Emergent Biosolutions Inc
Assessment
Our Rating
A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.
The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.
Why this colour
Yellow, because a material operating question is open: whether the government business can make up for NARCAN’s decline is unproven — results hinge on the irregular orders of a single government, and much of the 2025 profit came from one-time items. We considered red and rejected it: stockholders’ equity is positive ($341.4 million on June 30, 2026), operating cash flow was positive in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, the loan covenants were met, and 2026 interest expense of about $40 million (an assumption in the August 5, 2026, outlook) is covered by the expected adjusted EBITDA of $130 million to $150 million — although after capital spending of about $17 million and taxes, the cushion is considerably thinner. The 2028 notes are the test: if the government business stays weak and NARCAN keeps falling, the open question becomes a threat to the company itself. Whether $7.24 per share (October 5, 2026) is a reasonable price for these uncertainties is not what this rating answers. The decision is yours.
What the thesis turns on
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Emergent BioSolutions consists of two businesses heading in opposite directions: vaccines and countermeasures for governments are growing, while the NARCAN nasal spray is shrinking under free competition and cost a $191.3 million write-down in the second quarter of 2026. The 2026 outlook was cut, the third quarter is guided at half of last year’s revenue, and the notes, most recently $439.7 million, come due in August 2028. Not investment advice.
Government business (MCM)
Smallpox, anthrax and botulism countermeasures with few competitors; first-half 2026 revenue up 25% to $269.8M, $168.0M in the second quarter; new CYFENDUS order worth about $24M (09/01/2026).
NARCAN
2025 revenue down 43% to $226.1M, second-quarter 2026 gross margin 13% (prior year 32%), $191.3M write-down; Teva gives naloxone to states for free for 10 to 15 years.
Earnings quality
Much of the 2025 profit ($52.6M) came from milestone payments ($50.0M) and the Bayview plant sale; the strong Q2 2026 included pulled-forward government orders, and Q3 2026 revenue is guided at $110–130M (prior year $231.1M).
Balance sheet and debt
Debt cut from $700.0M to $589.7M (06/30/2025 to 06/30/2026), another $75M of notes repurchased in Q3; but the notes are due in August 2028 and tied to the term loan’s maturity, with a leverage covenant from Q3 2026.
Valuation
About $371M market value (about 0.5x revenue) and about $821M enterprise value (about 5.9x guided adjusted EBITDA) as of 10/05/2026, slightly above book value of $6.66 per share.
Worth Noting
Edition of October 6, 2026, based on the quarterly report on Form 10-Q of August 6, 2026 (latest periodic report), the earnings release and the restructuring Form 8-K of August 5, 2026, the annual reports on Form 10-K for 2025 and 2024, the 10-Q for the third quarter of 2025 and all filings through October 5, 2026 (Forms 8-K of September 1 and 14, 2026, Schedule 13G, Form 3, Form 144, Form 4). The trigger was our in-house Reddit hype scanner in early October 2026.
Revenue and net income 2019 to 2025 from SEC XBRL data; the $75 million note repurchase in the third quarter of 2026 comes from the conference presentation of September 14, 2026 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1); the remaining balance and the price paid will only be reported in the next quarterly report.
The price anchor is the October 5, 2026, close of $7.24 (source: fundamental data). Market value is our own calculation (51.27 million shares × $7.24); cross-checked against the sale price in the Form 4 filing of October 5, 2026 (sale on October 1, 2026, at an average of $6.53). Enterprise value = market value plus net debt as of June 30, 2026 ($450.0 million), our calculation.
Stock Watch
This analysis is as of October 6, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at EBS since then.
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Price history
Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
52-week range: 4.50 $ to 13.90 $ · Last price: 6.80 $ (As of: October 30, 2026)
Key figures
Key figures at a glance
Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 10/30/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
This stock currently pays no dividend.
Quality & Screener
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Comparison
Industry comparison
The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.
Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
| Company | Market cap ($B) | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross Margin % | EBIT Margin % | Sales Growth (Year) % | Perf. 1Y % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergent Biosolutions Inc EBS | 0.3 | – | 5.2 | 50.4 | – | -28.8 | -23.2 |
| Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd TAK | 66.7 | – | 24.9 | 64.5 | 16.5 | 4.3 | 64.2 |
| Teva Pharma Industries Ltd TEVA | 49.0 | 70.1 | 19.1 | 52.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 110.1 |
| Zoetis Inc ZTS | 33.6 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 71.7 | 36.6 | 2.3 | -43.2 |
| United Therapeutics Corporation UTHR | 25.4 | 21.3 | 13.3 | 86.1 | 41.7 | 10.6 | 32.0 |
| Viatris Inc VTRS | 21.6 | – | 12.5 | 40.3 | 6.8 | -3.0 | 90.3 |
| Neurocrine Biosciences Inc NBIX | 14.7 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 64.5 | 22.8 | 21.5 | 5.8 |
| Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd RDY | 11.8 | 33.7 | 18.1 | 49.5 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 6.6 |
| Elanco Animal Health ELAN | 11.5 | – | 18.9 | 55.4 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.9 |
| Median of companies shown | 21.6 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 55.4 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 6.6 |
Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →
Fiscal years
Annual Figures
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M
Revenue Operating income Net income
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 489 | 106 | 52 | 1.05 | 53 | 596 | 970 |
| 2017 | 561 | 124 | 83 | 1.64 | 208 | 912 | 1,070 |
| 2018 | 782 | 90 | 63 | 1.22 | 42 | 1,011 | 2,229 |
| 2019 | 1,106 | 114 | 55 | 1.04 | 188 | 1,089 | 2,327 |
| 2020 | 1,577 | 439 | 306 | 5.68 | 537 | 1,447 | 2,883 |
| 2021 | 1,774 | 341 | 220 | 4.06 | 321 | 1,612 | 2,958 |
| 2022 | 1,118 | -170 | -212 | -4.22 | -34 | 1,388 | 3,166 |
| 2023 | 1,049 | -726 | -761 | -14.85 | -206 | 649 | 1,823 |
| 2024 | 1,044 | -109 | -191 | -3.60 | 59 | 483 | 1,390 |
| 2025 | 743 | 110 | 53 | 0.93 | 171 | 523 | 1,319 |
Quarters
Quarterly Figures
Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.
None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.
· Total · per year
These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.
The figures could not be loaded right now.
Source: fundamental data
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | -0.58 | – | 195 | -29.60 | -16.10 | -80 | -82 |
| 2025: Q1 | 1.19 | 588.30 | 222 | -26.00 | 30.60 | -11 | -15 |
| 2025: Q2 | -0.22 | – | 141 | -44.70 | -8.50 | 106 | 104 |
| 2025: Q3 | 0.91 | -56.10 | 231 | -21.30 | 22.20 | -2 | -6 |
| 2025: Q4 | -0.96 | – | 149 | -23.60 | -36.70 | 78 | 74 |
| 2026: Q1 | 0.07 | -94.10 | 156 | -29.70 | 4.40 | -34 | -36 |
| 2026: Q2 | -3.49 | -1,486.40 | 234 | 66.30 | -76.90 | 56 | 54 |
What Do These Terms Mean?
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Screening
Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 8 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Quality & Balance Sheet
Breakout & Setup
Momentum & Trend
Research
Risk & Weakness
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. Scanners marked in red are red-flag signals (risk/short scanners) — appearing there is not a seal of approval. View all scanners
Outlook
Analysts & Price Target
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Distribution of Recommendations
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 0.36 | 0.36 – 0.36 | 657 | -76.5% | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1.05 | 1.05 – 1.05 | 703 | 191.0% | 1 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Valuation
What is priced in?
Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.
Today’s market value implies roughly -15.6% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).
| Free cash flow (last twelve months) | $85.9M |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $346.0M |
| Free cash flow in year ten | $15.7M |
| Terminal value as a share of market value | 24.0% |
For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow shrank by 16.9% per year.
It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.
A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.
