Groupon Inc (GRPN)
🔔 Watch stock
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We found at least one documented issue that threatens the company itself — regardless of how the stock is currently valued.
Whoever buys today bets that North America returns to growth without rising discounts and that the operating profit becomes a net profit before creditor patience or the 2030 maturity puts the equity question back on the table — and pays 19 times free cash flow for it after a 125 percent rally. Whoever waits may miss the next leg, but will see in the coming quarterly reports whether Local revenue and the discount intensity turn in the right direction. The decision is yours.
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Groupon shows up in our Reddit hype scanner — just 4 mentions in 24 hours (as of July 15, 2026), a whisper rather than a storm, but the whisper has a reason: plus 125 percent in three months (data as of July 8, 2026). The deal pioneer, valued at roughly $12.7 billion at its 2011 IPO price, reports its first revenue growth in nine years under its Czech investor-CEO. We read the annual reports (10-K) for 2024 and 2025 and the quarterly report (10-Q) as of March 31, 2026: bookings are growing, but bought with discounts; the net loss widened to $83.5 million, stockholders' equity is negative, and the July 2025 debt exchange cost $99.9 million on paper. Not investment advice — we simply add up the receipt, line by line.
Read the analysis
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at GRPN since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 7 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 27.60 $ — 66% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIDie Berichte belegen operativen und strategischen KI-Einsatz ohne KI-Umsatzquelle: Der Geschäftsbericht 10-K 2025 beschreibt KI-native Erlebnisse mit KI-Agenten als künftigen Entdeckungs- und Transaktionskanal, KI-taugliche Suche und Checkout sowie interne KI-Werkzeuge für Produktivität; KI-Kompetenz („AI fluency“) ist ausdrücklich Leistungskriterium, und im März 2026 richtete der Verwaltungsrat ein eigenes KI-Komitee ein. KI-Produkte als eigene Umsatzquelle nennen die Filings nicht; die KI-Risikohinweise (Wettbewerber mit KI-Werkzeugen, Regulierung, KI-gestützter Betrug) bleiben allgemein und belegen keine konkrete Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We believe the next generation of local commerce will be driven by AI native experiences, for which AI agents will become an important discovery and transaction channel. We are building and beginning to implement modern API architecture, AI-ready search & relevance, AI-ready checkout in addition to internal AI tools to drive productivity and efficiency."
Wir glauben, dass die nächste Generation des lokalen Handels von KI-nativen Erlebnissen getragen wird, für die KI-Agenten ein wichtiger Entdeckungs- und Transaktionskanal werden. Wir bauen eine moderne API-Architektur, KI-taugliche Suche und Relevanz sowie einen KI-tauglichen Checkout auf und beginnen mit deren Einführung — zusätzlich zu internen KI-Werkzeugen zur Steigerung von Produktivität und Effizienz.
„In 2025, Groupon continued to embed AI tools into how our teams operate day-to-day. Our aim is to build an AI-native operating culture at Groupon. As part of the effort, we are including AI fluency as a performance criteria that we used to evaluate manager and individual effectiveness."
2025 hat Groupon weiter KI-Werkzeuge in die tägliche Arbeitsweise unserer Teams eingebettet. Unser Ziel ist es, bei Groupon eine KI-native Arbeitskultur aufzubauen. Als Teil dieser Anstrengung nehmen wir KI-Kompetenz als Leistungskriterium auf, mit dem wir die Wirksamkeit von Führungskräften und einzelnen Mitarbeitern bewerten.
