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Buy Day today: Good (62) Broad market participation · no major macro event
LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · listed since 1978

1,152.40$ +1.3% vs. previous close Closing price · As of: Sep 17, 2026
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Assessment

Our Rating

A journalistic assessment by our editorial team at the time of the deep dive — it rates the company, not the entry point. Not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Open questions promises largely kept

The business works in principle, but one material question is open. As long as it stays open, our findings do not carry a quality verdict.

Why this colour

The business model and balance sheet are fundamentally healthy — growth, margins and cash flow rank among the best in the entire pharma industry, and equity keeps growing despite the recent acquisition wave. The rating still sits at yellow because one material operating question remains open: about 65 percent of revenue hangs on a single compound whose prices increasingly come into being at the negotiating table with the government — not a solvency risk, but a concentration that makes every piece of bad news about this one molecule disproportionately heavy. This is a quality judgment about the company, not a statement about entry timing or the currently very athletic price of the stock.

What the thesis turns on

Assessment: Opportunities & Risks

Eli Lilly is the rare case in which the halo effect is almost right: the best growth in big pharma, outstanding margins, a delivering pipeline and balance-sheet grades straight from the textbook. But the trillion-dollar valuation prices in a decade of continued success — and the company's own mandatory filings plus five reviewed analyst earnings calls document the same structural dents as before, with a new one added: 65 percent of revenue still hangs on a single molecule, the government sets prices and management now itself confirms falling net prices, and an acquisition wave pushed debt up 29 percent within six months. Quality is not the question here; the price of that quality is. Not investment advice.

Growth & pipeline

Revenue plus 48 percent in Q2 2026, plus 51 percent for the first half — the fastest growth in big pharma continues. The pipeline delivers: Foundayo (the first weight-loss pill) generated $98 million in revenue in its debut quarter, retatrutide has the complete data package for approval in early 2027 after three more Phase 3 successes (earnings release August 5, 2026).

Earning power & balance-sheet quality

86 percent gross margin in Q2 2026 (higher than in record-year 2025), Piotroski 8 of 9, Altman-Z about 7.3, fundamental rating A — the value-scanner hit rests on real earning power, and equity grew from $26.5 to $33.9 billion within six months (data as of July 8, 2026 resp. 10-Q as of 06/30/2026).

Concentration on one molecule

Mounjaro and Zepbound are the same compound (tirzepatide) and stood for about 65 percent of revenue in Q2 2026, unchanged — stable at a high level since the start of the year. The company's own risk factor warns of "significant and sudden" stock-price declines on bad news about these products (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of 06/30/2026).

Price regulation & patent protections

Government-set prices hit Jardiance since 2026 (minus 66 percent), Trulicity and Verzenio from 2028 — more products expected per Lilly. On the analyst calls, management confirmed falling Zepbound net prices from the fourth quarter of 2026; the retatrutide classification (biologic vs. small molecule, and thus its exclusivity length) is, per management, "active litigation" with an unresolved outcome.

Valuation & debt

About $1,035 billion in market value, P/E about 45, P/B about 31 (data as of September 2, 2026) — on Lilly's own 2026 guidance the P/E falls to about 32. An acquisition wave (Orna, Ajax, Centessa, Kelonia; AtaiBeckley announced) pushed total debt up 29 percent to $54.9 billion within six months; the dividend (yield ~0.6 percent) and buybacks continue in parallel.

Worth Noting

Price and valuation figures dated September 2, 2026 (about $1,160 per share, about $1,035 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.

The Q2 2026 figures ($23.0 billion in revenue, $7.1 billion in net income) are three-month values; growth rates refer to the prior-year quarter. Q2 2026 U.S. revenue also contains a favorable one-off effect from adjusted rebate estimates that management does not expect to repeat in the second half (earnings release August 5, 2026).

The 2026 full-year guidance ($35.50 to $36.50 in adjusted earnings per share) is a company figure, not an independent forecast — analyst estimates (31 professionals, consensus mostly "buy") are additionally forecasts, not facts, and especially prone to revision given politically negotiated prices.

Scanner membership: local evaluation with data as of July 8, 2026 (Greenblatt, Levermann, Zweig, EBIT-margin ranking, Altman-Z); checked live on July 14, 2026 — not re-verified since.

The findings from the analyst earnings calls (chapter "What the analyst calls reveal") rest on five transcripts from Q2 2025 through Q2 2026 and are management statements, not audited facts.

