Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Quality confirmed: decades of profitability, a gross margin near 50 percent, an equity ratio around 51 percent and a balance sheet our scanner files under "fortress" — the annual report (10-K) names concentration risks in China and with two major customers, but no substance finding. The rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the metrics scanners answer. The next tests are the closing-quarter numbers (expected in late July 2026) and the expiry of the rare-earth grace period in November 2026. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Lam Research builds the machines without which no modern chip gets made — and delivers one record after another in the AI boom: $18.4 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2025, a gross margin near 50 percent, a record quarter in March 2026. We read the annual report (10-K), the quarterly reports (10-Q) and the insider filings (Form 4): 34 percent of revenue comes from China and sits under export controls, two customers pay a third of the bills, and the CEO sold in July 2026 at $390 per share. Not investment advice — we simply count what the record costs and what it hangs on.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 18, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at LRCX since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 9 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 293.00 $ — 59% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AILam Research verkauft keine KI-Produkte — die Ätz- und Beschichtungsanlagen sind generische Chipfertigungs-Werkzeuge, und KI erscheint in Geschäfts- und Quartalsberichten (10-K/10-Q) durchgängig als externer Nachfrage-Treiber (inklusive des Ergebnisrisikos „Änderungen im Umfang der KI-Investitionen") —, aber der Geschäftsbericht (10-K) 2025 belegt den eigenen operativen Einsatz von maschinellem Lernen und KI in der Technologieentwicklung sowie den KI-Einsatz „durch uns" im Betrieb (Cyber-Risikokapitel), daher „Nutzt KI".
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„In addition, the emergence of “big data” and new tools such as machine learning and artificial intelligence (“AI”) that capitalize on the availability of large data sets is leading semiconductor manufacturers and equipment manufacturers to pursue new products and approaches that exploit those tools to advance technology development."
Zudem führt das Aufkommen von „Big Data" und neuen Werkzeugen wie maschinellem Lernen und Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI"), die die Verfügbarkeit großer Datensätze nutzen, dazu, dass Halbleiterhersteller und Anlagenbauer neue Produkte und Ansätze verfolgen, die diese Werkzeuge für den Fortschritt der Technologieentwicklung einsetzen.
„Further, the use of AI by us, our customers, suppliers, and third-party providers, among others, may also introduce unique vulnerabilities whose existence or exploitation could have a material adverse effect on our business or operations."
Darüber hinaus kann der Einsatz von KI durch uns, unsere Kunden, Zulieferer und Drittanbieter, unter anderem, auch besondere Schwachstellen mit sich bringen, deren Existenz oder Ausnutzung erhebliche nachteilige Auswirkungen auf unser Geschäft oder unseren Betrieb haben könnte.
„Demand from cloud computing, artificial intelligence (“AI”), 5G, the Internet of Things, and other markets is driving the need for increasingly powerful and cost-efficient semiconductors."
Die Nachfrage aus Cloud-Computing, Künstlicher Intelligenz („KI"), 5G, dem Internet der Dinge und anderen Märkten treibt den Bedarf an immer leistungsfähigeren und kosteneffizienteren Halbleitern.
„[…] changes in industry trends or demand drivers for semiconductor chips and semiconductor equipment, including changes in the level of investment in AI and related infrastructure […]"
[…] Änderungen bei Branchentrends oder Nachfrage-Treibern für Halbleiterchips und Halbleiter-Ausrüstung, einschließlich Änderungen im Umfang der Investitionen in KI und zugehörige Infrastruktur […]
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-23 · 10-Q 2026-01-29 · 10-Q 2025-10-24 · 10-Q 2025-04-25 · 10-K 2025-08-11 · 10-K 2024-08-29
Rated on July 10, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Positive delivers reliablyWe reviewed nine earnings call transcripts from Lam Research covering fiscal quarters 2024-Q3 through 2026-Q3. The picture is unusually clear: in all nine quarters, revenue and earnings came in at or above the midpoint of the company's own guidance ranges, and the strategic narrative — rising etch and deposition intensity, NAND upgrades, advanced packaging — stayed consistent over two years. The only notable pattern is a systematically conservative forecasting culture: the services business and the China outlook were repeatedly set too low and later revised upward. We found no broken commitments.
9 calls reviewed, 2024-Q3 through 2026-Q3 · As of August 2, 2026
Nine quarters without a guidance miss
From 2024-Q3 through 2026-Q3, revenue, margins and earnings per share came in at or above the midpoint of the previously stated ranges in every single quarter. Examples: guidance for the June 2024 quarter called for 7.50 USD in earnings per share, delivered were 8.14 USD (reported in 2024-Q4); in 2025-Q4, earnings per share of 1.33 USD exceeded the top of the range, repeated in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3 with 1.27 and 1.47 USD. Full-year industry spending forecasts (WFE) were never cut either, only raised — from about 100 billion USD for 2025 (2025-Q2) via 105 billion (2025-Q4) to 140 billion USD for 2026 (2026-Q3). A run like this across nine calls is rare in the industry.