AI classification
AI Rating
Emergent BioSolutions verdient sein Geld mit Impfstoffen und Gegenmitteln gegen Bioterror-Erreger (Milzbrand, Pocken, Botulismus), die überwiegend die US-Regierung kauft, und mit dem Nasenspray NARCAN gegen Opioid-Überdosen; künstliche Intelligenz ist weder Produkt noch Umsatzquelle. In den sechs ausgewerteten Pflichtberichten (Geschäftsberichte 10-K 2025 und 2024, Quartalsberichte 10-Q vom 07.08.2025, 30.10.2025, 01.05.2026 und 06.08.2026) gibt es genau eine KI-Fundstelle: Der Geschäftsbericht 2025 nennt den eigenen KI-Einsatz „begrenzt und in einem frühen Stadium“ — im Zusammenhang mit Datenschutzgesetzen, nicht als Geschäftsrisiko und ohne belegten operativen Einsatz. Für „nutzt KI“ fehlt damit ein zweiter Beleg, für „bedroht“ ein konkreter Bezug zum Geschäftsmodell. Negativ-Befund dokumentiert — nach dem Kriterienkatalog „neutral“.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„While our use of AI remains limited and in early stages, some state privacy laws include requirements governing profiling, risk assessments, and transparency related to automated data decision making."
Auch wenn unser Einsatz von KI begrenzt bleibt und sich in einem frühen Stadium befindet, enthalten einige Datenschutzgesetze der Bundesstaaten Vorgaben zu Profiling, Risikobewertungen und Transparenz bei automatisierten Datenentscheidungen.
10-K · 2026-02-27 · View SEC filing
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-08-06 · 10-Q 2026-05-01 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-K 2026-02-27 · 10-K 2025-03-04
Rated on October 6, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
Growth
Growth Score
Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.
- Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years -12.7%
- More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 21.7%
- Share count grows by less than 3% a year 4.2%
- Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") -7.7%
- Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 47.2%
- Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 0.0%
- Net debt below twice EBITDA 1.5 x EBITDA
- Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years 922 m
- Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 9.3%
- Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 3.9%
A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail
Quality check
AAQS
4/10The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).
- Sales growth 10Y > 5% 4.8%
- Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% -2.7%
- EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 0.5%
- Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 6.2%
- Net debt < 4x EBIT 3.3x
- EBIT positive, 10Y straight 7
- Max. EBIT decline < 50% 100.0%
- Return on equity > 15% 61.1%
- ROCE > 15% 9.3%
- Expected return > 10% 54.3%
View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien
Source: fundamental data
Insiders
Insider Transactions
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | DeGolyer Donald W | Director | Sell | 17,800 | 7.09 | 126,202 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Williams Paul Anthony | SVP, Products Business | Sell | 3,000 | 6.53 | 19,590 |
The company
About the Company
Emergent BioSolutions Inc., ein Life-Sciences-Unternehmen, bietet Lösungen zur Vorsorge und Reaktion auf versehentliche, vorsätzliche und natürlich auftretende Bedrohungen der öffentlichen Gesundheit in den USA, Kanada und international an.
- Employees
- 900
- Headquarters
- Gaithersburg, MD
- Address
- 300 Professional Drive, 20879 Gaithersburg, United States
- Phone
- 240 631 3200
- Website
- emergentbiosolutions.com
- IPO Date
- 11/15/2006
- ISIN
- US29089Q1058
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph C. Papa Jr., M.B.A., R.Ph. | CEO, President & Director | 1956 |
| Coleen Glessner | Executive Vice President of Quality, Ethics & Compliance | 1971 |
| Paul A. Williams | Senior Vice President of Products Business | 1967 |
| Jessica Perl | Senior VP, Corporate Secretary & General Counsel | 1981 |
| Assal Hellmer | Vice President of Communications | – |
| Michelle Pepin | Senior VP & Chief Human Resource Officer | – |
| Stephanie Duatschek | Executive VP & Chief Growth Officer | – |
| William Hartzel | Senior Vice President of Manufacturing & Bioservices | 1978 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Filings
Company Filings (8-K)
An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- 10/16/2026 Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS): Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 09/14/2026 Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS): Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 09/01/2026 Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS): Other Events; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
- 08/05/2026 Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Cost Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities; Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers: Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers; Regulation FD Disclosure; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗
Data as of: October 30, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.