Read the Full Deep Dive Eli Lilly Stock: One Trillion Dollars, One Molecule — and the Government Now Sits at the Table Eli Lilly remains the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world: in the second quarter of 2026, revenue grew 48 percent to $23.0 billion, and 51 percent for the first half — Lilly raised its full-year guidance to as much as $87 billion. It is still carried by a single compound: tirzepatide (Mounjaro plus Zepbound) accounts for about 65 percent of revenue. New since our last analysis: an acquisition wave of four closed and at least one announced deal that pushed total debt up 29 percent to $54.9 billion within six months — and a look into five analyst earnings calls that shows where management promises held and where they did not. We read the latest quarterly report (10-Q as of 06/30/2026) and the accompanying earnings release. Not investment advice — just a look at how much weight a single domino can carry. Read the analysis →

Stock Watch

This analysis is as of September 3, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at LLY since then.

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Price history

Chart

Interactive price chart (TradingView).

52-week range: 714.60 $ to 1,280.30 $ · Last price: 1,152.40 $ (As of: September 17, 2026)

Key figures

Key figures at a glance

Every figure we hold for this stock, grouped by topic. The question mark next to a label explains what the number means.

Basics

Market Cap ?The value of the entire company on the market: share price times total shares outstanding. 1,027.6$B
Shares Outstanding ?Total number of shares issued. Price times share count gives market cap. 892m
Float ?Share of stock freely tradable on the market — not locked up in the hands of founders, insiders, or major shareholders. 99.7%
Beta ?Volatility versus the overall market: 1 = moves like the market, 2 = twice as much, under 1 = calmer than the market. 0.5

Performance

Perf. 1M ?Price performance over the last month. 9.20%
Perf. 3M ?Price performance over the last 3 months. 40.30%
Perf. 6M ?Price performance over the last 6 months. 14.60%
YTD Performance (%) ?Price performance since the start of the year (Year to Date). 3.40%
52-Week-High Distance ?How far the price sits below its highest point over the last 52 weeks. 0% means the stock is at its year high. -4.7%
Perf. 1Y ?Price performance over the last 12 months. 52.57%
Perf. 3Y ?Price performance over the last 3 years. 104.36%
Perf. 5Y ?Price performance over the last 5 years. 424.02%
Perf. 10Y ?Price performance over the last 10 years. 1,609.90%
Perf. Since Inception ?Price performance since the first available trading day (06/01/1972) — with a complete history, that is since the IPO. 129,184.27%

Technical Indicators

MA 38 Days ?Moving average of the last 38 trading days: the smoothed price path. A price above it signals short-term strength. 1,179.50$
MA 50 Days ?Moving average of the last 50 trading days — the most widely watched medium-term trend line. 1,178.60$
MA 200 Days ?Moving average of the last 200 trading days — the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. 1,065.90$
RSI (14) ?Relative Strength Index over 14 days, scale 0 to 100: above 70 counts as overbought, below 30 as oversold. A hint on timing, not a verdict on the company. 47.1
Volatility 30 Days ?Price swings over the last 30 trading days, annualized. The higher the value, the more the price fluctuates. 29.1%
Volatility 250 Days ?Price swings over the last 250 trading days (roughly one market year), annualized. 35.5%

Calculated from the price history · as of 09/18/2026

Valuation

P/E ?Price-to-earnings ratio: how many years of profit does the stock cost? The lower, the cheaper the valuation. No earnings means no P/E. 44.4
Forward P/E ?P/E based on expected earnings for the next 12 months instead of past earnings — analysts' bet on the future. 23.6
PEG ?P/E divided by expected earnings growth: puts valuation in relation to growth. Around 1 is considered fair, well above that is pricey. 1.1
P/B ?Price-to-book ratio: market value relative to book equity. 33.3
P/S ?Price-to-sales ratio: market value divided by annual sales. Important for companies that aren't (yet) profitable. 12.9
EV/EBITDA ?Enterprise value including debt (EV) relative to operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) — more comparable than P/E because debt counts too. Extreme values arise when EBITDA is near zero. 24.9
Price/FCF ?Market value divided by free cash flow: how many years of freely available cash does the stock cost? More honest than P/E because cash flow is harder to dress up. 44.7

Profitability

Gross Margin ?Gross margin: what's left of sales after only direct production costs are deducted — the product's pricing power. 83.4%
EBIT Margin ?EBIT margin: operating profit as a percentage of sales — the earning power of the core business before interest and taxes. 49.4%
Net Margin ?Net margin: what's left of sales as profit after ALL costs, interest, and taxes. 33.5%
Return on Equity ?Return on equity: how much profit does the company generate per year on shareholders' equity? 107.5%
Return on Assets ?Return on assets: how much profit the company generates from its total assets (equity and debt combined). 20.4%

