Kirby Corporation
🔔 Watch stock
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
Why this colour
Quality confirmed: the company is better than its wrong value label — a moat, record profits, iron buyback discipline and a data center tailwind carry the substance; with debt at only 21.4 percent of total capitalization the balance sheet shows no substance risk. Under observation stays the operating side: about 6 percent return on capital, earned on heavy, expensive steel, with utilization and spot rates already giving way. The rating says nothing about the entry price — that is what the metrics scanners answer.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Kirby is the opposite of a warning-signal case — but no value bargain either: a conservatively financed, legally protected market leader in record form whose Greenblatt label rests on a unit outlier in the fundamental data (honest return-on-capital approximation: about 6 instead of the required 25 percent). Freight utilization has been crumbling since the second half of 2025, the fleet is aging while newbuild prices sit near historical highs, and 21 times a record profit already honors the quality. The data center tailwind in the service business is real but carries single-digit margins. Not investment advice.
Market position & moat
Largest U.S. inland tank barge operator (1,105 barges, roughly 28 percent of the fleet), protected by the Jones Act; the industry fleet has stagnated since 2019, on the coast not a single newbuild is on order and Kirby pushed through price increases of 19 to 21 percent there in early 2026 (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
Earnings & balance sheet
Earnings per share nearly tripled since 2022 ($2.03 to $6.33), a 19.3 percent operating marine margin, $670 million in operating cash flow, debt at only 21.4 percent of total capitalization, interest coverage about eleven times — plus consistent buybacks instead of a dividend (since 1989).
Scanner signal & data quality
The Magic Formula hit is a false echo: the equity ratio is stored in the fundamental data too high by a factor of 100 (5,889 instead of roughly 59 percent); in reality the return-on-capital approximation sits at about 6 percent — far below the formula's 25 percent threshold. The remaining six hits are trend/momentum signals, and the fundamental rating (B, 60 of 100) sits in the lower midfield.
Cyclicality & capital intensity
Utilization fell into the 80s range in the second half of 2025, inland spot rates in early 2026 were four to six percent below the prior year; the fleet averages 17.8 years of age, newbuild prices sit near historical highs, and $226.6 of $264.5 million in capital expenditures is pure maintenance (10-K 2025).
Power generation growth story
The power generation business grew 20 and 26 percent in 2024/2025 to 43 percent of the service segment, with large project awards from data center customers — but Kirby is an equipment supplier there with a single-digit segment margin (6.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026), the oil legacy is shrinking at double-digit rates, and in 2024 the shift to electric fracking already cost a $56.3 million inventory write-down.
Worth Noting
The Magic Formula membership rests on a data error (the equity ratio stored too high by a factor of 100 in the fundamental data); the article lays the cross-check open. The scanner row is documented in the screenshot (data as of July 8, 2026, confirmed live on July 14, 2026).
All balance-sheet and earnings figures come from the SEC filings (10-K 2025, filed 17.02.2026; 10-Q as of 31.03.2026, filed 08.05.2026) and are dated in the text; valuation figures carry the data cut-off of July 8, 2026 — analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
Analyst estimates ($7.01 and $8.28 in earnings per share for 2026/2027) are consensus forecasts of five professionals, not facts — with cyclicals, estimates have historically been revised most heavily at turning points.
