Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
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symbol.quality_heading
Business model, numbers and balance sheet hold up to our review. Whether the current price supports an entry is a separate question — it hangs on the price, not on the company.
The substance is real: a duopoly position in the biggest new drug market, triple-digit tirzepatide growth, Foundayo as a second engine, Piotroski 8 of 9 — whoever holds the stock holds one of the best businesses in the world and has little reason to panic. To buy more at a P/E of 43 and a P/B of 32, however, you have to believe that volume growth will overcompensate politically depressed prices for many more years and that the one-molecule cluster gets broadened in time; whoever does not want to make that bet waits for cheaper entries or for evidence — say, the first Medicare quarters from summer 2026 and the Foundayo launch. The decision is yours.
symbol.quality_note
Eli Lilly is the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world: $65.2 billion in revenue in 2025 (plus 45 percent), $20.6 billion in net income, and another plus 56 percent in the first quarter of 2026 — carried by the weight-loss and diabetes drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Our value scanner built on Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula lists the stock among its hits. We read the annual report (10-K) and the latest quarterly report (10-Q): both blockbusters are one and the same compound — tirzepatide, lately 65 percent of revenue —, the U.S. government is already setting prices for the first Lilly products, and the patent clock is ticking at the predecessor Trulicity. Not investment advice — just a look at how much weight a single domino can carry.
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Stock Watch
This analysis is as of July 15, 2026. Stock Watch will tell you what's changed at LLY since then.
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Appears in These Scanners
This stock currently matches 10 of our scanner strategies — each hit links to the scanner.
Only genuine hits from verified scanners count; pure ranking metrics (P/E, P/S, and similar, which just sort the whole universe) don't count as a hit. View all scanners
Trading Day
Key levels of the most recently completed trading day — not a live quote.
52-Week Range
Current price 1,148.80 $ — 86% of the range above the low.
Lowest and highest closing price over the last 52 weeks. The marker shows where the current price sits within that range: close to the high speaks for strength, close to the low for weakness.
Basics
Performance
Technical Indicators
Calculated from the price history · as of 08/03/2026
Valuation
Profitability
Balance Sheet & Safety
Growth
Dividend
Quality & Screener
AI Rating
Uses AIEli Lilly setzt KI nach eigenen SEC-Angaben operativ in vielen Unternehmensbereichen ein und ist Partnerschaften zur KI-gestützten Wirkstoffforschung eingegangen; zudem hat der Konzern die Beziehungen zu KI-Anbietern ausgeweitet und berichtet über erhebliche eigene KI-Investitionen. KI-Produkte oder -Dienste sind aber keine Umsatzquelle — die Erlöse stammen aus Arzneimitteln —, und der KI-Risk-Factor behandelt vor allem Risiken des eigenen KI-Einsatzes, nicht eine konkrete Bedrohung des Geschäftsmodells.
View the full file — quotes, sources, reviewed filings
„We deploy AI and other emerging technologies in various facets of our operations and we continue to explore the development and use of AI technologies. We have also entered into, and may continue to enter into, partnerships and collaborations relating to the use of AI technology to aid in drug discovery and other efforts."
Wir setzen KI und andere aufkommende Technologien in verschiedenen Bereichen unseres Betriebs ein und prüfen weiterhin die Entwicklung und Nutzung von KI-Technologien. Wir sind zudem Partnerschaften und Kooperationen zur Nutzung von KI-Technologie eingegangen — und werden das möglicherweise weiter tun —, um die Wirkstoffforschung und andere Vorhaben zu unterstützen.
„To support anticipated demand for our current and prospective products and further other business initiatives, we have expanded relationships with contract manufacturing organizations, entities supporting consumer directed access channels, artificial intelligence vendors, and other third parties in recent periods."
Um die erwartete Nachfrage nach unseren aktuellen und künftigen Produkten zu bedienen und weitere Geschäftsinitiativen voranzubringen, haben wir in den letzten Perioden die Beziehungen zu Auftragsfertigern, Anbietern verbraucherorientierter Zugangskanäle, Anbietern künstlicher Intelligenz und anderen Dritten ausgeweitet.