Balance Sheet & Safety

Equity Ratio ?Equity ratio: equity as a share of total assets. The higher, the more resilient the balance sheet. 26.8%
Debt/Equity ?Leverage ratio: financial debt divided by equity. Under 1 is generally seen as solid; negative values mean negative equity. 1.7
Altman Z″ ?Edward Altman's bankruptcy early-warning score. We use the Z″ variant, built from four balance-sheet ratios — it is designed for service companies and non-manufacturers and uses book value instead of market value. On that scale: below 1.1 = danger zone, 2.6 and up = safe zone, in between a grey area. Because the classic Altman Z is calculated differently, the two numbers are not directly comparable. The formula does not fit banks, insurers, or real-estate stocks. fortress balance sheet 7.32
Piotroski ?Balance-sheet health check by Joseph Piotroski: 9 yes/no criteria on profit, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. 7+ is very solid, under 3 is a red flag. very solid 8 out of 9

Growth

Sales Growth Last Quarter ?Sales growth in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 55.50%
EPS Growth Last Quarter ?Growth in earnings per share in the most recently reported quarter versus the same quarter a year ago (YoY). 169.90%
Sales Growth (Year) ?Sales growth in the last fiscal year versus the year before. 44.70%
Forward Sales Growth ?Sales growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 15.32%
Forward EPS Growth ?Earnings-per-share growth analysts expect over the next 12 months — an estimate, not a guarantee. 22.80%

Dividend

Dividend Yield ?Annual dividend divided by the current price: what percentage of your investment comes back as a payout each year. 0.62%
Dividend Per Share (TTM) ?Sum of dividends paid per share over the last 12 months. 6.69$
Payout Ratio ?Share of profit paid out as dividends. Over 100% means the company is paying out more than it earns — not sustainable long-term. 21.2%
Years Without a Cut ?How many years in a row the dividend hasn't been cut — a measure of reliability. 53Years
Increase Streak ?How many years in a row the dividend has been raised — the gold standard for dividend payers. 11Years

Quality & Screener

Stage ?Weinstein phases 1 through 4: 1 = basing, 2 = uptrend (the only buy phase), 3 = topping, 4 = downtrend. Measured against the 30-week line. 2
RS Rating ?Relative strength from 1 to 99: an RS of 95 means the stock has outperformed 95% of all stocks. 72
EPS Rating ?Earnings growth rating from 1 to 99 versus all stocks — high values mean above-average earnings growth. 89
Fundamental Rating ?Our own Fundamental Rating: 0 to 100 points with an A+ to F grade. 50 points is the average across the universe, 100 the best possible score. It scores growth, earnings surprises, analyst estimates, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet safety — every stock percentile-ranked against all others. Grades: A+ from 95, A from 75, B from 55, C from 45, D from 25, E from 5, F below. A (81 out of 100)

Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.

Comparison

Industry comparison

The stock alongside the largest companies in the same group. The median row is the middle value of the companies shown above — not of the whole industry.

Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General

Industry comparison
Company Market cap ($B) P/E EV/EBITDA Gross Margin % EBIT Margin % Sales Growth (Year) % Perf. 1Y %
Eli Lilly and Company LLY 1,027.6 44.4 24.9 83.4 49.4 44.7 52.6
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 629.2 33.1 19.7 68.1 27.4 6.1 56.0
AbbVie Inc ABBV 460.3 137.7 26.6 72.8 32.2 8.6 23.3
Merck & Company Inc MRK 351.0 43.5 27.9 75.9 38.6 1.2 86.7
Amgen Inc AMGN 203.6 27.0 14.0 71.9 33.8 9.9 42.1
Novo Nordisk A/S NVO 187.9 10.6 9.7 82.0 42.5 6.4 -23.4
Gilead Sciences Inc GILD 187.1 21.1 111.6 79.6 39.3 2.4 37.7
Pfizer Inc PFE 162.4 22.2 15.5 74.7 31.6 -1.7 23.0
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY 129.7 17.9 9.8 71.7 33.0 -0.2 42.7
Median of companies shown 203.6 27.0 19.7 74.7 33.8 6.1 42.1

Based on the most recently reported figures. Only stocks from the same trading venue are lined up, so the market caps are counted in one currency. Compare in a chart →

Fiscal years

Annual Figures

Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.