Conservative forecasting: beats are partly built in
The CSBG services business was first framed as roughly flat for 2024 (2024-Q3), then lifted to modest growth (2024-Q4) — the final result was plus 11 percent (reported in 2025-Q2). Same pattern in 2025: flat (2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3), then modest growth (2025-Q4), ending in a record 7.2 billion USD (2026-Q2). For the December 2025 quarter, the CFO in 2025-Q4 still previewed revenue roughly at March levels of about 4.7 billion USD — three months later the plan was 5.2 billion and 5.34 billion was delivered (2026-Q1, 2026-Q2). Anyone rating the beats should factor in this built-in caution.
China outlook repeatedly off the mark
In 2024-Q4, management said 2025 should be a pretty solid year in China; one quarter later (2025-Q1) it forecast declining China WFE for 2025 — and played down the shift when an analyst pressed the point. In reality, the 2025 WFE forecast was then raised from 100 to 105 billion USD precisely because of China (2025-Q4). In 2026-Q1 came another call that the China revenue share would fall below 30 percent in 2026; by 2026-Q2 this had softened to flat to slightly up, and the share still stood at 34 percent in the March quarter (2026-Q3). On the plus side: when confronted in 2026-Q1 with having made the same wrong call a year earlier, the CFO openly admitted it.
NAND upgrade thesis consistent — and coming true
As early as 2024-Q3 and 2024-Q4, management announced an upgrade-driven NAND recovery starting in 2025; in 2025-Q2 this became a quantified framework of roughly 40 billion USD in conversion spending over several years. Delivery is verifiable: record upgrade revenues in 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q4, and a gain of over 90 percent for calendar 2025 (2026-Q2). In 2026-Q3 the thesis was sharpened again: the majority of the 40 billion USD is now expected to be spent by the end of calendar 2027. A story that stayed stable, checkable and on track for two years — the opposite of a quietly abandoned target.
Detail figures consistently withheld
Management declined across several calls to give precise revenue figures for the advanced packaging business: in 2025-Q2 the only answer was above 1 billion USD, and in 2026-Q2 the 2025 result was described merely as having grown nicely. The tariff hit to margins was explicitly not quantified when asked directly in 2025-Q3, and on gross margin sustainability the CFO answered there only that variability means it goes up sometimes and down sometimes. This is standard industry reticence, not a red flag — especially since checkable milestones kept coming: above 1 billion USD in 2024, above 3 billion combined with gate-all-around in 2025, plus 50 percent growth for 2026 (2026-Q3). It is a recurring pattern nonetheless.
Management promises
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2024-Q3 kept
Shipments into gate-all-around nodes exceeding 1 billion USD in calendar 2024.
Confirmed in 2025-Q2: gate-all-around nodes and advanced packaging each exceeded the 1 billion USD mark in 2024.
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2024-Q4 kept
Investor Day in February 2025 with an updated long-term financial model.
Held on February 19, 2025 in New York and used consistently as the reference framework from 2025-Q3 onward.
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2025-Q1 kept
China revenue share normalizes to around 30 percent in the December 2024 quarter.
The China share came in at 31 percent in the December quarter (reported in 2025-Q2) — almost exactly on target.
-
2025-Q2 kept
Combined 2025 shipments for gate-all-around plus advanced packaging well above 3 billion USD.
Per 2025-Q4, advanced packaging ran stronger than planned and 2025 closed with record foundry revenues; the target was never walked back, though no exact final figure was given.
-
2025-Q2 kept
CSBG services business to stay roughly flat in calendar 2025.
Clearly exceeded rather than merely met: record 7.2 billion USD, about 9 percent growth (reported in 2026-Q2) — the forecast was raised step by step during the year (2025-Q4, 2026-Q1).
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2026-Q1 open
China revenue share to fall below 30 percent in calendar 2026.
Softened in 2026-Q2 to low thirties or high twenties percent; the share stood at 34 percent in the March quarter (2026-Q3). The full-year outcome is open, the trend argues against the original call.
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2026-Q2 open
Updated long-term financial model to be presented later in 2026.