„Contemporaneously with Mr. Shah's appointment, our Board of Directors established an Artificial Intelligence Committee of the Board (the "AI Committee") to provide focused Board-level oversight of the Company's artificial intelligence strategy and related risks and opportunities […]"
Zeitgleich mit der Berufung von Herrn Shah richtete unser Verwaltungsrat ein KI-Komitee des Verwaltungsrats (das „AI Committee“) ein, um eine fokussierte Aufsicht auf Board-Ebene über die KI-Strategie des Unternehmens und die damit verbundenen Risiken und Chancen auszuüben […]
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-05-07 · 10-Q 2025-11-06 · 10-Q 2025-08-06 · 10-Q 2025-05-07 · 10-K 2026-03-10 · 10-K 2025-03-11
Rated on July 15, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth Score
4 of 10 Weak growthTen checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -6.0% failed
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 7.0% failed
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 10.1% failed
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 11.2% failed
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 89.0% passed
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 26.7% failed
- Net debt below twice EBITDA failed
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 240 m passed
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 4.5% passed
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 20.3% passed
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 4.6% below the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 4
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | -0.13 | -0.20 – -0.06 | 520 | 318.7% | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 0.83 | 0.54 – 0.98 | 556 | 50.0% | 3 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- -0.08 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
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· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -1.20 | -261.70 | 130 | -5.30 | -38.80 | 67 | 63 |
| 2025: Q1 | 0.17 | – | 117 | -4.80 | 6.10 | 0 | -4 |
| 2025: Q2 | 0.40 | – | 126 | 0.90 | 16.20 | 28 | 25 |
| 2025: Q3 | -2.92 | -1,042.70 | 123 | 7.30 | -96.40 | -21 | -25 |
| 2025: Q4 | 0.18 | – | 133 | 1.80 | 5.50 | 57 | 53 |
| 2026: Q1 | -0.32 | -284.50 | 117 | 0.00 | -11.00 | -10 | -14 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,143 | -110 | -195 | -6.75 | 117 | 265 | 1,761 |
| 2017 | 2,844 | 29 | 14 | 0.49 | 135 | 252 | 1,678 |
| 2018 | 2,637 | 54 | -11 | -0.39 | 191 | 383 | 1,642 |
| 2019 | 2,219 | 40 | -22 | -0.79 | 71 | 394 | 1,587 |
| 2020 | 1,417 | -277 | -288 | -10.07 | -64 | 108 | 1,412 |
| 2021 | 967 | -5 | 119 | 3.54 | -124 | 210 | 1,158 |
| 2022 | 599 | -168 | -238 | -7.88 | -136 | 8 | 793 |
| 2023 | 515 | -18 | -55 | -1.77 | -78 | -41 | 571 |
| 2024 | 493 | 9 | -59 | -1.51 | 56 | 41 | 613 |
| 2025 | 498 | 13 | -84 | -2.07 | 65 | -43 | 670 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
After eight years of continuous shrinkage, the new leadership delivers proof: the first revenue increase since 2016 (+1.2 percent to $498.4 million), gross billings +6.9 percent, 16.2 million active customers (+5.2 percent), operating income of $23.6 million, free cash flow of $49.9 million (annual report 10-K for 2025).
The growth is discount-financed: promotional discounts and higher redemption rates squeeze the commission, revenue grows only one-sixth as fast as billings; the net loss widened for the third year in a row to $83.5 million, and in the first quarter of 2026 North America Local revenue turned negative despite higher discounts (−0.5 percent; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
Stockholders' equity of minus $42.6 million (12/31/2025) and minus $62.6 million (03/31/2026) on an accumulated deficit of $1,592.4 million; an Altman Z-score of minus 6.97, Piotroski 3 of 9, hits in the going-concern distress proxy and the Altman-Z distress zone (data as of July 8, 2026). From here, losses effectively draw on the creditors' side.
$296.1 million of cash (12/31/2025) and positive free cash flow stand against roughly $291 million of note principal; the 2026 notes were repaid in cash in March 2026, and nothing comes due before 2027. But the time gained was expensive: $224.1 million of new 2030 notes for $150.0 million of old 2027 notes, a booked loss of $99.9 million (10-K 2025, Note 8).
An enterprise value around 19 times free cash flow, P/S 1.75, no P/E; plus 125 percent in three months and five momentum-scanner hits against stage 3 (distribution phase) and minus 50 percent over twelve months. The SumUp stake (carrying value $74.8 million) is a quiet reserve of almost one-twelfth of the market value (data as of July 8, 2026).
Groupon is no longer a demolition site, but not yet a self-supporting business either: the new leadership around Pale Fire Capital has brought customers, bookings and even revenue back into positive territory and filled the till to $296.1 million (12/31/2025). Yet the growth is bought with discounts, the net loss widened to $83.5 million, stockholders' equity is negative, and the creditors charged a roughly 49 percent principal premium for the maturity extension — a $99.9 million booked loss. After plus 125 percent in three months, the price already reflects part of a turn that the coming quarters still have to prove. Not investment advice.
- GRPN reached our research list via the Reddit hype scanner (ApeWisdom, 4 mentions in 24 hours, as of July 15, 2026) — a deliberately small attention wave; snapshots like this are no verdict on quality. The 9 hits in our in-house stock scanner carry the July 8, 2026 data cut-off and shift daily.
- Scanner metrics (Altman Z, Piotroski, interest coverage, price/FCF) are computed on trailing twelve-month numbers; the July 2025 debt-swap loss ($99.9 million) distorts them downward into mid-2026 — and the Altman Z-score punishes negative equity harshly by construction.
- Price and valuation figures are dated July 8, 2026 (about $22.90, about $0.87 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
About the Company
Groupon, Inc. betreibt einen Marktplatz, der Verbraucher mit Händlern verbindet, indem er Waren und Dienstleistungen mit Rabatt in Nordamerika und international anbietet.
| Employees | 1,734 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Chicago, IL |
| Address | 35 West Wacker Drive, 60601 Chicago, United States |
| Phone | 773 945 6801 |
| Website | groupon.com |
| IPO Date | 4. Nov 2011 |
| ISIN | US3994732069 |
| Stock Split | 1:20 on 06/11/2020 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Dusan Senkypl | CEO & Director | 1976 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28. Jul 2026 | Shah Amit | Director | Other | 3,348 | 0.00 | – |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.