Revenue, operating income and net income per fiscal year $M

Revenue Operating income Net income

2016 · Revenue: 21,222 $M 2016 · Operating income: 3,871 $M 2016 · Net income: 2,738 $M 2017 · Revenue: 19,974 $M 2017 · Operating income: 4,250 $M 2017 · Net income: -204 $M 2018 · Revenue: 21,493 $M 2018 · Operating income: 6,026 $M 2018 · Net income: 3,232 $M 2019 · Revenue: 22,320 $M 2019 · Operating income: 5,999 $M 2019 · Net income: 8,318 $M 2020 · Revenue: 24,540 $M 2020 · Operating income: 7,211 $M 2020 · Net income: 6,194 $M 2021 · Revenue: 28,318 $M 2021 · Operating income: 7,933 $M 2021 · Net income: 5,582 $M 2022 · Revenue: 28,541 $M 2022 · Operating income: 8,653 $M 2022 · Net income: 6,245 $M 2023 · Revenue: 34,124 $M 2023 · Operating income: 10,787 $M 2023 · Net income: 5,240 $M 2024 · Revenue: 45,043 $M 2024 · Operating income: 17,502 $M 2024 · Net income: 10,590 $M 2025 · Revenue: 65,179 $M 2025 · Operating income: 29,696 $M 2025 · Net income: 20,638 $M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Annual Figures
Fiscal Year Revenue ($M) EBIT ($M) Net Income ($M) EPS ($) Operating Cash Flow ($M) Equity ($M) Total Assets ($M)
2016 21,222 3,871 2,738 2.49 4,851 14,008 38,806
2017 19,974 4,250 -204 -0.19 5,616 11,592 44,981
2018 21,493 6,026 3,232 3.13 5,525 10,909 43,908
2019 22,320 5,999 8,318 8.69 4,837 2,607 39,286
2020 24,540 7,211 6,194 6.47 6,500 5,642 46,633
2021 28,318 7,933 5,582 5.85 7,261 8,979 48,806
2022 28,541 8,653 6,245 6.57 7,084 10,650 49,490
2023 34,124 10,787 5,240 5.80 4,240 10,772 64,006
2024 45,043 17,502 10,590 11.71 8,818 14,192 78,715
2025 65,179 29,696 20,638 22.98 16,813 26,535 112,476

Quarters

Quarterly Figures

Each bar is one quarter, the last one is the most recent. Use the switch to step through the individual figures.

Revenue & Profit

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Margins

Per Share

Click the chart or tab into it, then use ← and → to step through the periods.

None of the selected stocks reports this metric. Pick another metric or switch between annual and quarterly.

These companies report in different currencies — switch on “Indexed” or pick a margin for a fair comparison.

The figures could not be loaded right now.

Sales Per Quarter ($M)
2024: Q4 · 13,532.8 $M Q4 2025: Q1 · 12,728.5 $M Q1 2025: Q2 · 15,557.7 $M Q2 2025: Q3 · 17,600.8 $M Q3 2025: Q4 · 19,292.0 $M Q4 2026: Q1 · 19,799.0 $M Q1 2026: Q2 · 22,974.0 $M Q2

Source: fundamental data

Quarterly Figures
Quarter EPS (Earnings Per Share) EPS YoY (%) Sales ($M) Sales YoY (%) Net Margin (%) OCF ($M) FCF ($M)
2024: Q4 4.88 101.60 13,533 44.70 32.60 2,474 727
2025: Q1 3.06 23.50 12,729 45.20 21.70 1,666 -1,601
2025: Q2 6.29 91.70 15,558 37.60 36.40 3,087 1,283
2025: Q3 6.21 479.30 17,601 53.90 31.70 8,836 8,612
2025: Q4 7.39 51.30 19,292 42.60 34.40 3,225 678
2026: Q1 8.26 169.40 19,799 55.50 37.40 5,333 3,007
2026: Q2 7.94 26.20 22,974 47.70 30.90 10,690 10,690

What Do These Terms Mean?

EPS (Earnings Per Share):
Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
YoY (Year over Year):
Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
Sales:
All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
Net Margin:
What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
FCF (Free Cash Flow):
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.

Compare with other stocks →

Screening

Appears in These Scanners

This stock currently matches 9 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.

Backtested Scanners

Growth

Quality & Balance Sheet

Aktien.Guide

Dividends

Research

Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners

Outlook

Analysts & Price Target

Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.