„We deploy AI and other emerging technologies in various facets of our operations and we continue to explore further use cases for AI."
Wir setzen KI und andere aufkommende Technologien in verschiedenen Bereichen unseres Betriebs ein und prüfen weiterhin zusätzliche Einsatzfelder für KI.
Filings Reviewed: 10-Q 2026-04-30 · 10-Q 2025-10-30 · 10-Q 2025-08-07 · 10-Q 2025-05-01 · 10-K 2026-02-12 · 10-K 2025-02-19
Rated on July 14, 2026 · How the Rating Is Built
What the Earnings Calls Reveal
Unremarkable promises largely keptAcross the ten calls from 2023-Q4 to 2026-Q1, Eli Lilly delivered on nearly everything within its own control: the first full-year 2024 guidance was beaten by 4 billion dollars, the first 2025 guidance by roughly 5 billion, all three incretin production targets were met, and both the filing and the US launch of orforglipron landed inside the promised window. Of nine datable commitments exactly one was missed and two are still running: the Medicare reimbursement of Zepbound for sleep apnea expected in 2024 at the time of approval did not arrive. That decision sat with the Part D plans, not with Lilly, and the delay was named openly in every call. The items that look like contradictions at first sight - the switch of the production yardstick, the margin line that was crossed, the disappearance of the heart-failure indication - each carry an explanation given in the transcripts.
10 calls reviewed, 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1 · As of August 2, 2026
Guidance and production targets met throughout
The first 2024 full-year guidance of 40.4 to 41.6 billion dollars (call 2023-Q4) was, by the company's own account in the call 2024-Q4, beaten by 4 billion; the first 2025 guidance of 58 to 61 billion (call 2024-Q4) ended at 65.2 billion according to the call 2025-Q4. The production targets were met every time as well: 1.5 times in the second half of 2024 (promised 2023-Q4, confirmed 2024-Q4), 1.6 times in the first half of 2025 (promised 2024-Q4, confirmed 2025-Q2) and 1.8 times for the second half of 2025 (promised 2025-Q2, confirmed 2025-Q4). In three years guidance was cut exactly once, in the call 2024-Q3, from 46.6 to 46.0 billion at the top end. Two suspicions do not survive checking. The switch of the yardstick from auto-injector capacity to saleable doses happened in the call 2023-Q4 right alongside the new target, was flagged explicitly there, and was explained in full when an analyst asked in the call 2024-Q1. And reporting the 1.8 times target on a full-year basis in the call 2025-Q4 rather than half-year is not a softening but the stricter test: because the first half of 2025 came in at only 1.6 times, a full-year figure above 1.8 times requires an even stronger second half.
Medicare access: the one missed expectation
In the call 2024-Q1 the responsible division president said reimbursement of Zepbound for sleep apnea by CMS and Medicare was expected at the time of approval. Approval came at the end of 2024; the reimbursement did not. In the call 2024-Q4 this became an expectation of first Medicare coverage in the second half of 2025, repeated almost word for word in the call 2025-Q1. This is the only clearly missed commitment in the whole period. Three things place it in context. The decision sat with the Part D plans, not with Lilly, and management set out the mechanism openly in the call 2024-Q4: CMS permits reimbursement, the plans have 180 days and decide for themselves. Nor did nothing happen: the call 2025-Q1 reported Medicaid states rising from 11 to 14, one of them specifically for sleep apnea, and in the call 2025-Q4 the division president reported rising utilisation in the Medicare sleep-apnea population. And the bridge programme from 1 July 2026 was not a stopgap uncovered only later: in the call 2026-Q1 the CEO said explicitly that everyone knew at signing it would be needed because the start falls mid-year, and that the extension through December 2027 had been agreed from the outset as a fallback should the Part D plans not opt in. The news in the call 2026-Q1 was therefore an extension of access, not a curtailment.