Reaffirmed in 2026-Q3 but not yet presented as of the cutoff date of this review.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 9 transcripts 2024-Q3 through 2026-Q3.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 25.6% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 33
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2027 | 9.48 | 8.44 – 10.82 | 34,754 | 62.8% | 28 |
| 06/30/2028 | 11.58 | 8.96 – 15.12 | 40,135 | 22.2% | 25 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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· Total · per year
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The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.92 | 27.80 | 4,376 | 16.40 | 27.20 | 742 | 853 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.03 | 40.70 | 4,720 | 24.40 | 28.20 | 1,309 | 1,021 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.35 | 73.10 | 5,171 | 33.60 | 33.30 | 2,554 | 2,382 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.24 | 44.40 | 5,324 | 27.70 | 29.50 | 1,779 | 1,594 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.26 | 36.60 | 5,345 | 22.10 | 29.80 | 1,480 | 1,665 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.45 | 40.50 | 5,842 | 23.80 | 31.20 | 1,141 | 810 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 8,014 | 1,902 | 1,698 | 0.92 | 2,029 | 6,987 | 12,123 |
| 2018 | 11,077 | 3,213 | 2,381 | 1.32 | 2,656 | 6,580 | 12,479 |
| 2019 | 9,654 | 2,465 | 2,191 | 1.37 | 3,176 | 4,723 | 12,001 |
| 2020 | 10,045 | 2,674 | 2,252 | 1.51 | 2,126 | 5,183 | 14,559 |
| 2021 | 14,626 | 4,482 | 3,908 | 2.69 | 3,588 | 6,027 | 15,892 |
| 2022 | 17,227 | 5,382 | 4,605 | 3.27 | 3,100 | 6,278 | 17,196 |
| 2023 | 17,427 | 5,175 | 4,511 | 3.32 | 5,179 | 8,210 | 18,782 |
| 2024 | 14,905 | 4,264 | 3,828 | 2.90 | 4,652 | 8,539 | 18,745 |
| 2025 | 18,436 | 5,901 | 5,358 | 4.15 | 6,173 | 9,862 | 21,345 |
| 2026 | 23,233 | 8,200 | 7,265 | 5.76 | 5,858 | 12,471 | 23,530 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Revenue up 24 percent to $18.4 billion in fiscal year 2025, another +24 percent in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, a record quarter in March 2026 and guidance of roughly $6.6 billion for the closing quarter — the AI investment cycle pays straight into Lam's order books.
A gross margin around 49 to 50 percent, a 35 percent operating margin, a 29 percent net margin in fiscal year 2025; about $4.75 billion in cash and an equity ratio around 51 percent — our scanner rightly lists the stock in the "Altman-Z: balance-sheet fortress".
A quarterly dividend since 2014 and massive buybacks ($3.6 billion in nine months of FY 2026) — but the buyback prices doubled within two quarters ($105.67 to $210.57), and more recently flowed to shareholders than came in from operations.
34 percent of fiscal year 2025 revenue (37 percent in nine months of FY 2026) from China under U.S. license reservation with no assurance of approval; at the same time China controls rare earths for Lam's supply chain — the suspension applies only in part and until November 2026.
Two unnamed major customers = 32 percent of fiscal year 2025 revenue; the investment decision of individual groups moves demand, and fiscal year 2024 showed with revenue down 14.5 percent how fast the equipment cycle turns.
A price-to-earnings ratio around 70 and price-to-sales around 25 after roughly +311 percent in twelve months (data as of July 10, 2026); the CEO sold at $390.01 on July 2, 2026, board member Brandt a good quarter of his position in June, board member Talwalkar 18,282 shares in July.
Lam Research is a flawless cyclical in record form: the AI boom fills the order books, the margins are first-rate, the balance sheet a fortress. But a third of the revenue hangs on China and thus on two feuding governments, two customers pay a third of the bills, and after the stock's quadrupling within twelve months its price assumes none of this ever becomes a problem. Not investment advice.
- The fiscal year ends in late June: "fiscal year 2025" = July 2024 through June 29, 2025; the closing quarter of fiscal year 2026 ends on June 28, 2026, with the numbers usually presented in late July.
- All price and share figures are split-adjusted (10-for-1 stock split in October 2024). Insider sales are legal and often long pre-planned; CEO Archer still holds more than a million shares after the July 2, 2026 sale.
- Governance margin note: after 44 years, Lam changed its audit firm for fiscal year 2026 (Ernst & Young since 1981, KPMG from September 2025) — per the current report (8-K) of September 11, 2025, without disagreements.
About the Company
Lam Research Corporation entwickelt, fertigt, vermarktet und wartet Anlagen zur Halbleiterbearbeitung für die Fertigung integrierter Schaltkreise in den USA, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Südostasien und Europa. Das Unternehmen bietet ALTUS-Systeme zur konformen Abscheidung an.
| Employees | 20,600 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Fremont, CA |
| Address | 4650 Cushing Parkway, 94538 Fremont, United States |
| Phone | 510 572 0200 |
| Website | lamresearch.com |
| IPO Date | 11. May 1984 |
| ISIN | US5128073062 |
| Stock Split | 10:1 on 10/03/2024 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Timothy M. Archer | President, CEO & Director | 1967 |
| Douglas R. Bettinger | Executive VP & CFO | 1967 |
| Seshasayee Varadarajan | Executive VP & COO | 1975 |
| Ava A. Harter J.D. | Senior VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 1970 |
| Christina C. Correia | Chief Accounting Officer & Group VP | 1970 |
| Vahid Vahedi Ph.D. | Senior VP, Chief Technology & Sustainability Officer | 1966 |
| Ram Ganesh | Vice President of Investor Relations | – |
| Steve Fine | Group VP & Chief Communication Officer | – |
| Mary Teresa Hassett | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 1974 |
| Karthik Rammohan | Senior Vice President of Global Operations & Enterprise Solutions | – |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13. Jul 2026 | Talwalkar Abhijit Y | Director | Sell | 18,282 | 335.00 | 6,124,470 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.