Consensus Sell 1 = Strong buy … 5 = Strong sell
Analyst Ratings 31
Price Target (average) 1,318.66$
Distance to price 14.4% The price target sits 14.4% above the current price.

Distribution of Recommendations

Strong Buy 18
Buy 6
Hold 5
Sell 1
Strong Sell 1

Estimates by Fiscal Year

Estimates by Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year EPS Estimate ($) EPS Range ($) Revenue Estimate ($M) Expected Growth Analysts
12/31/2026 36.71 32.53 – 40.77 88,173 51.6% 27
12/31/2027 47.24 40.40 – 54.94 101,753 28.7% 27

Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.

Valuation

What is priced in?

Instead of guessing what the stock is worth, we turn the question around: what free cash flow growth has to happen for today’s market value to add up? The assumptions behind it can be moved.

Today’s market value implies roughly 20.5% growth in free cash flow per year over ten years (assumptions: discount rate 10.0%, terminal growth 2.5%).

What is priced in?
Free cash flow (last twelve months) $20.05B
Market cap $1.03T
Free cash flow in year ten $129.88B
Terminal value as a share of market value 66.6%

For comparison: over the past five years free cash flow grew by 15.0% per year.

It shows which assumption is built into today’s price, not whether that assumption will hold. Every assumption can be changed with the sliders; the figures move with them.

A simplified model calculation — not a forecast and not a recommendation.

AI classification

AI Rating

Uses AI

Eli Lilly setzt KI nach eigenen SEC-Angaben operativ in vielen Unternehmensbereichen ein und ist Partnerschaften zur KI-gestützten Wirkstoffforschung eingegangen; zudem hat der Konzern die Beziehungen zu KI-Anbietern ausgeweitet und berichtet über erhebliche eigene KI-Investitionen. KI-Produkte oder -Dienste sind aber keine Umsatzquelle — die Erlöse stammen aus Arzneimitteln —, und der KI-Risk-Factor behandelt vor allem Risiken des eigenen KI-Einsatzes, nicht eine konkrete Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells.

View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We deploy AI and other emerging technologies in various facets of our operations and we continue to explore the development and use of AI technologies. We have also entered into, and may continue to enter into, partnerships and collaborations relating to the use of AI technology to aid in drug discovery and other efforts."

Wir setzen KI und andere aufkommende Technologien in verschiedenen Bereichen unseres Betriebs ein und prüfen weiterhin die Entwicklung und Nutzung von KI-Technologien. Wir sind zudem Partnerschaften und Kooperationen zur Nutzung von KI-Technologie eingegangen — und werden das möglicherweise weiter tun —, um die Wirkstoffforschung und andere Vorhaben zu unterstützen.

10-K · 2026-02-12 · View SEC filing

„To support anticipated demand for our current and prospective products and further other business initiatives, we have expanded relationships with contract manufacturing organizations, entities supporting consumer directed access channels, artificial intelligence vendors, and other third parties in recent periods."

Um die erwartete Nachfrage nach unseren aktuellen und künftigen Produkten zu bedienen und weitere Geschäftsinitiativen voranzubringen, haben wir in den letzten Perioden die Beziehungen zu Auftragsfertigern, Anbietern verbraucherorientierter Zugangskanäle, Anbietern künstlicher Intelligenz und anderen Dritten ausgeweitet.

10-K · 2026-02-12 · View SEC filing

„We deploy AI and other emerging technologies in various facets of our operations and we continue to explore further use cases for AI."

Wir setzen KI und andere aufkommende Technologien in verschiedenen Bereichen unseres Betriebs ein und prüfen weiterhin zusätzliche Einsatzfelder für KI.

10-K · 2025-02-19 · View SEC filing

Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-30 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2026-02-12 · 10-K 2025-02-19

Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built

Earnings calls

What the Earnings Calls Reveal

Across the ten calls from 2023-Q4 to 2026-Q1, Eli Lilly delivered on nearly everything within its own control: the first full-year 2024 guidance was beaten by 4 billion dollars, the first 2025 guidance by roughly 5 billion, all three incretin production targets were met, and both the filing and the US launch of orforglipron landed inside the promised window. Of nine datable commitments exactly one was missed and two are still running: the Medicare reimbursement of Zepbound for sleep apnea expected in 2024 at the time of approval did not arrive. That decision sat with the Part D plans, not with Lilly, and the delay was named openly in every call. The items that look like contradictions at first sight - the switch of the production yardstick, the margin line that was crossed, the disappearance of the heart-failure indication - each carry an explanation given in the transcripts.

