formation and float

The float is roughly 12.6 million of 204.8 million shares (as of July 25, 2026). On July 24, 2026, 103.3 million shares traded in a single day — many times the float. In a stock this tight, the price can diverge far from business performance, in both directions.

Worth Noting

LVWR reached the research list through our in-house Reddit hype scanner: 5 mentions in 24 hours and rank 81 among the most-discussed U.S. stocks, after the ticker had not been listed at all 24 hours earlier (ApeWisdom data, as of July 25, 2026). In the fundamental scanners the stock sits, as of the same date, in "Going Concern (distress proxy)", "Professionals 80%" and "Below the 50- and 200-day average". Scanner memberships are snapshots and change daily.

An important qualification on the distress filter: the Form 10-K for 2025 contains no going-concern warning from the auditor. The Form 10-Q for March 31, 2026 expressly states that existing resources are sufficient for at least twelve months — and that additional capital will be required. Both statements sit in the same paragraph.

All valuation figures are dated and meant to be evergreen: market capitalization of roughly $299 million as of the July 24, 2026 trading day, trailing four-quarter revenue of $31.3 million. Daily prices are not a reason to buy. Not to be confused: LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is a separate listed company and is not identical to the LiveWire reportable segment inside Harley-Davidson, whose figures under U.S. GAAP may differ.

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at LVWR since then.

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Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 0.648 $ to 6.20 $ · Last price: 1.40 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 0.3$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 205m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 6.6%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. 1.6

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. 44.60%
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. -23.60%
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. -50.80%
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). -66.97%
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. -76.5%
Perf. 1Y ?Price performance over the last 12 months. -73.46%
Perf. 3Y ?Price performance over the last 3 years. -85.80%
Perf. 5Y ?Price performance over the last 5 years. -85.48%
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (11/23/2020) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. -85.28%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 1.30$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 1.20$
MA 200 Days ?Moving average of the last 200 trading days — the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. 2.00$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 58.5
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 109.9%
Volatility 250 Days ?Price swings over the last 250 trading days (roughly one market year), annualized. 151.5%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E.
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 0.0
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey.
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. 5.3
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. 9.2
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. -18.3
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up.

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. -10.9%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. -197.6%
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. -234.5%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? -160.2%
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). -39.4%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. 31.4%
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. 1.6
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. warning zone -1.94
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. 4 out of 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 55.20%
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 0.00%
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. -3.61%
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee.
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee.

Dividend

This stock currently pays no dividend.

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line.
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks.
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth.
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. C (49 out of 100)

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Auto Manufacturers

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
LiveWire Group Inc. LVWR 0.3 -18.3 -10.9 -197.6 -3.6 -73.5
Tesla Inc TSLA 1,459.8 328.4 117.7 18.9 4.2 -2.9 -14.0
Toyota Motor Corporation TM 229.6 8.7 7.8 16.8 7.9 5.5 -0.3
BYD Co Ltd ADR BYDDY 93.5 23.3 6.1 17.9 7.5 -0.6 -29.4
General Motors Company GM 78.4 31.5 10.2 10.2 9.4 -1.3 48.8
Ferrari NV RACE 72.8 38.7 22.7 51.6 31.1 7.0 -13.2
Ford Motor Company F 54.6 53.3 7.1 5.7 1.2 22.2
Honda Motor Co Ltd HMC 42.2 4.7 17.5 8.8 0.5 -0.7
Rivian Automotive Inc RIVN 20.8 -2.0 7.5 -63.8 8.4 9.1
Median of companies shown 72.8 31.5 7.8 16.8 7.5 0.5 -0.7

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2019 · Revenue: 20 $M 2019 · Operating income: -58 $M 2019 · Net income: -57 $M 2020 · Revenue: 31 $M 2020 · Operating income: -77 $M 2020 · Net income: -78 $M 2021 · Revenue: 36 $M 2021 · Operating income: -68 $M 2021 · Net income: -68 $M 2022 · Revenue: 47 $M 2022 · Operating income: -85 $M 2022 · Net income: -79 $M 2023 · Revenue: 38 $M 2023 · Operating income: -188 $M 2023 · Net income: -110 $M 2024 · Revenue: 27 $M 2024 · Operating income: -110 $M 2024 · Net income: -94 $M 2025 · Revenue: 26 $M 2025 · Operating income: -75 $M 2025 · Net income: -75 $M
2019202020212022202320242025
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2019 20 -58 -57 -0.35 -69 22 45
2020 31 -77 -78 -0.38 -54 2 52
2021 36 -68 -68 -0.42 -75 20 62
2022 47 -85 -79 -0.46 -90 307 352
2023 38 -188 -110 -0.54 -83 206 266
2024 27 -110 -94 -0.46 -94 115 148
2025 26 -75 -75 -0.37 -54 46 146

Quarters

Quarterly Figures

Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.