Heart failure: withdrawal explained openly
In the call 2024-Q2 Lilly reported the positive Phase III SUMMIT trial of tirzepatide in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. In the call 2024-Q3 the research chief announced a US filing before year end, and the call 2024-Q4 reported it as done - so the commitment was kept. The call 2025-Q1 brought the withdrawal, and Lilly reported it itself in the prepared remarks rather than only under questioning: the FDA required an additional confirmatory trial, while reviews in other countries continued. Asked about it, the research chief also explained why the topic then went quiet: every patient in the trial is already covered by the obesity indication, which makes another large outcomes trial hard to justify commercially. The absence of the indication from the calls 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1 therefore has a reason given on the record. The second charge does not hold either: in the call 2024-Q1 heart failure was named as a further Medicare lever only under the explicit condition of a positive readout and an approval. The approval did not come, so the condition fell away - no promise lapsed with it.
Margin above its own line, but explained
In the call 2023-Q4 Lilly combined three guidance lines (gross margin, research, sales and administration) into a single metric, called performance margin from the call 2025-Q1 onwards, and put it at 31 to 33 percent for 2024. In the call 2024-Q4, asked about sell-side estimates of 50 percent by the end of the decade, the CFO answered that high 40s or 50 percent was not a good way to drive sustainable growth and that the low 40s was the right balance. The metric then stood at 48.3 percent in the call 2025-Q3, 47.2 percent in the call 2025-Q4 and 50.0 percent in the call 2026-Q1. That is not a broken commitment: the remark was an undated answer to a question about the end of the decade, and its substance was the worry that margin might come at the expense of research. Precisely that did not happen. Every quarter the metric is explicitly attributed to revenue growth; in the call 2026-Q1 R&D spending rose 28 percent with 42 active Phase III programmes, and in the call 2025-Q4 the CFO explicitly guided to further rising R&D spend for 2026. Nor was it silent: in the call 2026-Q1 the CEO returned to long-term margin unprompted and said the company would not hesitate to invest where the projects are good. And gross margin did not disappear - the call 2023-Q4 explicitly put it at around 80 percent, and it has been reported in every call since.
Employer coverage: around 50 percent for two years
The share of US employers opting in to obesity medicine coverage was given as above 50 percent and modestly growing in the call 2024-Q2, north of 50 percent in the call 2024-Q4, and mid to high 50s for year-end 2024 in the call 2025-Q1. In the call 2025-Q2 an analyst asked directly whether coverage had been flat on a net basis since January 2024. The answer - an increase overall, but steady at 50 to 55 percent - confirms the premise of the question rather than dodging it. The call 2025-Q4 said explicitly on balance and stable, with some employers adding coverage and others removing it; the call 2026-Q1 said pretty steady around 50 percent. So the number has barely moved in two years. It is not, however, told as a story of progress: from the call 2025-Q2 onwards management describes the plateau that way itself and names the drop-offs alongside the additions.
Non-answers with reasons, trial figures labelled
On interim analyses of running trials Lilly points to its own policy of not commenting on interims - with a reason given in the call 2024-Q1: any comment risks unintentional unblinding of results. There is no permanent stonewall; in the call 2025-Q3 an analyst even put it to the company that it had spoken in some detail about the interim of the Alzheimer's prevention trial on two earlier calls. In the call 2025-Q1 no interim question was asked about that trial at all, but rather about event accrual - and it was answered at length: enrolment complete, event-driven endpoint, 2027 per the registry, possibly earlier. On the grey market for copied obesity drugs, management gives the reason in the call 2024-Q3 why no number follows: there is no reliable source for the size of that market. And the cardiovascular trial of tirzepatide was presented cleanly in the call 2025-Q2: the randomised result of 8 percent fewer events versus the comparator drug came first, and the 28 and 39 percent were explicitly labelled as a prespecified indirect comparison against a putative placebo drawn from two named studies - not as a retrospective match.
Management promises
-
2023-Q4 kept
Production of saleable incretin doses in the second half of 2024 at least 1.5 times the second half of 2023.