Unremarkable promises largely kept 10 calls reviewed, 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026

Guidance and production targets met throughout

The first 2024 full-year guidance of 40.4 to 41.6 billion dollars (call 2023-Q4) was, by the company's own account in the call 2024-Q4, beaten by 4 billion; the first 2025 guidance of 58 to 61 billion (call 2024-Q4) ended at 65.2 billion according to the call 2025-Q4. The production targets were met every time as well: 1.5 times in the second half of 2024 (promised 2023-Q4, confirmed 2024-Q4), 1.6 times in the first half of 2025 (promised 2024-Q4, confirmed 2025-Q2) and 1.8 times for the second half of 2025 (promised 2025-Q2, confirmed 2025-Q4). In three years guidance was cut exactly once, in the call 2024-Q3, from 46.6 to 46.0 billion at the top end. Two suspicions do not survive checking. The switch of the yardstick from auto-injector capacity to saleable doses happened in the call 2023-Q4 right alongside the new target, was flagged explicitly there, and was explained in full when an analyst asked in the call 2024-Q1. And reporting the 1.8 times target on a full-year basis in the call 2025-Q4 rather than half-year is not a softening but the stricter test: because the first half of 2025 came in at only 1.6 times, a full-year figure above 1.8 times requires an even stronger second half.

Medicare access: the one missed expectation

In the call 2024-Q1 the responsible division president said reimbursement of Zepbound for sleep apnea by CMS and Medicare was expected at the time of approval. Approval came at the end of 2024; the reimbursement did not. In the call 2024-Q4 this became an expectation of first Medicare coverage in the second half of 2025, repeated almost word for word in the call 2025-Q1. This is the only clearly missed commitment in the whole period. Three things place it in context. The decision sat with the Part D plans, not with Lilly, and management set out the mechanism openly in the call 2024-Q4: CMS permits reimbursement, the plans have 180 days and decide for themselves. Nor did nothing happen: the call 2025-Q1 reported Medicaid states rising from 11 to 14, one of them specifically for sleep apnea, and in the call 2025-Q4 the division president reported rising utilisation in the Medicare sleep-apnea population. And the bridge programme from 1 July 2026 was not a stopgap uncovered only later: in the call 2026-Q1 the CEO said explicitly that everyone knew at signing it would be needed because the start falls mid-year, and that the extension through December 2027 had been agreed from the outset as a fallback should the Part D plans not opt in. The news in the call 2026-Q1 was therefore an extension of access, not a curtailment.

Heart failure: withdrawal explained openly

In the call 2024-Q2 Lilly reported the positive Phase III SUMMIT trial of tirzepatide in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. In the call 2024-Q3 the research chief announced a US filing before year end, and the call 2024-Q4 reported it as done - so the commitment was kept. The call 2025-Q1 brought the withdrawal, and Lilly reported it itself in the prepared remarks rather than only under questioning: the FDA required an additional confirmatory trial, while reviews in other countries continued. Asked about it, the research chief also explained why the topic then went quiet: every patient in the trial is already covered by the obesity indication, which makes another large outcomes trial hard to justify commercially. The absence of the indication from the calls 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1 therefore has a reason given on the record. The second charge does not hold either: in the call 2024-Q1 heart failure was named as a further Medicare lever only under the explicit condition of a positive readout and an approval. The approval did not come, so the condition fell away - no promise lapsed with it.

Margin above its own line, but explained

In the call 2023-Q4 Lilly combined three guidance lines (gross margin, research, sales and administration) into a single metric, called performance margin from the call 2025-Q1 onwards, and put it at 31 to 33 percent for 2024. In the call 2024-Q4, asked about sell-side estimates of 50 percent by the end of the decade, the CFO answered that high 40s or 50 percent was not a good way to drive sustainable growth and that the low 40s was the right balance. The metric then stood at 48.3 percent in the call 2025-Q3, 47.2 percent in the call 2025-Q4 and 50.0 percent in the call 2026-Q1. That is not a broken commitment: the remark was an undated answer to a question about the end of the decade, and its substance was the worry that margin might come at the expense of research. Precisely that did not happen. Every quarter the metric is explicitly attributed to revenue growth; in the call 2026-Q1 R&D spending rose 28 percent with 42 active Phase III programmes, and in the call 2025-Q4 the CFO explicitly guided to further rising R&D spend for 2026. Nor was it silent: in the call 2026-Q1 the CEO returned to long-term margin unprompted and said the company would not hesitate to invest where the projects are good. And gross margin did not disappear - the call 2023-Q4 explicitly put it at around 80 percent, and it has been reported in every call since.