Revenue & Profit

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Margins

Per Share

Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.

None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.

These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.

The figures could not be loaded right now.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q3 · 4.4 $M Q3 2024: Q4 · 10.8 $M Q4 2025: Q1 · 2.7 $M Q1 2025: Q2 · 5.9 $M Q2 2025: Q3 · 5.7 $M Q3 2025: Q4 · 11.4 $M Q4 2026: Q1 · 5.1 $M Q1 2026: Q2 · 9.1 $M Q2

Source: fundamental data

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2024: Q3 -0.11 -1.50 4 -45.40 -510.60 -23 -25
2024: Q4 -0.11 25.30 11 -28.70 -211.70 -22 -23
2025: Q1 -0.09 -5.20 3 -44.90 -702.60 -18 -18
2025: Q2 -0.09 30.80 6 -8.90 -320.60 -15 -16
2025: Q3 -0.10 14.80 6 28.30 -340.20 -13 -14
2025: Q4 -0.09 22.90 11 5.50 -155.20 -8 -9
2026: Q1 -0.09 6.40 5 86.50 -354.40 -13 -14
2026: Q2 -0.09 0.00 9 55.20 -199.80 -13 -14

What Do These Terms Mean?

EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Compare with other stocks →

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Quality & Balance Sheet

Breakout & Setup

Research

Risk & Weakness

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus Hold 1 = Strong buy … 5 = Strong sell
Analyst Ratings 1
Price Target (average) 7.25$
Distance to price 417.9% The price target sits 417.9% above the current price.

Distribution of Recommendations

Strong Buy 0
Buy 0
Hold 1
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Valuation

What is priced in?

Free cash flow over the past twelve months is negative, which rules out a serious reverse calculation. Any growth rate only makes a negative cash flow more negative; no present value comes out of it. What the price reflects here is therefore not a stream of cash flows, but the expectation that there will be one at all.

A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Neutral

Kein KI-Geschaeftsmodell und kein belegter KI-Einsatz: In den Filings 2025/2026 kommt „artificial intelligence“ nur einmal vor, und zwar als Datenschutz-Risikohinweis; die Fahrzeugtechnik ist vernetzte Telematik (Cloud-Anbindung, Firmware-Updates ueber Funk), keine KI.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings

Filings Reviewed: 10-K 2026-02-20 · 10-Q 2026-05-06 · 8-K 2026-07-23 · 8-K 2026-05-22 · 8-K 2026-02-10 · DEF 14A 2026-04-09

Rated on July 25, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Growth

Growth Score

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

2 of 10 Weak growth
  • Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -18.2%
  • More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year no data
  • Share count grows by less than 3% a year 5.8%
  • Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -227.0%
  • Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion -17.3%
  • Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 5.7%
  • Net debt below twice EBITDA 7 m net cash
  • Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 48 m
  • Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago -61.0%
  • Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 94.3%

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail

Quality check

AAQS

1/10

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% 4.1%
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5%
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight 0
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50%
  • Return on equity > 15% -203.6%
  • ROCE > 15% -61.0%
  • Expected return > 10%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Jul 31, 2026 Cornog William L Director Sell 216 2.25 486
Jul 31, 2026 Gruner Kjell Director Sell 94,091 2.11 198,532
Jul 30, 2026 Gruner Kjell Director Sell 7,071 1.98 14,001
Jul 29, 2026 Nienhuis Jeremiah Head of Strat. & Product Ops. Sell 10,732 2.38 25,498
Jul 29, 2026 Donnez Karim Chief Executive Officer Sell 230,557 2.33 537,129

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

LiveWire Group, Inc. manufactures and sells electric motorcycles in the United States, Austria, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Electric Motorcycles and STACYC. It designs and sells electric motorcycles and parts, accessories, and apparel; electric balance bikes for kids; and adult pedal assist electric bikes. The company sells its products to wholesale, independent dealers and retailers, and independent distributors, as well as direct to consumers online. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. LiveWire Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Employees
151
Headquarters
Milwaukee, WI
Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, 53208 Milwaukee, United States
Phone
650 447 8424
IPO Date
09/26/2022
ISIN
US53838J1051
Stock Split
1:1 on 09/27/2022

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
Jonathan R. Root CFO, President & Chairman 1974
Karim Donnez Chief Executive Officer 1977
Allen Gerrard General Counsel & Board Secretary 1973
Jennifer Hoover Head Accounting Officer 1978
Jon Bekefy Head of Global Sales & Marketing 1977
Erica Case Head of Human Resources
Jeremy Nienhuis Head of Planning, Supply & Demand

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 09/03/2026 LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers SEC ↗
  • 07/29/2026 LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR): Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
  • 07/23/2026 LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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