Kirby reports utilization only as ranges (e.g. "low-90% range"); the wording in the text follows the language of the 10-K/10-Q.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of August 26, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at KEX since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 80.00 $ to 152.60 $ · Last price: 138.40 $ (As of: September 18, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Marine Shipping
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Corporation KEX | 7.4 | 20.9 | 10.8 | 33.2 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 67.5 |
| Matson Inc MATX | 7.0 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 23.0 | 7.8 | -2.3 | 123.3 |
| Hafnia Limited HAFN | 5.1 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 31.9 | 22.3 | -18.1 | 86.2 |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd ZIM | 3.6 | 37.7 | 3.8 | 31.0 | -1.0 | -18.1 | 107.9 |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp SBLK | 3.6 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 47.3 | 39.7 | -17.6 | 75.6 |
| Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. ECO | 3.3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 51.7 | 75.0 | -0.4 | 235.2 |
| Danaos Corporation DAC | 3.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 70.8 | 48.4 | 2.8 | 76.1 |
| Navios Maritime Partners LP NMM | 2.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 90.3 | 34.3 | 0.8 | 89.7 |
| Costamare Inc CMRE | 1.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 69.8 | – | -57.9 | 25.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 3.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 47.3 | 28.3 | -2.3 | 86.2 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,771 | 247 | 141 | 2.64 | 416 | 2,413 | 4,304 |
| 2017 | 2,214 | 94 | 313 | 5.66 | 353 | 3,111 | 5,127 |
| 2018 | 2,971 | 155 | 78 | 1.31 | 347 | 3,213 | 5,872 |
| 2019 | 2,838 | 242 | 142 | 2.38 | 512 | 3,369 | 6,079 |
| 2020 | 2,171 | -421 | -273 | -4.55 | 445 | 3,084 | 5,924 |
| 2021 | 2,247 | -258 | -247 | -4.11 | 322 | 2,886 | 5,399 |
| 2022 | 2,785 | 193 | 122 | 2.03 | 294 | 3,043 | 5,555 |
| 2023 | 3,092 | 335 | 223 | 3.72 | 540 | 3,185 | 5,722 |
| 2024 | 3,266 | 399 | 287 | 4.91 | 756 | 3,352 | 5,852 |
| 2025 | 3,364 | 492 | 355 | 6.33 | 670 | 3,381 | 6,036 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 0.74 | -29.10 | 802 | 0.40 | 5.30 | 247 | 151 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.33 | 11.30 | 786 | -2.80 | 9.70 | 37 | -42 |
| 2025: Q2 | 1.67 | 16.70 | 856 | 3.80 | 11.00 | 94 | 22 |
| 2025: Q3 | 1.65 | 6.90 | 871 | 4.80 | 10.60 | 228 | 160 |
| 2025: Q4 | 1.69 | 128.40 | 844 | 5.20 | 9.60 | 312 | 265 |
| 2026: Q1 | 1.50 | 13.40 | 844 | 7.40 | 9.60 | 98 | 49 |
| 2026: Q2 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 922 | 7.80 | 9.70 | 72 | 72 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 9 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Backtested Scanners
Best Hits
Quality & Balance Sheet
Momentum & Trend
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 7.09 | 6.96 – 7.20 | 3,618 | 12.0% | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 8.34 | 7.62 – 8.70 | 3,865 | 17.6% | 6 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly 4.3% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $475.6M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $7.40B |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $723.6M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 51.5% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 6.5% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Geprüft am 14.07.2026 gegen den Geschäftsbericht (10-K) 2025 (eingereicht 17.02.2026), den 10-K 2024 (18.02.2025) und die vier jüngsten Quartalsberichte (10-Q, zuletzt zum 31.03.2026): In den ausgewerteten SEC-Filings von Kirby findet sich kein wesentlicher KI-Bezug. Die einzige Erwähnung von „artificial intelligence“ ist eine Governance-Notiz im Cybersecurity-Kapitel (Item 1C) beider Geschäftsberichte („The Company has also adopted an Artificial Intelligence Use Policy to mitigate cybersecurity and other risks associated with use of artificial intelligence technology.“) — weder eine KI-Umsatzquelle noch ein belegter operativer KI-Einsatz als Effizienzhebel noch ein konkretes KI-Geschäftsrisiko für das eigene Modell. Kirby profitiert zwar im Segment Distribution & Services vom Rechenzentrums-Boom (Stromerzeugungs-Geschäft 2025 plus 26 Prozent, 43 Prozent des Segmentumsatzes; 10-K 2024 nennt „several large project awards from data center customers“), doch das ist ein KI-nahes Endmarkt-Narrativ — verkauft werden Stromerzeugungs-Anlagen, Motoren und Service, keine KI-Produkte. Nach dem Kriterienkatalog bleibt es damit bei „neutral“ (Endmarkt-Exponierung allein begründet kein „verkauft“; die vier 10-Q enthalten keinerlei KI-Treffer).