Employer coverage: around 50 percent for two years

The share of US employers opting in to obesity medicine coverage was given as above 50 percent and modestly growing in the call 2024-Q2, north of 50 percent in the call 2024-Q4, and mid to high 50s for year-end 2024 in the call 2025-Q1. In the call 2025-Q2 an analyst asked directly whether coverage had been flat on a net basis since January 2024. The answer - an increase overall, but steady at 50 to 55 percent - confirms the premise of the question rather than dodging it. The call 2025-Q4 said explicitly on balance and stable, with some employers adding coverage and others removing it; the call 2026-Q1 said pretty steady around 50 percent. So the number has barely moved in two years. It is not, however, told as a story of progress: from the call 2025-Q2 onwards management describes the plateau that way itself and names the drop-offs alongside the additions.

Non-answers with reasons, trial figures labelled

On interim analyses of running trials Lilly points to its own policy of not commenting on interims - with a reason given in the call 2024-Q1: any comment risks unintentional unblinding of results. There is no permanent stonewall; in the call 2025-Q3 an analyst even put it to the company that it had spoken in some detail about the interim of the Alzheimer's prevention trial on two earlier calls. In the call 2025-Q1 no interim question was asked about that trial at all, but rather about event accrual - and it was answered at length: enrolment complete, event-driven endpoint, 2027 per the registry, possibly earlier. On the grey market for copied obesity drugs, management gives the reason in the call 2024-Q3 why no number follows: there is no reliable source for the size of that market. And the cardiovascular trial of tirzepatide was presented cleanly in the call 2025-Q2: the randomised result of 8 percent fewer events versus the comparator drug came first, and the 28 and 39 percent were explicitly labelled as a prespecified indirect comparison against a putative placebo drawn from two named studies - not as a retrospective match.

Management promises

  • 2023-Q4 — Production of saleable incretin doses in the second half of 2024 at least 1.5 times the second half of 2023. Reaffirmed every quarter of 2024 and reported as met in the call 2024-Q4. The yardstick was switched from auto-injector capacity to doses in the very call that set the target, and flagged explicitly there. kept
  • 2023-Q4 — 2024 revenue between 40.4 and 41.6 billion dollars. Reported in the call 2024-Q4 as 4 billion above the first guidance, despite the top end being cut in the call 2024-Q3. kept
  • 2024-Q1 — Zepbound will be reimbursed by CMS and Medicare for obstructive sleep apnea at the time of launch. Approval at the end of 2024, broad Medicare access only via the bridge programme from 1 July 2026. The decision sat with the Part D plans; Lilly set out the mechanism including the 180-day window in the call 2024-Q4, and partial progress in Medicaid and in Medicare sleep-apnea utilisation was reported during 2025. broken
  • 2024-Q3 — US filing for tirzepatide in heart failure before the end of 2024. The filing happened (call 2024-Q4). In the call 2025-Q1 Lilly withdrew it at the FDA's request and explained in the same call why the indication is not being pursued further. kept
  • 2024-Q4 — 2025 revenue between 58 and 61 billion dollars. Reported at 65.2 billion in the call 2025-Q4, well above the initial range; guidance was raised twice during 2025. kept
  • 2024-Q4 — First regulatory submission for orforglipron in obesity still in late 2025. Reported as submitted in the call 2025-Q4, in the US and in more than 40 other countries. kept
  • 2025-Q3 — US launch of orforglipron for the treatment of obesity in 2026. Approved in April 2026, broadly available in pharmacies from 9 April and sales-force promotion started on 17 April (call 2026-Q1). kept
  • 2025-Q1 — US filing for orforglipron in type 2 diabetes in the first half of 2026. Announced for late Q2 in the call 2026-Q1, and therefore inside the promised window. The required ACHIEVE-4 trial has read out positively. open
  • 2025-Q4 — Medicare access to obesity medicines with a 50 dollar out-of-pocket cost no later than 1 July 2026. Confirmed in the call 2026-Q1 and extended through December 2027, but not yet in effect as of the review date. According to the CEO the extension had been agreed from the outset as a fallback should the Part D plans not opt in. open

Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1.

Growth

Growth Score

Ten checks against the annual reports — each one passed counts a point.