Reaffirmed every quarter of 2024 and reported as met in the call 2024-Q4. The yardstick was switched from auto-injector capacity to doses in the very call that set the target, and flagged explicitly there.
-
2023-Q4 kept
2024 revenue between 40.4 and 41.6 billion dollars.
Reported in the call 2024-Q4 as 4 billion above the first guidance, despite the top end being cut in the call 2024-Q3.
-
2024-Q1 broken
Zepbound will be reimbursed by CMS and Medicare for obstructive sleep apnea at the time of launch.
Approval at the end of 2024, broad Medicare access only via the bridge programme from 1 July 2026. The decision sat with the Part D plans; Lilly set out the mechanism including the 180-day window in the call 2024-Q4, and partial progress in Medicaid and in Medicare sleep-apnea utilisation was reported during 2025.
-
2024-Q3 kept
US filing for tirzepatide in heart failure before the end of 2024.
The filing happened (call 2024-Q4). In the call 2025-Q1 Lilly withdrew it at the FDA's request and explained in the same call why the indication is not being pursued further.
-
2024-Q4 kept
2025 revenue between 58 and 61 billion dollars.
Reported at 65.2 billion in the call 2025-Q4, well above the initial range; guidance was raised twice during 2025.
-
2024-Q4 kept
First regulatory submission for orforglipron in obesity still in late 2025.
Reported as submitted in the call 2025-Q4, in the US and in more than 40 other countries.
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2025-Q3 kept
US launch of orforglipron for the treatment of obesity in 2026.
Approved in April 2026, broadly available in pharmacies from 9 April and sales-force promotion started on 17 April (call 2026-Q1).
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2025-Q1 open
US filing for orforglipron in type 2 diabetes in the first half of 2026.
Announced for late Q2 in the call 2026-Q1, and therefore inside the promised window. The required ACHIEVE-4 trial has read out positively.
-
2025-Q4 open
Medicare access to obesity medicines with a 50 dollar out-of-pocket cost no later than 1 July 2026.
Confirmed in the call 2026-Q1 and extended through December 2027, but not yet in effect as of the review date. According to the CEO the extension had been agreed from the outset as a fallback should the Part D plans not opt in.
Based on public earnings call transcripts. Reviewed: 10 transcripts 2023-Q4 through 2026-Q1.
Highlighted are things our editorial team noticed: green = stands out as strong, red = deserves a closer look. No single metric is a verdict on its own — always read it in context.
Analysts & Price Target
The price target sits 11.2% above the current price.
- Consensus
- Sell
- Analyst Ratings
- 31
Combined picture of the price targets and recommendations of every analyst covering the stock. Price targets are expectations for the next 12 months, not promises — and they often follow the price rather than predict it.
Estimates by Fiscal Year
| Fiscal Year | EPS Estimate ($) | EPS Range ($) | Revenue Estimate ($M) | Expected Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2026 | 34.53 | 24.44 – 37.63 | 85,394 | 42.6% | 25 |
| 12/31/2027 | 45.08 | 40.17 – 49.75 | 99,088 | 30.6% | 24 |
Average of the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years. The range shows how far the most optimistic and the most cautious estimate sit apart — the wider it is, the less certain the expectation.
Next Reporting Date
- Expected Earnings per Share
- 6.71 $
Expected date of the next quarterly or annual figures. Dates do shift occasionally — only the invitation issued by the company is binding.
Revenue & Profit
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Margins
Per Share
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Source: fundamental data
Quarterly Figures
| Quarter | EPS (Earnings Per Share) | EPS YoY (%) | Sales ($M) | Sales YoY (%) | Net Margin (%) | OCF ($M) | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: Q4 | 4.88 | 101.60 | 13,533 | 44.70 | 32.60 | 2,474 | 727 |
| 2025: Q1 | 3.06 | 23.50 | 12,729 | 45.20 | 21.70 | 1,666 | -1,601 |
| 2025: Q2 | 6.29 | 91.70 | 15,558 | 37.60 | 36.40 | 3,087 | 1,283 |
| 2025: Q3 | 6.21 | 479.30 | 17,601 | 53.90 | 31.70 | 8,836 | 8,612 |
| 2025: Q4 | 7.39 | 51.30 | 19,292 | 42.60 | 34.40 | 3,225 | 678 |
| 2026: Q1 | 8.26 | 169.40 | 19,799 | 55.50 | 37.40 | 5,333 | 3,007 |
- EPS (Earnings Per Share):
- Quarterly profit divided by the total share count — how much of the profit works out to a single share.