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-08 · 10-Q 2025-11-10 · 10-Q 2025-08-11 · 10-Q 2025-05-12 · 10-K 2026-02-17 · 10-K 2025-02-18
Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Earnings calls
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
On the headline numbers Kirby delivers: the 2024 EPS target was beaten, free cash flow of 414 million dollars in 2024 and 406 million in 2025 exceeded the high end of guidance both times, the 20 percent coastal margin goal set in the Q3 2024 call was reached by late 2025, and 2026 EPS guidance was raised in the Q1 2026 call and reaffirmed in the Q2 2026 call. Bad news also came early: management flagged the low end of the 2025 earnings range already in the Q2 2025 call. The key detail promise of this series is a different story: the 200 to 300 basis point inland margin expansion for 2025, confirmed three times, was replaced in the Q2 2025 call by weaker wording without any explicit note, and was never delivered. At the same time the path back to the old cycle peak stretched from 'several more years' (2024-Q3) to a 'good long five-year march' (2026-Q2). We rate the picture as notable: clean execution and open communication on the annual numbers, but a medium-term margin target that quietly left guidance.
2025 inland margin target quietly dropped
In the Q3 2024 call management guided to a 200 to 300 basis point inland margin expansion for 2025, and repeated that figure explicitly in the Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 calls, the latter saying it was reaffirming its margin expansion guidance. In the Q2 2025 call the number disappeared from guidance, replaced by margins simply staying in the low 20 percent range. That is what happened: after roughly 20 percent for full year 2024, 2025 inland margins came in around 20 percent (Q1), low 20s (Q2), high teens (Q3) and low 20s again (Q4), flat rather than 200 to 300 basis points higher. The Q2 2025 call did explain the weaker environment at length in the same breath, citing chemical demand weakness, price moderation and tariff uncertainty, but no call ever explicitly withdrew the figure itself. For 2026 the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 calls set the range at high teens to low 20 percent, below the old target.
Path to peak margins stretched to five years
In the Q3 2024 call the CEO said he would be very disappointed if Kirby did not push through the prior cycle peak of about 27 to 27.5 percent within this cycle, with 'several more years' of cycle left. By the Q2 2026 call that has become a 'good long five-year march up'. An analyst raised the shift directly in the Q2 2026 call, calling it a big change of tone; the CEO answered with 'maybe some conservatism' and gave a concrete reason, the prior year price setback caused by heavy crude no longer reaching Gulf Coast refineries. The reasoning is therefore traceable. It still stands that a target set in 2024 for the current cycle sits several years out again two years later, while inland margins in the Q1 and Q2 2026 calls run in the high teens.
Power generation backlog: no fixed disclosure
From the Q3 2024 call onward analysts repeatedly asked how large the power generation backlog is, and management still declines to name it every quarter. The level of detail has grown, however: 'hundreds of millions of dollars' (2024-Q3 and 2024-Q4), backlog up 15 to 20 percent (2025-Q2), a record level and a range of 0.5 to 1 billion dollars (2025-Q3), up 11 percent sequentially and about 30 percent year over year (2025-Q4), plus an announced upgrade of the range once its top end was passed (2026-Q1). The CEO delivered on that announcement unprompted in the Q2 2026 call, raising the range to 1 to 1.5 billion dollars; book-to-bill has been given as well above 1 since the Q3 2025 call. So investors still get estimated ranges rather than an audited figure, which weighs more now that power generation made up 52 percent of segment revenue in the Q4 2025 call.
2026 inland revenue guidance does not fit first half
The Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 calls both guided 2026 inland revenue growth to the low to mid single digits. The Q2 2026 transcript suddenly shows a range of high teens to 20 percent for the same fiscal year, with no explanation and no analyst follow-up. The numbers do not support the jump: first quarter 2026 inland revenue was flat year over year, second quarter revenue up 9 percent, and coastal and distribution are still guided to mid single digit growth in the same paragraph. We therefore regard a transcription error as the most likely explanation and treat this not as a management statement but as an open data point to be resolved with the next report.