8 of 10 Growth gem
  • Revenue grows by more than 15% a year over three years 31.7%
  • More than 10% revenue growth is expected for the coming year 15.3%
  • Share count grows by less than 3% a year -1.9%
  • Revenue growth plus cash-flow margin add up to at least 40 ("Rule of 40") 58.5%
  • Gross margin at 40% or higher and without meaningful erosion 83.8%
  • Goodwill from acquisitions does not grow faster than revenue 5.2%
  • Net debt below twice EBITDA 1.3 x EBITDA
  • Operating cash flow covers the profits of the last three years -6,598 m
  • Return on capital at 15% or higher, or up versus two years ago 38.4%
  • Insiders hold at least 10% or are net buyers 0.2%

A criterion without figures counts neither as passed nor as failed; a score is only produced from 7 judgeable criteria upwards. Source: fundamental data. All ten criteria in detail

Quality check

AAQS

10/10 Quality stock

The AAQS (AlleAktien Quality Score) checks 10 quality criteria on growth, profitability, and balance-sheet strength — per the methodology developed and published by AlleAktien, calculated by us from our own fundamental data. A stock counts as a quality stock from 9 out of 10 points. Where a company has a shorter listing history, we calculate over the fiscal years available (at least five).

  • Sales growth 10Y > 5% 13.3%
  • Exp. sales growth 3Y > 5% 24.9%
  • EBIT growth 10Y > 5% 25.4%
  • Exp. EBIT growth 3Y > 5% 43.4%
  • Net debt < 4x EBIT 1.2x
  • EBIT positive, 10Y straight 10
  • Max. EBIT decline < 50% 0.4%
  • Return on equity > 15% 146.2%
  • ROCE > 15% 38.4%
  • Expected return > 10% 44.6%

View stocks with the full AAQS score · Read the methodology at AlleAktien

Source: fundamental data

Insiders

Insider Transactions

Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.

Insider Transactions
Date Person Role Type Shares Price Value
Sep 9, 2026 Seymour Melissa EVP, Global Quality Other 12 0.00 –
Sep 2, 2026 Dozier Eric EVP, Chief People Officer Other 216 0.00 –
Sep 2, 2026 Hernandez Edgardo EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations Other 13 0.00 –
Aug 17, 2026 Jonsson Patrik EVP & President, LLY Int'l Sell 6,500 1,175.10 7,638,150
Aug 17, 2026 Alvarez Ralph Director Other 10 1,183.16 11,832
Aug 17, 2026 Sulzberger Gabrielle Director Other 4 1,183.16 4,733
Aug 17, 2026 Luciano Juan R Director Other 13 1,183.16 15,381
Aug 17, 2026 Fyrwald J Erik Director Other 8 1,183.16 9,465
Aug 10, 2026 Zakrowski Donald A SVP, Finance, & CAO Sell 2,000 1,185.01 2,370,020
Aug 7, 2026 Hakim Anat EVP, GC & Secretary Sell 5,000 1,190.00 5,950,000

View all insider transactions →

The company

About the Company

Eli Lilly and Company erforscht, entwickelt, fertigt und vermarktet humanmedizinische Arzneimittel in den USA, Europa, China, Japan und international. Das Unternehmen bietet kardiometabolische Produkte an, darunter Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200 und weitere.

Employees
50,000
Headquarters
Indianapolis, IN
Address
Lilly Corporate Center, 46285 Indianapolis, United States
Phone
317 276 2000
Website
lilly.com
IPO Date
01/13/1978
ISIN
US5324571083
Stock Split
2:1 on 10/16/1997
Stock Split
2:1 on 12/21/1995
Stock Split
2:1 on 05/01/1989

Management

Management
Name Title Birth Year
David A. Ricks Chairman, President & CEO 1968
Lucas E. Montarce Executive VP & CFO 1977
Daniel M. Skovronsky M.D., Ph.D. Chief Scientific & Product Officer and President of Lilly Research Laboratories 1973
Anat Hakim J.D. Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary 1969
Jacob S. Van Naarden Executive VP, President of Lilly Oncology & Head of Corporate Business Development 1985
Donald A. Zakrowski Senior VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer –
Diogo Rau Executive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer 1975
Michael Czapar Senior Vice President of Investor Relations –
Eric Dozier Executive VP & Chief People Officer 1967
Ilya Yuffa Executive VP and President of Lilly USA & Global Customer Capabilities 1975

Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.

Filings

Company Filings (8-K)

An 8-K is the filing a US company must use to disclose material events immediately — takeovers, changes at the top, major contracts or payment troubles, for instance. The links open the original document at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • 08/05/2026 ELI LILLY & Co (LLY): Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements and Exhibits SEC ↗

Data as of: September 17, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)

Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.

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