- YoY (Year over Year):
- Change versus the same quarter a year ago — this is how you compare without seasonal distortion (e.g. the holiday shopping season).
- Sales:
- All revenue for the quarter, before any costs are deducted — the top line of the income statement.
- Net Margin:
- What percentage of sales is left over as profit in the end. Negative means the company is posting a loss.
- OCF (Operating Cash Flow):
- The cash that actually flows into the till from the core business during the quarter — harder to dress up than book profit.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow):
- Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures — the money that's genuinely free to use, say for paying down debt, buybacks, or dividends.
Annual Figures
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBIT ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Operating Cash Flow ($M) | Equity ($M) | Total Assets ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,222 | 3,871 | 2,738 | 2.49 | 4,851 | 14,008 | 38,806 |
| 2017 | 19,974 | 4,250 | -204 | -0.19 | 5,616 | 11,592 | 44,981 |
| 2018 | 21,493 | 6,026 | 3,232 | 3.13 | 5,525 | 10,909 | 43,908 |
| 2019 | 22,320 | 5,999 | 8,318 | 8.69 | 4,837 | 2,607 | 39,286 |
| 2020 | 24,540 | 7,211 | 6,194 | 6.47 | 6,500 | 5,642 | 46,633 |
| 2021 | 28,318 | 7,933 | 5,582 | 5.85 | 7,261 | 8,979 | 48,806 |
| 2022 | 28,541 | 8,653 | 6,245 | 6.57 | 7,084 | 10,650 | 49,490 |
| 2023 | 34,124 | 10,787 | 5,240 | 5.80 | 4,240 | 10,772 | 64,006 |
| 2024 | 45,043 | 17,502 | 10,590 | 11.71 | 8,818 | 14,192 | 78,715 |
| 2025 | 65,179 | 29,696 | 20,638 | 22.98 | 16,813 | 26,535 | 112,476 |
Fiscal years from the audited annual reports, oldest first. EBIT is the operating profit before interest and taxes; total assets are everything the company owns.
Assessment: Opportunities & Risks
Revenue plus 45 percent in 2025 ($65.2 billion), plus 56 percent in Q1 2026 — the fastest growth in big pharma. The pipeline delivers: Foundayo (the first weight-loss pill) approved in April 2026, behind it retatrutide, eloralintide and broad indication expansions for tirzepatide (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
83 percent gross margin, EBIT margin about 49 percent, $16.8 billion operating cash flow in 2025, Piotroski 8 of 9, Altman-Z 7.3, fundamental rating A — the value-scanner hit rests on real earning power (data as of July 8, 2026).
Mounjaro and Zepbound are the same compound (tirzepatide) and stood for 56 percent of revenue in 2025 and 65 percent in Q1 2026; the top-6 products for 82 percent. The company's own risk factor warns of "significant and sudden" stock-price declines on bad news about these products (10-K 2025).
Government-set prices hit Jardiance from 2026 (minus 66 percent), Trulicity and Verzenio from 2028 — more products expected per Lilly, with accelerated revenue erosion before exclusivities expire. Trulicity loses its U.S. compound patent in 2027 and shows live how fast revenues fall ($7.1 to $4.3 billion since 2023); tirzepatide's U.S. data exclusivity ends in 2027, and copies remain a running theme (10-K 2025; 10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
About $1,006 billion in market value, P/E about 43, P/B about 32 (data as of July 8, 2026) — on the 2027 consensus estimate the P/E falls to about 25, provided growth holds. Debt rose within five quarters from $33.6 to $43.4 billion; the dividend (yield ~0.6 percent) and buybacks run in parallel with the giant factory build-out.