Management promises
- 2024-Q2 — Earnings per share growth at the high end of the original 30 to 40 percent range for full year 2024. Delivered and beaten. Adjusted quarterly results of 1.19, 1.43, 1.55 and 1.29 dollars per share produced what the Q4 2024 call called a record year well above the prior year. kept
- 2024-Q3 — Inland margin expansion of 200 to 300 basis points for full year 2025 versus 2024. Not delivered. After confirmation in the Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 calls, the target was replaced in the Q2 2025 call by wording about staying in the low 20 percent range; actual 2025 margins came in flat versus the prior year. The weaker environment was explained, but the figure itself was never explicitly withdrawn. broken
- 2024-Q3 — Coastal margins up about 300 basis points in 2025 versus 2024 and above the 20 percent mark in this cycle. Delivered. After low teens in 2024, the company reported coastal margins of around 20 percent in the Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 calls. kept
- 2024-Q4 — Earnings per share growth of 15 to 25 percent for full year 2025. Met, if at the bottom, and flagged early. The Q2 2025 call already pointed to the low end, the Q3 2025 call confirmed it by saying results would land around the low end, and the Q4 2025 call still described 2025 as a record year. kept
- 2025-Q3 — Company will consider disclosing power generation backlog and book-to-bill in future. Partly implemented, without a fixed cadence. There is still no regular disclosure through the Q2 2026 call, but book-to-bill has been given as well above 1, growth rates were provided, and the range was raised to 1 to 1.5 billion dollars in the Q2 2026 call unprompted, as announced in the Q1 2026 call. The commitment was explicitly only to consider disclosure, with no date attached. open
- 2025-Q4 — The rate concessions granted to large customers in 2025 will come back in 2026. Unproven. Term renewals came in flat to slightly up in the Q1 2026 call and up in the low single digits in the Q2 2026 call; no catch-up from the concessions is visible in those numbers and neither call returned to the topic. open
- 2026-Q1 — Fuel costs will cost 5 to 10 cents per share in the second quarter of 2026, with recovery in the following quarters. The headwind forecast was accurate and the Q2 2026 call confirmed it. The promised recovery is not yet proven, it is expected mostly in the third quarter of 2026 and can only be checked with the next transcript. open
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q2.
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 6.5%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 6.6%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year -2.4%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 15.1%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 26.3%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 7.3%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1.6 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 1,103 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 9.2%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.8%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
6/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 7.4%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 7.2%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 7.9%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 14.8%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 2.5x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 8
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 12.2%
- ROCE > 15% 9.2%
- Expected return > 10% 21.1%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Husted Amy D. | Exec VP General Counsel & Sec | Other | 74 | 131.10 | 9,701 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Husted Amy D. | Exec VP General Counsel & Sec | Other | 186 | 0.00 | – |
The company
About the Company
Kirby Corporation betreibt Inlandstankschiffe in den USA. Das Segment Marine Transportation bietet Schifftransportdienste und Schleppschiffe zum Transport von Flüssiggütern an und betreibt Tankschiffe auf dem Mississippi-River-System und dem Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.
- CEO Insider Trades (12 Mo.)
- selling own stock
- Employees
- 5,233
- Headquarters
- Houston, TX
- Address
- 55 Waugh Drive, 77007 Houston, United States
- Phone
- 713 435 1000
- Website
- kirbycorp.com
- IPO Date
- 08/21/1991
- ISIN
- US4972661064
- Stock Split
- 2:1 on 06/01/2006
- Stock Split
- 10:1 on 05/12/1981
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David W. Grzebinski C.F.A. | CEO & Director | 1961 |
| Christian G. O'Neil | President & COO | 1973 |
| Raj Kumar | Executive VP & CFO | 1973 |
| Scott P. Miller | VP & Chief Information Officer | 1979 |
| Amy D. Husted J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1969 |
| Ronald A. Dragg | VP, Controller & Assistant Secretary | 1964 |
| William Matthew Woodruff | Vice President of Public & Governmental Affairs | 1962 |
| Jennifer N. McCauley | Chief Human Resources Officer | 1964 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 07/29/2026 KIRBY CORP (KEX): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: September 18, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.