Eli Lilly is the rare case in which the halo effect is almost right: the best growth in big pharma, outstanding margins, a delivering pipeline and balance-sheet grades straight from the textbook. But the trillion-dollar valuation prices in a decade of continued success — and the company's own mandatory filings document three structural dents: 65 percent of revenue hangs on a single molecule, the government is already setting prices for the first Lilly products and expressly expects to select more, and the patent clock is running — audibly at Trulicity, until 2036 at tirzepatide, with U.S. data exclusivity only until 2027. Quality is not the question here; the price of that quality is. Not investment advice.
- Price and valuation figures dated July 8, 2026 (about $1,128 per share, about $1,006 billion in market value); analyses are evergreen, daily prices are not a buy argument.
- The Q1 2026 figures ($19.8 billion in revenue, $7.4 billion in net income) are three-month values; growth rates refer to the prior-year quarter. The Mounjaro/Zepbound U.S. revenue for Q1 2026 also contains a favorable one-off effect from adjusted rebate estimates (10-Q as of March 31, 2026).
- Analyst estimates (about $36 and $44 in adjusted earnings per share for 2026 and 2027; 31 professionals, consensus toward "buy") are forecasts, not facts — and with politically negotiated prices, especially prone to revision.
- Scanner membership: local evaluation with data as of July 8, 2026 (Greenblatt, Levermann, Zweig, EBIT-margin ranking, Altman-Z); checked live on July 14, 2026 — Greenblatt confirmed, additionally dividend and growth scanners.
About the Company
Eli Lilly and Company erforscht, entwickelt, fertigt und vermarktet humanmedizinische Arzneimittel in den USA, Europa, China, Japan und international. Das Unternehmen bietet kardiometabolische Produkte an, darunter Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200 und weitere.
| Employees | 50,000 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Indianapolis, IN |
| Address | Lilly Corporate Center, 46285 Indianapolis, United States |
| Phone | 317 276 2000 |
| Website | lilly.com |
| IPO Date | 13. Jan 1978 |
| ISIN | US5324571083 |
| Stock Split | 2:1 on 10/16/1997 |
Management
| Name | Title | Birth Year |
|---|---|---|
| David A. Ricks | Chairman & CEO | 1968 |
| Lucas E. Montarce | Executive VP & CFO | 1977 |
| Daniel M. Skovronsky M.D., Ph.D. | Chief Scientific & Product Officer and President of Lilly Research Laboratories | 1974 |
| Anat Hakim J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 1969 |
| Jacob S. Van Naarden | Executive VP, President of Lilly Oncology & Head of Corporate Business Development | 1985 |
| Donald A. Zakrowski | Senior VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer | – |
| Diogo Rau | Executive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer | 1975 |
| Michael Czapar | Director of Investor Relations | – |
| Eric Dozier | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 1967 |
| Ilya Yuffa | Executive VP and President of Lilly USA & Global Customer Capabilities | 1975 |
Executives per the latest required filings; titles kept in their original language. Source: fundamental data.
Insider Transactions
| Date | Person | Role | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20. Jul 2026 | Alvarez Ralph | Director | Other | 11 | 1,146.90 | 12,616 |
| 20. Jul 2026 | Sulzberger Gabrielle | Director | Other | 4 | 1,146.90 | 4,588 |
| 20. Jul 2026 | Luciano Juan R | Director | Other | 14 | 1,146.90 | 16,057 |
| 20. Jul 2026 | Fyrwald J Erik | Director | Other | 9 | 1,146.90 | 10,322 |
Reportable transactions by officers and major shareholders from SEC Form 4 filings. "Other" includes things like stock grants and option exercises without a buy/sell character.
View all insider transactions →Chart
Interactive price chart (TradingView).
Data as of: July 31, 2026 · Source: fundamental data & SEC filings (annual and quarterly reports, 10-K/10-Q)
Note: pure fact-based analysis, not investment advice and not a solicitation to buy or sell. All figures without guarantee.